Sagarin Rankings

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Catsrgrood
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Sagarin Rankings

Post by Catsrgrood » Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:02 am

Before I get the responses “who cares”, “these mean nothing”, etc, I totally get that. Rankings ultimately don’t mean much, especially after only one week into the season, when so many teams played up or down a level.

But I still think they are interesting to look at and will be interesting to see how it changes as the weeks go on. Sagarin has long been one of the more respected ranking systems that takes a lot into account.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Cats are currently 147th overall and 26th in FCS

Texas Tech- 33rd overall
SEMO-143rd overall and 22nd in FCS
WIU-151 overall and 28th in FCS
Norfolk State-227th overall and and 97th in FCS
North Dakota- 140th overall, 19th in FCS

Big Sky (opponents in bold):

EWU- 108 overall, 6th in FCS
Weber-114th overall, 7th in FCS
UC Davis-116th overall, 9th in FCS
UM-119th overall, 12th in FCS
NAU- 149th overall, 27th in FCS
Cal Poly- 165th overall, 38th in FCS
Idaho State- 168th overall, 40th in FCS
Portland State 170th overall, 42nd in FCS
Idaho- 185th overall, 56th in FCS
Southern Utah-194th overall, 64th in FCS
Sac St- 199th overall, 69th in FCS
Northern Colorado- 204th overall, 74th in FCS
Last edited by Catsrgrood on Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.



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RockyBearCat
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Re: Interesting Rankings

Post by RockyBearCat » Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:22 am

Thanks Catsrgood... I like this and it would be interesting to see on a weekly basis with changes. I think it would be good to have the full big sky and all 2019 Cats opponents in a spreadsheet and just drop an update each week. If you don't want to do that, I am willing.



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Re: Interesting Rankings

Post by Catsrgrood » Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:26 am

RockyBearCat wrote:
Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:22 am
Thanks Catsrgood... I like this and it would be interesting to see on a weekly basis with changes. I think it would be good to have the full big sky and all 2019 Cats opponents in a spreadsheet and just drop an update each week. If you don't want to do that, I am willing.
I can do something like that. I’ll update the post above with the rest of the Big Sky and then just do a post each Monday with the new rankings for each team.



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Re: Sagarin Rankings

Post by Blixtonz » Thu Sep 05, 2019 7:51 pm

My opinion, looking through our schedule and understanding that these are 'vapor stats' so early in the season, is that you couldn't craft a better schedule for the Bobcats.

I love the SEMO twist and that they popped up ahead of us prior to gold rush. You couldn't script a better setup for this team. Fingers crossed, go CATS!



Catsrgrood
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Re: Sagarin Rankings

Post by Catsrgrood » Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:23 am

A lot of changes in week in week 2. There will be a lot of changes in the first 4-5 weeks.

Big jump for the Cats, up 46 spots to 101st overall and 5th in FCS

Texas Tech- 19th overall
SEMO-139th overall and 21st in FCS
WIU-198th overall and 74th in FCS
Norfolk State-219th overall and and 94th in FCS
North Dakota- 147th overall, 25th in FCS

Big Sky (opponents in bold):

Weber-100th overall, 4th in FCS
UM-112th overall, 7th in FCS
EWU- 121st overall, 10th in FCS
UC Davis-134th overall, 17th in FCS
NAU- 160th overall, 34th in FCS
Cal Poly- 163rd overall, 37th in FCS
Idaho State- 167th overall, 39th in FCS
Portland State 169th overall, 41st in FCS
Northern Colorado- 171st overall, 43rd in FCS
Sac St- 172nd overall, 44th in FCS
Idaho- 193rd overall, 64th in FCS
Southern Utah-208th overall, 78th in FCS


http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Last edited by Catsrgrood on Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:22 am, edited 5 times in total.



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Re: Sagarin Rankings

Post by BLACKnBLUEnGOLD » Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:02 pm

Interesting that SEMO actually moved up after the beating they took. I guess Tech moving up made our loss look better, which made their loss look okay?


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Re: Sagarin Rankings

Post by cats2506 » Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:33 pm

BLACKnBLUEnGOLD wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:02 pm
Interesting that SEMO actually moved up after the beating they took. I guess Tech moving up made our loss look better, which made their loss look okay?
SIU beat Umass (FBS) yesterday, SEMO beat SIU last week, that probably helped them the most


PlayerRep wrote:The point is not the record of the teams UM beat, it's the quality and record of the teams UM almost beat.

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Re: Sagarin Rankings

Post by BLACKnBLUEnGOLD » Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:37 pm

cats2506 wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:33 pm
BLACKnBLUEnGOLD wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:02 pm
Interesting that SEMO actually moved up after the beating they took. I guess Tech moving up made our loss look better, which made their loss look okay?
SIU beat Umass (FBS) yesterday, SEMO beat SIU last week, that probably helped them the most
That makes sense.


