Completion Percentage

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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by CelticCat » Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:06 pm

We do play two of the statistically the worst passing defenses in the conference in the coming weeks - UNC (11th), UM (12th).


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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by Cataholic » Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:34 pm

bobcat99 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:49 pm
Cataholic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:50 am
bobcat99 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:41 am
grizzh8r wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:29 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 2:17 pm
bobcat99 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:35 pm
So, some of these stats are misleading without context.

One might think that 70% completion rate is great. If you've completed, say, 7/10 passes for 50 yards, that's terrible.

YPA and YPC add much more value. It helps determine efficiency.

Then you also have to add in their running ability. A guy who has a sub 60% completion rate, with low YPA, better be a dang good runner.

Ideally with a pocket passer, you want a decent completion rate with mid to high YPA, and YPC. Running QB you can lower those a little.

Right now, Rovig is subpar in all areas. He has succeeded against bad teams, and been very bad against good teams. It's a real problem, but it's not going to change this year. Optimism, or pessimism, isn't going to change what Rovig is as a QB.
Then there’s going 17-21-1 in a half, but only gaining 120 yards and getting sacked 4 times for 30 yards. Oh, and having your interception lead to a TD.

I wonder if a team has ever had a quarterback complete 17 of 21 passes, yet be behind 42-0. When it was 28-0, he was 14 for 15.
Those are some crazy stats for SUU... With that kind of QB efficiency, they'll be better next year. Might be the team that makes a big jump in improvement that always seems to happen in the Big Sky...
5.7 YPA isn't efficient at all.
That keeps you on schedule. I will take 2nd down and 4.3 yards to go all day long.
It is a direct sign of being inefficient on offense.

Obviously, it's better than pretty much every teams rushing average. Which is, of course, why passing the ball is infinitely more valuable than running the ball. But if you have a YPA of <6, you had better hope you're hitting those passes often, and hitting good runs, often. It's a sign that you're not getting big plays. You're not getting chunk yards. You're not explosive. It makes it easier to fall behind, and it's easier for defenses to defend! Seriously, that doesn't put very much stress on a defense.

So, is it more valuable than running the ball in most cases? Yup! Sure is. Overall, is it a sign of sustainable success? Nope! Sure isn't.
The guy had an 80% completion rate with 5.7 yards per attempt. If you ask any OC if that is acceptable, 100% would tell you yes.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by bobcat99 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:20 pm

Cataholic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:34 pm
bobcat99 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:49 pm
Cataholic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:50 am
bobcat99 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:41 am
grizzh8r wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:29 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 2:17 pm
bobcat99 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:35 pm
So, some of these stats are misleading without context.

One might think that 70% completion rate is great. If you've completed, say, 7/10 passes for 50 yards, that's terrible.

YPA and YPC add much more value. It helps determine efficiency.

Then you also have to add in their running ability. A guy who has a sub 60% completion rate, with low YPA, better be a dang good runner.

Ideally with a pocket passer, you want a decent completion rate with mid to high YPA, and YPC. Running QB you can lower those a little.

Right now, Rovig is subpar in all areas. He has succeeded against bad teams, and been very bad against good teams. It's a real problem, but it's not going to change this year. Optimism, or pessimism, isn't going to change what Rovig is as a QB.
Then there’s going 17-21-1 in a half, but only gaining 120 yards and getting sacked 4 times for 30 yards. Oh, and having your interception lead to a TD.

I wonder if a team has ever had a quarterback complete 17 of 21 passes, yet be behind 42-0. When it was 28-0, he was 14 for 15.
Those are some crazy stats for SUU... With that kind of QB efficiency, they'll be better next year. Might be the team that makes a big jump in improvement that always seems to happen in the Big Sky...
5.7 YPA isn't efficient at all.
That keeps you on schedule. I will take 2nd down and 4.3 yards to go all day long.
It is a direct sign of being inefficient on offense.

