On The Road...

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Long Time Cat
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On The Road...

Post by Long Time Cat » Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:26 pm

Choate’s record on the road has been talked about at length but I thought a summary of it would be interesting. Is he as bad as some claim?

Stats are against FCS teams.
Not in the stats: Three FBS teams on the road, all loses. One D2 school at home, a win.

Home Away Overall
2016 2-3 1-3 3-6
2017 3-3 2-2 5-5
2018 6-1 2-4 8-5
2019 4-1 3-1 7-3

Total 15-8 8-10 23-18
Pct. .652 .444 .561

It’s easy to see the Cats are much better at home and this has been pointed out numerous times, with no big road wins other than at Wa-griz. What does this say about playing on the road? It’s tough. My guess is nearly every coach has a better home record. (Except NDSU 😉) What does this say about the future? Not much in my opinion. Why? Choate wasn’t over .500 overall as a coach until this year. Choate’s team generally finish strong. Choate has the best team he’s had since he started so he should have the best road record he’s had since he started. Plus I think they learned a lot from the UND loss.
In my opinion the odds say we win one of the next two. If we are an improved team, we win them both. UNC should be a slam dunk (#winbig), UCD winnable since they are not that good. I like our chances.
Through my blue and gold colored glasses I see 3 straight wins to finish the season. What say you?
Last edited by Long Time Cat on Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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JDoub
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Re: On The Road...

Post by JDoub » Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:40 pm

we have never played well in Greeley, even before Choate. when we were the better team in all respects, they've all been close games.

they're coming off a good win at ISU, despite ISU running for over 300 yards

so I don't see the game in Greeley as a slam dunk

I agree we should win one of the next two, I think we should win both. Unless we revert back to a UND-type mentality.

Cat-griz is shaping up to be a playoff game
Last edited by JDoub on Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Re: On The Road...

Post by technoCat » Sun Nov 03, 2019 7:20 pm

JDoub wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:40 pm
we have never played will in Greeley, even before Choate. when we were the better team in all respects, they've all been close games.

they're coming off a good win at ISU, despite ISU running for over 300 yards

so I don't see the game in Greeley as a slam dunk

I agree we should win one of the next two, I think we should win both. Unless we revert back to a UND-type mentality.

Cat-griz is shaping up to be a playoff game
Didn't SUU just come off a big win against ISU? Not really a good barometer for team improvement apparently.


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Re: On The Road...

Post by JDoub » Sun Nov 03, 2019 7:32 pm

technoCat wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 7:20 pm
JDoub wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:40 pm
we have never played will in Greeley, even before Choate. when we were the better team in all respects, they've all been close games.

they're coming off a good win at ISU, despite ISU running for over 300 yards

so I don't see the game in Greeley as a slam dunk

I agree we should win one of the next two, I think we should win both. Unless we revert back to a UND-type mentality.

Cat-griz is shaping up to be a playoff game
Didn't SUU just come off a big win against ISU? Not really a good barometer for team improvement apparently.
good point

good sign for us? I do hope we knock the ever living spit out of the bears and go up 50-0 in the first half

it would be nice to shake off the bad Greeley mojo once and for all



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Re: On The Road...

Post by KittieKop » Sun Nov 03, 2019 7:51 pm

So I went looking at schedules to see how we've actually fared against UNCU recently. I looked back to 2010, just to see the last decade. While we've beat them 5 times in a row since 2010, I was surprised to see we've only played them 5 times, and until last year, hadn't had them in Bozeman since 2010. In Colorado though, our widest margin of victory has been 10 pts (in the last 9 seasons. 31-21 in 2011).

EDIT: Since 2005 (the earliest the MSU site has game scores), MSU is 7-1 against UNCU, the only loss coming in 2007 in Greeley. So 4-0 at home, 3-1 in Greeley.


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Re: On The Road...

