Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

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BWahlberg
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Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by BWahlberg » Tue Nov 26, 2019 5:05 pm

First off, congrats on the win… or should I say the absolute beat down. Secondly, rivalry trash-talk aside, I know most of you guys are good people, and have appreciated these scouting reports before, plus I enjoy doing them. Just like us, you guys have a week off, so here’s a copy of a mini-scouting report just like I did for the Grizzlies upcoming opponent as well.

Albany Great Danes 8-4

28th SRS rating
25th in FCS stats poll
145th Sagarin

Signature wins, 38-21 win vs then ranked #9 Towson (who would go on to finish 7-5 and miss the playoffs), 24-17 win over New Hampshire who finished 6-5.

Losses, lost to Central Michigan by 17, lost in OT to playoff bound Monmouth by 3 (Griz beat Monmouth early), other two losses were to middle of the pack Richmond and New Hampshire

Interestingly they also did not play James Madison or Villanova – the other two playoff bound CAA teams.

Central Connecticut State Blue Devils 11-1
14th SRS rating
17th FCS stats poll
149th Sagarin

Signature wins, as expected a team from the North East Conference doesn’t have any other matchups against playoff teams. Being 11-1 though, they did tally 11 wins. The closest I can get to another playoff game is they beat Fordham in the opening week 26-23. Fordham is in the same conference as Holy Cross, who’s playoff bound, and HC beat Fordham.

Losses, just one, lost to FBS Eastern Michigan 34-29 in week 4. EMU is 6-5 currently.


General Stats

Passing yards per game Albany (204 for CCSU vs 251 for Albany)
Rushing yards per game CCSU (215 for CCSU vs 140 for Albany)
Total offense CCSU (419 for CCSU vs 391 for Albany)
Passing yards allowed per game CCSU (201 for CCSU vs 214 for Albany)
Rushing yards allowed per game CCSU (72 for CCSU vs 144 for Albany)
Total defense CCSU (273 for CCSU vs 358 for Albany)

Big pull for CCSU, getting 5 while Albany gets 1

Offense points scored CCSU (34.9 for CCSU vs 31.3 for Albany)
Defense points allowed CCSU (18.3 for CCSU vs 24.7 for Albany)
Turnover margin CCSU – (+17 for CCSU / +6 for Albany)
Fieldgoal % Albany (39% for CCSU vs 67% for Albany)
Punt Returns CCSU (9.8 yards for CCSU vs 5.1 yards for Albany)
Kick Returns Albany (19.5 yards for CCSU vs 21.3 yards for Albany)
T.O.P. CCSU (33:03 for CCSU vs 29:59 for Albany)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) CCSU (52% CCSU / 58% Albany)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Albany (67% CCSU / 68% Albany)
3rd down offense CCSU – (39% for CCSU / 38% for Albany)
3rd down defense PUSH – (32% allowed for CCSU vs 32% allowed for Albany)

CCSU with another haul here, adding 7 while Albany adds 3 and we have 1 push. That totals it out to CCSU 12, Albany 4, Push 1. Of course the challenge here is level of opponents. The strength of schedule per Massey for CCSU was 101st, while Albany is 31st. So sometimes lining these stats up makes it tough.

Players to watch – Albany

#21 Karl Mofor, RB: Workhorse running back, 5’8” but 225 pounds, he’s got 1204 rushing yards and 9 TDs this season, he also had 276 receiving yards and 1 more receiving TD.

#18 Jeff Undercuffler, QB: Nice stat line for the 6-5, 231 QB. 247 passing yards per game, 33 TDs, 7 INTs. Not a rushing QB but does have 1 rushing TD.

#4 Juwan Green, WR: 1158 yards and 14 receiving TDs for the senior WR, he’s got 51 rushing yards too.

#12 Eli Mencer, DE: While Albany has some other statistical standouts on defense, this guy really stood out with 22 TFLs and 13.5 sacks on the season, he’s forced 5 fumbles, recovered 3, and has 54 total tackles. He’s on the Buchanan Finalist list.

