How MSU beats NDSU on Saturday

[Catprint]

All year I have refrained from doing much analysis in my weekly posts (Path to the Playoffs) about how the Bobcats could win their next game. Usually I provided some platitudes about strength against strength or how we need to defend the pass,etc. Part of the reason is there are WAY more qualified posters who know much more about the X’s and O’s of football (@Mickster; @coochorama42;@darth Yoda; @bleedingblue; to name just of few). But this, likely my last major post of the year, I want to take a stab at how MSU beats NDSU. AND because I had minor surgery yesterday and am bed ridden for a day, I have nothing better to do with my time than act like I really know something about football.

For all the Bison readers (@Lakebison, @Bison15XNatChamps; @bisonfan23;et al), do I think the Bobcats are going to win Saturday? On a probability scale – NO. Do I have huge respect for a team with a 35 game win streak; a 26 game home win streak and 15 National Championships? Yes. I even can understand the arrogance of the fan base. What else is left? Who can knock off the king? By definition, arrogance comes with the territory. My hats off to NDSU and dynasty it has built. Now, do I think Bobcats can win Saturday? Yes, absolutely! Oh, not a sure thing. Not even 50/50 as some sports writers have inferred. I give it 30-70 odds. But it could happen if the chips mostly fall into place.

I wanted to create a new thread because the NDSU thread was long and full of non-game related posts. Plus I wanted to start clean looking at the game again. What I want to do here is try to stay away from smack and insults and the past because just like mutual funds – “past performance is no guarantee of future performance”. I want to look at football. What events need to happen on the field on Saturday for the Bobcats to win. To stir up some football discussion. Because as we all know (whether we want to accept it or not), what we as rabid fans think has no influence on the field of play come Saturday. Not to say there is not a home field advantage but that advantage is based on butts in the bleachers and noise level – not the football acumen of any or all fans!

My analysis takes information from other posters; from Stats; from Hero sports; from NCAA.com; college sports madness, ESPN, Sagarin and more. Because of course, I don’t really know anything other than what I discern from others. I have watched all 8 Bobcat home games and 2 of the away games. I have only watched NDSU once (last week) but followed most of their games and read up on them. All I can do is consolidate information and present it in a fashion that I think gives us the best chance to win. So here goes…

Bobcat’s on Offense
(all stats reflect the Bobcat Offense vs NDSU Defense based on NCAA national rankings to date)
• Scoring
o Bobcats – 19th
o NDSU – 1st
o Net: NDSU PLUS 18
OBSERVATION
As we can see from both sides of the ball, defense is a big part of why the four teams in the Semis got there. There are no EWU’s, SELA’s; Portland State’s; NAU’s or San Diego type teams in the semis – teams with powerful offenses but questionable defenses. That is not to say that NDSU and MSU don’t have high scoring offenses – they both do. But what we will see on Saturday is likely a game in the teens or 20’s. Defense will be trump card. The Bobcats are not going to score 30 or 40 points in this game. But in order to win, we have to get in the high teens or 20’s.

• Rushing
o Bobcats – 7th
o NDSU – 30th
o Net: Bobcats PLUS 22
OBSERVATION
NDSU run defense has proven susceptible in their 3 reasonably close regular season games and 2 playoff games. In these games, the other team ran the ball significantly more than the NDSU average. The average in these games was 173 yards a game for the opponents. In the closest games the other team always had a great day rushing against NDSU. Yet, in every case, the Bison won. This supports the general view that even in an off day or playing against a run-strong offense, the NDSU defense plays well enough to win. They give up yards but the real difference is how they stop you on third down and in the red zone. 11th best 3rd down defense and 22nd in red zone. What is amazing is the number of red zone attempts NDSU opponents have – only 27 all year. That is the lowest amount of any team. The Bobcats will have to run the ball and run it with in all their different ways – not just off the tackle and up the gut.

