Playoff Implications

[coochorama42]

Call it a gut feeling then. They needed a miracle to beat NAU...even with a backup QB, this stunned me. Then again, the winner of Austin Peay/Furman is a good draw for Sac State.

[coochorama42]

We are here! Here are my final predictions. I will start with my seeds.

#1. North Dakota State (12-0 FCS)
#2. James Madison (10-0 FCS)
#3. Weber State (9-1 FCS)
#4. Sacramento State (8-1 FCS)
#5. Montana State (9-2 FCS)
#6. Central Arkansas (8-2 FCS + FBS win)
#7. Montana (9-2 FCS)
#8. Villanova (9-3 FCS)

Next are the unseeded automatic bids:
Monmouth (Big South)
Central Connecticut State (Northeast Conference)
San Diego (Pioneer League)
Wofford (Southern Conference)
Austin Peay (Ohio Valley Conference)
Holy Cross (Patriot League)
Nicholls State (Southland Conference)

This leaves nine additional at large bids. I’ll put them in my expected order from safest to most at-risk given their current situation:

Northern Iowa
South Dakota State
Albany
Illinois State
Kennesaw State
Southeast Missouri State
North Dakota
Southeastern Louisiana
Southern Illinois


Just outside looking in are:
Furman
Towson
Eastern Washington
New Hampshire

Final edit 1:55am, Sunday Nov 24.

I'm pretty happy with my final prediction. Seeds 6-8 are a little weird, but I think my only miss was Southern Illinois (I had them 24th) instead of Furman (I had them 25th).

[Catprint]

Good job. No one (not Craig Haley, Brian/Sam from Hero sports or anyone else) had SDSU as seeded much less #7. They lost 3 of their last 5 games and their starting QB. I think this clearly shows the MVFC bias. No one else in the country could have lost 3 of their last 5 and got a seed. Villanova and Wofford got the short end of the stick. I will say SDSU Sagarin ( and likely their SRS score) is pretty high. I imagine that influenced the committee but wins and losses have to count for something.

[BLACKnBLUEnGOLD]

Also, the committee is supposedly taking into account the "who wouldn't you want to play" factor, and no team that just lost their QB ought to rank too high on that list.

[coochorama42]

I did some simple analysis on my playoff predictions this year. It was interesting to see some of the trends now that the playoff field has been set. Before I give my opinions, I'll leave these posted here for you to look at.





hosting png