Completion Percentage

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94VegasCat
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Completion Percentage

Post by 94VegasCat » Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:51 am

What would be a number that would make fans happy with their QB?

75 of 131 for .573%?

174 of 259 for .672%?

190 of 288 for .660%?

I could care less if we threw for 118 yards or 458 yards per game. I think the stat that is more critical would be the completion percentage.

There have been a bunch of folks on here that complain about our QBs, myself included. After watching the suu game I started thinking back to games that have really pissed me off. I watched a few. (FFWD is a good thing).

There were several incomplete passes that our WRs would have needed to be flying contortionists to possibly pull in the ball. But then again there’s several that bounce off WRs hands or bodies.

88 of 131 is .672%. Is it a reasonable thought that we’ve not caught 13 passes this season that have hit guys in the hands? 8 games? I’ll bet it’s close.

I want to be able to trust that on a 3n7, we can confidently come up with a pass call that will work 65-75% of the time.

I couldn’t find FCS stats for 2005 or 2012 to make a comparison to our hero’s.


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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by RobertoGato » Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:54 am

If a QB isn't going to adding a legit rushing threat to the offense, then the completion % should be above 60, generally. Drops happen and other things that impact that stat, but over time 60% should be easily attainable-- especially with how many gimme's Miller plans into the offense.

Against NAU, SAC, and UND, Rovig's completion percentage was 51% and he threw for 5.7 yards per attempt. He also had two touchdowns and two interceptions.

Against SUU, NORF, and CP, Rovig's completion percentage was 62% and he threw for 7.9 yards per attempt. He also had 7 touchdowns and just one interception.

The latter is great! That will certainly get it done. The former makes it really hard to win games.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by 94VegasCat » Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:31 am

Those ‘gimmies’ that hit guys in the hands sustain drives. That’s what I’m trying to point out. Maybe not all of our screaming should be directed at the QBs. I’m certainly not trying to pick on any guy in particular either. Most of them have made acrobatic plays but a few have dropped a bunch of gimmies. Greatness is in the details. There were a few drive ending drops in the 2nd half if the Suu game. Yeah sure it was over at halftime but show that you can sustain it. Prove it can be done. Keep calling plays from the “to win” play book and not the “to not lose” playbook. I fully understand that we went ultra conservative in the 2nd half, there’s no need to absolutely embarrass anyone (minus um, bury the duckers).

Again, greatness is in the details. Dial them in. Play to win and spellcheck it’s never duckers.


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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by RobertoGato » Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:45 am

94VegasCat wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:31 am
Those ‘gimmies’ that hit guys in the hands sustain drives. That’s what I’m trying to point out. Maybe not all of our screaming should be directed at the QBs. I’m certainly not trying to pick on any guy in particular either. Most of them have made acrobatic plays but a few have dropped a bunch of gimmies. Greatness is in the details. There were a few drive ending drops in the 2nd half if the Suu game. Yeah sure it was over at halftime but show that you can sustain it. Prove it can be done. Keep calling plays from the “to win” play book and not the “to not lose” playbook. I fully understand that we went ultra conservative in the 2nd half, there’s no need to absolutely embarrass anyone (minus um, bury the duckers).

Again, greatness is in the details. Dial them in. Play to win and spellcheck it’s never duckers.
I don't see an issue with saying that both drops and inaccuracy have been problems.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by KittieKop » Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:01 am

*have at times each been a problem. Receivers have made some outstanding catches, but have dropped some gimmes. QBs have made some terrific throws (the long TD yesterday) and have missed gimmes (a lot of swing passes).


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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by RobertoGato » Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:05 am

Interestingly, Rovig's completion percentage this year (57%) is only 2 points better than Andersen's last year.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by catsrback76 » Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:33 am

RobertoGato wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:05 am
Interestingly, Rovig's completion percentage this year (57%) is only 2 points better than Andersen's last year.
Without Andersen!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Why go back?