• Passing
o Bobcats – 99th
o NDSU – 1st
o Net: NDSU Plus 98!!!
OBSERVATION
o This is the biggest stat discrepancy in the game. The NDSU pass defense is seldom noticed and severely underrated even though it is number one in the nation. It is really hard to figure this out. I think it is partly because teams fall behind so quickly that NDSU can exploit their need to pass in order to stay in the game. Also, the MVFC is far more run centric than is the Big Sky. There are so many teams that try to drive the ball through the run. The top 5 teams in the Big Sky average 305 yards of passing a game in conference play while the top 5 teams in the MVFC average only 210 yards. There are way less passes thrown in the MVFC compared to the Big Sky so Big Sky teams don’t rank high. There are 6 MVFC teams in the Top 20 for pass defense while the highest rated Big Sky pass defense is Southern Utah at #69. Just an example of how stats across conferences don’t always have the same meaning. This does not mean the NDSU linebackers and DB’s are not good – they are very good. But there is some room to test them.

• Catprint’s Keys to Winning on the Battle on Offense
o Score first and keep it close. Our advantage is scoring first or getting ahead early in the game.
o Be Creative. Use all of the tools we have a hand. Make NDSU guess on every play who will carry the ball.
o Avoid TFL’s. While being creative, we need to get positive yards.
o First and second down runs need to give us a first down or leave us with short 3rd downs. NDSU’s 3rd down conversion rate is the 11th best. Big plays are a must (see intangibles below). We can’t get in a red zone contest on offense. Even though our Red Zone offense is #9 ( and of our 6 misses, at least 3 were knell downs at the end of the game.), this is NDSU’s bread and butter. They do not allow teams to score a touchdown when inside the 20.
o Pass 20-25 times at a minimum. If we run 75-80% of the time, their D-line will wear us down. They will pack the box (which they will do anyway). NDSU pass offense is good but it is seldom tested against the best teams (ISU passed 8 times; Southern Illinois 10 times; South Dakota State 5 times). The exception was Davis and Jake Maier. He threw for 312 yards and 48 times. UCD almost won. However, Maier threw 3 interceptions. We have to spread the field and we need to open up the opportunities to press their D.
o Those passes need to go down the field – slants, outs, go routes. WR screens, short wheel routes, backfield passes, are far less likely to be successful. NDSU will be there. Their defense is designed to stop those backfield type of plays. I will cringe with each WR screen (we will have to throw some, I understand).
o Ifanse, Rovig, Logan, Kassis and Jonsen all need their A-game. We don’t have a single star so we need all the top players to be on task. Not a perfect game but a solid one from each one. I think Kassis and Ifanse are the key players of the game.
o We have to hold on to the ball. (See intangibles below).

Bobcats on Defense
(all stats reflect the Bobcat Defense vs NDSU Offense based on NCAA national rankings to date)

• Scoring
o NDSU – 4th
o Bobcats – 22nd
o Net: NDSU PLUS 18
OBSERVATION
NDSU holds the advantage in scoring offense and scoring defense over the Cats – both by a margin of 18. This is a scary stat. NDSU scores a ton and keeps the opponent from scoring. We can argue that NDSU played a weaker MVFC schedule this year (due to the MVFC being weaker overall) but they played 8 ranked teams or playoff teams during the year. They are ranked 41st in Sagarin rank and SOS is 156 compared to 160 for MSU. Their ability to have a strong rushing offense behind an outstanding first year QB in Lance make them a dual threat all the time.

• Rushing
o NDSU – 4th
o Bobcats – 9th
o Net: NDSU PLUS 5
OBSERVATION:
I know I will be accused of cherry picking stats but since the UND game, the Cats defense has been allowing only 59.6 yards of rushing per game. This would make the Cats number 1 in the nation! Our rush defense is one of the best in the country. It will be severely tested by the 4th best rushing offense. Unlike Austin Peay who had a strong rushing offense but played a weak schedule, no one will say the same of NDSU’s schedule. Their ability to rush the ball is substantial. We are not holding NDSU to 0 or 17 yards rushing. But can we hold them to 100-150 yards?