Post by JDoub » Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:05 pm

KittieKop wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 7:51 pm
So I went looking at schedules to see how we've actually fared against UNCU recently. I looked back to 2010, just to see the last decade. While we've beat them 5 times in a row since 2010, I was surprised to see we've only played them 5 times, and until last year, hadn't had them in Bozeman since 2010. In Colorado though, our widest margin of victory has been 10 pts (in the last 9 seasons. 31-21 in 2011).

EDIT: Since 2005 (the earliest the MSU site has game scores), MSU is 7-1 against UNCU, the only loss coming in 2007 in Greeley. So 4-0 at home, 3-1 in Greeley.
that's the thing about the bears -- we have never just blown them out like it seems we should, when other teams have. too close for comfort



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Re: On The Road...

Post by onceacat » Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:21 pm

Long Time Cat wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:26 pm
Choate’s record on the road has been talked about at length but I thought a summary of it would be interesting. Is he as bad as some claim?

Stats are against FCS teams.
Not in the stats: Three FBS teams on the road, all loses. One D2 school at home, a win.

Home Away Overall
2016 2-3 1-3 3-6
2017 3-3 2-2 5-5
2018 6-1 2-4 8-5
2019 4-1 2-2 6-3

Total 15-8 7-11 22-19
Pct. .652 .389 .536

It’s easy to see the Cats are much better at home and this has been pointed out numerous times, with no big road wins other than at Wa-griz. What does this say about playing on the road? It’s tough. My guess is nearly every coach has a better home record. (Except NDSU 😉) What does this say about the future? Not much in my opinion. Why? Choate wasn’t over .500 overall as a coach until this year. Choate’s team generally finish strong. Choate has the best team he’s had since he started so he should have the best road record he’s had since he started. Plus I think they learned a lot from the UND loss.
In my opinion the odds say we win one of the next two. If we are an improved team, we win them both. UNC should be a slam dunk (#winbig), UCD winnable since they are not that good. I like our chances.
Through my blue and gold colored glasses I see 3 straight wins to finish the season. What say you?
The computer geeks say that all other things being equal, home field is about a 3 point advantage. Which, means, that winning road games against quality opponents is sort of a "next step" for a team. (Some teams, especially at higher altitudes, like NAU, SUU, and MSU have even bigger home field advantages. NAU at 7,000 ft has probably the best homefield advantage in all of sports. It shows up year in and year out...this year, they've been blown out in every road game and won every home game.)

All that said, you sort of have to normalize out the road wins/losses. At home, MSU beat solid teams like SEMO this year and UIW and UWI last year, but has struggled on the road with bad teams like UIW (this year) and Poly.

UCD worries me a lot. They are a lot better than, say, Poly or UWI, and probably right in the same category with UND. I think its a 50-50 game.

The brawl is always a 50-50 game. And Bobby's job is probably at risk if he loses 2 times in a row. But the Cats have been really good at home...

I think 2-1 is pretty likely-like about a 50% chance. And 1-2 or 3-0 are probably each about 25% chance. Theres no way we lose all 3, though, unless 10 starters get suspended or some freak happening like that.



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Re: On The Road...

Post by onceacat » Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:23 pm

Long Time Cat wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:26 pm
Choate’s record on the road has been talked about at length but I thought a summary of it would be interesting. Is he as bad as some claim?

Stats are against FCS teams.
Not in the stats: Three FBS teams on the road, all loses. One D2 school at home, a win.

Home Away Overall
2016 2-3 1-3 3-6
2017 3-3 2-2 5-5
2018 6-1 2-4 8-5
2019 4-1 2-2 6-3

Total 15-8 7-11 22-19
Pct. .652 .389 .536

It’s easy to see the Cats are much better at home and this has been pointed out numerous times, with no big road wins other than at Wa-griz. What does this say about playing on the road? It’s tough. My guess is nearly every coach has a better home record. (Except NDSU 😉) What does this say about the future? Not much in my opinion. Why? Choate wasn’t over .500 overall as a coach until this year. Choate’s team generally finish strong. Choate has the best team he’s had since he started so he should have the best road record he’s had since he started. Plus I think they learned a lot from the UND loss.
In my opinion the odds say we win one of the next two. If we are an improved team, we win them both. UNC should be a slam dunk (#winbig), UCD winnable since they are not that good. I like our chances.
Through my blue and gold colored glasses I see 3 straight wins to finish the season. What say you?
Except Mike Kramer who had to have the team spend the night in Livingston before home games because they were so much worse at home.