Obviously, it's better than pretty much every teams rushing average. Which is, of course, why passing the ball is infinitely more valuable than running the ball. But if you have a YPA of <6, you had better hope you're hitting those passes often, and hitting good runs, often. It's a sign that you're not getting big plays. You're not getting chunk yards. You're not explosive. It makes it easier to fall behind, and it's easier for defenses to defend! Seriously, that doesn't put very much stress on a defense.

So, is it more valuable than running the ball in most cases? Yup! Sure is. Overall, is it a sign of sustainable success? Nope! Sure isn't.
The guy had an 80% completion rate with 5.7 yards per attempt. If you ask any OC if that is acceptable, 100% would tell you yes.
Ok? Acceptable isn't a word that I used anywhere, so I don't know where you're going with that?

And actually, I disagree with that. Some OC's might like it. Others wouldn't. Depends on scheme, and what they're trying to do on offense. What's their goal? Ball control? Big plays? Stress the defense? So that's a dependant. Pretty hard to say 100% would say that's acceptable, I think. And you call me Gruden, haha! ;)

Anyways, we're veering off the point I was trying to make.

Lets take starting QB A. 66% completion rate, 2400 yards on 350 attempts. Not bad! 6.8 YPA, which is okay. Not bad, but not great.

Now look at starting QB B. 59% completion rate, 3150 yards on 357 attempts. Funny enough, almost the same amount of attempts, which works perfect! 8.8 YPA, a really good mark!

So, which one is more valuable? One has a low completion rate, but what he is completing, is getting a lot more yards. This is why I say completion percentage is overrated. I'd rather complete less, and get more yards, than complete more and get less yards. Yards > completion %.



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RobertoGato
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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by RobertoGato » Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:31 pm

5.7 YPA is horrible...



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by bobcat99 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:37 pm

RobertoGato wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:31 pm
5.7 YPA is horrible...
But high completion rate!!

Sometimes I feel like having a lot of fun and introducing air yards per attempt/completion to this place. I bet Rovig's is real low. Throwing a 2 yard pass where the receiver gets another few yards just don't impress me much.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by RobertoGato » Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:58 pm

bobcat99 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:37 pm
RobertoGato wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:31 pm
5.7 YPA is horrible...
But high completion rate!!

Sometimes I feel like having a lot of fun and introducing air yards per attempt/completion to this place. I bet Rovig's is real low. Throwing a 2 yard pass where the receiver gets another few yards just don't impress me much.
Shoot, these days if a Bobcat QB just throws a smoke screen where the receiver can catch it and run a little bit, I'm impressed.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by Cataholic » Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:15 pm

bobcat99 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:20 pm
Cataholic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:34 pm
bobcat99 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:49 pm
Cataholic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:50 am
bobcat99 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:41 am
grizzh8r wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:29 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 2:17 pm
bobcat99 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:35 pm
So, some of these stats are misleading without context.

One might think that 70% completion rate is great. If you've completed, say, 7/10 passes for 50 yards, that's terrible.

YPA and YPC add much more value. It helps determine efficiency.

Then you also have to add in their running ability. A guy who has a sub 60% completion rate, with low YPA, better be a dang good runner.

Ideally with a pocket passer, you want a decent completion rate with mid to high YPA, and YPC. Running QB you can lower those a little.

Right now, Rovig is subpar in all areas. He has succeeded against bad teams, and been very bad against good teams. It's a real problem, but it's not going to change this year. Optimism, or pessimism, isn't going to change what Rovig is as a QB.
Then there’s going 17-21-1 in a half, but only gaining 120 yards and getting sacked 4 times for 30 yards. Oh, and having your interception lead to a TD.

I wonder if a team has ever had a quarterback complete 17 of 21 passes, yet be behind 42-0. When it was 28-0, he was 14 for 15.
Those are some crazy stats for SUU... With that kind of QB efficiency, they'll be better next year. Might be the team that makes a big jump in improvement that always seems to happen in the Big Sky...
5.7 YPA isn't efficient at all.
That keeps you on schedule. I will take 2nd down and 4.3 yards to go all day long.
It is a direct sign of being inefficient on offense.