• Passing
o NDSU – 87th
o Bobcats – 84th
o Net: Bobcats PLUS 3
OBSERVATION:
So passing on NDSU’s part is not a strength. Even though Trey Lance has not thrown an interception, that does not make him a Cookus or Maier. The NDSU offense is very conservative and passing is done in very careful increments. That said, Lance does not make mistakes and he is mature beyond his years. I firmly believe NDSU is going to open up their offense against MSU and will pass considerably more than the last few games. Partly because the coach said so and partly due to their relatively lethargy in the last 3 games (2nd half of Nicholls game not withstanding). This is going to be a challenge for us and for them. However, our 84th ranked pass defense is against way better quarterbacks in general (Cookus; Sneed, Thomson; Maier; Undercuffler, et. al) so I think our rank is understated.

• Catprints Keys to Winning on Defense
o Stop the run; stop the run; stop the run. We don’t have to hold them to 0 yards like Austin Peay but we have keep them under around 150. Their O-line is big and they will get yards.
o Avoid the big running plays. None of the runs can be more than 10-15 yards. We can’t get burned for a 70 yard 3rd and 2 run.
o Put pressure on Lance. Few teams have done that. ISU was somewhat successful and it disrupted their flow. Will that mean 3 or 4 sacks? Unlikely. But 1 or 2 sacks, and force a few scrambles for a loss (have to contain him - Lance can run) and some hurried passes.
o Don’t let Christian Watson out of your sight. Make Lance throw to other receivers to beat us.
o Tackle well. This is been a hallmark of the Bobcats all year and needs to continue.
o I don't think we will see much in trick plays from NDSU but need to watch for that very reason. If they are going to open up their offense, something has to happen.

Special Teams
• Punting
o Net Punting
 Bobcats – 21st
 NDSU – 50th
o Punt Returns
 Bobcats – 29th
 NDSU – 20th
• Field Goals
o Total
 Bobcats – 14 for 24
 NDSU – 11 for 14
• Kick Off
o Returns
 Bobcats – 47th
 NDSU – 7th
OBSERVATIONS
Hard to say if any significant advantage here. Padmos definitely has a better net average and can lay some punts inside the 20 but last week NDSU put a number of punts inside the 5 and missed a couple of other chances. NDSU has better kickoff return stats but neither team has more than 27 returns all year. Same for punt returns. I don’t see many returns inside the dome. Tristan tries more field goals but misses more. NDSU just scores touchdowns. I think Tristan does better in the dome so I think the field goal situation is more even. The keys on special teams comes down to two items; Don’t fumble; don’t allow long returns.


Intangibles (Things generally out of players control) that need to/could go our way. We need at least half, if not a solid majority, of the intangibles to go our way.

• A well ref’d game
Refs are people. They make mistakes. They over ref a game. They make mistakes (like the lateral that should not have been blown dead in the NDSU/ISU game). The have bias that shows from time to time. The Cats need a clean game all the way around and need the Ref’s to call a game accurately and fairly. Most games are but if we ever need one it is this one.

• Bison Fan Fatigue
Been mentioned in the NDSU thread and its own thread. Could the fan base be complacent? Could they be more interested in Winnebago’s rather than wins? Could the thrill be gone after so many NCs? I read the FargoDome is sold out so this may not be an issue. I don’t know how many tickets was the Cat allotment nor how many tickets were purchased outside of the allotment. Certainly, lower home energy is a plus for the Cats. Lower the home field advantage which is clearly huge for the Bison.

• Whose Hungrier
Ok - so this is kind of in the player's hand. The opposite of Bison Fatigue for players. Could the Cats be hungry. Could they believe they are destined to win. Could they want it more? It is possible. It is even probable. But that same feeling only got Austin Peay to the conference championship and 2 playoff wins before reality superseded passion. But I would not discount its importance.

