Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition
Posted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:17 am
Great read. Looking forward to your next post. Kennesaw State should fall below MSU in the polls.
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Agreed. What I was trying to say is that the eastern teams have a scheduling advantage that the playoff committee should recognize. Portland State this year was basically done even before the season started: 2 FBS and 2 D2 games on the schedule. They would have had to go 7-1 the rest of the season to become playoff eligible. In the meantime, average CAA teams like Stony Brook has 2 NEAC games and 1 Patriot League game on the schedule (and all wins).Catprint wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:16 pmTwo fold problem:
1) Playing down happens out west due to the dearth of D1 teams. In the east, CAA has MEAC, NEC, Southern, Big South, Patriot and OVC conferences to choose from with little travel issues. Out west, we have Southland and MVFC (kinda). So teams like PSU and ISU can't afford to pay NEC and MEAC teams to come out west. They are forced to find DII schools to fill the schedule. Part of the reason Cal Poly and UND only play 11 games this year.
2) Playing up to FBS is mostly about the money. In a 12 game schedule, it is a wise decision to take the money because you still have 11 games to hit 7 D1 wins. The 12 game schedule does not change the 7 D1 win threshold so it is money in the bank. In a normal 11 game season, it comes down to scheduling. It is better for some teams to schedule an FBS team, lose and still make the 7 wins (like EWU does most years). What i don't understand is the teams that play two FBS teams. Really a tough scheduling issue.
Good points, but one thing I don't understand is why there aren't more OOC Big Sky games? With 13 teams you think everyone would be able to fill a schedule without any DIIs. $$ games will always be necessary for most FCS teams but in the Big Sky you could play the other teams that didn't count for conf games. Another question I had, is it allowable for teams to play each other twice, once OOC and once IC? Not sure if coaches would want to do that but I was wondering if it was an option.Catprint wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:16 pmTwo fold problem:
1) Playing down happens out west due to the dearth of D1 teams. In the east, CAA has MEAC, NEC, Southern, Big South, Patriot and OVC conferences to choose from with little travel issues. Out west, we have Southland and MVFC (kinda). So teams like PSU and ISU can't afford to pay NEC and MEAC teams to come out west. They are forced to find DII schools to fill the schedule. Part of the reason Cal Poly and UND only play 11 games this year.
2) Playing up to FBS is mostly about the money. In a 12 game schedule, it is a wise decision to take the money because you still have 11 games to hit 7 D1 wins. The 12 game schedule does not change the 7 D1 win threshold so it is money in the bank. In a normal 11 game season, it comes down to scheduling. It is better for some teams to schedule an FBS team, lose and still make the 7 wins (like EWU does most years). What i don't understand is the teams that play two FBS teams. Really a tough scheduling issue.
Since most teams have a 12 game schedule this season I'm not sure 7 wins gets you in this year. If MSU ends the season 7-5 I doubt we get in.Catprint wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:16 pmTwo fold problem:
1) Playing down happens out west due to the dearth of D1 teams. In the east, CAA has MEAC, NEC, Southern, Big South, Patriot and OVC conferences to choose from with little travel issues. Out west, we have Southland and MVFC (kinda). So teams like PSU and ISU can't afford to pay NEC and MEAC teams to come out west. They are forced to find DII schools to fill the schedule. Part of the reason Cal Poly and UND only play 11 games this year.
2) Playing up to FBS is mostly about the money. In a 12 game schedule, it is a wise decision to take the money because you still have 11 games to hit 7 D1 wins. The 12 game schedule does not change the 7 D1 win threshold so it is money in the bank. In a normal 11 game season, it comes down to scheduling. It is better for some teams to schedule an FBS team, lose and still make the 7 wins (like EWU does most years). What i don't understand is the teams that play two FBS teams. Really a tough scheduling issue.
Nor should we. IF we don't win two of the next three it's my opinion we probably don't belong in the playoffs and probably couldn't compete with the big dogs anyway. For the record, I think we win at least two of the next three and host. I think Cat\Griz will be for a seed.110010110 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:29 pmSince most teams have a 12 game schedule this season I'm not sure 7 wins gets you in this year. If MSU ends the season 7-5 I doubt we get in.Catprint wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:16 pmTwo fold problem:
1) Playing down happens out west due to the dearth of D1 teams. In the east, CAA has MEAC, NEC, Southern, Big South, Patriot and OVC conferences to choose from with little travel issues. Out west, we have Southland and MVFC (kinda). So teams like PSU and ISU can't afford to pay NEC and MEAC teams to come out west. They are forced to find DII schools to fill the schedule. Part of the reason Cal Poly and UND only play 11 games this year.