Players to watch – Central Connecticut

#1 Aaron Winchester, QB: The 6-2, 190 lb senior is on the Walter Payton watch list, he’s got 782 rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs, as a passer he’s throwing for 201 per game and has 19 TDs and just 4 INTs.

#2 Tyshaun James, WR: a 6-3 target that’s used all over, he leads the team with 955 receiving yards and 9 TDs. He’s also got 157 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs.

#5 Danley Exilhomme, RB: Lots of guys running the ball in this offense, of their stable of backs he only trails Winchester in yardage, he’s got 566, and has 8 rushing TDs. Now don’t confuse him with his twin brother, #1 DJ Exilhomme, who is a safety and has 67 tackles and 3 forced fumbles, and scored 2 defensive TDs.

#10 Dexter Lawson, CB: The guy has 6 interceptions this season including one for a pick-6. He’s also their punt returner and is averaging almost 11 yards per return.

Keys to the game

- Are the numbers for real? For CCSU they’re a whopping +17 and have snagged 20 picks to losing just 4. That’s damned impressive regardless the level of competition. Their defensive stats look great and they’ve got a gamer QB that’s on watch lists. But they’re not playing CAA-level talent. On the flip side of things Albany coasted into the playoffs without having to face the other top teams in the CAA, so how legit are they really? This adds an interesting level to this game.

- Will Albany be able to stop CCSU’s offense? The Great Danes defensive stats are ok, but not incredible, while CCSU seems to really make their money running the ball and spreading it around.

- Can CCSU contain/slow down Albany’s trio of studs? Albany on the stat sheet really looks like a team that’s got one guy in each skill spot that will pose a problem, a good QB, a stud RB, and a stud WR. Will CCSU be able to keep these guys under wraps a little bit?

- I’m really torn on this game. There’s a side of me that says Albany should win since they’re a “bigger / better” conference, but they just don’t show a body of work and some signature wins that helps that argument. Big Sky auto-qualifiers in prior years know all too well that “smaller school” teams like San Diego can for sure come in and get a win, I almost am leaning to CCSU, but I’m still hesitant since they’re in a smaller conference. Could be one hell of a game!



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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by cats2506 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 5:38 pm

Thanks for doing this Brint, I listened to the Griz Fan Podcast for the first time today, very interesting, I enjoyed it.


PlayerRep wrote:The point is not the record of the teams UM beat, it's the quality and record of the teams UM almost beat.

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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by technoCat » Tue Nov 26, 2019 5:40 pm

Thanks Brint!


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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by thefrank1 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:02 pm

Nice work, thanks and here's to an all Montana final.


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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by lutecat » Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:09 pm

Thanks Remax. Thank you for taking the time to do that.

It sure would be easy to say Albany because of level of competition. But +a million in takeaways makes me hesitate.



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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by cats2506 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:36 pm

You got to remember that "The CAA is the SEC of the FCS" :roll:


PlayerRep wrote:The point is not the record of the teams UM beat, it's the quality and record of the teams UM almost beat.

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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by Camo_Cat » Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:22 pm

Wow - nice work Brint! My gut is telling me we'll get Albany and UM will get Villanova.



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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by catsRus » Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:35 pm

Thanks! I remember you did some for us last year in the playoffs and was hoping you would again.


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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by Catsrgrood » Tue Nov 26, 2019 8:09 pm

Thanks Brint, always enjoy the breakdown.



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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by catsrback76 » Wed Nov 27, 2019 8:51 am

Thanks Brint, well done and very informative.THanks for keeping us in the loop.



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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by allcat » Wed Nov 27, 2019 9:21 am

Love your posts.


Now sorry for caring about Cat/griz too much. I've been properly chastised by the coach of the other team. :-^

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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by catatac » Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:05 am

Thanks Brint, really appreciate the write up! I do have a question for ya though. Why do you and some other Griz fans call it the Griz Cat game? Doesn't that sound awkward... or maybe it's just me?


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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by aucat » Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:12 am

Have you applied to be a consultant to the coaching staff? What a report, thanks!



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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by BWahlberg » Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:10 pm

catatac wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:05 am
Thanks Brint, really appreciate the write up! I do have a question for ya though. Why do you and some other Griz fans call it the Griz Cat game? Doesn't that sound awkward... or maybe it's just me?
Ingrained order of operations for me being a Griz fan I suppose haha.