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Re: Sagarin Rankings

Post by onceacat » Sun Sep 08, 2019 5:44 pm

BLACKnBLUEnGOLD wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:37 pm
cats2506 wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:33 pm
BLACKnBLUEnGOLD wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:02 pm
Interesting that SEMO actually moved up after the beating they took. I guess Tech moving up made our loss look better, which made their loss look okay?
SIU beat Umass (FBS) yesterday, SEMO beat SIU last week, that probably helped them the most
That makes sense.
SEMO (Big loss to us) and UTEP (Big loss to TT) are actually ranked 139 and 140. Our big win over SEMO probably made Techs big win over us look better, which moved them up, which moved us up. The computers don't have many data points to go off of at this point...Our big jump actually puts us up as the #2 team in the Big Sky-basically tied with Weber- & #5 in the country.



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Re: Sagarin Rankings

Post by sdsyvie » Sun Sep 08, 2019 7:41 pm

Super interesting stuff, will be a ton of fun watching the team trends!



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Re: Sagarin Rankings

Post by Catsrgrood » Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:40 am

A lot of changes again, there will be a lot of movement in the early weeks of these rankings.

Big drop for the Cats after an ugly win and Texas Tech loss, down 43 spots to 144th overall and 25th in FCS

Texas Tech- 46th overall, 45th in FBS (NDSU is 29th)
SEMO-172nd overall and 45th in FCS
WIU-184th overall and 55th in FCS
Norfolk State-230th overall and and 100th in FCS
North Dakota- 125th overall, 16th in FCS

Big Sky (opponents in bold):

UM-102nd overall, 5th in FCS
Weber-110th overall, 8th in FCS
Sac St- 113th overall, 9th in FCS
UC Davis-115th overall, 10th in FCS
EWU- 117th overall, 12th in FCS
NAU- 149th overall, 29th in FCS
Portland State 153rd overall, 32nd in FCS
Idaho State- 168th overall, 42nd in FCS
Idaho- 169th overall, 43rd in FCS
Cal Poly- 170th overall, 44th in FCS
Northern Colorado- 200th overall, 71st in FCS
Southern Utah-201st overall, 72nd in FCS


http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Last edited by Catsrgrood on Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.



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Re: Sagarin Rankings

Post by onceacat » Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:32 am

Catsrgrood wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:40 am
A lot of changes again, there will be a lot of movement in the early weeks of these rankings.

Big drop for the Cats after an ugly win and Texas Tech loss, down 43 spots to 144th overall and 25th in FCS

Texas Tech- 46th overall, 45th in FBS (NDSU is 29th)
SEMO-172nd overall and 45th in FCS
WIU-184th overall and 55th in FCS
Norfolk State-230th overall and and 100th in FCS
North Dakota- 125th overall, 16th in FCS

Big Sky (opponents in bold):

UM-102nd overall, 5th in FCS
Weber-110th overall, 8th in FCS
Sac St- 113th overall, 9th in FCS
UC Davis-115th overall, 10th in FCS
EWU- 117th overall, 12th in FCS
NAU- 149th overall, 29th in FCS
Portland State 153rd overall, 32nd in FCS
Idaho State- 168th overall, 42nd in FCS
Idaho- 169th overall, 43rd in FCS
Cal Poly- 170th overall, 44th in FCS
Northern Colorado- 200th overall, 71st in FCS
Southern Utah-201st overall, 72nd in FCS


http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm


I accidentally edited my last post instead of quoting it. ](*,)
So I’ll go back and edit the last one at some point today
Starting next week or so, these should start stabilizing...gotta get enough data points in the computers to start making it clear which games are outliers and which games are part of the normal distribution.



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Re: Sagarin Rankings

Post by Catsrgrood » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:18 pm

This seems to be the week where things are starting to stabilize a bit, no big 40 spot swings one way or another.

Small jump for the Cats, up 7 spots to 137th overall and 18th in FCS

Texas Tech- 46th overall, 45th in FBS (NDSU is 40th)
SEMO-160th overall and 37th in FCS
WIU-192nd overall and 63rd in FCS
Norfolk State-235th overall and and 105th in FCS
North Dakota- 146th overall, 24th in FCS

Big Sky (opponents in bold):

UC Davis-107th overall, 5th in FCS
UM-108th overall, 6th in FCS
Weber-113th overall, 9th in FCS
EWU- 124th overall, 14th in FCS
Sac St- 135th overall, 17th in FCS
MSU- 137th overall, 18th in FCS
Idaho- 153rd overall, 31st in FCS
Idaho State- 155th overall, 33rd in FCS
NAU- 158th overall, 35th in FCS
Cal Poly- 163rd overall, 40th in FCS
Portland State 167th overall, 44th in FCS
Southern Utah-201st overall, 72nd in FCS
Northern Colorado- 208th overall, 78th in FCS