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Re: On The Road...

Post by ilovethecats » Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:00 pm

We’ll roll unc. Not to talk crap. We’re just better



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Re: On The Road...

Post by WalkOn79 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:37 am

onceacat wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:21 pm
Long Time Cat wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:26 pm
Choate’s record on the road has been talked about at length but I thought a summary of it would be interesting. Is he as bad as some claim?

Stats are against FCS teams.
Not in the stats: Three FBS teams on the road, all loses. One D2 school at home, a win.

Home Away Overall
2016 2-3 1-3 3-6
2017 3-3 2-2 5-5
2018 6-1 2-4 8-5
2019 4-1 2-2 6-3

Total 15-8 7-11 22-19
Pct. .652 .389 .536

It’s easy to see the Cats are much better at home and this has been pointed out numerous times, with no big road wins other than at Wa-griz. What does this say about playing on the road? It’s tough. My guess is nearly every coach has a better home record. (Except NDSU 😉) What does this say about the future? Not much in my opinion. Why? Choate wasn’t over .500 overall as a coach until this year. Choate’s team generally finish strong. Choate has the best team he’s had since he started so he should have the best road record he’s had since he started. Plus I think they learned a lot from the UND loss.
In my opinion the odds say we win one of the next two. If we are an improved team, we win them both. UNC should be a slam dunk (#winbig), UCD winnable since they are not that good. I like our chances.
Through my blue and gold colored glasses I see 3 straight wins to finish the season. What say you?
The computer geeks say that all other things being equal, home field is about a 3 point advantage. Which, means, that winning road games against quality opponents is sort of a "next step" for a team. (Some teams, especially at higher altitudes, like NAU, SUU, and MSU have even bigger home field advantages. NAU at 7,000 ft has probably the best homefield advantage in all of sports. It shows up year in and year out...this year, they've been blown out in every road game and won every home game.)

All that said, you sort of have to normalize out the road wins/losses. At home, MSU beat solid teams like SEMO this year and UIW and UWI last year, but has struggled on the road with bad teams like UIW (this year) and Poly.

UCD worries me a lot. They are a lot better than, say, Poly or UWI, and probably right in the same category with UND. I think its a 50-50 game.

The brawl is always a 50-50 game. And Bobby's job is probably at risk if he loses 2 times in a row. But the Cats have been really good at home...

I think 2-1 is pretty likely-like about a 50% chance. And 1-2 or 3-0 are probably each about 25% chance. Theres no way we lose all 3, though, unless 10 starters get suspended or some freak happening like that.
No way bobby loses his job in year two with a winning record, regardless of how the Brawl turns out.


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onceacat
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Re: On The Road...

Post by onceacat » Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:57 am

WalkOn79 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:37 am
onceacat wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:21 pm
Long Time Cat wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:26 pm
Choate’s record on the road has been talked about at length but I thought a summary of it would be interesting. Is he as bad as some claim?

Stats are against FCS teams.
Not in the stats: Three FBS teams on the road, all loses. One D2 school at home, a win.

Home Away Overall
2016 2-3 1-3 3-6
2017 3-3 2-2 5-5
2018 6-1 2-4 8-5
2019 4-1 2-2 6-3

