MSU vs DumB predictions

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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by Hawks86 » Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:36 pm

It's all heart this week. No analysis of any kind. Cats win!


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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by Catastrophy11 » Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:38 pm

Griz 51
Cats 6

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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by JDoub » Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:39 pm

Bobcats 28-27



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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by BadlandsGrizFanAgain » Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:42 pm

24-10 Griz....at halftime

Choate starts to panic about Rovigs deer in headlight decision making.....brings Troy Anderson in the rest of the game for some magic, but its too much to overcome.

34-23 Griz BSC champs and #3 seed in Playoffs. Cats drop to #10.



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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by MSU Toddler » Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:43 pm

Your Montana State Fighting Bobcats = 29
The West-Bonner-Community-College-of-Dance-and-Fast-Food-Arts = 22

FTMFG!


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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by RobertoGato » Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:59 pm

This is the hardest game of the season to call.

UM is easily the best opponent that the Cats will face in the regular season. But they get them at home.

The Cats have scored 41 points at home, on average, as opposed to 28 on the road. This is an especially striking difference in that the Cats' two best opponents have come in home games.

The Grizzlies average 34 points on the road, vs. 46 points at home. They also allow 27 points/game on the road and only 19 at home.

SAC is the best comp for both teams in this spot. They have proven to be better than both UM and MSU. They are MSU's only home loss (13 point loss) and UM's only road loss (27 point loss). MSU could have won that game. They turned the ball over at the SAC 22, the SAC 13, and the SAC 2, once on an ill-advised interception and twice on downs. They certainly deserved to lose because they didn't close the deal and score, but they moved the offense well enough to have a real shot at beating SAC. UM can't make the same claim about their game, but then they were playing SAC on the road. I don't think MSU would have had the same shot to in in Sacramento that they had in Bozeman.

All of that to say, I see nothing here to point me strongly in either direction. And then on top of that, a lot of conventional wisdom goes out the window when you're talking about this rivalry. Choate has beaten the Griz when the Cats were clearly the lesser team.

I am going to predict a Cat victory for two reasons.

#1: I'm a Cat fan. So that's an easy tie breaker.

#2: The Cats have really clamped down on passing attacks since the SAC game. UM's passing O versus MSU's passing D is going to be a huge deciding factor in this game.

-Nate Ketteringham (UND) is averaging 6.7 YPA on the season and throwing better than a TD per game. The Cats held him to 6.1 YPA and no scores.
-Chris Helbig (SUU) is averaging 7.1 YPA on the season and throwing better than a TD per game. The Cats held him to 5.5 YPA, no scores, and an INT.
-Jacob Knipp (UNC) is averaging 7.1 YPA on the season and throwing better than a TD per game. The Cats held him to 5.8 YPA, 1 score (with 9 minutes left, down 45-7), and an INT.
-Jake Maier (UCD) is averaging 7.3 YPA on the season and throwing better than 2 TD per game. The Cats held him to 5.5 YPA, no scores, and an INT.

So lately the Cats have typically been holding passers about 1.5 yards below their average in YPA and a touchdown or more below their average. They have not allowed a passing touchdown during a competitive portion of a game in four straight weeks (SUU scored one against backups with 5 min left, down 42-0).

So if they can hold Sneed, an 8.1 YPA and 2 TD/game player, to ~6.5 YPA and 1 score, they will have a much better chance to win the game.

I am going with:

Cats: 27
Griz: 24



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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by CARDIAC_CATS » Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:06 pm

I honestly have no clue on this one. The Griz have some definite FANGS with their WR crew this year and an OL that is blocking better. The Bobcats for sure better tackle better than Weber did or it will be off to the races for the Griz wide receivers. I do see us getting some shots at some Interceptions though the way Sneed likes to sling it. I feel better about Rovig in a 'busy' pocket now after the UC Davis game last week. I thought he was poised and hung in there well. The Cats absolutely need to start fast this week. The Griz love to Blitz, it is up to the Cats to make them pay!

