MSU vs UM Schedule comparison

[kennethnoisewater]

Obviously we know going into the season UM had the tougher schedule between the two--flipped from last year. But after a few games, I wanted to re-visit those schedules. I started thinking since EWU is not who we thought they were (thank you Dennis Green, RIP), maybe UM's schedule got easier. I don't necessarily know about that now.

Each team (UM and MSU) is 3-1 with their loss to an FBS team so I'll throw those games out. We can quibble about who got blown out by a better team (UM did) but that's not productive. The combined record of all UM's games outside of Oregon is 18-24. The combined record of all MSU's games outside TT is 16-26. It appears that the non-conference games were maybe slightly easier than we thought for each team overall.

Into the meat of the BSC season, it would seem that UM gets a break by EWU not being themselves. I'd say they're down from expectations. I would also say that, so far, Weber might be down from expectations. Lucky grizzlies! But you could also say Sac State is better than expected, as are Portland State and Idaho. I'd say Davis, ISU, and maybe MSU are the only ones that are right where I thought they would be going into the season.

For MSU, there doesn't seem to be any teams on the schedule that are worse than expected. Sac State, UND and UM are probably better than expected, and Cal Poly could probably be in that category since they had a much easier time with San Diego than UC Davis did. NAU, SUU, UNC, and UC Davis are about what we thought. At this point it looks like the BSC only has one team in UNCU that's just not good, and MSU is lucky enough to have them on the schedule.

This will be interesting to track throughout the season. I still think UM has a tougher schedule than MSU, but I think that gap has closed a little bit from what we've seen so far. Thoughts?

[iaafan]

Don’t count on EWU not being good. Idaho might not be bad. They gave Wyoming a run. They probably caught EWU napping. We’ll see.

[Darth Yoda]

EWU will turn into a buzz saw. Probably peaking around the UM game. I predict that was UI's peak right there.

[RobertCats]

EWU will turn into a buzz saw. Probably peaking around the UM game. I predict that was UI's peak right there.

I guarantee EWU is pissed after this loss, they were pissed after losing to Weber last year while only scoring 6 points. They went on to win 7 straight before finally losing to NDSU in the chipper, averaging 45 points a game in those last 8. They might not be national runner up material but they will definitely still be solid.

[Grizaddict]

EWU will still have legit chance to win this conference. They put up points with ease once they woke up in the second half at Idaho. Barriere on a different level than any QB in the Sky.

[MSU01]

I think these last two weeks will be a major wake-up call for EWU that they actually have to play 60 minutes to win, and I'd guess they'll run the table in conference play or go 7-1 at the absolute worst. No UCD, no Weber, no MSU on the schedule. They'll be in the playoffs and likely back in the seed conversation by the end of the year.

[LTown Cat]

I agree on the EWU talk--they are far from dead. I watched the UI game--they're two starting ILB's were out and Idaho really exploited that in the first half. Once they made adjustments the game tightened. It was just too big of a lead to overcome.

[catatac]

Obviously we know going into the season UM had the tougher schedule between the two--flipped from last year. But after a few games, I wanted to re-visit those schedules. I started thinking since EWU is not who we thought they were (thank you Dennis Green, RIP), maybe UM's schedule got easier. I don't necessarily know about that now.

Each team (UM and MSU) is 3-1 with their loss to an FBS team so I'll throw those games out. We can quibble about who got blown out by a better team (UM did) but that's not productive. The combined record of all UM's games outside of Oregon is 18-24. The combined record of all MSU's games outside TT is 16-26. It appears that the non-conference games were maybe slightly easier than we thought for each team overall.

Into the meat of the BSC season, it would seem that UM gets a break by EWU not being themselves. I'd say they're down from expectations. I would also say that, so far, Weber might be down from expectations. Lucky grizzlies! But you could also say Sac State is better than expected, as are Portland State and Idaho. I'd say Davis, ISU, and maybe MSU are the only ones that are right where I thought they would be going into the season.

For MSU, there doesn't seem to be any teams on the schedule that are worse than expected. Sac State, UND and UM are probably better than expected, and Cal Poly could probably be in that category since they had a much easier time with San Diego than UC Davis did. NAU, SUU, UNC, and UC Davis are about what we thought. At this point it looks like the BSC only has one team in UNCU that's just not good, and MSU is lucky enough to have them on the schedule.

This will be interesting to track throughout the season. I still think UM has a tougher schedule than MSU, but I think that gap has closed a little bit from what we've seen so far. Thoughts?