• The UNLV effect
If the game is close and the Cats are in a position to score for the lead or make it a two score lead, could the Bison suffer from the UNLV effect. UNLV is undefeated in 1991. They are in the Final Four against Duke. They are looking to be the first undefeated team since who knows when (Indiana in 76) They are loaded with future pros: Greg Anthony; Larry Johnson; Stacey Augmon; Elmore Spencer. They beat Duke 103-73 the year before in title game. But as the game got close in the waning minutes, UNLV was looking over their shoulder at history. They had this huge winning streak-45 games. They were expected to win. As the game winded down, UNLV panicked. They forgot how to pass. They felt the pressure. They had not been in this position before. They broke ranks and lost in the last minute 79-77. Could it happen?

• Bobcats last 7 games on Defense
Stats are stats but… The Bobcats have played outstanding defense the last 7 games. They have peaked – points allowed by First Team Defense – 10.2 a game; yards rushing allowed – 59.7 yards a game!!! This is simply phenomenal.

• School Schedule
NDSU had finals and graduation this week. MSU had the full week to think about nothing but football. A minor advantage perhaps but we will take it.

• Players not at full strength
All teams have players injured, out, feeling under the weather; not at full strength. Just maybe, there are a few more key Bison at less than 100% than there are Bobcats. I would be shocked if Troy suits up but miracles do happen.

• Its not a round ball
Unlike in basketball or baseball where the ball is round and reasonably predictable, how a football bounces (both literally (on the ground) and metaphorically (in the game)) is less predictable. In the Cat/Griz game, it was PURE LUCK we recovered Travis Jonsen’s fumble in the first couple of plays. The Griz did not cause the fumble. Travis did not pick up the ball cleanly once he fumbled. A ton of Griz fell on the ball and it squirted out and we recovered. No football skills involved– just pure luck. On Saturday, maybe an NDSU linebacker out of gap and a 60 yard Ifanse run. Maybe a fumble bounce right into Mark’s hands. Maybe a tip and the first Trey Lance interception.

Ok there you have it. Have at it… Oh wait, I can’t miss a chance to make a prediction:

My final Predictions (and i changed my odds for those who read the whole post - now 40/60!)

• MSU Blowout (3 scores plus) - .05% chance. Not going to happen
• MSU Comfortable (2 scores) – 15%
• MSU Close One (1 score or less) – 25%
• NDSU Close One (1 score or less) – 30%
• NDSU Comfortable ( 2 scores) – 25%
• NDSU Blowout (3 scores plus) – 5%

Heart
Bobcats – 24 NDSU – 20
Head
NDSU – 27 Bobcats – 17

Go Cats!

[luckyirishguy25]

All year I have refrained from doing much analysis in my weekly posts (Path to the Playoffs) about how the Bobcats could win their next game. Usually I provided some platitudes about strength against strength or how we need to defend the pass,etc. Part of the reason is there are WAY more qualified posters who know much more about the X’s and O’s of football (@Mickster; @coochorama42;@darth Yoda; @bleedingblue; to name just of few). But this, likely my last major post of the year, I want to take a stab at how MSU beats NDSU. AND because I had minor surgery yesterday and am bed ridden for a day, I have nothing better to do with my time than act like I really know something about football.

For all the Bison readers (@Lakebison, @Bison15XNatChamps; @bisonfan23;et al), do I think the Bobcats are going to win Saturday? On a probability scale – NO. Do I have huge respect for a team with a 35 game win streak; a 26 game home win streak and 15 National Championships? Yes. I even can understand the arrogance of the fan base. What else is left? Who can knock off the king? By definition, arrogance comes with the territory. My hats off to NDSU and dynasty it has built. Now, do I think Bobcats can win Saturday? Yes, absolutely! Oh, not a sure thing. Not even 50/50 as some sports writers have inferred. I give it 30-70 odds. But it could happen if the chips mostly fall into place.