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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by allcat » Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:19 pm

BWahlberg wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:10 pm
catatac wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:05 am
Thanks Brint, really appreciate the write up! I do have a question for ya though. Why do you and some other Griz fans call it the Griz Cat game? Doesn't that sound awkward... or maybe it's just me?
Ingrained order of operations for me being a Griz fan I suppose haha.
Can you post your Villanova game summary over here? I just don't play on egriz.


Now sorry for caring about Cat/griz too much. I've been properly chastised by the coach of the other team. :-^

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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by Helcat72 » Wed Nov 27, 2019 11:13 pm

Go to YouTube and look at these two teams play. Look at the way their athletes are built. CCSU has several speedy athletic type players, but they are not "built" like several of the UAlbany players. Look at their interior linemen. Several are like 6'2" 280. It is definitely possible that they are giant killers, but they are playing in Albany.

I said before UAlbany reminds me of NAU, and CCSU reminds me of Norfolk St.


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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by BWahlberg » Wed Nov 27, 2019 11:21 pm

allcat wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:19 pm
BWahlberg wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:10 pm
catatac wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:05 am
Thanks Brint, really appreciate the write up! I do have a question for ya though. Why do you and some other Griz fans call it the Griz Cat game? Doesn't that sound awkward... or maybe it's just me?
Ingrained order of operations for me being a Griz fan I suppose haha.
Can you post your Villanova game summary over here? I just don't play on egriz.
The one I did that mimics this? Sure thing;

No full scouting report this week, however wanted to share what to look for as these two teams battle out to come to Missoula the following weekend. I will post the stat comparison that I do for scouting weeks though:

Villanova Wildcats 9-3

12th SRS rating
8th in FCS stats poll
127th Sagarin

Signature wins, beat Towson 52-45 in OT when Towson was ranked 5th in the FCS. Also beat then ranked Colgate by 20, and then ranked Maine by 16. None of these teams would go on to make it to the playoffs though, Towson was a bubble team at 7-5 but didn’t get in

Losses, lost 3 in a row, first against JMU by 14, then to Stony Brook and New Hampshire.

SE Louisiana Lions 7-4
16th SRS rating
26th FCS stats poll (top team in “also receiving votes”)
134th Sagarin

Signature wins, beat 8th seed UCA 34-0 on the road.

Losses, lost early to Ole Miss by 11, lost two in a row, falling to McNeese and Incarnate Word. McNeese finished with 7 wins on the season. Lost their last game of the year to Nicholls in a game where they lost by 1 point, and the game ended with SELA fumbling on the Nicholls 1 yard line.


General Stats

Passing yards per game SELA (330 for SELA vs 259 for Nova)
Rushing yards per game Nova (144 for SELA vs 192 for Nova)
Total offense SELA (474 for SELA vs 451 for Nova)
Passing yards allowed per game Nova (275 for SELA vs 243 for Nova)
Rushing yards allowed per game SELA (114 for SELA vs 128 for Nova)
Total defense Nova (389 for SELA vs 371 for Nova)

Each team grabs 3. SELA showing the slightly better offense, statistically, while Nova the better defense

Offense points scored Nova (33.6 for SELA vs 36.8 for Nova)
Defense points allowed SELA (24 for SELA vs 24.5 for Nova)
Turnover margin Nova – (-1 for SELA / +1 for Nova)
Fieldgoal % SELA (67% for SELA vs 40% for Nova)
Punt Returns SELA (9.8 yards for SELA vs 7 yards for Nova)
Kick Returns Nova (19.6 yards for SELA vs 23.2 yards for Nova)
T.O.P. SELA (31:21 for SELA vs 30:52 for Nova)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) SELA (56% SELA / 62% Nova)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Nova (73% SELA / 74% Nova)
3rd down offense Nova – (41% for SELA / 49% for Nova)
3rd down defense SELA – (35% allowed for SELA vs 39% allowed for Nova)

Villanova adds 5 while SELA picks up 6. That puts SELA with a slight edge of 9-8.