I'll echo what others have said, EWU will rebound. I still predict they beat the Griz this year, as will UCD, Weber, and MSU. They might win one of those games, but I'd predict 1-3 for that grouping at best. Now you throw in some teams that look to be better and any one of them could jump up and beat UM. Still thinking 7-5 for the Griz, 8-4 best case.

[kennethnoisewater]

I agree with everybody on EWU. They're not your everyday 1-3 team, but I'd still argue they're not as good as we thought they would be. There has been something teams have exploited and I'm not sure what it is. I'd be surprised if they lost more than one more game all regular season.

[The MICKSTER]

I think because MSU has both SSU and UNC on our schedule, our schedule will be easier this year. I would say of our final 7 games we have essentially 2 games that will highly likely be wins and 5 that could go either way. 'um doesn't have any games that I would say are highly likely wins and thus all of their remaining games could go either way...(By either way I mean at least ~a 1 in 3 chance of losing). That's what happens when you don't play every team in your conference. Last year we had the tougher schedule by far. After this weekend we'll know quite a bit more. GO CATS!

[BozoneCat]

I agree with everybody on EWU. They're not your everyday 1-3 team, but I'd still argue they're not as good as we thought they would be. There has been something teams have exploited and I'm not sure what it is. I'd be surprised if they lost more than one more game all regular season.

The difference, as far as I can tell, is their defense. Remember, they lost their DC to Boise State, and he's killing it here so far. They can still score points in bunches, but you have to be able to get stops occasionally, or at least opportunistically, and if you're going to give up points, you have to be able to cause turnovers. EWU isn't doing that so far in their losses, which breaks my heart. No team I dislike more than Eastern, outside of obviously UMCC.

[kennethnoisewater]

If you want to look at current Sagarin rankings, UM still has a considerably tougher SOS. The average Sagarin ranking of all opponents UM plays is 138.6. MSU's opponent average is 154.9. Couple of puzzling rankings in there but overall I'd pretty much agree.

[Catsrgrood]

I was just going to expand on what Kenneth said above.
Sagarin rankings are really the best way to do a comparison like this.
No they’re not perfect, but it’s an unbiased, analytical way to compare schedules, apples to apples.

I’m throwing out the FBS games, Oregon is better than Texas Tech, and there isn’t really an argument there at this point. But in order to look at this on an FCS scale, I’m taking them out.

The Cats and griz are both obviously 3-0 right now vs the FCS. The Cats avg opponents ranking in those 3 games is 195. The griz avg opponents ranking is 187. The griz have the edge, but it’s close.

The talk this year was that the Cats have a cake walk conference schedule and the griz have a gauntlet of a conference schedule.

Right now, the Cats avg conference opponents ranking is 153.
The griz avg conference opponents ranking is 137.
So again the griz do have the tougher schedule, but it’s not a massive difference.

These rankings obviously change every week, so this might be interesting to re-visit maybe halfway through the conference schedule to see how this is playing out.

[BleedingBLue]

I think these last two weeks will be a major wake-up call for EWU that they actually have to play 60 minutes to win, and I'd guess they'll run the table in conference play or go 7-1 at the absolute worst. No UCD, no Weber, no MSU on the schedule. They'll be in the playoffs and likely back in the seed conversation by the end of the year.

I doubt they will make it into the top 8 seed conversation with 3 losses already and not playing us, Davis or Weber.

Before the season started I thought the Griz would finish 6-6, maybe 7-5. They do have a tough schedule but I think now they finish 8-4, as i thought they would lose to USD game 1.

[onceacat]

I think these last two weeks will be a major wake-up call for EWU that they actually have to play 60 minutes to win, and I'd guess they'll run the table in conference play or go 7-1 at the absolute worst. No UCD, no Weber, no MSU on the schedule. They'll be in the playoffs and likely back in the seed conversation by the end of the year.

I doubt they will make it into the top 8 seed conversation with 3 losses already and not playing us, Davis or Weber.

Before the season started I thought the Griz would finish 6-6, maybe 7-5. They do have a tough schedule but I think now they finish 8-4, as i thought they would lose to USD game 1.

If EWOO runs the tables in the Big Sky, they not only get a top 8, they get a top 4 seed. A 9-3 record as the defending national runner up?

And, looking at that schedule, it’s hard to see a loss...maybe 50-50 games in Missoula and Sacramento.

[rivercat]

Ewoo is feeling the loss of Coach Baldwin, last year's OC & DC along with that huge graduating class of seniors. I'm watching UI EWU game now and they are not the team of years past. I give them a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs and that is only because of their schedule.

