Pathway to Playoffs 2019 Edition
Week 5
Ok, once again work got in the way of intent. Finishing up this post in San Francisco (while trying to get to my hotel through climate change protests that closed a number of main streets downtown forcing us all to walk with suitcases.) This week I am assessing all the Big Sky teams before the start of the conference games. I am hoping to add some insight beyond the preseason normal analysis by the real sportswriters and generate some controversy by my assessments. Looking for some of you to say my analysis is full of it and you have much better picture of how the league is going to play out.
Some basic thoughts on how I look at the race.
• I include North Dakota (UND) as a Big Sky team just like I did last year. If they are doing well, the committee is going to compare UND to other Big Sky teams – this is the last year they do Big Sky schedule.
• The Big Sky is not going to get any more than 5 playoff teams and that may really be a stretch. More likely, there will only be 4 teams in the playoffs. Given there are 5 rated teams and 2 or 3 at the cusp, there are going to be teams left out even with 7 Div. I wins. For example, the current Hero Sports projection has MVFC and CAA with 5 teams each in the playoffs while both sportswriters have the Big Sky with only 4 teams even though the Big Sky has 6 teams in the top 25.
• I tried hard to take into account the schedule each team has to play. Our leagues unbalanced schedule provides opportunities and risks to various teams – like opportunity to Eastern with a soft schedule and risks to the Griz with one of the more difficult ones.
• I place each team in one of four groups – from the highest chance of making the playoffs to the least likely. There is no order within the groups.
• I assume no one is going to run the table with 8 wins. Sure it is possible but with so many strong teams, I don’t see it happening.
• Finally, I include a table of information that outlines various polls, records and stats for each team that helped me place teams in one of the four categories.
Assess the Sky
Team......Record......FBS......FCS......DIV II....Preseason.. Conf Wins....NCAA.....NCAA........Sagarin...Poll... Non Conf......Last Year....Playoff
...........................Games..Games..Games...Conf Polls..needed.......Offense..Defense.....Rank......Rank..Game Left.....Conf.........Group
........................................................................to qualify......Rank.....Rank
MSU........3-1.........0-1........3-0.......0........4.5............4...............29.........65..........137........7.......0................5-3........1-High
UC Davis...2-2........0-1.........2-1.......0........2..............5...............33.........42..........107........4.......0.................7-1........1-High
WSU........1-2........ 0-2........1-0.......0........3..............5 or 6.........117........30..........113........5.......FCS-UNI.........7-1.......1-High
Montana...3-1.........0-1........3-0.......0........4.5...........4................16........88...........118.......18......0.................4-4........1-High
EWU........1-3........0-1.........0-2......1-0........1............7................9..........84..........124.......21......0.................7-1........2-Med High
NAU........2-2.........0-1........1-1......1-0........6............6................11........103.........158................0..................3-4........2-Med High
UND........2-1.........0..........2-1........0........NA...........5................91.........12.........146................11 games only...4-4........2-Med High
Sac State..2-2.........0-2........1-0......1-0.......11.5.........6................19........32..........135................0...................0-7........3-Med Low
Idaho.......2-2........ 0-2........1-0......1-0........8............6................77........85..........153................0..................3-5........3-Med low
Cal Poly....1-2.........0-1........1-1........0........9............6................44........117.........163...............11 games only....4-4........3-Med Low
PSU.........2-2.........0-2........0-0......2-0.......10...........7................28........13..........167................0...................3-5........4-No
ISU.........1-2.........0-1.........0-1......1-0........7...........7................107........22.........155................FBS -BYU.........5-3........4-No
S Utah.....1-3.........0-1.........1-2.......0........11.5........6.................75.........78..........201...............0...................1-7........4-No
No. Colo...0-4........0-2.........0-2.......0.........13..........7................113........111........208................0...................2-6........4-No
PS - could use some help on how to get a table into the post.
Montana State
Don’t need to say more than you all know. Our conference schedule is favorable and our current record gives us a leg up. I do think we have to go 6-2 in conference play to have a chance at a seed in the playoffs but more about that later. I rate our changes as #1- High.
UC Davis
Non-Conference Status
2-2 with NDSU and Cal (FBS) loss and wins against Lehigh and San Diego. Hard to read UCD’s overall strength based on the variety of performances. But 2 of the games count as FCS wins towards the magical 7 qualifying wins needed. Jake Maier is averaging over 300 yards per game and leads a very effective offense.
Signature Win/Loss
They kept with NDSU right until the end at Fargo. Very few teams have done this in the last few years. A slightly altered pass in the fourth quarter and UCD comes out the winner. They have a defense in addition to an offense.