I wanted to create a new thread because the NDSU thread was long and full of non-game related posts. Plus I wanted to start clean looking at the game again. What I want to do here is try to stay away from smack and insults and the past because just like mutual funds – “past performance is no guarantee of future performance”. I want to look at football. What events need to happen on the field on Saturday for the Bobcats to win. To stir up some football discussion. Because as we all know (whether we want to accept it or not), what we as rabid fans think has no influence on the field of play come Saturday. Not to say there is not a home field advantage but that advantage is based on butts in the bleachers and noise level – not the football acumen of any or all fans!

My analysis takes information from other posters; from Stats; from Hero sports; from NCAA.com; college sports madness, ESPN, Sagarin and more. Because of course, I don’t really know anything other than what I discern from others. I have watched all 8 Bobcat home games and 2 of the away games. I have only watched NDSU once (last week) but followed most of their games and read up on them. All I can do is consolidate information and present it in a fashion that I think gives us the best chance to win. So here goes…

Bobcat’s on Offense
(all stats reflect the Bobcat Offense vs NDSU Defense based on NCAA national rankings to date)
• Scoring
o Bobcats – 19th
o NDSU – 1st
o Net: NDSU PLUS 18
OBSERVATION
As we can see from both sides of the ball, defense is a big part of why the four teams in the Semis got there. There are no EWU’s, SELA’s; Portland State’s; NAU’s or San Diego type teams in the semis – teams with powerful offenses but questionable defenses. That is not to say that NDSU and MSU don’t have high scoring offenses – they both do. But what we will see on Saturday is likely a game in the teens or 20’s. Defense will be trump card. The Bobcats are not going to score 30 or 40 points in this game. But in order to win, we have to get in the high teens or 20’s.

• Rushing
o Bobcats – 7th
o NDSU – 30th
o Net: Bobcats PLUS 22
OBSERVATION
NDSU run defense has proven susceptible in their 3 reasonably close regular season games and 2 playoff games. In these games, the other team ran the ball significantly more than the NDSU average. The average in these games was 173 yards a game for the opponents. In the closest games the other team always had a great day rushing against NDSU. Yet, in every case, the Bison won. This supports the general view that even in an off day or playing against a run-strong offense, the NDSU defense plays well enough to win. They give up yards but the real difference is how they stop you on third down and in the red zone. 11th best 3rd down defense and 22nd in red zone. What is amazing is the number of red zone attempts NDSU opponents have – only 27 all year. That is the lowest amount of any team. The Bobcats will have to run the ball and run it with in all their different ways – not just off the tackle and up the gut.

• Passing
o Bobcats – 99th
o NDSU – 1st
o Net: NDSU Plus 98!!!
OBSERVATION
o This is the biggest stat discrepancy in the game. The NDSU pass defense is seldom noticed and severely underrated even though it is number one in the nation. It is really hard to figure this out. I think it is partly because teams fall behind so quickly that NDSU can exploit their need to pass in order to stay in the game. Also, the MVFC is far more run centric than is the Big Sky. There are so many teams that try to drive the ball through the run. The top 5 teams in the Big Sky average 305 yards of passing a game in conference play while the top 5 teams in the MVFC average only 210 yards. There are way less passes thrown in the MVFC compared to the Big Sky so Big Sky teams don’t rank high. There are 6 MVFC teams in the Top 20 for pass defense while the highest rated Big Sky pass defense is Southern Utah at #69. Just an example of how stats across conferences don’t always have the same meaning. This does not mean the NDSU linebackers and DB’s are not good – they are very good. But there is some room to test them.