Total 15-8 7-11 22-19
Pct. .652 .389 .536

It’s easy to see the Cats are much better at home and this has been pointed out numerous times, with no big road wins other than at Wa-griz. What does this say about playing on the road? It’s tough. My guess is nearly every coach has a better home record. (Except NDSU 😉) What does this say about the future? Not much in my opinion. Why? Choate wasn’t over .500 overall as a coach until this year. Choate’s team generally finish strong. Choate has the best team he’s had since he started so he should have the best road record he’s had since he started. Plus I think they learned a lot from the UND loss.
In my opinion the odds say we win one of the next two. If we are an improved team, we win them both. UNC should be a slam dunk (#winbig), UCD winnable since they are not that good. I like our chances.
Through my blue and gold colored glasses I see 3 straight wins to finish the season. What say you?
The computer geeks say that all other things being equal, home field is about a 3 point advantage. Which, means, that winning road games against quality opponents is sort of a "next step" for a team. (Some teams, especially at higher altitudes, like NAU, SUU, and MSU have even bigger home field advantages. NAU at 7,000 ft has probably the best homefield advantage in all of sports. It shows up year in and year out...this year, they've been blown out in every road game and won every home game.)

All that said, you sort of have to normalize out the road wins/losses. At home, MSU beat solid teams like SEMO this year and UIW and UWI last year, but has struggled on the road with bad teams like UIW (this year) and Poly.

UCD worries me a lot. They are a lot better than, say, Poly or UWI, and probably right in the same category with UND. I think its a 50-50 game.

The brawl is always a 50-50 game. And Bobby's job is probably at risk if he loses 2 times in a row. But the Cats have been really good at home...

I think 2-1 is pretty likely-like about a 50% chance. And 1-2 or 3-0 are probably each about 25% chance. Theres no way we lose all 3, though, unless 10 starters get suspended or some freak happening like that.
No way bobby loses his job in year two with a winning record, regardless of how the Brawl turns out.
Bob Stitt had 3 years of winning records and got canned. Not totally the same, I get it. If the Griz make a decent playoff run, or get seeds then sure. If they lose the Brawl and go out in the round of 16...He's not getting fired this year, but theres going to be some long, hard, uncomfortable talks.



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Re: On The Road...

Post by Long Time Cat » Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:24 pm

onceacat wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:57 am
WalkOn79 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:37 am
onceacat wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:21 pm
Long Time Cat wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:26 pm
Choate’s record on the road has been talked about at length but I thought a summary of it would be interesting. Is he as bad as some claim?

Stats are against FCS teams.
Not in the stats: Three FBS teams on the road, all loses. One D2 school at home, a win.

Home Away Overall
2016 2-3 1-3 3-6
2017 3-3 2-2 5-5
2018 6-1 2-4 8-5
2019 4-1 2-2 6-3

Total 15-8 7-11 22-19
Pct. .652 .389 .536

It’s easy to see the Cats are much better at home and this has been pointed out numerous times, with no big road wins other than at Wa-griz. What does this say about playing on the road? It’s tough. My guess is nearly every coach has a better home record. (Except NDSU 😉) What does this say about the future? Not much in my opinion. Why? Choate wasn’t over .500 overall as a coach until this year. Choate’s team generally finish strong. Choate has the best team he’s had since he started so he should have the best road record he’s had since he started. Plus I think they learned a lot from the UND loss.
In my opinion the odds say we win one of the next two. If we are an improved team, we win them both. UNC should be a slam dunk (#winbig), UCD winnable since they are not that good. I like our chances.
Through my blue and gold colored glasses I see 3 straight wins to finish the season. What say you?
The computer geeks say that all other things being equal, home field is about a 3 point advantage. Which, means, that winning road games against quality opponents is sort of a "next step" for a team. (Some teams, especially at higher altitudes, like NAU, SUU, and MSU have even bigger home field advantages. NAU at 7,000 ft has probably the best homefield advantage in all of sports. It shows up year in and year out...this year, they've been blown out in every road game and won every home game.)

All that said, you sort of have to normalize out the road wins/losses. At home, MSU beat solid teams like SEMO this year and UIW and UWI last year, but has struggled on the road with bad teams like UIW (this year) and Poly.

UCD worries me a lot. They are a lot better than, say, Poly or UWI, and probably right in the same category with UND. I think its a 50-50 game.

The brawl is always a 50-50 game. And Bobby's job is probably at risk if he loses 2 times in a row. But the Cats have been really good at home...