If you want to compare apples and oranges...then go ahead, but IF you're really trying to say TA and TR are in fact the same beast undercenter...then you're just being argumentative for the sake of it!

TA ran the ball... safely 95% of the time, TR hands off 60%, passes 20% and is out 20%! Come on man, don't be naive.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by RobertoGato » Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:43 am

catsrback76 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:33 am
RobertoGato wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:05 am
Interestingly, Rovig's completion percentage this year (57%) is only 2 points better than Andersen's last year.
Without Andersen!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Why go back?

If you want to compare apples and oranges...then go ahead, but IF you're really trying to say TA and TR are in fact the same beast undercenter...then you're just being argumentative for the sake of it!

TA ran the ball... safely 95% of the time, TR hands off 60%, passes 20% and is out 20%! Come on man, don't be naive.
Not comparing them as though they're the same style of QB. I'm just saying it's interesting. Everyone on this board would have hoped that Rovig would be able to top Andersen's 55% completion by a lot more than that. That was the whole pitch... move Andersen to defense and dramatically improve the passing game.

Andersen had more passing attempts last year than he did rushing attempts (208 to 206) so I don't know what you mean about running the ball 95% of the time.

To answer your first question, the reason you go back is if Rovig continues to prove to be inadequate against quality competition.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by catatac » Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:46 am

catsrback76 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:33 am
RobertoGato wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:05 am
Interestingly, Rovig's completion percentage this year (57%) is only 2 points better than Andersen's last year.
Without Andersen!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Why go back?

If you want to compare apples and oranges...then go ahead, but IF you're really trying to say TA and TR are in fact the same beast undercenter...then you're just being argumentative for the sake of it!

TA ran the ball... safely 95% of the time, TR hands off 60%, passes 20% and is out 20%! Come on man, don't be naive.
Ya, not sure why this dead horse keeps getting beaten time after time after time after time after time after.....

Rovig is currently our best option at QB and it's not even that close any more, but Bauman is 2nd. Rovig running the O, TA playing LB gives us our best chance to win games from here on out, period. The coaches see it, most fans see it.

Rovig made some really, really good throws yesterday. Just needs to improve consistency on those shorter slants and swing passes, and receivers need to continue to get better at going up and coming down with those balls.


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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by RobertoGato » Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:12 pm

catatac wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:46 am
catsrback76 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:33 am
RobertoGato wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:05 am
Interestingly, Rovig's completion percentage this year (57%) is only 2 points better than Andersen's last year.
Without Andersen!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Why go back?

If you want to compare apples and oranges...then go ahead, but IF you're really trying to say TA and TR are in fact the same beast undercenter...then you're just being argumentative for the sake of it!

TA ran the ball... safely 95% of the time, TR hands off 60%, passes 20% and is out 20%! Come on man, don't be naive.
Ya, not sure why this dead horse keeps getting beaten time after time after time after time after time after.....

Rovig is currently our best option at QB and it's not even that close any more, but Bauman is 2nd. Rovig running the O, TA playing LB gives us our best chance to win games from here on out, period. The coaches see it, most fans see it.

Rovig made some really, really good throws yesterday. Just needs to improve consistency on those shorter slants and swing passes, and receivers need to continue to get better at going up and coming down with those balls.
I can maybe clear that up for you.

This continues to be discussed because it's the issue most relevant to the Cats' success, because each week provides more data and hence more of a basis to judge predictions and assumptions, and because not everyone agrees on the same conclusion.

For instance, I think this season has more than demonstrated that a healthy Andersen is far and away the best option at QB on the roster.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by ilovethecats » Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:54 pm

RobertoGato wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:12 pm
For instance, I think this season has more than demonstrated that a healthy Andersen is far and away the best option at QB on the roster.
I understand this opinion. However, I’d be curious as to why it’s so obvious to some fans but apparently not even remotely obviously to anyone on our coaching staff? Are we to believe that they all just know so little about the game of football?!

