Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

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allcat
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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by allcat » Sun May 10, 2020 6:01 am

onceacat wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 10:27 pm
BleedingBLue wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 1:13 pm
onceacat wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 11:24 pm
BleedingBLue wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 10:58 pm
Mark Emmett said tonight that unless college campuses open up for the fall semester, fall sports are unlikely to be played.
MSU is telling its professors to be prepared for cuts in the neighborhood of 50% of class loads. There are some underlying structural issues with the universities that are somewhat tangential to sports but still relevant:

1) Montana state funding (from Helena) plus in-state tuition doesn't cover the cost of educating an in-state student.
2) MSU is required to admit all in-state students who meet the minimum entry requirements
3) Ergo, every year there is a budget shortfall that needs to be covered by out-of-state students
4) Are you going to pay $25k/year (in tuition only, plus room and board) to send your kids to Bozeman to take on-line classes? I think we can say with reasonable confidence that dorms aren't going to open this fall...so what parent in their right mind is going to pay $25k out of state to have their kids Zoom with MSU professors?
5) Same logic applies in-sate. Why send your kids to pay Bozeman rent at $700/bedroom to take on-line classes?
6) Who buys end zone tickets, then?
7) Theres going to be a 14 day quarantine for in-state travel well into summer...maybe a 50-50 shot its gone by fall. Are we just going to exempt sports?

Montana has really done a good job with this. But the rest of the country, including nearby states like South Dakota & Colorado are still near disaster zones. Can MSU & Utah play safely? Probably. Montana & Utah have done well

Can Northern Colorado or NAU or South Dakota play safely? or even have students back on campus in 4 months? Or travel a team? No way. And its not even close.

I guess what I'm getting at is that MSU & UM and maybe another half dozen schools across the country could pull off a football game in 4 months. But there's no way on God's green earth that the SEC is playing football in September. And if the SEC isn't playing, you can guess what that means for everyone else...
In my opinion it means college football is over as we know it. I would be willing to bet that at least a quarter of FCS programs are no more if there isn't a season. A lot of FCS schools have crappy attendance anyway and giving out 63 scholarships with zero football revenue isn't going to happen. I know some would argue that kids just don't get scholarships in that case for this year, but to that I would say good luck getting most of your team to come back in 2021. I think a large amount of Group of 5 schools may have the same issue.

Although no season would suck it would 100% benefit the power 5, and possibly the AAC. It would provide an opportunity for them to become their own "NCAA" for football and it has already been talked about. I wouldn't be surprised if the FCS and the group of 5 become their own division, or are the only DI members still in the NCAA for football.
Ugh. I hadn't even thought of that, but you make a really good point.

The one thing is that the power 5 conferences are likely to be the hardest hit in the fall. If MSU is looking at a 60% decrease in freshman enrollment next year, in a state that 100% beat the pandemic, what do the numbers look like in a place like Georgia or Florida that are "re-opening" despite never closing in the first place...How many freshmen show up to Athens or Tallahassee this fall...

I can imagine a case where places that have the Covid under control in the fall (Montana, maybe the Northeast, maybe Colorado, maybe Washington & California) put together a partial season while the SEC and Big 10 & Big 12 cancel their seasons...but I wouldn't bet more than a nice bottle of bourbon on it.

The only thing that's really predictable about how this plays out is how unpredictable its going to be.
What do these kids do if they don't go to school? The economy is going to take quite a while to recover. Do they just sit at home and play video games?


Now sorry for caring about Cat/griz too much. I've been properly chastised by the coach of the other team. :-^

BleedingBLue
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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by BleedingBLue » Sun May 10, 2020 8:11 am

onceacat wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 10:27 pm
BleedingBLue wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 1:13 pm
onceacat wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 11:24 pm
BleedingBLue wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 10:58 pm
Mark Emmett said tonight that unless college campuses open up for the fall semester, fall sports are unlikely to be played.
MSU is telling its professors to be prepared for cuts in the neighborhood of 50% of class loads. There are some underlying structural issues with the universities that are somewhat tangential to sports but still relevant:

