Re: MSU vs DumB predictions
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:36 pm
It's all heart this week. No analysis of any kind. Cats win!
Not accurate. Texas Tech and Sac State are considerably better teams than UM. SEMO and perhaps even UND (Way better than record indicates) are possibly in the same caliber although I would give the not to Griz being better than both these teams, but not "by far".RobertoGato wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:59 pmThis is the hardest game of the season to call.
UM is easily the best opponent that the Cats will face in the regular season. But they get them at home.
The Cats have scored 41 points at home, on average, as opposed to 28 on the road. This is an especially striking difference in that the Cats' two best opponents have come in home games.
The Grizzlies average 34 points on the road, vs. 46 points at home. They also allow 27 points/game on the road and only 19 at home.
SAC is the best comp for both teams in this spot. They have proven to be better than both UM and MSU. They are MSU's only home loss (13 point loss) and UM's only road loss (27 point loss). MSU could have won that game. They turned the ball over at the SAC 22, the SAC 13, and the SAC 2, once on an ill-advised interception and twice on downs. They certainly deserved to lose because they didn't close the deal and score, but they moved the offense well enough to have a real shot at beating SAC. UM can't make the same claim about their game, but then they were playing SAC on the road. I don't think MSU would have had the same shot to in in Sacramento that they had in Bozeman.
All of that to say, I see nothing here to point me strongly in either direction. And then on top of that, a lot of conventional wisdom goes out the window when you're talking about this rivalry. Choate has beaten the Griz when the Cats were clearly the lesser team.
I am going to predict a Cat victory for two reasons.
#1: I'm a Cat fan. So that's an easy tie breaker.
#2: The Cats have really clamped down on passing attacks since the SAC game. UM's passing O versus MSU's passing D is going to be a huge deciding factor in this game.
-Nate Ketteringham (UND) is averaging 6.7 YPA on the season and throwing better than a TD per game. The Cats held him to 6.1 YPA and no scores.
-Chris Helbig (SUU) is averaging 7.1 YPA on the season and throwing better than a TD per game. The Cats held him to 5.5 YPA, no scores, and an INT.
-Jacob Knipp (UNC) is averaging 7.1 YPA on the season and throwing better than a TD per game. The Cats held him to 5.8 YPA, 1 score (with 9 minutes left, down 45-7), and an INT.
-Jake Maier (UCD) is averaging 7.3 YPA on the season and throwing better than 2 TD per game. The Cats held him to 5.5 YPA, no scores, and an INT.
So lately the Cats have typically been holding passers about 1.5 yards below their average in YPA and a touchdown or more below their average. They have not allowed a passing touchdown during a competitive portion of a game in four straight weeks (SUU scored one against backups with 5 min left, down 42-0).
So if they can hold Sneed, an 8.1 YPA and 2 TD/game player, to ~6.5 YPA and 1 score, they will have a much better chance to win the game.
I am going with:
Cats: 27
Griz: 24
I am not considering the Power 5 schools for either team. I don't think those results are informative at all.catatac wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:04 pmNot accurate. Texas Tech and Sac State are considerably better teams than UM. SEMO and perhaps even UND (Way better than record indicates) are possibly in the same caliber although I would give the not to Griz being better than both these teams, but not "by far".RobertoGato wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:59 pmThis is the hardest game of the season to call.
UM is easily the best opponent that the Cats will face in the regular season. But they get them at home.
The Cats have scored 41 points at home, on average, as opposed to 28 on the road. This is an especially striking difference in that the Cats' two best opponents have come in home games.
The Grizzlies average 34 points on the road, vs. 46 points at home. They also allow 27 points/game on the road and only 19 at home.
SAC is the best comp for both teams in this spot. They have proven to be better than both UM and MSU. They are MSU's only home loss (13 point loss) and UM's only road loss (27 point loss). MSU could have won that game. They turned the ball over at the SAC 22, the SAC 13, and the SAC 2, once on an ill-advised interception and twice on downs. They certainly deserved to lose because they didn't close the deal and score, but they moved the offense well enough to have a real shot at beating SAC. UM can't make the same claim about their game, but then they were playing SAC on the road. I don't think MSU would have had the same shot to in in Sacramento that they had in Bozeman.