I’m honestly curious. I’m trying to think of another situation in sports where something was so blatantly obvious to some fans, but no one coaching seemed to have any idea?

It’s not like this is even a position battle to the coaches. Troy isn’t our backup qb. He might not even be our 3rd string qb! I have to assume that if our entire staff is really this negligent in regards to such an obvious decision, it would be grounds for dismissal. Hope this isn’t the case as I really think some guys on our staff know a thing or two.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by RobertoGato » Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:58 pm

ilovethecats wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:54 pm
RobertoGato wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:12 pm
For instance, I think this season has more than demonstrated that a healthy Andersen is far and away the best option at QB on the roster.
I understand this opinion. However, I’d be curious as to why it’s so obvious to some fans but apparently not even remotely obviously to anyone on our coaching staff? Are we to believe that they all just know so little about the game of football?!

I’m honestly curious. I’m trying to think of another situation in sports where something was so blatantly obvious to some fans, but no one coaching seemed to have any idea?

It’s not like this is even a position battle to the coaches. Troy isn’t our backup qb. He might not even be our 3rd string qb! I have to assume that if our entire staff is really this negligent in regards to such an obvious decision, it would be grounds for dismissal. Hope this isn’t the case as I really think some guys on our staff know a thing or two.
Very valid.

Two things come to mind.

It's been reported that Troy told Choate he wants to play linebacker. Presumably that's because he has an NFL future at that position. So I think they're trying to honor that choice by not using him exclusively at QB.

And secondly, he has been been healthy for most of the season, so I would guess we have seen a lot less of him on offense than we would have otherwise.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by ilovethecats » Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:08 pm

RobertoGato wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:58 pm
ilovethecats wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:54 pm
RobertoGato wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:12 pm
For instance, I think this season has more than demonstrated that a healthy Andersen is far and away the best option at QB on the roster.
I understand this opinion. However, I’d be curious as to why it’s so obvious to some fans but apparently not even remotely obviously to anyone on our coaching staff? Are we to believe that they all just know so little about the game of football?!

I’m honestly curious. I’m trying to think of another situation in sports where something was so blatantly obvious to some fans, but no one coaching seemed to have any idea?

It’s not like this is even a position battle to the coaches. Troy isn’t our backup qb. He might not even be our 3rd string qb! I have to assume that if our entire staff is really this negligent in regards to such an obvious decision, it would be grounds for dismissal. Hope this isn’t the case as I really think some guys on our staff know a thing or two.
Very valid.

Two things come to mind.

It's been reported that Troy told Choate he wants to play linebacker. Presumably that's because he has an NFL future at that position. So I think they're trying to honor that choice by not using him exclusively at QB.

And secondly, he has been been healthy for most of the season, so I would guess we have seen a lot less of him on offense than we would have otherwise.
I love Troy. And I’m one that likes him on defense. But I don’t care how good a kid is, if coaches start letting players tell them where they’re going to play, and especially if those positions aren’t the ones that they’re obviously best in, I wouldn’t think those coaches should be coaching



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by RobertoGato » Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:15 pm

ilovethecats wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:08 pm
RobertoGato wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:58 pm
ilovethecats wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:54 pm
RobertoGato wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:12 pm
For instance, I think this season has more than demonstrated that a healthy Andersen is far and away the best option at QB on the roster.
I understand this opinion. However, I’d be curious as to why it’s so obvious to some fans but apparently not even remotely obviously to anyone on our coaching staff? Are we to believe that they all just know so little about the game of football?!

I’m honestly curious. I’m trying to think of another situation in sports where something was so blatantly obvious to some fans, but no one coaching seemed to have any idea?

It’s not like this is even a position battle to the coaches. Troy isn’t our backup qb. He might not even be our 3rd string qb! I have to assume that if our entire staff is really this negligent in regards to such an obvious decision, it would be grounds for dismissal. Hope this isn’t the case as I really think some guys on our staff know a thing or two.
Very valid.