Obviously, it's better than pretty much every teams rushing average. Which is, of course, why passing the ball is infinitely more valuable than running the ball. But if you have a YPA of <6, you had better hope you're hitting those passes often, and hitting good runs, often. It's a sign that you're not getting big plays. You're not getting chunk yards. You're not explosive. It makes it easier to fall behind, and it's easier for defenses to defend! Seriously, that doesn't put very much stress on a defense.

So, is it more valuable than running the ball in most cases? Yup! Sure is. Overall, is it a sign of sustainable success? Nope! Sure isn't.
The guy had an 80% completion rate with 5.7 yards per attempt. If you ask any OC if that is acceptable, 100% would tell you yes.
Ok? Acceptable isn't a word that I used anywhere, so I don't know where you're going with that?

And actually, I disagree with that. Some OC's might like it. Others wouldn't. Depends on scheme, and what they're trying to do on offense. What's their goal? Ball control? Big plays? Stress the defense? So that's a dependant. Pretty hard to say 100% would say that's acceptable, I think. And you call me Gruden, haha! ;)

Anyways, we're veering off the point I was trying to make.

Lets take starting QB A. 66% completion rate, 2400 yards on 350 attempts. Not bad! 6.8 YPA, which is okay. Not bad, but not great.

Now look at starting QB B. 59% completion rate, 3150 yards on 357 attempts. Funny enough, almost the same amount of attempts, which works perfect! 8.8 YPA, a really good mark!

So, which one is more valuable? One has a low completion rate, but what he is completing, is getting a lot more yards. This is why I say completion percentage is overrated. I'd rather complete less, and get more yards, than complete more and get less yards. Yards > completion %.
I call you Gruden, because you think you are Gruden. You are the expert of all experts and nobody else could possibly be wrong. Just ask you. You will tell us so!

So if a guy passes 28 for 35 (80%) and accumulates 200 yards (5.7 yards per attempt), I am pretty sure that is an acceptable game for virtually every OC. Yes lots of variables, but highly doubt any of us would complain with those numbers.



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RobertoGato
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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by RobertoGato » Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:40 pm

I'm not trying to take sides or score points here, but 5.7 YPA at 80% completion is only 7.1 YPC. Which is pretty paltry.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by bobcatbob » Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:47 pm

I think we have reached a point with Rovig, where Choate and Miller are going to go back to Anderson more heavily. I bet we see a lot of TA on Saturday at QB. Just my guess.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by RobertoGato » Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:53 pm

bobcatbob wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:47 pm
I think we have reached a point with Rovig, where Choate and Miller are going to go back to Anderson more heavily. I bet we see a lot of TA on Saturday at QB. Just my guess.
I doubt we see much of Andersen on offense against UNC unless the game is getting away from them. But @UCD and Vs UM, I certainly agree with you.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by BleedingBLue » Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:57 pm

RobertoGato wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:53 pm
bobcatbob wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:47 pm
I think we have reached a point with Rovig, where Choate and Miller are going to go back to Anderson more heavily. I bet we see a lot of TA on Saturday at QB. Just my guess.
I doubt we see much of Andersen on offense against UNC unless the game is getting away from them. But @UCD and Vs UM, I certainly agree with you.
Disagree, especially because the Griz strength is run D. And with how he has looked at LB I doubt Choate risks further injury too often on offense.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by Cataholic » Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:04 pm

RobertoGato wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:40 pm
I'm not trying to take sides or score points here, but 5.7 YPA at 80% completion is only 7.1 YPC. Which is pretty paltry.
I didn’t say it would lead the league in passing. I was just stating that it would be acceptable. In our offense, it would probably win a lot of games.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by Joe Bobcat » Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:10 pm

bobcatbob wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:47 pm
I think we have reached a point with Rovig, where Choate and Miller are going to go back to Anderson more heavily. I bet we see a lot of TA on Saturday at QB. Just my guess.
You're kidding aren't you, I mean please tell me you're kidding. If your post was meant as a joke or sarcasm it's too old to be funny and it's run it's course. At least you said it was just a guess, but come on that's just crazy talk at this time.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by bobcatbob » Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:41 pm

