BRAWL 2020 Run Game--325 O/U

[The MICKSTER]

It certainly isn’t a secret that the wins the Bobcats have chalked up during Choate’s reign as HC is due in large part to their dedication and execution of the run game. I thought I’d look at how it correlated with his wins over um and how the 2020 match-up might play out specific to the run game. Below are some Brawl stats since 2016 along with seasonal Rush Yd stats for the Bobcats;

Stats of Choate’s teams’ vs um….

YEAR……….Rush Yds……….Rush Att……Yds/Rush…..AVG Rush Yds/G for season
2019………..382………………….62……………..6.2……………………258.....+124
2018………..229………………….48……………..4.8……………………236
2017………..322………………….57……………..5.6……………………250
2016………..368………………….62……………..5.9……………………212
AVERAGE…325………………57………………5.7…….………………239

On average Choate’s Bobcats have rushed for 86 yards more in the Brawl than what their season average was. Against Hauck’s teams it’s 59 yards more than their seasonal average. In 2019 it was 124 more. Why is it that Choate’s Bobcats, for the most part, have substantially more success running the ball vs um than their other opponents???? I’m not sure but it seems to be the case. Let’s look at the Pros & Cons of what will happen in 2020 regarding the Bobcat run game vs um’s defense;

MSU Bobcats--PROs
4 of 5 OL starters return
All our TE’s return
Ifanse, Sumner, Perry, Hosey, Fitzgerald & TA return…Jaharie Martin could develop
Brian Armstrong, Run Game Coordinator returns
Our QB will either be Rovig with another season of experience under his belt or someone deemed better than Rovig, so our QB position should at least be slightly better than in 2019, which will help the run game.

MSU Bobcats--CONs
We lose Logan Jones, which for most teams would be devastating, but with our stable of returning RB’s will not be too bad.
Karl Tucker II gone
Mitch Brott…..there is no sugar coating this one…...this will hurt. However, with 4 of 5 OL starters returning along with all the TE’s, I expect it will not be devastating. He will be missed for sure.

‘um griz--PROs
They’ll have home field
There will be an Urgency for Hauck to get a win over the Bobcats. He’s been around the Brawl enough to know that even if you have winning seasons and don’t beat your in-state Rival your job is in jeopardy (i.e. Ash). I suspect he will put even more effort into preparing for the Brawl in 2020 than he has the past 2 years.
They can’t do any worse......if the Bobcats had run the ball up the gut instead of some kneel downs at the end of the game we would have topped 400 yards rushing.

'um griz--CONs
Olson (the Buck Buchanan winner) is gone. This is like us losing Mitch Brott……you just can’t replace players like that.
Sims, their legacy #37, and 3+ year starter is gone from their DL.
Ryder Rice, their OLB/DE is gone.
Their DC (Baer) who has been there since Hauck got there is back. I think it’s fair to say Choate & Co. has his number.

When I collectively look at these facts/stats I just don’t see how our run game success in the Brawl doesn’t continue in 2020. However, if you want to discuss whether we’ll win, that’s a more in-depth conversation. I would point out that our QB play will be at least slightly better than last year (see above) where um’s will most likely have a significant drop off after losing Sneed. It’s tough to envision a scenario where we put up 300+ yards on the ground and don’t win.......multiple turnovers maybe.

POLL ?: WOULD YOU BET OVER/UNDER ON WHETHER OR NOT THE BOBCATS HAVE 325 (Choate’s average) YARDS RUSHING IN THE 2020 BRAWL?

Have a GREAT EASTER & GO CATS!

[catatac]

I'll go with the over. Of course Choate and Co will run all over UM, that's what they do. Couple other points, Tucker wouldn't have contributed much to our running game production. Not knocking the kid, just the way it is - I hope he's able to get some playing time at Western. Also, another pro will be TA carrying the rock a few times.

[The MICKSTER]

I think there are 3 ways we won’t gain over 325 yards.....

1. We have multiple turnovers. Which is possible. In the 2019 Brawl Jonsen & Patterson fumbled but we recovered, and both Jones & Rovig fumbled out of bounds. It could happen but doubtful.

2. Our pass game is so good we don’t have to rely on the run game. Again doubtful because whether our pass game is improved or not I think Choate will run,run & run some more.

3. ‘um significantly improves their scheme against our run game along with their DL & LB’s improve their athletic ability. Again, very doubtful I think.

Only 7+ months and we’ll find out. I hope!

[catsrback76]

The greatest guarantee that we will win again is Bobby H, who treats Cat griz just like any other game!

[mslacatfan]

One of the things I’m most excited about Next fall- is to see what ifanse can do for an entire season if he can stay healthy (knock on wood).

He has the potential to be a 1st team all American, and just put up some absurd numbers.... including the cat-griz game.

[RickRund]

I think there are 3 ways we won’t gain over 325 yards.....

1. We have multiple turnovers. Which is possible. In the 2019 Brawl Jonsen & Patterson fumbled but we recovered, and both Jones & Rovig fumbled out of bounds. It could happen but doubtful.

2. Our pass game is so good we don’t have to rely on the run game. Again doubtful because whether our pass game is improved or not I think Choate will run,run & run some more.

3. ‘um significantly improves their scheme against our run game along with their DL & LB’s improve their athletic ability. Again, very doubtful I think.

Only 7+ months and we’ll find out. I hope!

I was under the impression that the griz would not be as talented in the DL and LB spots as last year.

[TomCat88]

I’ll take the under because I think UM will run more often with Sneed gone and the game is in Missoula, where they gave up 225 last time.