1) Montana state funding (from Helena) plus in-state tuition doesn't cover the cost of educating an in-state student.
2) MSU is required to admit all in-state students who meet the minimum entry requirements
3) Ergo, every year there is a budget shortfall that needs to be covered by out-of-state students
4) Are you going to pay $25k/year (in tuition only, plus room and board) to send your kids to Bozeman to take on-line classes? I think we can say with reasonable confidence that dorms aren't going to open this fall...so what parent in their right mind is going to pay $25k out of state to have their kids Zoom with MSU professors?
5) Same logic applies in-sate. Why send your kids to pay Bozeman rent at $700/bedroom to take on-line classes?
6) Who buys end zone tickets, then?
7) Theres going to be a 14 day quarantine for in-state travel well into summer...maybe a 50-50 shot its gone by fall. Are we just going to exempt sports?

Montana has really done a good job with this. But the rest of the country, including nearby states like South Dakota & Colorado are still near disaster zones. Can MSU & Utah play safely? Probably. Montana & Utah have done well

Can Northern Colorado or NAU or South Dakota play safely? or even have students back on campus in 4 months? Or travel a team? No way. And its not even close.

I guess what I'm getting at is that MSU & UM and maybe another half dozen schools across the country could pull off a football game in 4 months. But there's no way on God's green earth that the SEC is playing football in September. And if the SEC isn't playing, you can guess what that means for everyone else...
In my opinion it means college football is over as we know it. I would be willing to bet that at least a quarter of FCS programs are no more if there isn't a season. A lot of FCS schools have crappy attendance anyway and giving out 63 scholarships with zero football revenue isn't going to happen. I know some would argue that kids just don't get scholarships in that case for this year, but to that I would say good luck getting most of your team to come back in 2021. I think a large amount of Group of 5 schools may have the same issue.

Although no season would suck it would 100% benefit the power 5, and possibly the AAC. It would provide an opportunity for them to become their own "NCAA" for football and it has already been talked about. I wouldn't be surprised if the FCS and the group of 5 become their own division, or are the only DI members still in the NCAA for football.
Ugh. I hadn't even thought of that, but you make a really good point.

The one thing is that the power 5 conferences are likely to be the hardest hit in the fall. If MSU is looking at a 60% decrease in freshman enrollment next year, in a state that 100% beat the pandemic, what do the numbers look like in a place like Georgia or Florida that are "re-opening" despite never closing in the first place...How many freshmen show up to Athens or Tallahassee this fall...

I can imagine a case where places that have the Covid under control in the fall (Montana, maybe the Northeast, maybe Colorado, maybe Washington & California) put together a partial season while the SEC and Big 10 & Big 12 cancel their seasons...but I wouldn't bet more than a nice bottle of bourbon on it.

The only thing that's really predictable about how this plays out is how unpredictable its going to be.
If I'm an AD, President, Commissioner or something similar I'm starting up discussions now about a creative way to play out the season if some of my conference can't play. If a conference can only get 6 members to play the season maybe you play 3 teams twice in a home and home. The BSC and some of the larger FBS conferences might luck out in that regard because their membership is so large.

Redoing non conference scheduling might be an option as well. It's no different than the playoffs as far as not knowing exactly where you're going until the week before. Except in this case teams might have the whole summer to plan. I would bet we could still play Utah and Dixie State, so it may be as "simple" as finding a replacement for LIU.



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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by TomCat88 » Sun May 10, 2020 11:32 am

BleedingBLue wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 8:11 am
onceacat wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 10:27 pm
BleedingBLue wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 1:13 pm
onceacat wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 11:24 pm
BleedingBLue wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 10:58 pm
Mark Emmett said tonight that unless college campuses open up for the fall semester, fall sports are unlikely to be played.
MSU is telling its professors to be prepared for cuts in the neighborhood of 50% of class loads. There are some underlying structural issues with the universities that are somewhat tangential to sports but still relevant:

