Playoff Implications

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Catprint
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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by Catprint » Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:59 pm

coochorama42 wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:53 pm


First, the seeds:
1. North Dakota State (expected automatic bid – Missouri Valley Football Conference)
2. James Madison (expected automatic bid – Colonial Athletic Association)
3. Weber State (expected automatic bid – Big Sky Conference)
4. Sacramento State (at-large bid – Big Sky Conference)
5. South Dakota State (at-large bid – Missouri Valley Football Conference)
6. Montana (at-large bid – Big Sky Conference)
7. Illinois State (at-large bid – Missouri Valley Football Conference)
8. Central Arkansas (expected automatic bid – Southland Conference)

Other expected automatic bids:
Kennesaw State (Big South)
Central Connecticut State (Northeast Conference)
Southeast Missouri State (Ohio Valley Conference)
Holy Cross (Patriot League)
San Diego (Pioneer League)
Wofford (Southern Conference)

This leaves ten additional at large bids. I’ll put them in my expected order from safest to most at-risk given their current situation:

Villanova (at-large bid – Colonial Athletic Association)
Northern Iowa (at-large bid – Missouri Valley Football Conference)
Montana State (at-large bid – Big Sky Conference)
Furman (at-large bid – Southern Conference)
Stony Brook (at-large bid – Colonial Athletic Association)
New Hampshire (at-large bid – Colonial Athletic Association)
North Dakota (at-large bid – Independent/Big Sky Conference)
Elon (at-large bid – Colonial Athletic Association)
Nicholls State (at-large bid – Southland Conference)
Monmouth (at-large bid – Big South)
Great post breaking down the tiers. The bane of predicting strikes us all though.
-Illinois State loses likely out of seed
- Kennesaw State loses - might lose auto bid
- CAA? Might as well pick the next American Idol Winner. Stony Brook, Villanova, and Elon all lost putting their "at large" bids in serious hurt.

I realize your predictions were if the season ended last week. Makes for some hard week putting together a slate this week. I imagine there will be some changes.



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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by coochorama42 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:32 am

First things first – Weber State moves up a spot in my eyes. I think their body of work is far superior to that of James Madison, mostly because the CAA is a train wreck this year. Speaking of the CAA, I have three teams in the field right now: James Madison, New Hampshire, and Villanova. That being said, the winner of Towson @ Stony Brook would likely make the field if they win out. It’s also worth noting that Villanova has a very easy remaining schedule (all three games are at home), but the way they’ve been playing, it wouldn’t be surprising if they lose to Richmond and/or Delaware. The conference that had the best weekend was – by far and away – the Big Sky Conference. Weber State dominated Sacramento State but – more importantly – Montana and Montana State took care of business. Moreover, Northern Iowa handled Illinois State (Weber beat Northern Iowa earlier in the year) and Monmouth destroyed Kennesaw State (the Grizzlies beat Monmouth early in the season). Moreover, SEMO continued to play well and is likely going to make the playoff field as an at-large out of the Ohio Valley Conference, giving the Bobcats a quality win against a team likely making the field. I expect that the “extra” at-large bids coming from a weak CAA (and weak Southland) will get spread around a bit. Kennesaw State might still get a bid out of the Big South, the Southern Conference can likely make a claim for an extra bid, the Ohio Valley Conference has three strong teams at the top, and the Big Sky + North Dakota have a shot of 5 bids total. The MVFC is looking like a 4-5 bid conference (depending on how Illinois State and Southern Illinois finish the year).

First Tier (control their own seeding destiny) – Only an undefeated winner (in the FCS) of the MVFC is a lock to be a top 2 seed in my opinion. If both the Big Sky and CAA have FCS-undefeated teams, it’ll come down to strength of schedule. These teams are in my next tier (the second tier).

North Dakota State (9-0 FCS) – Key wins @ Delaware, vs. UC Davis, vs. Northern Iowa, @ South Dakota State, @ Youngstown State. Important games remaining include: @ Southern Illinois.

Second Tier (guaranteed top 4 seed if they win out) – I’ll put these teams in order based upon my best guess at how the committee will value their strength of schedule/quality of wins/losses/who they beat on the road.