Players to watch – Villanova

#12 Daniel Smith, QB: accounts for 97.6% of all passes thrown this season, a mainstay starter all season long. Averaging 249 yards per game, has thrown 31 TDs to 10 INTs. Has also run for 367 yards and 10 TDs this season.

#2 Changa Hodge, WR: Nova’s main dude. 1020 yards and 12 TDs this season, averaging 17.3 yards per catch.

#43 Forrest Rhyne, LB: 6-1, 225, he’s got 105 tackles to lead the team. Also has 13.5 TFLs, 2nd best on the team, and a team leading 6.5 sacks.

Players to watch – SE Louisiana

#9 Chason Virgil / #15 Cole Kelly, QBs: Without diving too in-depth on it I think they split roles here. Virgil is the pocket-QB. He’s averaging 262 yards/game, has 18 TDs and 10 INTs, on the season he’s gained a total of 75 yards and has 1 rushing TD. While Kelly is averaging just 68 yards/game passing he does have 10 TDs to 1 INT, additionally he’s the 3rd best rusher on the team with almost 200 yards and 8 rushing TDs.

#81 Austin Mitchell, WR: This guy seems to do a little bit of everything for SELA. He has a team best 794 yards receiving and 8 TDs. He’s also one of their two punt returners and their leading kick returner.

#92 Isaac Adeyemi-Berglund, DE: At 6-2, 250 this guy must be a damn good edge rusher. He leads the team with 15 TFLs, 7.5 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles.

Keys to the game

- If Villanova can successfully run against SELA’s defense. SELA’s pass defense is a little suspect, and if Nova with their dynamic QB can get them both on the ground and in the air, they should win the game.

- If it comes down to a kick Villanova could be in trouble, their kicker shows no consistency, he doesn’t just miss long kicks but short ones too… he’s even missed 4 PATs.

- Villanova is 4-2 on the road while SELA is 3-2 at home.

- I have a gut feeling Nova wins this one, I was a little surprised to see SELA holding a slight statistical advantage. Villanova had the 11th most difficult regular season schedule while SELA’s was 29th – per the Massey ratings. Suggests to me that ‘Nova is a little more battle tested.



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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by Rich K » Wed Nov 27, 2019 11:32 pm

I'm going to post this here because it's Brint's tweet, and since we don't want him to have to many threads over here.... haha
Anyway, it's a good listen


Image

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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by BelgradeBobcat » Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:23 am

Rich K wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 11:32 pm
I'm going to post this here because it's Brint's tweet, and since we don't want him to have to many threads over here.... haha
Anyway, it's a good listen
So...not being an irrepressible douche is good for your brand? The Jeff Choate secret it out! Dang.



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Re: Albany vs Central Connecticut State mini-scouting report

Post by Catfanatic84 » Thu Nov 28, 2019 9:34 am

BWahlberg wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 11:21 pm
allcat wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:19 pm
BWahlberg wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:10 pm
catatac wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:05 am
Thanks Brint, really appreciate the write up! I do have a question for ya though. Why do you and some other Griz fans call it the Griz Cat game? Doesn't that sound awkward... or maybe it's just me?
Ingrained order of operations for me being a Griz fan I suppose haha.
Can you post your Villanova game summary over here? I just don't play on egriz.
The one I did that mimics this? Sure thing;

No full scouting report this week, however wanted to share what to look for as these two teams battle out to come to Missoula the following weekend. I will post the stat comparison that I do for scouting weeks though:

Villanova Wildcats 9-3

12th SRS rating
8th in FCS stats poll
127th Sagarin

Signature wins, beat Towson 52-45 in OT when Towson was ranked 5th in the FCS. Also beat then ranked Colgate by 20, and then ranked Maine by 16. None of these teams would go on to make it to the playoffs though, Towson was a bubble team at 7-5 but didn’t get in

Losses, lost 3 in a row, first against JMU by 14, then to Stony Brook and New Hampshire.

SE Louisiana Lions 7-4
16th SRS rating
26th FCS stats poll (top team in “also receiving votes”)
134th Sagarin

Signature wins, beat 8th seed UCA 34-0 on the road.