Cats 35
Griz 28
Last edited by CARDIAC_CATS on Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by coloradocat » Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:11 pm

A lot of people here think we'll hold the griz under 30 (24 specifically in most cases). I hope so too but Sac St is the only FCS team to hold them under 30. Our defense is great but I still think they find a way to get to the 30s. I don't think they'll score 5 TDs (my earlier prediction was 32-31) but I think they'll find four of them and give us one as well. They are more ready for this game than they've been in years and it will be a hard fought 60 minutes.



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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by WeedKillinCat » Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:23 pm

Using the enrollment spread I predict the following

MSU (16799) 37
dUMb (10962) 24


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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by utucats » Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:29 pm

It comes down to Rovig. I was encouraged by his play against Davis. He played smart and got rid of some quick passes with the d bearing down on him. That’s what it will take. Our offense is going to run the ball plenty but when Rovig has chances against this weak secondary he has to capitalize.

Our defense is stout and I think we’ll make it real tough and Sneed and Co.


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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by snowxlt » Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:39 pm

The Cats defense has been playing very good last few weeks------the other schools team have struggled in the 1st half in many games, and seem to light it up in 2nd half-----the Cats will start strong and take lead into halftime----the other schools team will make a few early mistakes in 2nd half and start pressing once they don't get those early scores----Cats will Win 35-27 with a late score by the other schools team to make it look close but will be too little too late.


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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by bobcat99 » Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:03 pm

Both teams will come ready and prepared. Gonna be a hell of a game.

I think this game rests on how Rovig performs. The Griz secondary can be beat, but how will Rovig handle the constant blitzing and harassment? The Griz have a good run defense, which of course, is our strength as an offense.

Sneed is very talented, but their OL can't handle our DL. Josh Hill is finally back to his old self, and Andersen will make things difficult on Sneed as well.

My gut says it's something like UM by 10-14. My fandom says that Cats win by 3.

We shall see. Hopefully it's a good game no matter what.



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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by catatac » Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:04 pm

RobertoGato wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:59 pm
This is the hardest game of the season to call.

UM is easily the best opponent that the Cats will face in the regular season. But they get them at home.

The Cats have scored 41 points at home, on average, as opposed to 28 on the road. This is an especially striking difference in that the Cats' two best opponents have come in home games.

The Grizzlies average 34 points on the road, vs. 46 points at home. They also allow 27 points/game on the road and only 19 at home.

SAC is the best comp for both teams in this spot. They have proven to be better than both UM and MSU. They are MSU's only home loss (13 point loss) and UM's only road loss (27 point loss). MSU could have won that game. They turned the ball over at the SAC 22, the SAC 13, and the SAC 2, once on an ill-advised interception and twice on downs. They certainly deserved to lose because they didn't close the deal and score, but they moved the offense well enough to have a real shot at beating SAC. UM can't make the same claim about their game, but then they were playing SAC on the road. I don't think MSU would have had the same shot to in in Sacramento that they had in Bozeman.

All of that to say, I see nothing here to point me strongly in either direction. And then on top of that, a lot of conventional wisdom goes out the window when you're talking about this rivalry. Choate has beaten the Griz when the Cats were clearly the lesser team.

I am going to predict a Cat victory for two reasons.

#1: I'm a Cat fan. So that's an easy tie breaker.

#2: The Cats have really clamped down on passing attacks since the SAC game. UM's passing O versus MSU's passing D is going to be a huge deciding factor in this game.

-Nate Ketteringham (UND) is averaging 6.7 YPA on the season and throwing better than a TD per game. The Cats held him to 6.1 YPA and no scores.
-Chris Helbig (SUU) is averaging 7.1 YPA on the season and throwing better than a TD per game. The Cats held him to 5.5 YPA, no scores, and an INT.
-Jacob Knipp (UNC) is averaging 7.1 YPA on the season and throwing better than a TD per game. The Cats held him to 5.8 YPA, 1 score (with 9 minutes left, down 45-7), and an INT.
-Jake Maier (UCD) is averaging 7.3 YPA on the season and throwing better than 2 TD per game. The Cats held him to 5.5 YPA, no scores, and an INT.