Weber State (7-0 FCS) – Key wins vs. Northern Iowa, vs. Northern Arizona, @ UC Davis, @ Sac State. Important games remaining include: vs. North Dakota, @ Montana.
James Madison (7-0 FCS) – Key wins @ Stony Brook, vs. Villanova, vs. Towson. Important games remaining include: vs. New Hampshire.
South Dakota State (7-1 FCS) – Key wins vs. Southern Illinois, @ Youngstown State. Key losses: vs. North Dakota State. Important games remaining include: vs. Illinois State, vs. Northern Iowa.

Third Tier (possible top 4 seeds if they win out, likely seeded 5-8 if they win out)

Sacramento State (5-1 FCS) – Key win vs. Eastern Washington, @ Montana State, vs. Montana. Key losses vs. Weber State. Important games remaining include: @ Northern Arizona, @ UC Davis.
Montana (7-1 FCS) – Key wins @ UC Davis, vs. Eastern Washington. Key losses: @ Sac State. Important games remaining include: vs. Weber State, @ Montana State.
Central Arkansas (6-1 FCS, BCS victory) – Key win @ Western Kentucky (FBS), vs. Sam Houston State. Key loss @ Nicholls State. Important games include: vs. Southeastern Louisiana.

Fourth Tier (teams that could hypothetically earn a low seed if they win out).

Northern Iowa (6-2 FCS) – Key wins vs. Youngstown State, @ Illinois State. Key losses @ Weber State, @ North Dakota State. Important games remaining include: @ South Dakota State.
Montana State (6-2 FCS) – Key wins vs. Southeast Missouri State, vs. Northern Arizona. Key losses vs. Sac State, @ North Dakota. Important games remaining include: @ UC Davis, vs. Montana.
New Hampshire (5-2 FCS) – Key wins @ Stony Brook, vs. Villanova. Key loss @ Holy Cross, @ Delaware. Important games remaining include: @ James Madison, vs. Maine.
Illinois State (6-2 FCS) – Key win vs. Northern Arizona. Key losses vs. North Dakota State, vs. Northern Iowa. Important games remaining include: @ South Dakota State, @ Youngstown State.
Furman (6-1 FCS) – No key wins. Key losses vs. Citadel. Important games remaining include: @ Wofford.

Fifth Tier (teams that have a non-zero chance to make the playoffs, even if they don’t earn an automatic bid). The probability of each team depends on their current record and (obviously) future performance. Teams such as UC Davis must obviously win out to make the playoffs.

Wofford
Citadel
North Dakota
UC Davis
Villanova
Stony Brook
Towson
Southern Illinois
Southeastern Louisiana
Nicholls State
Sam Houston State
Austin Peay
Southeastern Missouri State
UT Martin
Kennesaw State
Monmouth
Central Connecticut University


I’ll predict the playoff field if the field were filled today. There will be obvious changes as numerous likely playoff teams will face each other between now and the end of the season.

First, the seeds:
1. North Dakota State (expected automatic bid – Missouri Valley Football Conference)
2. Weber State (expected automatic bid – Big Sky Conference)
3. James Madison (expected automatic bid – Colonial Athletic Association)
4. South Dakota State (at-large bid – Missouri Valley Football Conference)
5. Sacramento State (at-large bid – Big Sky Conference)
6. Montana (at-large bid – Big Sky Conference)
7. Central Arkansas (expected automatic bid – Southland Conference)
8. Northern Iowa (at-large bid – Missouri Valley Football Conference)

Other expected automatic bids:
Monmouth (Big South)
Central Connecticut State (Northeast Conference)
Austin Peay (Ohio Valley Conference)
Holy Cross (Patriot League)
San Diego (Pioneer League)
Wofford (Southern Conference)

This leaves ten additional at large bids. I’ll put them in my expected order from safest to most at-risk given their current situation:

Montana State (at-large bid – Big Sky Conference)
Furman (at-large bid – Southern Conference)
New Hampshire (at-large bid – Colonial Athletic Association)
Villanova (at-large bid – Colonial Athletic Association)
Illinois State (at-large bid – Missouri Valley Football Conference)
North Dakota (at-large bid – Independent/Big Sky Conference)
Nicholls State (at-large bid – Southland Conference)
Kennesaw State (at-large bid – Big South)
Southeast Missouri State (at-large bid – Ohio Valley Conference)
Southern Illinois (at-large bid – Missouri Valley Conference)



coochorama42
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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by coochorama42 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:24 am

Just some quick thoughts after the playoff seeding was released by the committee.