Joe Bobcat wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:10 pm
bobcatbob wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:47 pm
I think we have reached a point with Rovig, where Choate and Miller are going to go back to Anderson more heavily. I bet we see a lot of TA on Saturday at QB. Just my guess.
You're kidding aren't you, I mean please tell me you're kidding. If your post was meant as a joke or sarcasm it's too old to be funny and it's run it's course. At least you said it was just a guess, but come on that's just crazy talk at this time.
This is Choate’s fourth year. The expectations are high. After the ND loss and with Rovig still not there, I think Choate is going with his best chance to win in TA. I don’t think he wants to take any chances at this point. We have historically have had a tough time playing at UNC. I am not saying TA Will play the whole game there, but he will be used heavily at QB. Not a joke at all.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by ilovethecats » Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:44 pm

Joe Bobcat wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:10 pm
bobcatbob wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:47 pm
I think we have reached a point with Rovig, where Choate and Miller are going to go back to Anderson more heavily. I bet we see a lot of TA on Saturday at QB. Just my guess.
You're kidding aren't you, I mean please tell me you're kidding. If your post was meant as a joke or sarcasm it's too old to be funny and it's run it's course. At least you said it was just a guess, but come on that's just crazy talk at this time.
:lol:

At this point I’ve just learned to embrace it. People will just never believe it’s possible that the coaches don’t see TA as a QB.

I’m convinced that Troy could have 25 tackles, 5 of them for a loss, 3 sacks, an interception; Rovig with 250 yards, 3 td’s and no turnovers, we win by 30, and we’d still have 10 posts about how we need TA at qb!

If you don’t embrace it you’ll go crazy.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by bobcat99 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:51 pm

Cataholic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:15 pm
bobcat99 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:20 pm
Cataholic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:34 pm
bobcat99 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:49 pm
Cataholic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:50 am
bobcat99 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:41 am
grizzh8r wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:29 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 2:17 pm
bobcat99 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:35 pm
So, some of these stats are misleading without context.

One might think that 70% completion rate is great. If you've completed, say, 7/10 passes for 50 yards, that's terrible.

YPA and YPC add much more value. It helps determine efficiency.

Then you also have to add in their running ability. A guy who has a sub 60% completion rate, with low YPA, better be a dang good runner.

Ideally with a pocket passer, you want a decent completion rate with mid to high YPA, and YPC. Running QB you can lower those a little.

Right now, Rovig is subpar in all areas. He has succeeded against bad teams, and been very bad against good teams. It's a real problem, but it's not going to change this year. Optimism, or pessimism, isn't going to change what Rovig is as a QB.
Then there’s going 17-21-1 in a half, but only gaining 120 yards and getting sacked 4 times for 30 yards. Oh, and having your interception lead to a TD.

I wonder if a team has ever had a quarterback complete 17 of 21 passes, yet be behind 42-0. When it was 28-0, he was 14 for 15.
Those are some crazy stats for SUU... With that kind of QB efficiency, they'll be better next year. Might be the team that makes a big jump in improvement that always seems to happen in the Big Sky...
5.7 YPA isn't efficient at all.
That keeps you on schedule. I will take 2nd down and 4.3 yards to go all day long.
It is a direct sign of being inefficient on offense.

Obviously, it's better than pretty much every teams rushing average. Which is, of course, why passing the ball is infinitely more valuable than running the ball. But if you have a YPA of <6, you had better hope you're hitting those passes often, and hitting good runs, often. It's a sign that you're not getting big plays. You're not getting chunk yards. You're not explosive. It makes it easier to fall behind, and it's easier for defenses to defend! Seriously, that doesn't put very much stress on a defense.

So, is it more valuable than running the ball in most cases? Yup! Sure is. Overall, is it a sign of sustainable success? Nope! Sure isn't.
The guy had an 80% completion rate with 5.7 yards per attempt. If you ask any OC if that is acceptable, 100% would tell you yes.
Ok? Acceptable isn't a word that I used anywhere, so I don't know where you're going with that?