All of that to say, I see nothing here to point me strongly in either direction. And then on top of that, a lot of conventional wisdom goes out the window when you're talking about this rivalry. Choate has beaten the Griz when the Cats were clearly the lesser team.
I am going to predict a Cat victory for two reasons.
#1: I'm a Cat fan. So that's an easy tie breaker.
#2: The Cats have really clamped down on passing attacks since the SAC game. UM's passing O versus MSU's passing D is going to be a huge deciding factor in this game.
-Nate Ketteringham (UND) is averaging 6.7 YPA on the season and throwing better than a TD per game. The Cats held him to 6.1 YPA and no scores.
-Chris Helbig (SUU) is averaging 7.1 YPA on the season and throwing better than a TD per game. The Cats held him to 5.5 YPA, no scores, and an INT.
-Jacob Knipp (UNC) is averaging 7.1 YPA on the season and throwing better than a TD per game. The Cats held him to 5.8 YPA, 1 score (with 9 minutes left, down 45-7), and an INT.
-Jake Maier (UCD) is averaging 7.3 YPA on the season and throwing better than 2 TD per game. The Cats held him to 5.5 YPA, no scores, and an INT.
So lately the Cats have typically been holding passers about 1.5 yards below their average in YPA and a touchdown or more below their average. They have not allowed a passing touchdown during a competitive portion of a game in four straight weeks (SUU scored one against backups with 5 min left, down 42-0).
So if they can hold Sneed, an 8.1 YPA and 2 TD/game player, to ~6.5 YPA and 1 score, they will have a much better chance to win the game.
I am going with:
Cats: 27
Griz: 24
I think it comes down to Rovig too. For the Cats to win I think he has to have a good enough game to keep the Griz defense honest and respect the pass. This is one of the better defenses UM has had in quite a while but have given up big yards in the air at times. I know the Cats are loaded at running back but the Griz LB's are very good as well. I think they will load the box and force Rovig to beat them with his arm. Should be an interesting matchup.utucats wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:29 pmIt comes down to Rovig. I was encouraged by his play against Davis. He played smart and got rid of some quick passes with the d bearing down on him. That’s what it will take. Our offense is going to run the ball plenty but when Rovig has chances against this weak secondary he has to capitalize.
Our defense is stout and I think we’ll make it real tough and Sneed and Co.
UM averages 34/game on the road, so there's a real chance that you're correct. But they also have only played one good defense away from WaGriz and they only managed 22 points. So it wouldn't be surprising if the Cats held them 7-10 points below their road average. But to your point, 30+ wouldn't be some shocking surprise.coloradocat wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:11 pmA lot of people here think we'll hold the griz under 30 (24 specifically in most cases). I hope so too but Sac St is the only FCS team to hold them under 30. Our defense is great but I still think they find a way to get to the 30s. I don't think they'll score 5 TDs (my earlier prediction was 32-31) but I think they'll find four of them and give us one as well. They are more ready for this game than they've been in years and it will be a hard fought 60 minutes.
This will certainly be the rhetoric this week. Fans will over analyze stats and records until Saturday morning.
catatac wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:08 pmI agree with you but I’m a “ don’t count your eggs before they are hatched”kind of guy. I just have been disappointed to many times.superbobcat wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:46 amI hate this week. I hate reading all the griz are great posts and how bobby ball is back. I hate the arrogance of the average griz fan who has never been to missoula a day in their life but this week are all decked out. However, I do like how we are playing right now and I do like that we have them at home. I do believe it will be a good game and I like that. I like the fact that both teams have a lot to play for and more than likely both will be in the playoffs. With all that said, I believe this Bobcat TEAM is the better TEAM, I believe we are tougher, and I believe that we will win 28-20.
Sorry Super, not calling you out here but why do people keep posting it this way? Is there any possibility in the universe that either team doesn't make the playoffs? I don't think there is.