The seeding is jumbled after Saturday’s games. Weber and UNI and Furman losing puts some work into the committee. The last week leaves only a few key games. Most of the potential teams for a seed have an easy game. That is unfortunate for the Cats who need some teams to lose to help our position. Here is a simple look as I see it with lots of help from other posters, podcasts and other web sites.
The Polls – As others have pointed out the only poll the committee can look at is the NCAA approved coaches poll. So that is the one we will look at. Here is how it sits now
1) NDSU
2) JMU
3) Montana
4) Sac State
5) SDSU
6) Illinois State
7) Weber State
8.) Montana State
9) Kennesaw State
10) Northern Iowa
11) Central Arkansas
12) Monmouth
13) Florida A&M (on probation)
14) Villanova
15) Furman
16) SEMO
17) Wofford
A couple of comments on the coaches poll:
1) No one else (Stats, Athlon, Hero Sports, Any Given Saturday) has Kennesaw State in the Top 10 and ahead of Monmouth. This is simply wrong and shows you how little coaches actually pay attention to anything. KSU has two D2 wins; got stomped by Monmouth and plays an extremely weak SOS. The chances of KSU getting a seed are ABSOULTE ZERO. You can bet on it. Good thing AD’s are on the committee and not coaches.
2) Ok, second point. Do the coaches actually watch any games or look at the scores? Furman just lost to Wofford (big time!), has one more loss than Wofford; plays nearly the same schedule and finishes its final game against NAIA “Point University” (is there even such a school?). Why is Furman two spots ahead of Wofford? Simply unreal. Every other poll has Wofford way ahead of Furman.
3) One web site, not to be named, has Monmouth as the #8 seed. At the same time, the same site has Kennesaw State OUT of the playoffs. These teams both play in the weak Big South; play a very similar schedule and have poor SOS (18 teams ahead of Monmouth in Sagarin). Yes, Monmouth beat KSU but the Grizzlies crushed Monmouth and so would any MVFC or Big Sky playoff team. No way they get a seed unless everyone else loses on Saturday and then it might only be the number #8 seed even then.
4) I believe other than Florida A&M, Kennesaw, Furman, and SEMO, the top 17 teams will be in a discussion for a seed depending on what happens on the final Saturday.
Guaranteed Seeds (Regardless of what happens Saturday)
1) NDSU
2) JMU
Guaranteed a seed if they win on Saturday
3) Montana
4) Sac State
5) SDSU
6) Weber State
7) Illinois State
Fighting for the last seed (or 2) and will be in the conversation if they win
1) MSU
2) Wofford
3) Villanova
4) UNI
5) Central Arkansas
6 ) Monmouth (Last minute addition - I really don't see it)
Games this weekend
There are not very many games of any consequence this Saturday. Here is a quick rundown.
Easy Games – All SHOULD run away with a win
NDSU vs Southern Ill. Should be easy win but NDSU gets #1 seed no matter what.
JMU vs Rhode Island. Worst team in CAA. Almost beat Maine but nonetheless JMU dispatches.
UNI vs Western Ill. Sure wish WIU would come alive for one game! Hard to imagine. UNI loss is best for Cats.
Weber vs Idaho State. Quite a few posters call ISU a dumpster fire. That is giving them too much credit.
Harder Games - Maybe
SDSU vs South Dakota. Rivalry game. Always played tough. Unfortunately playing at SDSU.
Ill. State vs Youngstown State. After a stellar start, YSU fell apart but could steal a win.
Villanova vs Delaware. Delaware took one from Stony Brook last week. Do they have one more surprise in them?
UCA vs Incarnate Word. 6-5 on the year, UIW may make the game difficult for UCA.
Wofford vs The Citadel. Citadel lost last week or this would be for an at-large spot.
Sac State vs UC Davis. Rivalry. Thomson not at the top of his game. Could be an upset.
Only game ranked vs ranked
UM vs MSU: What can be said? Win, baby win.
Who could lose?
Realistically I think UCA, Wofford, and Villanova have a reasonable possibility of losing. However, all three of those teams are ranked below the Cats. An upset of one of the 7 teams ahead of us in the polls seems unlikely. Who could lose other than the Griz when they lose to the Cats? I think Ill. State, Sac State, and Weber seem like the best candidates but I only give it a 25% chance. This is why it is so important for the Cats to win – only realistic path to a seed.
Who and when do the Cats play?
This next section takes into account what I know about how the committee works (not much more than the rest of you); looks at the last few years of seeds; looks at SOS and rankings of the 11 teams under consideration, applies regionalization, and takes a best guess at what else might happen. I think my analysis is as good as any I have seen. But I will say this, the winner of Cat/Griz gets a seed. I am 100% sure. The only question will be if the Griz get a seed if they lose. I believe they will.