Politics are certainly at play here. I have little issue with the top ten teams, but the ranking is highly suspect. How do you put a one-loss "power three" conference team (Montana Grizzlies) behind a two-loss "power three" conference team (Northern Iowa)? If you flip UM and UNI in the rankings, I think they nailed it.

I agree completely with the University of New Hampshire being the #10 ranked team. They have been horribly under-ranked in the polls all year long based upon a poor showing @ Holy Cross, but have been solid in CAA play. They are far from sexy and are unlikely to be a seeded team when the regular season ends (they still have three very tough games remaining), but they deserve this recognition. Also note that the committee already had three teams from the Missouri Valley Football Conference and the Big Sky in the field, so adding a fourth with the same FCS record (Illinois State or Montana State) would have had significant political implications (that the CAA is completely rubbish). At the end of the day, Central Arkansas will be seeded if they win out. The Big Sky Conference can make a good case for three seeds assuming either MSU or UM wins 9 games and Sacramento State takes care of business. Weber has a tough road to an undefeated FCS season, but I think they ultimately get there. JMU is going to be seeded unless they completely melt down, but I don't expect another team out of the CAA will end up with a record that justifies it. The worst case scenario for the Big Sky Conference controlling their destiny in placing three seeded teams is that UNI beats South Dakota State but SDSU takes care of business in their remaining games. Furman has little opportunity to better their resume, so I see this ranking (#9) as their peak unless attrition takes down too many of the power three conference teams.

Realistically, I think we are really down to twelve teams fighting for eight seeded positions. The Big Sky is in the best position to put three teams in seeds as South Dakota State can push both UNI and Illinois State to three FCS losses if they win out.



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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by iaafan » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:04 am

If SAC and Weber both win out, those two, and the Cat-Griz winner are all seeds. Probably other scenarios that get three seeds from BSC.



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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by 91catAlum » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:24 am

coochorama42 wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:24 am
Just some quick thoughts after the playoff seeding was released by the committee.

Politics are certainly at play here. I have little issue with the top ten teams, but the ranking is highly suspect. How do you put a one-loss "power three" conference team (Montana Grizzlies) behind a two-loss "power three" conference team (Northern Iowa)? If you flip UM and UNI in the rankings, I think they nailed it.
Its due to strength of schedules. UNI has something like the #5 toughest schedule in the country this year, and losing to NDSU doesn't really hurt you in their eyes. Also UNI has a high quality win over #11 Ill. State. The griz's best win at this point is Monmouth.
Last edited by 91catAlum on Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:27 am, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by 91catAlum » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:26 am

iaafan wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:04 am
If SAC and Weber both win out, those two, and the Cat-Griz winner are all seeds. Probably other scenarios that get three seeds from BSC.
IF the Cats win their next 2, and the griz beat Idaho this week but lose to weber, I agree that Cat/griz will be for a seed.


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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by iaafan » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:33 am

91catAlum wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:26 am
iaafan wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:04 am
If SAC and Weber both win out, those two, and the Cat-Griz winner are all seeds. Probably other scenarios that get three seeds from BSC.
IF the Cats win their next 2, and the griz beat Idaho this week but lose to weber, I agree that Cat/griz will be for a seed.
I think that’s just a different way of saying what I said.



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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by coochorama42 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:43 am

91catAlum wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:24 am
Its due to strength of schedules. UNI has something like the #5 toughest schedule in the country this year, and losing to NDSU doesn't really hurt you in their eyes. Also UNI has a high quality win over #11 Ill. State. The griz's best win at this point is Monmouth.
I think the committee is heading down a dangerous path if they are not really discounting teams for losses to NDSU. They are still an FCS team. I get the argument about Illinois State, but I still take the one loss team over the two loss team...at least when we're talking about the MVFC, Big Sky, and CAA...



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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by Htowngriz » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:48 am

91catAlum wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:24 am
coochorama42 wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:24 am
Just some quick thoughts after the playoff seeding was released by the committee.

Politics are certainly at play here. I have little issue with the top ten teams, but the ranking is highly suspect. How do you put a one-loss "power three" conference team (Montana Grizzlies) behind a two-loss "power three" conference team (Northern Iowa)? If you flip UM and UNI in the rankings, I think they nailed it.
Its due to strength of schedules. UNI has something like the #5 toughest schedule in the country this year, and losing to NDSU doesn't really hurt you in their eyes. Also UNI has a high quality win over #11 Ill. State. The griz's best win at this point is Monmouth.
I don't necessarily have a problem with UNI being ahead of UM at this point, but just FYI our SOS is ranked 5th in FCS by Massey (UNI is 2nd).