• Catprint’s Keys to Winning on the Battle on Offense
o Score first and keep it close. Our advantage is scoring first or getting ahead early in the game.
o Be Creative. Use all of the tools we have a hand. Make NDSU guess on every play who will carry the ball.
o Avoid TFL’s. While being creative, we need to get positive yards.
o First and second down runs need to give us a first down or leave us with short 3rd downs. NDSU’s 3rd down conversion rate is the 11th best. Big plays are a must (see intangibles below). We can’t get in a red zone contest on offense. Even though our Red Zone offense is #9 ( and of our 6 misses, at least 3 were knell downs at the end of the game.), this is NDSU’s bread and butter. They do not allow teams to score a touchdown when inside the 20.
o Pass 20-25 times at a minimum. If we run 75-80% of the time, their D-line will wear us down. They will pack the box (which they will do anyway). NDSU pass offense is good but it is seldom tested against the best teams (ISU passed 8 times; Southern Illinois 10 times; South Dakota State 5 times). The exception was Davis and Jake Maier. He threw for 312 yards and 48 times. UCD almost won. However, Maier threw 3 interceptions. We have to spread the field and we need to open up the opportunities to press their D.
o Those passes need to go down the field – slants, outs, go routes. WR screens, short wheel routes, backfield passes, are far less likely to be successful. NDSU will be there. Their defense is designed to stop those backfield type of plays. I will cringe with each WR screen (we will have to throw some, I understand).
o Ifanse, Rovig, Logan, Kassis and Jonsen all need their A-game. We don’t have a single star so we need all the top players to be on task. Not a perfect game but a solid one from each one. I think Kassis and Ifanse are the key players of the game.
o We have to hold on to the ball. (See intangibles below).

Bobcats on Defense
(all stats reflect the Bobcat Defense vs NDSU Offense based on NCAA national rankings to date)

• Scoring
o NDSU – 4th
o Bobcats – 22nd
o Net: NDSU PLUS 18
OBSERVATION
NDSU holds the advantage in scoring offense and scoring defense over the Cats – both by a margin of 18. This is a scary stat. NDSU scores a ton and keeps the opponent from scoring. We can argue that NDSU played a weaker MVFC schedule this year (due to the MVFC being weaker overall) but they played 8 ranked teams or playoff teams during the year. They are ranked 41st in Sagarin rank and SOS is 156 compared to 160 for MSU. Their ability to have a strong rushing offense behind an outstanding first year QB in Lance make them a dual threat all the time.

• Rushing
o NDSU – 4th
o Bobcats – 9th
o Net: NDSU PLUS 5
OBSERVATION:
I know I will be accused of cherry picking stats but since the UND game, the Cats defense has been allowing only 59.6 yards of rushing per game. This would make the Cats number 1 in the nation! Our rush defense is one of the best in the country. It will be severely tested by the 4th best rushing offense. Unlike Austin Peay who had a strong rushing offense but played a weak schedule, no one will say the same of NDSU’s schedule. Their ability to rush the ball is substantial. We are not holding NDSU to 0 or 17 yards rushing. But can we hold them to 100-150 yards?

• Passing
o NDSU – 87th
o Bobcats – 84th
o Net: Bobcats PLUS 3
OBSERVATION:
So passing on NDSU’s part is not a strength. Even though Trey Lance has not thrown an interception, that does not make him a Cookus or Maier. The NDSU offense is very conservative and passing is done in very careful increments. That said, Lance does not make mistakes and he is mature beyond his years. I firmly believe NDSU is going to open up their offense against MSU and will pass considerably more than the last few games. Partly because the coach said so and partly due to their relatively lethargy in the last 3 games (2nd half of Nicholls game not withstanding). This is going to be a challenge for us and for them. However, our 84th ranked pass defense is against way better quarterbacks in general (Cookus; Sneed, Thomson; Maier; Undercuffler, et. al) so I think our rank is understated.

• Catprints Keys to Winning on Defense
o Stop the run; stop the run; stop the run. We don’t have to hold them to 0 yards like Austin Peay but we have keep them under around 150. Their O-line is big and they will get yards.
o Avoid the big running plays. None of the runs can be more than 10-15 yards. We can’t get burned for a 70 yard 3rd and 2 run.
o Put pressure on Lance. Few teams have done that. ISU was somewhat successful and it disrupted their flow. Will that mean 3 or 4 sacks? Unlikely. But 1 or 2 sacks, and force a few scrambles for a loss (have to contain him - Lance can run) and some hurried passes.
o Don’t let Christian Watson out of your sight. Make Lance throw to other receivers to beat us.
o Tackle well. This is been a hallmark of the Bobcats all year and needs to continue.
o I don't think we will see much in trick plays from NDSU but need to watch for that very reason. If they are going to open up their offense, something has to happen.