What Scares Me
No one has gone into Fargo in the recent regular season past and done as well offensively and defensively as UCD last week.
Playoff Path (odds?)
While not a lock, it would take a pretty big crash for UCD not to make the playoffs. Their schedule is moderately hard with UM, MSU and Weber all on it. Plus, UCD gets NO bye week as their bye week is the last week of the season. This is good for playoff prep but hard on the players for the full season. I rate them as a #1-High.
Weber State
Non-Conference Status
While WSU is only 1-2, their losses have been to FBS teams and their defense has been outstanding. Giving up only 19 points in two FBS losses and allowing FCS Cal Poly 24 points is a testament to how hard it is to score on them. Weber had an early bye and takes on UNI this week before playing 8 straight conference games. Weber and UNI are the 8th and 9th toughest scoring defenses in the FCS (not including the Ivy League schools who have only played one game)
Signature Win/Loss
Giving up only two field goals to San Diego State shows how stingy the Wildcats defense is this year.
What Scares Me
We don’t play Weber this year but they easily could be a seated team making it harder for MSU to win the conference or get a seed.
Obscure Stat
WSU has only 101 yards of penalties this year.
Playoff Path (odds?)
Weber’s path to a playoff berth seems straightforward and relatively strong. No MSU or EWU on the schedule, if Weber beats UNI this weekend, they only need 5 wins to qualify and I don’t see three teams beating WSU. I put them in the high probability group. Good chance for a bye as well.
Montana
Non-Conference Status
No matter what I say about the Griz; it will likely be disputed or disregarded. It is fair to say that they look strong early and their offense is clearly clicking on all cylinders. There competition has been less than stellar but it is all FCS and FBS. Sneed has their offense in the top 15% in the entire FCS.
Signature Win/Loss
Beating South Dakota at home was a great start to the season but USD does not look particularly strong – having only beat Northern Colorado 14-6 and losing to Houston Baptist in a close game.
What Scares Me
Hauck is pissed off as are all the Griz. Four in a row they will never live down.
Obscure Stat
Griz have the 15th best 3rd down conversion defense in the country. Not all offense over in la-la land.
Playoff Path (odds?)
I think the Griz will be in the thick of it by end of the season. There is a question of endurance later in the season raised by Brian McLaughlin of Hero Sports based on their late season swoon’s of the last couple of years. I would not count on it this year as much as I hate to say it, Bobby Hauck is a good coach and he knows what he has to do with the culture. I would like to see both teams at say 9-2 going into the final game with winner taking a seed and the loser having to play after Thanksgiving. I rate the Griz playoff chances as High.
EWU
Non-Conference Status
My goodness. Maybe this is the year we should play EWU. No Div. I wins in four games. 1-3 start. Looking awful on defense. Are they really that bad? Could they make a comeback in Big Sky play? Clearly this is the surprise start to the season.
Signature Win/Loss
Losing to Idaho. Is Idaho that good? Is Petrino a great quarterback – well maybe not.
What Scares Me
Barriere is very good and they can tear up people on offense. A little defense improvement and they could be very difficult to beat; get 7 wins and knock someone else out of the playoffs.
Obscure Stat
EWU has given up 40.5 points a game! Even Div. II Linwood scored 31 points!
Playoff Path (odds?)
Ok, I am rating them medium high (#2) which is a risk. Eastern has to win 7 out of 8 BSC games. The reason I am willing to take that rating risk because the BSC schedule is way soft – No MSU; No USD; No Weber. They do play the Griz but Eastern seems to own the Grizzlies the last few years (4-1 over last 6 years).
North Dakota
Non-Conference Status
While humbled by their upriver rival at NDSU, UND did beat Sam Houston State and Drake to put a decent 2-1 record. They did just squeak by SHS who does not look like a powerhouse. A late game fumble (think Cat-Griz) saved the day for UND.
Signature Win/Loss
Thought they would be more competitive against NDSU. Still owned by their bigger brother. The game was not close.
What Scares Me
Just about everything. Defense is 12th in the country against all FCS teams. They only gave up 118 yards passing to Sam Houston State (Granted, who does not look like the Sam Houston of the early 2000’s).
Obscure Stat
Even though Grand Forks is north of Fargo (NDSU), it is down river as the Red River of the North flows from Fargo to Grand Forks and North into Canada.
Playoff Path (odds?)