And actually, I disagree with that. Some OC's might like it. Others wouldn't. Depends on scheme, and what they're trying to do on offense. What's their goal? Ball control? Big plays? Stress the defense? So that's a dependant. Pretty hard to say 100% would say that's acceptable, I think. And you call me Gruden, haha! ;)

Anyways, we're veering off the point I was trying to make.

Lets take starting QB A. 66% completion rate, 2400 yards on 350 attempts. Not bad! 6.8 YPA, which is okay. Not bad, but not great.

Now look at starting QB B. 59% completion rate, 3150 yards on 357 attempts. Funny enough, almost the same amount of attempts, which works perfect! 8.8 YPA, a really good mark!

So, which one is more valuable? One has a low completion rate, but what he is completing, is getting a lot more yards. This is why I say completion percentage is overrated. I'd rather complete less, and get more yards, than complete more and get less yards. Yards > completion %.
I call you Gruden, because you think you are Gruden. You are the expert of all experts and nobody else could possibly be wrong. Just ask you. You will tell us so!

So if a guy passes 28 for 35 (80%) and accumulates 200 yards (5.7 yards per attempt), I am pretty sure that is an acceptable game for virtually every OC. Yes lots of variables, but highly doubt any of us would complain with those numbers.
You seem to carry a personal agenda into every conversation you have with me. Get over it man.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by bobcatbob » Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:57 pm

I am not saying I believe TA should be at QB. I want him at LB. I would say Choate feels that way too. But, I think Choate is feeling the weight of expectations and doesn’t want to take any chances and thus TA heavily at qb this Saturday.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by TomCat88 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:11 pm

bobcatbob wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:57 pm
I am not saying I believe TA should be at QB. I want him at LB. I would say Choate feels that way too. But, I think Choate is feeling the weight of expectations and doesn’t want to take any chances and thus TA heavily at qb this Saturday.
LOL! A year after Troy's gone, you're still gonna be coming up with something that has him playing QB, aren't ya? "Belicheck needs to move Troy over to QB for Brady for this game. It's a must-win." :wink:


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RobertoGato
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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by RobertoGato » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:23 pm

BleedingBLue wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:57 pm
RobertoGato wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:53 pm
bobcatbob wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:47 pm
I think we have reached a point with Rovig, where Choate and Miller are going to go back to Anderson more heavily. I bet we see a lot of TA on Saturday at QB. Just my guess.
I doubt we see much of Andersen on offense against UNC unless the game is getting away from them. But @UCD and Vs UM, I certainly agree with you.
Disagree, especially because the Griz strength is run D. And with how he has looked at LB I doubt Choate risks further injury too often on offense.
There's run D and then there's Troy Andersen D.

But we will see when the games shows up.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by RobertoGato » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:26 pm

ilovethecats wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:44 pm
Joe Bobcat wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:10 pm
bobcatbob wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:47 pm
I think we have reached a point with Rovig, where Choate and Miller are going to go back to Anderson more heavily. I bet we see a lot of TA on Saturday at QB. Just my guess.
You're kidding aren't you, I mean please tell me you're kidding. If your post was meant as a joke or sarcasm it's too old to be funny and it's run it's course. At least you said it was just a guess, but come on that's just crazy talk at this time.
:lol:

At this point I’ve just learned to embrace it. People will just never believe it’s possible that the coaches don’t see TA as a QB.

I’m convinced that Troy could have 25 tackles, 5 of them for a loss, 3 sacks, an interception; Rovig with 250 yards, 3 td’s and no turnovers, we win by 30, and we’d still have 10 posts about how we need TA at qb!

If you don’t embrace it you’ll go crazy.
Ok, so what about a game like @ UND, where they actually went to Troy to win the game for them? Which, by the way, he did until the ST disaster.

It isn't like the coaches don't still use him at QB. And the tougher the opponent, the more he's involved.



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