Special Teams
• Punting
o Net Punting
 Bobcats – 21st
 NDSU – 50th
o Punt Returns
 Bobcats – 29th
 NDSU – 20th
• Field Goals
o Total
 Bobcats – 14 for 24
 NDSU – 11 for 14
• Kick Off
o Returns
 Bobcats – 47th
 NDSU – 7th
OBSERVATIONS
Hard to say if any significant advantage here. Padmos definitely has a better net average and can lay some punts inside the 20 but last week NDSU put a number of punts inside the 5 and missed a couple of other chances. NDSU has better kickoff return stats but neither team has more than 27 returns all year. Same for punt returns. I don’t see many returns inside the dome. Tristan tries more field goals but misses more. NDSU just scores touchdowns. I think Tristan does better in the dome so I think the field goal situation is more even. The keys on special teams comes down to two items; Don’t fumble; don’t allow long returns.


Intangibles (Things generally out of players control) that need to/could go our way. We need at least half, if not a solid majority, of the intangibles to go our way.

• A well ref’d game
Refs are people. They make mistakes. They over ref a game. They make mistakes (like the lateral that should not have been blown dead in the NDSU/ISU game). The have bias that shows from time to time. The Cats need a clean game all the way around and need the Ref’s to call a game accurately and fairly. Most games are but if we ever need one it is this one.

• Bison Fan Fatigue
Been mentioned in the NDSU thread and its own thread. Could the fan base be complacent? Could they be more interested in Winnebago’s rather than wins? Could the thrill be gone after so many NCs? I read the FargoDome is sold out so this may not be an issue. I don’t know how many tickets was the Cat allotment nor how many tickets were purchased outside of the allotment. Certainly, lower home energy is a plus for the Cats. Lower the home field advantage which is clearly huge for the Bison.

• Whose Hungrier
Ok - so this is kind of in the player's hand. The opposite of Bison Fatigue for players. Could the Cats be hungry. Could they believe they are destined to win. Could they want it more? It is possible. It is even probable. But that same feeling only got Austin Peay to the conference championship and 2 playoff wins before reality superseded passion. But I would not discount its importance.

• The UNLV effect
If the game is close and the Cats are in a position to score for the lead or make it a two score lead, could the Bison suffer from the UNLV effect. UNLV is undefeated in 1991. They are in the Final Four against Duke. They are looking to be the first undefeated team since who knows when (Indiana in 76) They are loaded with future pros: Greg Anthony; Larry Johnson; Stacey Augmon; Elmore Spencer. They beat Duke 103-73 the year before in title game. But as the game got close in the waning minutes, UNLV was looking over their shoulder at history. They had this huge winning streak-45 games. They were expected to win. As the game winded down, UNLV panicked. They forgot how to pass. They felt the pressure. They had not been in this position before. They broke ranks and lost in the last minute 79-77. Could it happen?

• Bobcats last 7 games on Defense
Stats are stats but… The Bobcats have played outstanding defense the last 7 games. They have peaked – points allowed by First Team Defense – 10.2 a game; yards rushing allowed – 59.7 yards a game!!! This is simply phenomenal.

• School Schedule
NDSU had finals and graduation this week. MSU had the full week to think about nothing but football. A minor advantage perhaps but we will take it.

• Players not at full strength
All teams have players injured, out, feeling under the weather; not at full strength. Just maybe, there are a few more key Bison at less than 100% than there are Bobcats. I would be shocked if Troy suits up but miracles do happen.