2) Playing up to FBS is mostly about the money. In a 12 game schedule, it is a wise decision to take the money because you still have 11 games to hit 7 D1 wins. The 12 game schedule does not change the 7 D1 win threshold so it is money in the bank. In a normal 11 game season, it comes down to scheduling. It is better for some teams to schedule an FBS team, lose and still make the 7 wins (like EWU does most years). What i don't understand is the teams that play two FBS teams. Really a tough scheduling issue.
Well, 7 D1 wins is the magic threshold to be qualified. Doesn't mean you get in, I agree. In a 12 game schedule, 7 wins will still get you a look by the committee. As i have said all year long in my post, i don't think 7 wins will be good enough this year. However, the way the CAA and Southland are eating their young, it is possible there will be a dearth of 8 D1 win teams. Could be a lot of 6-6 and 7-5 teams (at least ones from a power conference). That might bode well if the Cats only win one of three (beat UNC; lose to UC-Davis in a close one and then a real close one with Griz that goes down the wire and Cats lose.) Not predicting that or wishing for that scenario. Just painting an option where if lots of games go our way the last 2 weeks, we could still sneak in at 7-5 based on SOS and playing strong at the end. Not likely but could happen. Two or three 6 D1 win teams got in last year as has been pointed out. Lamar and ICW both only won 6 D1 games - and got in partly due to the lack of 7 win teams with a good resume (at least if you believe the playoff committee.)catatac wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 7:54 pmNor should we. IF we don't win two of the next three it's my opinion we probably don't belong in the playoffs and probably couldn't compete with the big dogs anyway. For the record, I think we win at least two of the next three and host. I think Cat\Griz will be for a seed.110010110 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:29 pmSince most teams have a 12 game schedule this season I'm not sure 7 wins gets you in this year. If MSU ends the season 7-5 I doubt we get in.Catprint wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:16 pmTwo fold problem:
1) Playing down happens out west due to the dearth of D1 teams. In the east, CAA has MEAC, NEC, Southern, Big South, Patriot and OVC conferences to choose from with little travel issues. Out west, we have Southland and MVFC (kinda). So teams like PSU and ISU can't afford to pay NEC and MEAC teams to come out west. They are forced to find DII schools to fill the schedule. Part of the reason Cal Poly and UND only play 11 games this year.
2) Playing up to FBS is mostly about the money. In a 12 game schedule, it is a wise decision to take the money because you still have 11 games to hit 7 D1 wins. The 12 game schedule does not change the 7 D1 win threshold so it is money in the bank. In a normal 11 game season, it comes down to scheduling. It is better for some teams to schedule an FBS team, lose and still make the 7 wins (like EWU does most years). What i don't understand is the teams that play two FBS teams. Really a tough scheduling issue.
I think for 7 d1 wins to get us in, we would have to beat UM after they win the remainder of their games. Translation, we better win 8 games because if we can't beat UNC or UCD then I don't think we beat a 9-2 Griz team.Catprint wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:10 amWell, 7 D1 wins is the magic threshold to be qualified. Doesn't mean you get in, I agree. In a 12 game schedule, 7 wins will still get you a look by the committee. As i have said all year long in my post, i don't think 7 wins will be good enough this year. However, the way the CAA and Southland are eating their young, it is possible there will be a dearth of 8 D1 win teams. Could be a lot of 6-6 and 7-5 teams (at least ones from a power conference). That might bode well if the Cats only win one of three (beat UNC; lose to UC-Davis in a close one and then a real close one with Griz that goes down the wire and Cats lose.) Not predicting that or wishing for that scenario. Just painting an option where if lots of games go our way the last 2 weeks, we could still sneak in at 7-5 based on SOS and playing strong at the end. Not likely but could happen. Two or three 6 D1 win teams got in last year as has been pointed out. Lamar and ICW both only won 6 D1 games - and got in partly due to the lack of 7 win teams with a good resume (at least if you believe the playoff committee.)catatac wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 7:54 pmNor should we. IF we don't win two of the next three it's my opinion we probably don't belong in the playoffs and probably couldn't compete with the big dogs anyway. For the record, I think we win at least two of the next three and host. I think Cat\Griz will be for a seed.110010110 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:29 pmSince most teams have a 12 game schedule this season I'm not sure 7 wins gets you in this year. If MSU ends the season 7-5 I doubt we get in.Catprint wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:16 pmTwo fold problem:
1) Playing down happens out west due to the dearth of D1 teams. In the east, CAA has MEAC, NEC, Southern, Big South, Patriot and OVC conferences to choose from with little travel issues. Out west, we have Southland and MVFC (kinda). So teams like PSU and ISU can't afford to pay NEC and MEAC teams to come out west. They are forced to find DII schools to fill the schedule. Part of the reason Cal Poly and UND only play 11 games this year.