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm



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Re: Sagarin Rankings

Post by Catsrgrood » Sun Sep 29, 2019 10:23 am

Another small jump for the Cats, up 13 spots to 124th overall and 14th in FCS

Texas Tech- 53rd overall, 52nd in FBS (NDSU is 46th overall)
SEMO-158th overall and 35th in FCS
WIU- 187th overall and 58th in FCS
Norfolk State- 233rd overall and and 103rd in FCS
North Dakota- 149th overall, 27th in FCS

Big Sky (opponents in bold):

UM-96th overall, 4th in FCS
Weber-107th overall, 6th in FCS
EWU- 114th overall, 9th in FCS
MSU- 124th overall, 14th in FCS
UC Davis-129th overall, 15th in FCS
Sac St- 138th overall, 19th in FCS
Idaho State- 140th overall, 21st in FCS
Idaho- 153rd overall, 30th in FCS
NAU- 162nd overall, 38th in FCS
Cal Poly- 165th overall,41st in FCS
Portland State- 175th overall,47th in FCS
Southern Utah- 193rd overall, 64th in FCS
Northern Colorado- 199th overall, 70th in FCS

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm



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Re: Sagarin Rankings

Post by Long Time Cat » Sun Sep 29, 2019 12:21 pm

I think it's interesting. Thanks for doing it. As much as it pains me to say it I think the griz should be ranked higher than us. Also Weber not sure about Eastern. But as they say it will work itself out. That's why you play the game.


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Re: Sagarin Rankings

Post by onceacat » Sun Sep 29, 2019 12:36 pm

Long Time Cat wrote:
Sun Sep 29, 2019 12:21 pm
I think it's interesting. Thanks for doing it. As much as it pains me to say it I think the griz should be ranked higher than us. Also Weber not sure about Eastern. But as they say it will work itself out. That's why you play the game.
I think if you were to do power rankings in the BSC at this point, its clearly the Griz and Weebs standing head and shoulders above anyone else. (And, as much as I hate to say it, the Griz have probably earned the #1 with their smackdown of Top 5 UCD in Davis)

Then you've got a total cluster in the second tier...I'm not sure how to stack up EWOO, Davis, MSU, and Sac. I think you could pretty much draw them out of a hat at this point and make a pretty decent argument for whichever order you want to put them.

Its going to be interesting to see how the unbalanced season shakes out. Right now, if you told me that the BSC champ would have 3 losses, I wouldn't really argue.



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Re: Sagarin Rankings

Post by codecat » Sun Sep 29, 2019 1:13 pm

The CSM rankings are out today...
4 - Weber
8 - UM
9 - Montana State
12-UC Davis

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fc ... 5-rankings


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Re: Sagarin Rankings

Post by GoCats18 » Sun Sep 29, 2019 5:09 pm

I just think it is stupid when a team plays a weak schedule and then wins one big game and everyone goes crazy. Look at who UC Davis has played and maybe people would realize that it takes a lot to play a schedule like that over the first 4 weeks compared to playing very weak schools. UM struggled at home before halftime against 2 very weak teams. They rolled the dice and got a lucky win yesterday. I think polls are absolutely stupid until the last week of the season is done with.


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Re: Sagarin Rankings

Post by Catsrgrood » Sun Sep 29, 2019 5:17 pm

GoCats18 wrote:
Sun Sep 29, 2019 5:09 pm
I just think it is stupid when a team plays a weak schedule and then wins one big game and everyone goes crazy. Look at who UC Davis has played and maybe people would realize that it takes a lot to play a schedule like that over the first 4 weeks compared to playing very weak schools. UM struggled at home before halftime against 2 very weak teams. They rolled the dice and got a lucky win yesterday. I think polls are absolutely stupid until the last week of the season is done with.
To be fair, Sagarin isn’t a poll, it’s a basically a computer algorithm that takes strength of schedule into account.
As the weeks go on this is, in theory, more accurate because there is more data to pull from.



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Re: Sagarin Rankings

Post by onceacat » Sun Sep 29, 2019 5:33 pm

Catsrgrood wrote:
Sun Sep 29, 2019 5:17 pm
GoCats18 wrote:
Sun Sep 29, 2019 5:09 pm
I just think it is stupid when a team plays a weak schedule and then wins one big game and everyone goes crazy. Look at who UC Davis has played and maybe people would realize that it takes a lot to play a schedule like that over the first 4 weeks compared to playing very weak schools. UM struggled at home before halftime against 2 very weak teams. They rolled the dice and got a lucky win yesterday. I think polls are absolutely stupid until the last week of the season is done with.
To be fair, Sagarin isn’t a poll, it’s a basically a computer algorithm that takes strength of schedule into account.
As the weeks go on this is, in theory, more accurate because there is more data to pull from.
The great thing about computer rankings (and, to be fair, a weakness as well) is that it avoids the built in biases that fans have. Right now, (unfortunately) UM has one of the best resumes in the country.



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