Two things come to mind.

It's been reported that Troy told Choate he wants to play linebacker. Presumably that's because he has an NFL future at that position. So I think they're trying to honor that choice by not using him exclusively at QB.

And secondly, he has been been healthy for most of the season, so I would guess we have seen a lot less of him on offense than we would have otherwise.
I love Troy. And I’m one that likes him on defense. But I don’t care how good a kid is, if coaches start letting players tell them where they’re going to play, and especially if those positions aren’t the ones that they’re obviously best in, I wouldn’t think those coaches should be coaching
I wasn't there. So I don't really know how it went down. My sense is that it was more a situation where the coaches decided to give Troy a choice, more than a player making a demand. He doesn't strike me as that type.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by bobcat99 » Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:35 pm

So, some of these stats are misleading without context.

One might think that 70% completion rate is great. If you've completed, say, 7/10 passes for 50 yards, that's terrible.

YPA and YPC add much more value. It helps determine efficiency.

Then you also have to add in their running ability. A guy who has a sub 60% completion rate, with low YPA, better be a dang good runner.

Ideally with a pocket passer, you want a decent completion rate with mid to high YPA, and YPC. Running QB you can lower those a little.

Right now, Rovig is subpar in all areas. He has succeeded against bad teams, and been very bad against good teams. It's a real problem, but it's not going to change this year. Optimism, or pessimism, isn't going to change what Rovig is as a QB.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by VimSince03 » Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:41 pm

bobcat99 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:35 pm
So, some of these stats are misleading without context.

One might think that 70% completion rate is great. If you've completed, say, 7/10 passes for 50 yards, that's terrible.

YPA and YPC add much more value. It helps determine efficiency.

Then you also have to add in their running ability. A guy who has a sub 60% completion rate, with low YPA, better be a dang good runner.

Ideally with a pocket passer, you want a decent completion rate with mid to high YPA, and YPC. Running QB you can lower those a little.

Right now, Rovig is subpar in all areas. He has succeeded against bad teams, and been very bad against good teams. It's a real problem, but it's not going to change this year. Optimism, or pessimism, isn't going to change what Rovig is as a QB.
The silver lining in all of this is the coaching staff will know exactly what they have in Tucker by the end of this season. The "let him get a few games under his belt" moniker will be outdated by that point. TR will has three guaranteed chances remaining.


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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by RobertoGato » Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:48 pm

VimSince03 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:41 pm
bobcat99 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:35 pm
So, some of these stats are misleading without context.

One might think that 70% completion rate is great. If you've completed, say, 7/10 passes for 50 yards, that's terrible.

YPA and YPC add much more value. It helps determine efficiency.

Then you also have to add in their running ability. A guy who has a sub 60% completion rate, with low YPA, better be a dang good runner.

Ideally with a pocket passer, you want a decent completion rate with mid to high YPA, and YPC. Running QB you can lower those a little.

Right now, Rovig is subpar in all areas. He has succeeded against bad teams, and been very bad against good teams. It's a real problem, but it's not going to change this year. Optimism, or pessimism, isn't going to change what Rovig is as a QB.
The silver lining in all of this is the coaching staff will know exactly what they have in Tucker by the end of this season. The "let him get a few games under his belt" moniker will be outdated by that point. TR will has three guaranteed chances remaining.
Yep. Ideally, he keeps the good times rolling against UNC and UCD and then proves he can play well against a good team in the Brawl. One week at a time.

My guess is that Troy is a "in case of emergency, break glass" player the next two weeks, and a major part of the offensive game plan against the Griz. But that's just speculation.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by RobertoGato » Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:52 pm

bobcat99 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:35 pm
So, some of these stats are misleading without context.

One might think that 70% completion rate is great. If you've completed, say, 7/10 passes for 50 yards, that's terrible.