[FTG247365]

The Ground and Pound for MSU has a different meaning for the Cat-Griz. IMO, losing Logan Jones is huge, loved watching him play, he had the IT factor.

[TomCat88]

The Ground and Pound for MSU has a different meaning for the Cat-Griz. IMO, losing Logan Jones is huge, loved watching him play, he had the IT factor.

Hasn’t almost everyone? Murray, Newell, Brekke, LaSane, Andersen, Ifanse, and Marshall.

[The MICKSTER]

I think there are 3 ways we won’t gain over 325 yards.....

1. We have multiple turnovers. Which is possible. In the 2019 Brawl Jonsen & Patterson fumbled but we recovered, and both Jones & Rovig fumbled out of bounds. It could happen but doubtful.

2. Our pass game is so good we don’t have to rely on the run game. Again doubtful because whether our pass game is improved or not I think Choate will run,run & run some more.

3. ‘um significantly improves their scheme against our run game along with their DL & LB’s improve their athletic ability. Again, very doubtful I think.

Only 7+ months and we’ll find out. I hope!

I was under the impression that the griz would not be as talented in the DL and LB spots as last year.

You are correct. With the loss of Dante Olson, Jesse Sims, & Rhyder Rice, along with no notable transfers that I know of is a major reason why I believe the Bobcats will have a 325+ rushing day in the Brawl 2020. The chance of um’s rush defense on the field being stronger & more athletic in 2020 than they were in 2019 is very doubtful.

[catatac]

The Ground and Pound for MSU has a different meaning for the Cat-Griz. IMO, losing Logan Jones is huge, loved watching him play, he had the IT factor.

Hasn’t almost everyone? Murray, Newell, Brekke, LaSane, Andersen, Ifanse, and Marshall.

100%..... and there are other RBs on the roster right now that will have the it" factror, guaranteed. It's absurd how good the MSU RBs have been over the last decade and there's no doubt in my mind that will continue.

[Cataholic]

I think there are 3 ways we won’t gain over 325 yards.....

1. We have multiple turnovers. Which is possible. In the 2019 Brawl Jonsen & Patterson fumbled but we recovered, and both Jones & Rovig fumbled out of bounds. It could happen but doubtful.

2. Our pass game is so good we don’t have to rely on the run game. Again doubtful because whether our pass game is improved or not I think Choate will run,run & run some more.

3. ‘um significantly improves their scheme against our run game along with their DL & LB’s improve their athletic ability. Again, very doubtful I think.

Only 7+ months and we’ll find out. I hope!

I was under the impression that the griz would not be as talented in the DL and LB spots as last year.

You are correct. With the loss of Dante Olson, Jesse Sims, & Rhyder Rice, along with no notable transfers that I know of is a major reason why I believe the Bobcats will have a 325+ rushing day in the Brawl 2020. The chance of um’s rush defense on the field being stronger & more athletic in 2020 than they were in 2019 is very doubtful.

I watched last years Cat Griz on Root this week. We were stronger, faster and more physical. The running lanes were wide open and their LBs were always a step slow. Robby Hauck is aggressive but his angles were awful! We had some scores where our RB was not even touched by the opposition. 325 is a hard number to duplicate, but if next years UM defense is not significantly better personnel wise, holding MSU to under 325 will be almost impossible.

[Joe Bobcat]

I'll take the under because 324 yards is all we should need. Haha I hope we have an improved passing game to give us more yards than in the recent past. Perhaps that will be hard to do with Choate's run first and almost always mentality and the loss of Kassis and Jonsen but a new QB or more experienced one along with the new (not necessarily better just different) OC and the up and comer receivers is what I'm hanging my hopes on.

[FTG247365]

The Ground and Pound for MSU has a different meaning for the Cat-Griz. IMO, losing Logan Jones is huge, loved watching him play, he had the IT factor.

Hasn’t almost everyone? Murray, Newell, Brekke, LaSane, Andersen, Ifanse, and Marshall.

I agree, just loved watching Jones play, he had the speed to break a big play.

[TomCat88]

The Ground and Pound for MSU has a different meaning for the Cat-Griz. IMO, losing Logan Jones is huge, loved watching him play, he had the IT factor.

Hasn’t almost everyone? Murray, Newell, Brekke, LaSane, Andersen, Ifanse, and Marshall.

I agree, just loved watching Jones play, he had the speed to break a big play.

True.

[Montanabob]

Maybe we will have a different QB win each of the last four years.

[catatac]

Maybe we will have a different QB win each of the last four years.

That's a really good point, and that's why I absolutely love Choate's consistently winning strategy. With this system you don't need to have a phenom QB every year to win, like the EWU's, UM's of the world.

[Darth Yoda]

I'm confidently going with under. If things go as I expect, I see a pretty even split. We will likely be better at QB and quite possibly better at WR, and assuming Bob Jr is still starting at safety (fingers crossed), we will have our way through the air. I'm thinking about a 250 and 250 type game.

[Cledus]

I’ll take the over.

I think it will play out like the 2019 Cat griz game. Run it until they need a pass or until a fat opportunity emerges.

[mslacatfan]

I'm confidently going with under. If things go as I expect, I see a pretty even split. We will likely be better at QB and quite possibly better at WR, and assuming Bob Jr is still starting at safety (fingers crossed), we will have our way through the air. I'm thinking about a 250 and 250 type game.

“Possibly better at WR”.... I sure hope you are right, but that is a pretty bold prediction. Losing kassis and jonsen is massive.

I am excited to see Tyrone marshal have a bigger role though, along with coy Steele and some of the other young guys.