[Helcat72]

EWU kind of reminds me of the Cats with Prukop. Maybe little better defense, but their defensive depth doesn't look like usual. That can get ugly real fast if they get any more injuries.
If they don't look dominant over UM and probably Sac, I don't think they will rise far enough in the rankings even if they run the table. Their schedule looks a lot easier than ours! At least we have a couple of good conference measuring sticks....Davis, UM and maybe NAU or Sac, they definitely have 3 and have already lost to two Jacksonville St and Idaho! UM is their last test before the playoffs. Can they be seeded with those two losses and maybe one more?

[91catAlum]

I think these last two weeks will be a major wake-up call for EWU that they actually have to play 60 minutes to win, and I'd guess they'll run the table in conference play or go 7-1 at the absolute worst. No UCD, no Weber, no MSU on the schedule. They'll be in the playoffs and likely back in the seed conversation by the end of the year.

I doubt they will make it into the top 8 seed conversation with 3 losses already and not playing us, Davis or Weber.

Before the season started I thought the Griz would finish 6-6, maybe 7-5. They do have a tough schedule but I think now they finish 8-4, as i thought they would lose to USD game 1.

If EWOO runs the tables in the Big Sky, they not only get a top 8, they get a top 4 seed. A 9-3 record as the defending national runner up?

And, looking at that schedule, it’s hard to see a loss...maybe 50-50 games in Missoula and Sacramento.

Not sure 9-3 would get anybody a top 4 seed. Which teams are you going to put EWU above when their best win would be the griz? Certainly not Ndsu, jmu, ucd, or sdsu.

[cats2506]

I think these last two weeks will be a major wake-up call for EWU that they actually have to play 60 minutes to win, and I'd guess they'll run the table in conference play or go 7-1 at the absolute worst. No UCD, no Weber, no MSU on the schedule. They'll be in the playoffs and likely back in the seed conversation by the end of the year.

I doubt they will make it into the top 8 seed conversation with 3 losses already and not playing us, Davis or Weber.

Before the season started I thought the Griz would finish 6-6, maybe 7-5. They do have a tough schedule but I think now they finish 8-4, as i thought they would lose to USD game 1.

If EWOO runs the tables in the Big Sky, they not only get a top 8, they get a top 4 seed. A 9-3 record as the defending national runner up?

And, looking at that schedule, it’s hard to see a loss...maybe 50-50 games in Missoula and Sacramento.

Not sure 9-3 would get anybody a top 4 seed. Which teams are you going to put EWU above when their best win would be the griz? Certainly not Ndsu, jmu, ucd, or sdsu.

also at 9-3 one of their wins is a DII. EWU needs to win out to ensure the playoffs, if they drop 1 game they are a bubble team, 2 games and they are watching from home. they have 8 games left, and have ZERO DI wins right now, the only ranked opponent on their schedule is um, SAC may be ranked at some point but EWU has to beat um in Missoula to be sure of getting a playoff spot

[onceacat]

I think these last two weeks will be a major wake-up call for EWU that they actually have to play 60 minutes to win, and I'd guess they'll run the table in conference play or go 7-1 at the absolute worst. No UCD, no Weber, no MSU on the schedule. They'll be in the playoffs and likely back in the seed conversation by the end of the year.

I doubt they will make it into the top 8 seed conversation with 3 losses already and not playing us, Davis or Weber.

Before the season started I thought the Griz would finish 6-6, maybe 7-5. They do have a tough schedule but I think now they finish 8-4, as i thought they would lose to USD game 1.

If EWOO runs the tables in the Big Sky, they not only get a top 8, they get a top 4 seed. A 9-3 record as the defending national runner up?

And, looking at that schedule, it’s hard to see a loss...maybe 50-50 games in Missoula and Sacramento.

Not sure 9-3 would get anybody a top 4 seed. Which teams are you going to put EWU above when their best win would be the griz? Certainly not Ndsu, jmu, ucd, or sdsu.

also at 9-3 one of their wins is a DII. EWU needs to win out to ensure the playoffs, if they drop 1 game they are a bubble team, 2 games and they are watching from home. they have 8 games left, and have ZERO DI wins right now, the only ranked opponent on their schedule is um, SAC may be ranked at some point but EWU has to beat um in Missoula to be sure of getting a playoff spot

Thats assuming they run the table. If Davis also runs the table, Davis is probably the 3 or 4 seed. But if the Eagles are on an 8 game win streak going into Thanksgiving, rest assured they are going to get a first round bye.