I think 2-1 is pretty likely-like about a 50% chance. And 1-2 or 3-0 are probably each about 25% chance. Theres no way we lose all 3, though, unless 10 starters get suspended or some freak happening like that.
No way bobby loses his job in year two with a winning record, regardless of how the Brawl turns out.
Bob Stitt had 3 years of winning records and got canned. Not totally the same, I get it. If the Griz make a decent playoff run, or get seeds then sure. If they lose the Brawl and go out in the round of 16...He's not getting fired this year, but theres going to be some long, hard, uncomfortable talks.
On a related note where is Choate if we lose two of our last three and one of them is the brawl?


"Confidence is contagious. So is a lack of confidence." Vince Lombardi

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Re: On The Road...

Post by ilovethecats » Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:38 pm

onceacat wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:57 am
WalkOn79 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:37 am
onceacat wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:21 pm
Long Time Cat wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:26 pm
Choate’s record on the road has been talked about at length but I thought a summary of it would be interesting. Is he as bad as some claim?

Stats are against FCS teams.
Not in the stats: Three FBS teams on the road, all loses. One D2 school at home, a win.

Home Away Overall
2016 2-3 1-3 3-6
2017 3-3 2-2 5-5
2018 6-1 2-4 8-5
2019 4-1 2-2 6-3

Total 15-8 7-11 22-19
Pct. .652 .389 .536

It’s easy to see the Cats are much better at home and this has been pointed out numerous times, with no big road wins other than at Wa-griz. What does this say about playing on the road? It’s tough. My guess is nearly every coach has a better home record. (Except NDSU 😉) What does this say about the future? Not much in my opinion. Why? Choate wasn’t over .500 overall as a coach until this year. Choate’s team generally finish strong. Choate has the best team he’s had since he started so he should have the best road record he’s had since he started. Plus I think they learned a lot from the UND loss.
In my opinion the odds say we win one of the next two. If we are an improved team, we win them both. UNC should be a slam dunk (#winbig), UCD winnable since they are not that good. I like our chances.
Through my blue and gold colored glasses I see 3 straight wins to finish the season. What say you?
The computer geeks say that all other things being equal, home field is about a 3 point advantage. Which, means, that winning road games against quality opponents is sort of a "next step" for a team. (Some teams, especially at higher altitudes, like NAU, SUU, and MSU have even bigger home field advantages. NAU at 7,000 ft has probably the best homefield advantage in all of sports. It shows up year in and year out...this year, they've been blown out in every road game and won every home game.)

All that said, you sort of have to normalize out the road wins/losses. At home, MSU beat solid teams like SEMO this year and UIW and UWI last year, but has struggled on the road with bad teams like UIW (this year) and Poly.

UCD worries me a lot. They are a lot better than, say, Poly or UWI, and probably right in the same category with UND. I think its a 50-50 game.

The brawl is always a 50-50 game. And Bobby's job is probably at risk if he loses 2 times in a row. But the Cats have been really good at home...

I think 2-1 is pretty likely-like about a 50% chance. And 1-2 or 3-0 are probably each about 25% chance. Theres no way we lose all 3, though, unless 10 starters get suspended or some freak happening like that.
No way bobby loses his job in year two with a winning record, regardless of how the Brawl turns out.
Bob Stitt had 3 years of winning records and got canned. Not totally the same, I get it. If the Griz make a decent playoff run, or get seeds then sure. If they lose the Brawl and go out in the round of 16...He's not getting fired this year, but theres going to be some long, hard, uncomfortable talks.
The guy walks on water over there. Big money guys made sure Stitt was out and the messiah was in. Many are convinced that his very presence automatically means national championships.

I guess if he loses to us again and are out early in the playoffs is seat may be somewhat, kind of luke warm. But he has a plan that could take 5-7 years in his words, and I don’t see anyone trying to push him out. The guy is honestly Jesus to most everyone in Missoula and a couple losses to the Cats won’t change that.



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Re: On The Road...

Post by Long Time Cat » Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:15 pm

Winning on the road has both a physical and mental component to it. I think the UNC win was a substantial step in getting the road game stigma off of our back. UNC obviously not a top tier team but you can only beat who you play. But beating a poor team soundly does help.