2) Playing up to FBS is mostly about the money. In a 12 game schedule, it is a wise decision to take the money because you still have 11 games to hit 7 D1 wins. The 12 game schedule does not change the 7 D1 win threshold so it is money in the bank. In a normal 11 game season, it comes down to scheduling. It is better for some teams to schedule an FBS team, lose and still make the 7 wins (like EWU does most years). What i don't understand is the teams that play two FBS teams. Really a tough scheduling issue.
I think the odds of um beating Weber are pretty slim. I hope to see a Cat griz game with both teams sitting at 8-3.technoCat wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:52 amI think for 7 d1 wins to get us in, we would have to beat UM after they win the remainder of their games. Translation, we better win 8 games because if we can't beat UNC or UCD then I don't think we beat a 9-2 Griz team.Catprint wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:10 amWell, 7 D1 wins is the magic threshold to be qualified. Doesn't mean you get in, I agree. In a 12 game schedule, 7 wins will still get you a look by the committee. As i have said all year long in my post, i don't think 7 wins will be good enough this year. However, the way the CAA and Southland are eating their young, it is possible there will be a dearth of 8 D1 win teams. Could be a lot of 6-6 and 7-5 teams (at least ones from a power conference). That might bode well if the Cats only win one of three (beat UNC; lose to UC-Davis in a close one and then a real close one with Griz that goes down the wire and Cats lose.) Not predicting that or wishing for that scenario. Just painting an option where if lots of games go our way the last 2 weeks, we could still sneak in at 7-5 based on SOS and playing strong at the end. Not likely but could happen. Two or three 6 D1 win teams got in last year as has been pointed out. Lamar and ICW both only won 6 D1 games - and got in partly due to the lack of 7 win teams with a good resume (at least if you believe the playoff committee.)catatac wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 7:54 pmNor should we. IF we don't win two of the next three it's my opinion we probably don't belong in the playoffs and probably couldn't compete with the big dogs anyway. For the record, I think we win at least two of the next three and host. I think Cat\Griz will be for a seed.110010110 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:29 pmSince most teams have a 12 game schedule this season I'm not sure 7 wins gets you in this year. If MSU ends the season 7-5 I doubt we get in.Catprint wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:16 pmTwo fold problem:
1) Playing down happens out west due to the dearth of D1 teams. In the east, CAA has MEAC, NEC, Southern, Big South, Patriot and OVC conferences to choose from with little travel issues. Out west, we have Southland and MVFC (kinda). So teams like PSU and ISU can't afford to pay NEC and MEAC teams to come out west. They are forced to find DII schools to fill the schedule. Part of the reason Cal Poly and UND only play 11 games this year.
2) Playing up to FBS is mostly about the money. In a 12 game schedule, it is a wise decision to take the money because you still have 11 games to hit 7 D1 wins. The 12 game schedule does not change the 7 D1 win threshold so it is money in the bank. In a normal 11 game season, it comes down to scheduling. It is better for some teams to schedule an FBS team, lose and still make the 7 wins (like EWU does most years). What i don't understand is the teams that play two FBS teams. Really a tough scheduling issue.
Cataholic wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 3:19 pmAgreed. What I was trying to say is that the eastern teams have a scheduling advantage that the playoff committee should recognize. Portland State this year was basically done even before the season started: 2 FBS and 2 D2 games on the schedule. They would have had to go 7-1 the rest of the season to become playoff eligible. In the meantime, average CAA teams like Stony Brook has 2 NEAC games and 1 Patriot League game on the schedule (and all wins).Catprint wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:16 pmTwo fold problem:
1) Playing down happens out west due to the dearth of D1 teams. In the east, CAA has MEAC, NEC, Southern, Big South, Patriot and OVC conferences to choose from with little travel issues. Out west, we have Southland and MVFC (kinda). So teams like PSU and ISU can't afford to pay NEC and MEAC teams to come out west. They are forced to find DII schools to fill the schedule. Part of the reason Cal Poly and UND only play 11 games this year.
2) Playing up to FBS is mostly about the money. In a 12 game schedule, it is a wise decision to take the money because you still have 11 games to hit 7 D1 wins. The 12 game schedule does not change the 7 D1 win threshold so it is money in the bank. In a normal 11 game season, it comes down to scheduling. It is better for some teams to schedule an FBS team, lose and still make the 7 wins (like EWU does most years). What i don't understand is the teams that play two FBS teams. Really a tough scheduling issue.