YPA and YPC add much more value. It helps determine efficiency.

Then you also have to add in their running ability. A guy who has a sub 60% completion rate, with low YPA, better be a dang good runner.

Ideally with a pocket passer, you want a decent completion rate with mid to high YPA, and YPC. Running QB you can lower those a little.

Right now, Rovig is subpar in all areas. He has succeeded against bad teams, and been very bad against good teams. It's a real problem, but it's not going to change this year. Optimism, or pessimism, isn't going to change what Rovig is as a QB.
Rovig's YPA is 6.7 and YPC is 11.7.

For comparison, Andersen's YPA last year was 5.7 and his YPC was 10.4.



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by bobcat99 » Sun Nov 03, 2019 2:04 pm

ilovethecats wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:08 pm
RobertoGato wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:58 pm
ilovethecats wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:54 pm
RobertoGato wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:12 pm
For instance, I think this season has more than demonstrated that a healthy Andersen is far and away the best option at QB on the roster.
I understand this opinion. However, I’d be curious as to why it’s so obvious to some fans but apparently not even remotely obviously to anyone on our coaching staff? Are we to believe that they all just know so little about the game of football?!

I’m honestly curious. I’m trying to think of another situation in sports where something was so blatantly obvious to some fans, but no one coaching seemed to have any idea?

It’s not like this is even a position battle to the coaches. Troy isn’t our backup qb. He might not even be our 3rd string qb! I have to assume that if our entire staff is really this negligent in regards to such an obvious decision, it would be grounds for dismissal. Hope this isn’t the case as I really think some guys on our staff know a thing or two.
Very valid.

Two things come to mind.

It's been reported that Troy told Choate he wants to play linebacker. Presumably that's because he has an NFL future at that position. So I think they're trying to honor that choice by not using him exclusively at QB.

And secondly, he has been been healthy for most of the season, so I would guess we have seen a lot less of him on offense than we would have otherwise.
I love Troy. And I’m one that likes him on defense. But I don’t care how good a kid is, if coaches start letting players tell them where they’re going to play, and especially if those positions aren’t the ones that they’re obviously best in, I wouldn’t think those coaches should be coaching
If you have a kid playing a position they don't want, and they've vocalized that to the coaches, it can create issues.

Now if you have a kid who is a legitimate NFL talent, and you play him out of position so his chances at the next level are diminished, you are going to have big issues. Issues in the locker room and on the recruiting trail. You're potentially lowering his value by millions of dollars. That matters.

Finally, Troy Andersen is a phenomenal athlete, great football player. As a QB, the bar to being better than him isn't very high. That's just the truth. Sure, we might have won a couple more games this year (maybe, if he was fully healthy), but the downside in recruiting might outweigh that. At least now QB's know we want to pass the ball. We just such at it. So there's opportunity!



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Re: Completion Percentage

Post by TomCat88 » Sun Nov 03, 2019 2:17 pm

bobcat99 wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:35 pm
So, some of these stats are misleading without context.

One might think that 70% completion rate is great. If you've completed, say, 7/10 passes for 50 yards, that's terrible.

YPA and YPC add much more value. It helps determine efficiency.

Then you also have to add in their running ability. A guy who has a sub 60% completion rate, with low YPA, better be a dang good runner.

Ideally with a pocket passer, you want a decent completion rate with mid to high YPA, and YPC. Running QB you can lower those a little.

Right now, Rovig is subpar in all areas. He has succeeded against bad teams, and been very bad against good teams. It's a real problem, but it's not going to change this year. Optimism, or pessimism, isn't going to change what Rovig is as a QB.
Then there’s going 17-21-1 in a half, but only gaining 120 yards and getting sacked 4 times for 30 yards. Oh, and having your interception lead to a TD.

I wonder if a team has ever had a quarterback complete 17 of 21 passes, yet be behind 42-0. When it was 28-0, he was 14 for 15.


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