The timing is excellent. We now play a team with a good offense but just an average defense and not particularly good against the run. So we certainly have an opportunity to win and I think if the Cats do win this it should finally remove the lingering doubts that we can win on the road and puts us in a much better position heading into what will eventually be a road playoff game.

Because of UCD’s offense we will probably need 400 yards of offense to win if that’s 300 rushing and 100 passing or 200 and 200 I don’t think it matters too much.


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Re: On The Road...

Post by catatac » Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:52 pm

Ya, I still don't agree there is some glaring problem of not being able to win on the road. Show me a team, ANY team that doesn't have a worse record away versus home. Then see if you can find an FCS team (That almost always have play up games) in the same boat. I doubt they exist.

That said, I totally agree if we can get out of UCD with a W that is going to be huge for our program and for this season specifically.


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Re: On The Road...

Post by rivercat » Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:32 pm

Long Time Cat wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:26 pm
Choate’s record on the road has been talked about at length but I thought a summary of it would be interesting. Is he as bad as some claim?

Stats are against FCS teams.
Not in the stats: Three FBS teams on the road, all loses. One D2 school at home, a win.

Home Away Overall
2016 2-3 1-3 3-6
2017 3-3 2-2 5-5
2018 6-1 2-4 8-5
2019 4-1 2-2 6-3

Total 15-8 7-11 22-19
Pct. .652 .389 .536

It’s easy to see the Cats are much better at home and this has been pointed out numerous times, with no big road wins other than at Wa-griz. What does this say about playing on the road? It’s tough. My guess is nearly every coach has a better home record. (Except NDSU 😉) What does this say about the future? Not much in my opinion. Why? Choate wasn’t over .500 overall as a coach until this year. Choate’s team generally finish strong. Choate has the best team he’s had since he started so he should have the best road record he’s had since he started. Plus I think they learned a lot from the UND loss.
In my opinion the odds say we win one of the next two. If we are an improved team, we win them both. UNC should be a slam dunk (#winbig), UCD winnable since they are not that good. I like our chances.
Through my blue and gold colored glasses I see 3 straight wins to finish the season. What say you?
Better count again. Without the TT fbs game, Cats are 3-1 on the road this year.


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Re: On The Road...

Post by Long Time Cat » Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:11 pm

rivercat wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:32 pm
Long Time Cat wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:26 pm
Choate’s record on the road has been talked about at length but I thought a summary of it would be interesting. Is he as bad as some claim?

Stats are against FCS teams.
Not in the stats: Three FBS teams on the road, all loses. One D2 school at home, a win.

Home Away Overall
2016 2-3 1-3 3-6
2017 3-3 2-2 5-5
2018 6-1 2-4 8-5
2019 4-1 2-2 6-3

Total 15-8 7-11 22-19
Pct. .652 .389 .536

It’s easy to see the Cats are much better at home and this has been pointed out numerous times, with no big road wins other than at Wa-griz. What does this say about playing on the road? It’s tough. My guess is nearly every coach has a better home record. (Except NDSU 😉) What does this say about the future? Not much in my opinion. Why? Choate wasn’t over .500 overall as a coach until this year. Choate’s team generally finish strong. Choate has the best team he’s had since he started so he should have the best road record he’s had since he started. Plus I think they learned a lot from the UND loss.
In my opinion the odds say we win one of the next two. If we are an improved team, we win them both. UNC should be a slam dunk (#winbig), UCD winnable since they are not that good. I like our chances.
Through my blue and gold colored glasses I see 3 straight wins to finish the season. What say you?
Better count again. Without the TT fbs game, Cats are 3-1 on the road this year.
You are correct sorry I missed that. OP has been corrected and updated.

If you throw out Choate's first year here he is now .500 on the road. Add in that without the blocked punt at UND he might very well be undefeated on the road this year. I think we have overcome the road woes and with UCD only being .500 at home this year I am very optimistic about the Cats chances this weekend.


"Confidence is contagious. So is a lack of confidence." Vince Lombardi

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