I think the odds are way better than anyone recognizes. So far UND has a ferocious D and holding their own. One difficulty is they play only 11 games. A second is they are not truly in a conference (their last year playing a Big Sky schedule) but the committee is going to count their position as a Big Sky team. Given the Big Sky will get NO MORE than 5 playoff positions (see last year’s long thread and note above on why this is true), UND could easily snag the final position with a 7-4 or 8-3 record. They do play four tough games but a 5-3 record in conference is easily possible. You heard it here first. I rate them a #2 – Medium High, mostly because of their defense. They will be tested immediately against EWU and UCD.
Northern Arizona
Non-Conference Status
2-2 with FBS loss and DivII win. Their defense did not look great against Illinois State but the offense certainly can generate points. With one of the best QB’s in the nation; not just the Big Sky; NAU could have a breakout year if they can keep the opponents to less than say 35 points.
Signature Win/Loss
Scoring 41 points against Arizona even if some of the points came in the 4th quarter after the game was decided. Very few FCS teams have scored that many points on a Power 5 team.
What Scares Me
Cookus is really, really good and the Cats secondary is not very fast.
Obscure Stat
Cookus has the second most passing yards in the FCS after Eastern’s Barriere.
Playoff Path (odds?)
I struggled where to put NAU. Given the right games when they are at their best, they could be 5-3 or even 6-2. The Cat game on Saturday will be a defining moment for both teams. I rate NAU as 2- Medium High. It will depend on whether EWU bounces back and what happens this Saturday. NAU wins Saturday and they are obviously in the hunt.
Idaho
Non-Conference Status
2-2 with a DII win and two FBS losses. They were predicted to be 8th in the Big Sky and so far that might be their position. Offense and Defense are middle of the road and even after beating EWU last week, the team does not have a clear identity. But it does appear they may be a threat to do more than win 3 or 4 games.
Signature Win/Loss
Penn State scored the second most points in school history. Idaho looked like a DII team in that game. Could not do anything right. Well it seemed to be a bad omen, Idaho has bounced back going 2-1 since that game
What Scares Me
Who is this team? The one that lost to Penn State by 79-7? Or the one that scored 28 points against Eastern in the first half?
Obscure Stat
Petrino has thrown for over 720 yards so far this fall 8th best in the Big Sky.
Playoff Path (odds?)
The Cats don’t play Idaho this year and perhaps that is a good thing. I rate Idaho as a sleeper team right now with the possibility of disrupting the race. Odds of making the playoffs are in category 3 – Medium. This is primarily due to their playing two FBS schools and one DII. Idaho needs 6 wins in conference to qualify and I do not see that happening. Even at 6 wins, they will be 8-4 with one non-counter.
Sac State
Non-Conference Status
2-2 with a Div. II win and putting up 50 points on Northern Colorado in a non-conference game. Their QB, Thomson has thrown for at least 230 yards in every game and has 12th highest total in the country
Signature Win/Loss
Holding Arizona State to only 19 points and only losing by 13 is a pretty strong showing for a team that did not win a conference game last year.
What Scares Me
They can put points on the board and challenge the defense.
Obscure Stat
The Big Sky has FIVE of the top 16 quarterbacks in passing yards per game including Thomson of Sac State.
Playoff Path (odds?)
Sac State has a murders row schedule – EWU, MSU, UM followed by Weber, NAU, and UCD. They play every top team. Unless their new coach is a miracle worker, they are still on track for a NO GO playoff year and rated as 3- Medium Low – Only because they passing of Thomson might result in more wins than anyone predicted. I do think they will win 2 or 3 games this year.
Cal Poly
Non-Conference Status
Only 3 games under their belt so far as Cal Poly only plays an 11 game season. They are 1-1 against FCS teams with a win against Pioneer League San Diego. Defense is one of the worst in FCS at 117.
Signature Win/Loss
Their loss to Weber State, while looking like a rout, was actually close most of the game. Late in the third, CP was only down by one score. They let the game get away but scoring 24 on Weber is more than FBS San Diego State or Nevada could muster against the stout WSU defense.
What Scares Me
They have a running game that when goes right, they can score some points. They have none done well last couple of years so they may be ready. We really don’t know anything about them what with only one FCS game under the belt.
Obscure Stat
Cal Poly was fourth in the nation in rushing last year at 331 yards per game. Still only were 5-6 due to their porous defense.
Playoff Path (odds?)
I rate them 3rd Tier. Possible good season could happen this year – maybe 4-4 in conference play. Cats play them in second game so run against run offense. Fairly early in the season we will know about Cal Poly.
Portland State
Non-Conference Status
2-2 but it is a very weak 2-2. The two wins are against a Div. II school and a NAIA school and even though PSU ran up the score, it is difficult to say they have a strong offense. Their quarterback, Alexander, can throw for some yards.