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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by 91catAlum » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:59 am

Htowngriz wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:48 am
91catAlum wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:24 am
coochorama42 wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:24 am
Just some quick thoughts after the playoff seeding was released by the committee.

Politics are certainly at play here. I have little issue with the top ten teams, but the ranking is highly suspect. How do you put a one-loss "power three" conference team (Montana Grizzlies) behind a two-loss "power three" conference team (Northern Iowa)? If you flip UM and UNI in the rankings, I think they nailed it.
Its due to strength of schedules. UNI has something like the #5 toughest schedule in the country this year, and losing to NDSU doesn't really hurt you in their eyes. Also UNI has a high quality win over #11 Ill. State. The griz's best win at this point is Monmouth.
I don't necessarily have a problem with UNI being ahead of UM at this point, but just FYI our SOS is ranked 5th in FCS by Massey (UNI is 2nd).
Thanks for the correction.


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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by 91catAlum » Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:00 pm

iaafan wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:33 am
91catAlum wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:26 am
iaafan wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:04 am
If SAC and Weber both win out, those two, and the Cat-Griz winner are all seeds. Probably other scenarios that get three seeds from BSC.
IF the Cats win their next 2, and the griz beat Idaho this week but lose to weber, I agree that Cat/griz will be for a seed.
I think that’s just a different way of saying what I said.
You left out the part about the Cats needing to win their next 2. Thats all I was saying. If the cats lose at UC Davis, then Cat/griz is not for a seed if the Cats win it. They'd end up 8-4 which will not get a seed.


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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by iaafan » Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:12 pm

91catAlum wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:00 pm
iaafan wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:33 am
91catAlum wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:26 am
iaafan wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:04 am
If SAC and Weber both win out, those two, and the Cat-Griz winner are all seeds. Probably other scenarios that get three seeds from BSC.
IF the Cats win their next 2, and the griz beat Idaho this week but lose to weber, I agree that Cat/griz will be for a seed.
I think that’s just a different way of saying what I said.
You left out the part about the Cats needing to win their next 2. Thats all I was saying. If the cats lose at UC Davis, then Cat/griz is not for a seed if the Cats win it. They'd end up 8-4 which will not get a seed.
True. Just figured that was a given. UM needs to beat Idaho, too, if Weber wins out for Cat-Griz to be for a seed.



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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by grizzh8r » Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:14 pm

How about this scenario, just for kicks.

Sacramento State wins out.
Weber drops their game with UM but win the balance
Cats win out, griz win the balance

Who's gonna get the seeds? No way they'd allow 4 BSC All 3 would only have 2 FCS losses. Would the griz be on the outside looking in from a seed standpoint? I doubt it'll happen, but interesting to speculate...


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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by Cledus » Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:35 pm

grizzh8r wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:14 pm
How about this scenario, just for kicks.

Sacramento State wins out.
Weber drops their game with UM but win the balance
Cats win out, griz win the balance

Who's gonna get the seeds? No way they'd allow 4 BSC All 3 would only have 2 FCS losses. Would the griz be on the outside looking in from a seed standpoint? I doubt it'll happen, but interesting to speculate...
Interesting scenario. Heads up wins trump if we're judging by what has happened in the past. I think it was 2012 when we were ranked way ahead of EWU but they had a heads up win against us. I can't recall if they got a seed, but I'm pretty sure we didn't and were bounced pretty early from the tourney.

I think the committee is on record saying that heads up wins heavily influence their decisions when facing dilemmas such as this.



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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by The MICKSTER » Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:38 pm

grizzh8r wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:14 pm
How about this scenario, just for kicks.

Sacramento State wins out.
Weber drops their game with UM but win the balance
Cats win out, griz win the balance

Who's gonna get the seeds? No way they'd allow 4 BSC All 3 would only have 2 FCS losses. Would the griz be on the outside looking in from a seed standpoint? I doubt it'll happen, but interesting to speculate...
If I'm understanding you right.....both Weber & Sac would have just 1 FCS loss, us and um would each have 2, with a 9-3 record, 6-2 in BSC, and 9-2 vs FCS opponents. Both Weber & Sac would be seeded, and we would likely be seeded.