Good leadership in the Big Sky could form more “conference challenge” alignments that would offer more MVFC, Ohio Valley, Southland and Pioneer League matchups.
The more I look at the home stretch for a lot of these teams, the more I think you are right. I think a couple of 7-5 teams are going to squeak into the playoffs given the parity in the CAA and MVFC. But if we can't at least split the UCD/UM games and finish at 8-4, the playoffs are going to be one and done.coochorama42 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:32 pmI disagree with those that don't think that 7 wins gets us in. It's obviously not ideal and we'll have to sweat it out a bit, but I don't think 8 FCS win teams out of the Ohio Valley, Big South, Southland, and Southern Conference are going to get a bid over a 7-FCS win Big Sky, MVFC, or CAA team. Given that the CAA is going to be lucky to get 3 teams to 7 wins in conference (there are no promises outside of JMU), this bodes well for a 7-4 FCS record for MSU. If I had to guess, there would be 13 total teams out of the power 3 conferences + North Dakota with 7 wins. These are James Madison, Villanova, New Hampshire, Towson or Stony Brook, Weber State, Sacramento State, Montana, Montana State, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Northern Iowa, Illinois State, and North Dakota. Many of the teams listed have little to no room for error. This list will likely get trimmed to the three automatic bids plus 8-9 at-large candidates that end up with 7+ wins. This still leaves room for 1-2 more teams out of the Southland, Big South, Ohio Valley, or Southern conferences. The potential 8 win team I am MOST concerned may take away a spot from a 7 win MSU team is the Citadel (FBS win Georgia Tech). The mess that is the Ohio Valley Conference could cause some problems, but would an 8-2 FCS SEMO squad really make the playoffs ahead of a 7-4 MSU squad?? Since they beat Southern Illinois, they could argue to be in the playoffs over SIU, but SIU then went out and beat an FBS team (Massachusetts). Again, our worst case scenario is that all 13 teams above make it to 7 wins, plus SEMO and Austin Peay both win out as does the Citadel. While I expect 8+ wins, I still take my chances with 7...
There are some rumors floating around and the move makes sense on many levels. Lots of questions about who would join the conference. I am guessing it will consist of more D2 teams moving up to join the conference versus teams leaving the Big Sky. But then again, the Big Sky seems to have missed on various items and maybe teams see greener pastures by moving on. The WAC has a storied history and maybe just the name could create more marketing appeal for a team like Sac State. When #3 Weber played #6 Sacramento last week, they only managed to draw 11,000 people in a metro area of more than 2 million people.wapiti wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:37 pmCataholic wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 3:19 pmAgreed. What I was trying to say is that the eastern teams have a scheduling advantage that the playoff committee should recognize. Portland State this year was basically done even before the season started: 2 FBS and 2 D2 games on the schedule. They would have had to go 7-1 the rest of the season to become playoff eligible. In the meantime, average CAA teams like Stony Brook has 2 NEAC games and 1 Patriot League game on the schedule (and all wins).Catprint wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:16 pmTwo fold problem:
1) Playing down happens out west due to the dearth of D1 teams. In the east, CAA has MEAC, NEC, Southern, Big South, Patriot and OVC conferences to choose from with little travel issues. Out west, we have Southland and MVFC (kinda). So teams like PSU and ISU can't afford to pay NEC and MEAC teams to come out west. They are forced to find DII schools to fill the schedule. Part of the reason Cal Poly and UND only play 11 games this year.
2) Playing up to FBS is mostly about the money. In a 12 game schedule, it is a wise decision to take the money because you still have 11 games to hit 7 D1 wins. The 12 game schedule does not change the 7 D1 win threshold so it is money in the bank. In a normal 11 game season, it comes down to scheduling. It is better for some teams to schedule an FBS team, lose and still make the 7 wins (like EWU does most years). What i don't understand is the teams that play two FBS teams. Really a tough scheduling issue.
Good leadership in the Big Sky could form more “conference challenge” alignments that would offer more MVFC, Ohio Valley, Southland and Pioneer League matchups.
Is there a rumor that the WAC may restart football at the FCS level??? Dixie and NMSU as the first 2 members and then several Big Sky Teams may switch over, such as the 3 cali teams and NAU and maybe even SUU???
Having a 2nd FCS conference out West would help with scheduling and it should also have an auto bid to playoffs if 4 or 5 Big Sky teams switched.
Part of the rumor included a plan to eventually go FBS too.
Oh, I understood what you were staying. I think people overestimate the quality of FCS football outside the Big Sky, Missouri Valley, and CAA. And this year the CAA does not have the quality they normally have.