Signature Win/Loss-NONE
What Scares Me
Nothing - Don’t play them and they are not a threat.
Playoff Path (odds?)
PSU seem to have handed in a no dance schedule with their non-conference slate of 2 FBS and 2 Division II. These four games are losses or non-counters towards the magic 7 wins, PSU would need to win 7 of 8 conference games. This is not going to happen. PSU plays a soft schedule avoiding MSU and Weber and UND. However, their last four games are NAU, Griz, UCD and EWU. Beating three out of four is not realistic. Category 4 – No Go.
Idaho State
Non-Conference Status
An odd schedule. They are 1-2 with a game against BYU mid-season. Played a D II and had a solid win; play Utah and got skunked 31-0; played UNI and lost a close one 13-6. ISU is one of four we don’t play this year so not much concern of having the down game we did last year.
Signature Win/Loss
The UNI loss was a close throughout and ISU could have pulled out a victory. This game was on the road
What Scares Me
They might hand easy wins to EWU, Griz and Weber. Let’s hope they don’t pack it in and have a few good games against at least one of the top teams. Usually you can count on the Bengals for one upset a year.
Playoff Path (odds?)
ISU is another school that decided they did not need to go to the playoffs this year. Last year they came within one late season win from qualifying. This year, their non-conference schedule is 2 FBS and 1 Div. II schools. While they are 1-2 right now, they have no FCS wins and they will lose to BYU later in the season. So they would need 7 conference wins to qualify. Just not going to happen. I rate them as #4 – NO GO. But could be a sleeper to upset some teams.
Southern Utah
Non-Conference Status
1-3 with an FBS loss and two FCS losses. They played a very tough schedule with losses to UNI and South Dakota State that were not even close. SUU is giving up nearly 40 points a game so the defense is suspect.
Signature Win/Loss
Beat Stephen F. Austin in Cedar City. But the game was close and SFA looks like they are having a down year (0-4) and lost to Div. II team.
What Scares Me
They have schooled us in totally unexpected fashions in past games. SUU seems to have some sort spell over the Cats. SUU has won the last three games against the Cats. Do I believe in omens? Almost always a close game
Playoff Path (odds?)
Last year SUU was 1-10. But the year before they were 9-2 and made the playoffs. SUU has a history of being up and down. Thought this would be up year but does not appear to be the case. I rate them bottom of the league, not much different than the original polls. Not seeing anything to change their placement.
Northern Colorado
Non-Conference Status: - ok, we are just going to gloss over this and hope it does not come back to bite me later in the season. 0-4; no signature win; and rated as the worst team in the Big Sky, RPI of 247 out of 255. Can’t say much more. No chance of making the playoffs. Might eek out a surprise win but 0-8 looks doable.
This Week’s Game
The weather is the biggest factor. It is going to hurt attendance. Even though sold out, I would be surprised if we have 15,000 at the game – might be less if Saturday starts with rain and then changes to snow. I finding lots of people saying they are not going – don’t want to sit in freezing rain in September. Secondly, Cookus and his passing game is a tough fit with our defense. Their offense is real and they will score their share of points – maybe 25 or 30.
The weather may work in our favor as it lends itself to a ground game. Our offense needs to be clicking and we need some of the injured running backs in the game (think Anderson, Ifanse, Jones). Coach Choate always holds his injury list close to the chest so I have no idea of their status.
After this week, we will return to our regular process of looking at last week’s games and next week’s games. It should be an exciting season.
Path to the Playoffs
DATE...........GAME........Result Needed................Record......FCS....... Comments
Week 1.........TTU..........Big Loss.........................0-1.........0-0........ Well, I got the easy one right.
Week 2.........SEMO.........Narrow Win…..................1-1.........1-0........Does it count as narrow if tied at half-time?
Week 3.........WIU..........Loss (MISSED)..................2-1.........2-0........Everyone said not pretty. Missed this one.
Week 4.........Norfolk St...Big Win.........................3-1.........3-0........Got two easy ones right so far this year
Week 5.........NAU..........Win..............................4-1.........4-0
Week 6.........Cal Poly......Win…............................5-1.........5-0
Week 7 .........Sac State....Win…...........................6-1.........6-0
Week 8.........Open...........................................6-1.........6-0
Week 9.........NDU...........Coin Flip/Loss................6-2.........6-1
Week 10.......SUU............Big Win........................7-2.........7-1
Week 11.......NCU...........Big Win.........................8-2.........8-1
Week 12.......UCD............Loss............................8-3.........8-2
Week 13.......UM.............Big Win........................9-3.........9-2
GO Cats.