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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by The MICKSTER » Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:40 pm

Cledus wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:35 pm
grizzh8r wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:14 pm
How about this scenario, just for kicks.

Sacramento State wins out.
Weber drops their game with UM but win the balance
Cats win out, griz win the balance

Who's gonna get the seeds? No way they'd allow 4 BSC All 3 would only have 2 FCS losses. Would the griz be on the outside looking in from a seed standpoint? I doubt it'll happen, but interesting to speculate...
Interesting scenario. Heads up wins trump if we're judging by what has happened in the past. I think it was 2012 when we were ranked way ahead of EWU but they had a heads up win against us. I can't recall if they got a seed, but I'm pretty sure we didn't and were bounced pretty early from the tourney.

I think the committee is on record saying that heads up wins heavily influence their decisions when facing dilemmas such as this.
Especially late in the season.



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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by Prodigal Cat » Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:59 pm

Cledus wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:35 pm
grizzh8r wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:14 pm
How about this scenario, just for kicks.

Sacramento State wins out.
Weber drops their game with UM but win the balance
Cats win out, griz win the balance

Who's gonna get the seeds? No way they'd allow 4 BSC All 3 would only have 2 FCS losses. Would the griz be on the outside looking in from a seed standpoint? I doubt it'll happen, but interesting to speculate...
Interesting scenario. Heads up wins trump if we're judging by what has happened in the past. I think it was 2012 when we were ranked way ahead of EWU but they had a heads up win against us. I can't recall if they got a seed, but I'm pretty sure we didn't and were bounced pretty early from the tourney.

I think the committee is on record saying that heads up wins heavily influence their decisions when facing dilemmas such as this.
Pretty sure this would be the argument of head to head vs SOS.

In this scenario
Weber gets the auto-bid. Their only FCS loss would be @um 9-3 (9-1 FCS)
Sac State would get a seed. Their only FCS loss would be vs Weber 9-3 (9-1 FCS)
um..... They would be 9-3 (8-2 FCS) with loses @ Sac St and @ MSU (quality wins vs Monmouth, vs Weber)
MSU would be 9-3 (8-2 FCS) with loses vs Sac St and @ UND(ouch) (quality wins vs SEMO, vs um)

So give it to MSU or UM??? I think head to head and recency bias you would give to the Cats as that would be the last game played. Man that UND loss stinks though.



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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by The MICKSTER » Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:17 pm

Prodigal Cat wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:59 pm


So give it to MSU or UM??? I think head to head and recency bias you would give to the Cats as that would be the last game played. Man that UND loss stinks though.
+1



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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by technoCat » Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:16 pm

Prodigal Cat wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:59 pm
Cledus wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:35 pm
grizzh8r wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:14 pm
How about this scenario, just for kicks.

Sacramento State wins out.
Weber drops their game with UM but win the balance
Cats win out, griz win the balance

Who's gonna get the seeds? No way they'd allow 4 BSC All 3 would only have 2 FCS losses. Would the griz be on the outside looking in from a seed standpoint? I doubt it'll happen, but interesting to speculate...
Interesting scenario. Heads up wins trump if we're judging by what has happened in the past. I think it was 2012 when we were ranked way ahead of EWU but they had a heads up win against us. I can't recall if they got a seed, but I'm pretty sure we didn't and were bounced pretty early from the tourney.

I think the committee is on record saying that heads up wins heavily influence their decisions when facing dilemmas such as this.
Pretty sure this would be the argument of head to head vs SOS.

In this scenario
Weber gets the auto-bid. Their only FCS loss would be @um 9-3 (9-1 FCS)
Sac State would get a seed. Their only FCS loss would be vs Weber 9-3 (9-1 FCS)
um..... They would be 9-3 (8-2 FCS) with loses @ Sac St and @ MSU (quality wins vs Monmouth, vs Weber)
MSU would be 9-3 (8-2 FCS) with loses vs Sac St and @ UND(ouch) (quality wins vs SEMO, vs um)

So give it to MSU or UM??? I think head to head and recency bias you would give to the Cats as that would be the last game played. Man that UND loss stinks though.
Pretty sure both us and UM would have 9 FCS wins if we end 9-3.


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Re: Playoff Implications

Post by coochorama42 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:18 pm

technoCat wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:16 pm
Pretty sure both us and UM would have 9 FCS wins if we end 9-3.
You are correct.



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