So lately the Cats have typically been holding passers about 1.5 yards below their average in YPA and a touchdown or more below their average. They have not allowed a passing touchdown during a competitive portion of a game in four straight weeks (SUU scored one against backups with 5 min left, down 42-0).

So if they can hold Sneed, an 8.1 YPA and 2 TD/game player, to ~6.5 YPA and 1 score, they will have a much better chance to win the game.

I am going with:

Cats: 27
Griz: 24
Not accurate. Texas Tech and Sac State are considerably better teams than UM. SEMO and perhaps even UND (Way better than record indicates) are possibly in the same caliber although I would give the not to Griz being better than both these teams, but not "by far".


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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by RobertoGato » Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:12 pm

catatac wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:04 pm
RobertoGato wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:59 pm
This is the hardest game of the season to call.

UM is easily the best opponent that the Cats will face in the regular season. But they get them at home.

The Cats have scored 41 points at home, on average, as opposed to 28 on the road. This is an especially striking difference in that the Cats' two best opponents have come in home games.

The Grizzlies average 34 points on the road, vs. 46 points at home. They also allow 27 points/game on the road and only 19 at home.

SAC is the best comp for both teams in this spot. They have proven to be better than both UM and MSU. They are MSU's only home loss (13 point loss) and UM's only road loss (27 point loss). MSU could have won that game. They turned the ball over at the SAC 22, the SAC 13, and the SAC 2, once on an ill-advised interception and twice on downs. They certainly deserved to lose because they didn't close the deal and score, but they moved the offense well enough to have a real shot at beating SAC. UM can't make the same claim about their game, but then they were playing SAC on the road. I don't think MSU would have had the same shot to in in Sacramento that they had in Bozeman.

All of that to say, I see nothing here to point me strongly in either direction. And then on top of that, a lot of conventional wisdom goes out the window when you're talking about this rivalry. Choate has beaten the Griz when the Cats were clearly the lesser team.

I am going to predict a Cat victory for two reasons.

#1: I'm a Cat fan. So that's an easy tie breaker.

#2: The Cats have really clamped down on passing attacks since the SAC game. UM's passing O versus MSU's passing D is going to be a huge deciding factor in this game.

-Nate Ketteringham (UND) is averaging 6.7 YPA on the season and throwing better than a TD per game. The Cats held him to 6.1 YPA and no scores.
-Chris Helbig (SUU) is averaging 7.1 YPA on the season and throwing better than a TD per game. The Cats held him to 5.5 YPA, no scores, and an INT.
-Jacob Knipp (UNC) is averaging 7.1 YPA on the season and throwing better than a TD per game. The Cats held him to 5.8 YPA, 1 score (with 9 minutes left, down 45-7), and an INT.
-Jake Maier (UCD) is averaging 7.3 YPA on the season and throwing better than 2 TD per game. The Cats held him to 5.5 YPA, no scores, and an INT.

So lately the Cats have typically been holding passers about 1.5 yards below their average in YPA and a touchdown or more below their average. They have not allowed a passing touchdown during a competitive portion of a game in four straight weeks (SUU scored one against backups with 5 min left, down 42-0).

So if they can hold Sneed, an 8.1 YPA and 2 TD/game player, to ~6.5 YPA and 1 score, they will have a much better chance to win the game.

I am going with:

Cats: 27
Griz: 24
Not accurate. Texas Tech and Sac State are considerably better teams than UM. SEMO and perhaps even UND (Way better than record indicates) are possibly in the same caliber although I would give the not to Griz being better than both these teams, but not "by far".
I am not considering the Power 5 schools for either team. I don't think those results are informative at all.

You're right that SAC is a better team. I did mention in that post that they are better than either UM or MSU. I don't know why I opened the post that way, other than just being forgetful.

I do not believe SEMO or UND are on UM's level, personally.