1) Montana state funding (from Helena) plus in-state tuition doesn't cover the cost of educating an in-state student.
2) MSU is required to admit all in-state students who meet the minimum entry requirements
3) Ergo, every year there is a budget shortfall that needs to be covered by out-of-state students
4) Are you going to pay $25k/year (in tuition only, plus room and board) to send your kids to Bozeman to take on-line classes? I think we can say with reasonable confidence that dorms aren't going to open this fall...so what parent in their right mind is going to pay $25k out of state to have their kids Zoom with MSU professors?
5) Same logic applies in-sate. Why send your kids to pay Bozeman rent at $700/bedroom to take on-line classes?
6) Who buys end zone tickets, then?
7) Theres going to be a 14 day quarantine for in-state travel well into summer...maybe a 50-50 shot its gone by fall. Are we just going to exempt sports?

Montana has really done a good job with this. But the rest of the country, including nearby states like South Dakota & Colorado are still near disaster zones. Can MSU & Utah play safely? Probably. Montana & Utah have done well

Can Northern Colorado or NAU or South Dakota play safely? or even have students back on campus in 4 months? Or travel a team? No way. And its not even close.

I guess what I'm getting at is that MSU & UM and maybe another half dozen schools across the country could pull off a football game in 4 months. But there's no way on God's green earth that the SEC is playing football in September. And if the SEC isn't playing, you can guess what that means for everyone else...
In my opinion it means college football is over as we know it. I would be willing to bet that at least a quarter of FCS programs are no more if there isn't a season. A lot of FCS schools have crappy attendance anyway and giving out 63 scholarships with zero football revenue isn't going to happen. I know some would argue that kids just don't get scholarships in that case for this year, but to that I would say good luck getting most of your team to come back in 2021. I think a large amount of Group of 5 schools may have the same issue.

Although no season would suck it would 100% benefit the power 5, and possibly the AAC. It would provide an opportunity for them to become their own "NCAA" for football and it has already been talked about. I wouldn't be surprised if the FCS and the group of 5 become their own division, or are the only DI members still in the NCAA for football.
Ugh. I hadn't even thought of that, but you make a really good point.

The one thing is that the power 5 conferences are likely to be the hardest hit in the fall. If MSU is looking at a 60% decrease in freshman enrollment next year, in a state that 100% beat the pandemic, what do the numbers look like in a place like Georgia or Florida that are "re-opening" despite never closing in the first place...How many freshmen show up to Athens or Tallahassee this fall...

I can imagine a case where places that have the Covid under control in the fall (Montana, maybe the Northeast, maybe Colorado, maybe Washington & California) put together a partial season while the SEC and Big 10 & Big 12 cancel their seasons...but I wouldn't bet more than a nice bottle of bourbon on it.

The only thing that's really predictable about how this plays out is how unpredictable its going to be.
If I'm an AD, President, Commissioner or something similar I'm starting up discussions now about a creative way to play out the season if some of my conference can't play. If a conference can only get 6 members to play the season maybe you play 3 teams twice in a home and home. The BSC and some of the larger FBS conferences might luck out in that regard because their membership is so large.

Redoing non conference scheduling might be an option as well. It's no different than the playoffs as far as not knowing exactly where you're going until the week before. Except in this case teams might have the whole summer to plan. I would bet we could still play Utah and Dixie State, so it may be as "simple" as finding a replacement for LIU.
Yes, there needs to be a backup plan for any scenario.

Worst case: play all the Montana-based Frontier teams at home and have a home-and-home with UM.

Idaho and Utah are doing good. I could see a schedule with those seven teams. I’d say they’re all probable right now.

Anyone know if all MSU’s athletes have been tested?


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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by catsrback76 » Sun May 10, 2020 10:33 pm




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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by bobcat92 » Tue May 12, 2020 7:16 pm

BleedingBLue wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 10:58 pm
Mark Emmett said tonight that unless college campuses open up for the fall semester, fall sports are unlikely to be played.
"The first serious warning of how major college sports might be impacted this fall by the coronavirus pandemic was sounded Tuesday when California State University system chancellor Timothy White announced that it will operate primarily with online instruction for the semester." https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/c ... 121272001/

UC Davis, Cal Poly, and Sac State won't be playing football this fall if this is the case.