• Its not a round ball
Unlike in basketball or baseball where the ball is round and reasonably predictable, how a football bounces (both literally (on the ground) and metaphorically (in the game)) is less predictable. In the Cat/Griz game, it was PURE LUCK we recovered Travis Jonsen’s fumble in the first couple of plays. The Griz did not cause the fumble. Travis did not pick up the ball cleanly once he fumbled. A ton of Griz fell on the ball and it squirted out and we recovered. No football skills involved– just pure luck. On Saturday, maybe an NDSU linebacker out of gap and a 60 yard Ifanse run. Maybe a fumble bounce right into Mark’s hands. Maybe a tip and the first Trey Lance interception.

Ok there you have it. Have at it… Oh wait, I can’t miss a chance to make a prediction:

My final Predictions (and i changed my odds for those who read the whole post - now 40/60!)

• MSU Blowout (3 scores plus) - .05% chance. Not going to happen
• MSU Comfortable (2 scores) – 15%
• MSU Close One (1 score or less) – 25%
• NDSU Close One (1 score or less) – 30%
• NDSU Comfortable ( 2 scores) – 25%
• NDSU Blowout (3 scores plus) – 5%

Heart
Bobcats – 24 NDSU – 20
Head
NDSU – 27 Bobcats – 17

Go Cats!

Hope you recover from your surgery fast!

Imo our shot relies on pressuring Lance and containing the NDSU run game. Everyone's gotta play smart and do they're job, if we do that we have a 50-50 game on our hands.

[lakesbison]

good luck with surgery,

to answer this question. Food poisoning?

[kmax]

This is great! Excellent breakdown and fun to read. Thanks and hope the recovery goes well!

[Catprint]

LOL - no, no food poisoning! Just know that after a tough game like against ISU, there might be a few people banged up. Not wishing ill on any player but injuries and soreness are just part of the game! Hoping we have fewer than you do.

[The MICKSTER]

I think the fact that NDSU's Finals Week was this week, and MSU's was last week makes a big difference, especially when we have to travel.

Also, I think the UNLV effect could easily happen. Their QB is certainly mature for a RF, but any NDSU QB who would be at risk of losing a semi-final game at home in the 4th quarter would certainly be 'feeling the pressure' big time. The hard part will be keeping it close, or taking the lead, in the 4th quarter. GO CATS!

[Hawks86]

[coochorama42]

Nice job @Catprint. I think you are spot on. I too still believe this is a 30/70 affair, but I am heartened that Haley, Herder, and McLaughlin are predicting a close game. I think we can trust what we are seeing with our own eyes in this MSU team. This 1st team defense, as it has been playing since Sac State, is the best in the FCS I've seen with my own eyes. The last three games they have been unreal. Can't wait for Saturday...

[catsrback76]

As Mike Tyson said, "Everybody has a plan until they get hit"! Keep hitting them!

[cats2506]

As Mike Tyson said, "Everybody has a plan until they get hit"! Keep hitting them!

Somebody need to make a clip of Choate, talking to Fletcher at the end of the game pounding his fist over and over, I think it was at the end of the Southern Utah game

[RickRund]

Super writeup catprint. Thank you.

GOOOOOO BOBCATS

[Catprint]

Any other thoughts 3 hours before kickoff?

[catatac]

Any other thoughts 3 hours before kickoff?

I'll reiterate. The way our defense is playing, and the way the NDSU offense is built, they aren't going to score tons and tons of points. Also, with our O Line healthy and a healthy Ifanse along with Jones, Jonsen, Kassis, Steele, etc, the Cats WILL move the ball on them. So again it boils down to protecting the ball, no TOs and if we can manufacture anywhere near 350 or 400 yards of offense we win.

[84CatGrad]

Great analysis but would like to add a thought about turnovers. NDSU has a ridiculous 5 turnovers all year and are +16 on the year. MSU has 11 turnovers and are +13. We have to find a way to be +2 today.

[bobcat92]

Our offense is difficult to defend when it is running well. Also have to say nice right up. NDSU certainly should be considered by odds to win this game. I think the pressure to keep the streak going could be an advantage. MSU needs to play mistake free and also we can't play tight. Need to score quickly and get NDSU playing from behind. We lead early in the game the odds are we are going to win. If we fall behind in scoring tough to come back.