Scenario 1: Cats Beat Griz
As I outlined in depth in the Path to the Playoffs weekly post, I believed it was best for the Griz to beat Weber. And they did. So now instead of playing a weaker Griz team, we are taking on the #3 team in the nation and have the opportunity to make a statement win! However, a quick perusal of the supposedly unbiased FCS sites and we can see 100% of them have the Griz winning. Just the way it is. So my premise of “Cats Win” takes a little bit more work to figure out the options since no one predicts such an outcome.
• Best Case Option
o Cats win by 2 touchdowns or more
o 1 or 2 other seed-worthy teams lose. Best bets for a loss:
SDSU, Sac State, Nova, Wofford, UCA, Weber, Ill State.
o 1 or 2 higher seed-worthy teams win but have poor showings
Sac; Weber; Illinois State are good options
o Cats get the #6 or #7 seed.
o Even a #5 seed is possible with a loss by Weber.
o We move ahead of Sac/SDSU and UM
• Worst Case Option
o Cats squeak by in a win.
o Everyone ahead of us wins
o Cats get the dreaded #8 seed
(I admit there is a remote, remote chance that a poor win (what is that?) could result in the Griz getting the last seed and the Cats without a seed but past history does not support such a scenario. I think the Griz make it four Big Sky seeds in this scenario).
Scenario 2: Cats Lose to the Griz
Difficult for me to write about because from day one in August all my posts say the Cats win this game. I honestly believe it is possible but everything has to go just right. Defense has to play their best game. Offense needs all the players back. Play calling has to be innovative (just a few less run between the tackle plays, please?) And we need a break. Just like the Griz got with the two bad snaps against Weber. The Griz and the crowd did nothing to cause those bad snaps but Griz took advantage and turned the game into a runaway. There will be no runaway this Saturday that I am sure.
• Best Case Option
o Griz loss is close
o Home Game in first round
o We get a Southland Foe – UCA or SELA/Nicholls winner
o 2nd round has us matched with a #6 or #7 – Likely Weber or Sac State
• Worse Case
o Lose badly to the Griz
o Southern Ill. or UNI in first round or even San Diego who is on a tear.
o Home Game (Don’t see a scenario where we don’t get a home game)
o 2nd round is against a top 3 – NDSU or Griz
Finally, here is my most likely scenarios:
Cats win – Most Likely Option
• First Round Bye
• #6 seed
• Teams playing into our game:
o San Diego
o UCA
o SEMO (non-conference rematches only applies to first game)
o Nicholls/SELA winner
o Southern Ill/Northern Iowa (Sure hope not)
Cats lose – Most Likely Option
• First Game: Home game against a Southland Foe (UCA or SELA/Nicholls winner) or San Diego. I prefer any Southland team.
• Second Game: At Weber as a #6 or #7 seed.
• Both of these games are winnable in my mind. This would put us in the quarter finals against JMU or against the Griz in Missoula.
• Seems entirely possible.
The committee MUST give lots of consideration to regional matchups. They are only required to avoid first round conference rematches. After the first round any match up is allowed. However, as best as possible the first round games are regionalized to the second round. This is why you see so many Big Sky teams playing each other. There is simply not enough teams in the West. Given we have not played Weber, I expect it is more likely we will be placed in a bracket where the second round we play Weber. I don’t see this as a particularly bad situation. A number of web sites have had MSU-San Diego in the first round and then the winner playing in Missoula. This is based on regionalization. I do not see the committee making the Griz play the Bobcats at home after beating them on the road. This would be a bad seed for UM and MSU. As the Griz have moved up in seeds to #3, they should not be playing a current #8 Montana in their first game. They should get a better bracket. What is the point of seeding if you play a team just outside the seed group. That said, travel constraints make for strange bedfellows and there is a strong propensity to keep west teams out west.
Final Thoughts
• Cat/Griz will be for a seed. Loser likely does not get one although I think it is possible in a close loss that Griz still get a seed and four Big Sky teams get a seed. I know the committee loves the MVFC but I don't see UNI getting a seed at this point.
• Weber is playing poorly. Could they fall apart against ISU? Maybe but I think they are beatable in their first playoff game at home.
• Villanova will be right on the edge of getting a seed. If they win their last game and Cats lose and someone unexpected falls, they might squeeze in.
• I think Big Sky and MVFC both get 3 seeds. JMU gets only CAA seed. Last seed goes to either Big Sky or MVFC team based on what happens.
• We want to avoid the following - 1) the #8 seed; 2) playing San Diego in the first round if we don't get a bye; 3) a 2nd round matchup with the Griz in Missoula. I see no way the committee will reward the Griz as the #3 seed in the country with an immediate rematch with the Bobcats. That would really piss off everyone.....I long for the days with only 5 seeds and 12 teams got a bye... Nostalgia.
Go Cats!