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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by aucat » Tue May 12, 2020 7:37 pm

Okay, here's once solution: Have the Cats play the Griz ten times this season. The tickets get rotated around so the stadiums are never nor than about 30% full.

Hey, it IS called the BIG SKY CONFERENCE isn't it??



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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by onceacat » Tue May 12, 2020 10:04 pm

aucat wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 7:37 pm
Okay, here's once solution: Have the Cats play the Griz ten times this season. The tickets get rotated around so the stadiums are never nor than about 30% full.

Hey, it IS called the BIG SKY CONFERENCE isn't it??
That would be awesome!



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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by iaafan » Wed May 13, 2020 8:17 am

The time is now for MSU to start developing a set of backup plans. The nice thing about backup plans is they're ... backup plans. If things go back to normal, you can scrap them. It would be a shame if the BSC scraps the season or a number of teams on the MSU schedule scrap their seasons, but MSU and UM don't have anything in place to mitigate the loss.



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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by TomCat88 » Wed May 13, 2020 5:10 pm

iaafan wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 8:17 am
The time is now for MSU to start developing a set of backup plans. The nice thing about backup plans is they're ... backup plans. If things go back to normal, you can scrap them. It would be a shame if the BSC scraps the season or a number of teams on the MSU schedule scrap their seasons, but MSU and UM don't have anything in place to mitigate the loss.
I don’t know what kind of work it would take, but I hope MSU is looking into alternative schedules in some form. I wouldn’t wait for the BSC to say the season is a no-go.

If I was a state legislator, I’d be telling the BOR they better have something in place, because Montanans didn’t work hard to keep cases/million and deaths/million this low for nothing. There’s a lot of revenue to be lost if teams from the MUS don’t play their normal six (UM-MSU) or five (Western, Northern, Tech) home games.


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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by catsrback76 » Wed May 13, 2020 11:15 pm

TomCat88 wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 5:10 pm
iaafan wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 8:17 am
The time is now for MSU to start developing a set of backup plans. The nice thing about backup plans is they're ... backup plans. If things go back to normal, you can scrap them. It would be a shame if the BSC scraps the season or a number of teams on the MSU schedule scrap their seasons, but MSU and UM don't have anything in place to mitigate the loss.
I don’t know what kind of work it would take, but I hope MSU is looking into alternative schedules in some form. I wouldn’t wait for the BSC to say the season is a no-go.

If I was a state legislator, I’d be telling the BOR they better have something in place, because Montanans didn’t work hard to keep cases/million and deaths/million this low for nothing. There’s a lot of revenue to be lost if teams from the MUS don’t play their normal six (UM-MSU) or five (Western, Northern, Tech) home games.
Let's set up a MSU-UM 10 game season...and when we win 10 in a row we've essentially closed the "streak" gap in one season...win, win! 8) There's a lot of people who'd pay to go to those games and watch on tv! :D



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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by 77matcat » Thu May 14, 2020 7:15 am

I like the way CatsRBack thinks!!!!

😂🤣😂



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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by iaafan » Thu May 14, 2020 8:59 am

TomCat88 wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 5:10 pm
iaafan wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 8:17 am
The time is now for MSU to start developing a set of backup plans. The nice thing about backup plans is they're ... backup plans. If things go back to normal, you can scrap them. It would be a shame if the BSC scraps the season or a number of teams on the MSU schedule scrap their seasons, but MSU and UM don't have anything in place to mitigate the loss.
I don’t know what kind of work it would take, but I hope MSU is looking into alternative schedules in some form. I wouldn’t wait for the BSC to say the season is a no-go.

If I was a state legislator, I’d be telling the BOR they better have something in place, because Montanans didn’t work hard to keep cases/million and deaths/million this low for nothing. There’s a lot of revenue to be lost if teams from the MUS don’t play their normal six (UM-MSU) or five (Western, Northern, Tech) home games.
I talked to a real good source yesterday who said that MSU is working on backup plans, but that it's very liquid at this point. Was told that they have a replacement game for one team that is likely to not be playing. Again, it's liquid this early. Nice to know that they're doing something.