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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by DaGriz » Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:13 pm

utucats wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:29 pm
It comes down to Rovig. I was encouraged by his play against Davis. He played smart and got rid of some quick passes with the d bearing down on him. That’s what it will take. Our offense is going to run the ball plenty but when Rovig has chances against this weak secondary he has to capitalize.

Our defense is stout and I think we’ll make it real tough and Sneed and Co.
I think it comes down to Rovig too. For the Cats to win I think he has to have a good enough game to keep the Griz defense honest and respect the pass. This is one of the better defenses UM has had in quite a while but have given up big yards in the air at times. I know the Cats are loaded at running back but the Griz LB's are very good as well. I think they will load the box and force Rovig to beat them with his arm. Should be an interesting matchup.

I'm not sure what to think of who wins. I'm not as impressed with the teams the Cats have beaten compared to the Griz and of the games I have watched both teams play I think UM looks more of a balanced team, but when it comes down to games like this, I don't think records or stats or anything else really matters. I think if the Griz lay an egg in the first half like they have done a few times and the Cats build a lead, it will be tough getting back in the game for the Griz, Cats will just control the clock with running. If Griz start out hot, they are hard to stop.


If it's a high scoring game I like the Griz to win, a low scoring game I think favors the Cats. Both teams are headed to the playoffs, I'd really like to see both teams healthy come post season. Go Griz.



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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by RobertoGato » Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:24 pm

coloradocat wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:11 pm
A lot of people here think we'll hold the griz under 30 (24 specifically in most cases). I hope so too but Sac St is the only FCS team to hold them under 30. Our defense is great but I still think they find a way to get to the 30s. I don't think they'll score 5 TDs (my earlier prediction was 32-31) but I think they'll find four of them and give us one as well. They are more ready for this game than they've been in years and it will be a hard fought 60 minutes.
UM averages 34/game on the road, so there's a real chance that you're correct. But they also have only played one good defense away from WaGriz and they only managed 22 points. So it wouldn't be surprising if the Cats held them 7-10 points below their road average. But to your point, 30+ wouldn't be some shocking surprise.

I really don't have a strong feeling about this game. The insight that stuck out to me was just how tough MSU has been on opposing QB's lately. So I went with a lower scoring affair.



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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by Mtcatfan » Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:31 pm

Cats D gets to Sneed-eker early and often.
Cats - 35
Griz - 17



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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by ilovethecats » Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:34 pm

DaGriz wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:13 pm
I'm not as impressed with the teams the Cats have beaten compared to the Griz
This will certainly be the rhetoric this week. Fans will over analyze stats and records until Saturday morning.

I’d just point out that the Griz have played exactly ONE winning team on the road this season. And that team beat them by more than 3 tds. South Dakota has a losing record. Portland State has a losing record. UC Davis has a losing record. Sac obviously is the only winner here and they destroyed the griz.

I’m one who truly believes none of that stuff matters come Saturday. Both coaches will have their teams ready to go. It’ll be a battle like it almost always is. But if fans are going to continue harping on who the Cats have played, I think the honest thing would be to look at who the griz have played on the road like they’ll have to do this weekend. It’s a great opportunity to get their first win against a team above 500 this year on the road!



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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by Helcat72 » Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:35 pm

Cats 27
Da bears 24


2019...Bobcats kicking booty

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Re: MSU vs DumB predictions

Post by superbobcat » Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:58 pm

catatac wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:08 pm
superbobcat wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:46 am
I hate this week. I hate reading all the griz are great posts and how bobby ball is back. I hate the arrogance of the average griz fan who has never been to missoula a day in their life but this week are all decked out. However, I do like how we are playing right now and I do like that we have them at home. I do believe it will be a good game and I like that. I like the fact that both teams have a lot to play for and more than likely both will be in the playoffs. With all that said, I believe this Bobcat TEAM is the better TEAM, I believe we are tougher, and I believe that we will win 28-20.
I agree with you but I’m a “ don’t count your eggs before they are hatched”kind of guy. I just have been disappointed to many times.

Sorry Super, not calling you out here but why do people keep posting it this way? Is there any possibility in the universe that either team doesn't make the playoffs? I don't think there is.



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