Losses, lost early to Ole Miss by 11, lost two in a row, falling to McNeese and Incarnate Word. McNeese finished with 7 wins on the season. Lost their last game of the year to Nicholls in a game where they lost by 1 point, and the game ended with SELA fumbling on the Nicholls 1 yard line.


General Stats

Passing yards per game SELA (330 for SELA vs 259 for Nova)
Rushing yards per game Nova (144 for SELA vs 192 for Nova)
Total offense SELA (474 for SELA vs 451 for Nova)
Passing yards allowed per game Nova (275 for SELA vs 243 for Nova)
Rushing yards allowed per game SELA (114 for SELA vs 128 for Nova)
Total defense Nova (389 for SELA vs 371 for Nova)

Each team grabs 3. SELA showing the slightly better offense, statistically, while Nova the better defense

Offense points scored Nova (33.6 for SELA vs 36.8 for Nova)
Defense points allowed SELA (24 for SELA vs 24.5 for Nova)
Turnover margin Nova – (-1 for SELA / +1 for Nova)
Fieldgoal % SELA (67% for SELA vs 40% for Nova)
Punt Returns SELA (9.8 yards for SELA vs 7 yards for Nova)
Kick Returns Nova (19.6 yards for SELA vs 23.2 yards for Nova)
T.O.P. SELA (31:21 for SELA vs 30:52 for Nova)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) SELA (56% SELA / 62% Nova)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Nova (73% SELA / 74% Nova)
3rd down offense Nova – (41% for SELA / 49% for Nova)
3rd down defense SELA – (35% allowed for SELA vs 39% allowed for Nova)

Villanova adds 5 while SELA picks up 6. That puts SELA with a slight edge of 9-8.

Players to watch – Villanova

#12 Daniel Smith, QB: accounts for 97.6% of all passes thrown this season, a mainstay starter all season long. Averaging 249 yards per game, has thrown 31 TDs to 10 INTs. Has also run for 367 yards and 10 TDs this season.

#2 Changa Hodge, WR: Nova’s main dude. 1020 yards and 12 TDs this season, averaging 17.3 yards per catch.

#43 Forrest Rhyne, LB: 6-1, 225, he’s got 105 tackles to lead the team. Also has 13.5 TFLs, 2nd best on the team, and a team leading 6.5 sacks.

Players to watch – SE Louisiana

#9 Chason Virgil / #15 Cole Kelly, QBs: Without diving too in-depth on it I think they split roles here. Virgil is the pocket-QB. He’s averaging 262 yards/game, has 18 TDs and 10 INTs, on the season he’s gained a total of 75 yards and has 1 rushing TD. While Kelly is averaging just 68 yards/game passing he does have 10 TDs to 1 INT, additionally he’s the 3rd best rusher on the team with almost 200 yards and 8 rushing TDs.

#81 Austin Mitchell, WR: This guy seems to do a little bit of everything for SELA. He has a team best 794 yards receiving and 8 TDs. He’s also one of their two punt returners and their leading kick returner.

#92 Isaac Adeyemi-Berglund, DE: At 6-2, 250 this guy must be a damn good edge rusher. He leads the team with 15 TFLs, 7.5 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles.

Keys to the game

- If Villanova can successfully run against SELA’s defense. SELA’s pass defense is a little suspect, and if Nova with their dynamic QB can get them both on the ground and in the air, they should win the game.

- If it comes down to a kick Villanova could be in trouble, their kicker shows no consistency, he doesn’t just miss long kicks but short ones too… he’s even missed 4 PATs.

- Villanova is 4-2 on the road while SELA is 3-2 at home.

- I have a gut feeling Nova wins this one, I was a little surprised to see SELA holding a slight statistical advantage. Villanova had the 11th most difficult regular season schedule while SELA’s was 29th – per the Massey ratings. Suggests to me that ‘Nova is a little more battle tested.
Brint...thanks for the breakdown for both games...interesting stuff. BTW....my Griz buddy and I dream of a Cat/Griz natty....the entire state would empty that weekend.



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