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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by PapaG » Thu May 14, 2020 10:06 am

bobcat92 wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 7:16 pm
BleedingBLue wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 10:58 pm
Mark Emmett said tonight that unless college campuses open up for the fall semester, fall sports are unlikely to be played.
"The first serious warning of how major college sports might be impacted this fall by the coronavirus pandemic was sounded Tuesday when California State University system chancellor Timothy White announced that it will operate primarily with online instruction for the semester." https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/c ... 121272001/

UC Davis, Cal Poly, and Sac State won't be playing football this fall if this is the case.
Davis and Cal-Poly are in the UC system, though.


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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by wbtfg » Thu May 14, 2020 10:25 am

PapaG wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 10:06 am
bobcat92 wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 7:16 pm
BleedingBLue wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 10:58 pm
Mark Emmett said tonight that unless college campuses open up for the fall semester, fall sports are unlikely to be played.
"The first serious warning of how major college sports might be impacted this fall by the coronavirus pandemic was sounded Tuesday when California State University system chancellor Timothy White announced that it will operate primarily with online instruction for the semester." https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/c ... 121272001/

UC Davis, Cal Poly, and Sac State won't be playing football this fall if this is the case.
Davis and Cal-Poly are in the UC system, though.
I believe Poly is CalState



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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by MSU01 » Thu May 14, 2020 11:21 am

wbtfg wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 10:25 am
PapaG wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 10:06 am
bobcat92 wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 7:16 pm
BleedingBLue wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 10:58 pm
Mark Emmett said tonight that unless college campuses open up for the fall semester, fall sports are unlikely to be played.
"The first serious warning of how major college sports might be impacted this fall by the coronavirus pandemic was sounded Tuesday when California State University system chancellor Timothy White announced that it will operate primarily with online instruction for the semester." https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/c ... 121272001/

UC Davis, Cal Poly, and Sac State won't be playing football this fall if this is the case.
Davis and Cal-Poly are in the UC system, though.
I believe Poly is CalState
Correct. The full name of the school is California Polytechnic State University - San Luis Obispo. Thank goodness for the name shortening for the benefit of sports teams & leagues!


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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by imacat » Thu May 14, 2020 11:26 am

Where things stand ... at this 10 seconds.

https://406mtsports.com/college/big-sky ... 2bf32.html



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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by PapaG » Thu May 14, 2020 11:58 am

wbtfg wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 10:25 am
PapaG wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 10:06 am
bobcat92 wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 7:16 pm
BleedingBLue wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 10:58 pm
Mark Emmett said tonight that unless college campuses open up for the fall semester, fall sports are unlikely to be played.
"The first serious warning of how major college sports might be impacted this fall by the coronavirus pandemic was sounded Tuesday when California State University system chancellor Timothy White announced that it will operate primarily with online instruction for the semester." https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/c ... 121272001/

UC Davis, Cal Poly, and Sac State won't be playing football this fall if this is the case.
Davis and Cal-Poly are in the UC system, though.

I believe Poly is CalState
Good catch. Thanks!


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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by coachouert » Tue May 19, 2020 1:03 pm

Bullock is having a press conference at 3pm today to talk about moving to phase 2 of reopening if people are interested in tuning in.

https://www.kbzk.com/news/montana-news/ ... -plan-3-pm


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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by wbtfg » Tue May 19, 2020 4:16 pm

coachouert wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:03 pm
Bullock is having a press conference at 3pm today to talk about moving to phase 2 of reopening if people are interested in tuning in.

https://www.kbzk.com/news/montana-news/ ... -plan-3-pm
Looks like Phase 2 begins 6/1.



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Re: Alright, let's discuss the elephant in the room.

Post by wbtfg » Thu May 21, 2020 8:02 am

Another thing to consider.....let's say the season is a full go, but MSU is only allowed to fill every 3rd seat due to social distancing. I wonder how the logistics of that would work out. Is there a priority system? Does the band get bumped?



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