Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:24 am
Pathway to Playoffs 2019 Edition
Welcome to the 2nd edition of “Pathway to Playoffs” post. The weekly analysis of how the Cats can get to the playoffs that is well-researched (I read the Chronicle, Craig Haley and ESPN web site); insider-fed (I have been in the stadium when it is empty) and prophetic (I called 10 out of 11 games right last year).
The Ground Rules
A few reminders of the ground rules. In my weekly posts, my intent is not to delve into how good or bad the Cats are (well maybe just a little); not to dissect last week’s games on the nuances of what players did what and certainly not to call attention to the coaches and their strengths and weaknesses. Plenty of you do a great job in these areas. My goal is to look at the road to the playoffs, determine how last week’s and next week’s games including Big Sky games and ranked teams and competing conference games affect out likelihood of getting into the playoffs and where we might be seeded.
I take the long haul view. Granted, there is serious risk with this approach by starting before the very first game. The Cats might flame out early and the post dies of internal bleeding. Or I could be way off base in my analysis and observations and only irrelevant dribble comes out of my mouth. Last year, I think I did pretty well – both in accurately layout out the path to the playoffs (fairly simple task where I missed only one game out of 11) and in analyzing the events and games that had to break our way to get there (much more difficult and frankly in the last two weeks, I laid out a scenario of a combination of wins and losses by various teams to get the Cats in good standing and it played out pretty darn close including calling 6 out of 7 games that had to break our way on the last day). I will take my chances that I can do as well this year. I welcome your comments and analysis as well. Remember, stay away from the individual game performance and look at how teams are doing relative to the Cats and how our victories/losses are stacking up to the committee of voters – because unless we win the conference title – that is all that matters.
A few Captain Obvious Observations:
• We probably need to win 2 of 4 non-conference games.
• We have to protect home field and lose no more than one conference game at home
• We have to win at least 2 road games, likely 3.
• Last year I said the Big Sky does not get more than four bids every year and would not get more than four. That proved true. This year it is possible the Big Sky can get five bids due to the strength of our teams starting out (4 or 5 rated). I still say we need to finish no worse than 4th in the conference.
• Key players have to stay healthy.
• Our secondary must play better and our D-line provide more pressure against passing teams like SEMS, NAU, Sac State and UCD.
• We have to beat the Griz.
Given the Cats are ranked 8th (too high), 14th, 14th, 15th, and 18th in the five major polls, respect is not an issue this year and an 8-3 FCS record (8-4 full record) will clearly earn a playoff bid and quite likely even a 7-4 FCS record will get us in but we don’t want to think about that option.
I have toyed with either a 9-2 or 8-3 FCS record for the Cats as the most likely path. It is a not any easy decision. The pre-conference season is tough. It is conceivable the Cats could be 1-3 and in a big hole. I suspect they will be 2-2. The conference schedule is much more generous as many have pointed out because we don’t play Eastern or Weber and play the Griz at home. Still there are 3 or 4 tough conference games. And we all know, the big kicker is there is always a surprise team in the Big Sky. Every year a team rises to the top that was not even in the top 5 the previous year – one year it was PSU, another year SUU (seems like every other year they are good); another year Sac State. No one knows who the sleeper will be this year. I really want to say the Cats can finish with a 9-2 FCS record. However, there are so many unknowns, I am going to call the UND game a toss up and go with a final FCS record of 8-3 with the Cats just missing out on the 8th seed and a bye.
DATE...........GAME........Result Needed................Record......FCS Record
Week 1.........TTU..........Big Loss.........................1-0........0-0
Week 2.........SEMO.........Narrow Win....................1-1........1-0
Week 3.........WIU..........Loss.............................1-2........1-1
Week 4.........Norfolk St...Big Win.........................2-2........2-1
Week 5.........NAU..........Win..............................3-2........3-1
Week 6.........Cal Poly......Win…............................4-2........4-1
Week 7 .........Sac State....Win…...........................5-2........5-1
Week 8.........Open...........................................5-2........5-1
Week 9.........NDU...........Coin Flip/Loss................5-3........5-2
Week 10.......SUU............Big Win........................6-3........6-2
Week 11.......NCU...........Big Win.........................7-3........7-2
Week 12.......UCD............Loss............................7-4........7-3
Week 13.......UM.............Big Win........................8-4........8-3
Analysis for the Week – How to use the 12th game
This is the odd year where Thanksgiving falls late in November and backing up the Saturdays allows for 12 games for FCS teams. The calendar has to have 14 Saturdays between Labor day weekend (even if the Saturday of Labor Day weekend is in August) and the last Saturday in November (which leaves the first playoff game Thanksgiving weekend). It happens in 2019, 2024, and 2025 in the next 10 years. So what should a coach of a playoff potential FCS school do with that extra game?
Options Include:
• Big Money Game with Power 5 Conference
• Money Game with FBS non-power 5 team
• Extra Game against FSC Powerhouse
• Extra Game against low-end FSC Team
• Extra Home Game against DII Team
What Cats have done with the 12th Game
While it might look like the Texas Tech big money game is our 12th game, history says otherwise. During the Ash years, Cats played a DII school every year regardless of 11 or 12 games, so the DII game was never the extra game. And we played a FBS school 8 out of 11 years. One 12-game year we had seven home games so the extra was a home game against a Power FCS team and the other year it was an away game against a power FCS team. We lost the extra games both years plus we lost the FBS game those years so our pre-conference record was 2-2. This year we can make the assumption our 12th game is a power FCS team – WIU. (Power meaning the team comes from top fiveFCS conference) or the SEMO game since the WIU is part of a home and home series with the MVFC.
Overall, the 12th game seems to be a detriment because we always started with two losses (one FBS and one FCS) the last three 12-game seasons. The argument could be made the FBS loss does not get considered into the playoff picture (unless we win) but moving into conference play at 2-2 is mentally not as advantageous as being 2-1. But there is always conversation FCS might go to 12 games for every season. Until next week,
Go Cats!!
Welcome to the 2nd edition of “Pathway to Playoffs” post. The weekly analysis of how the Cats can get to the playoffs that is well-researched (I read the Chronicle, Craig Haley and ESPN web site); insider-fed (I have been in the stadium when it is empty) and prophetic (I called 10 out of 11 games right last year).
The Ground Rules
A few reminders of the ground rules. In my weekly posts, my intent is not to delve into how good or bad the Cats are (well maybe just a little); not to dissect last week’s games on the nuances of what players did what and certainly not to call attention to the coaches and their strengths and weaknesses. Plenty of you do a great job in these areas. My goal is to look at the road to the playoffs, determine how last week’s and next week’s games including Big Sky games and ranked teams and competing conference games affect out likelihood of getting into the playoffs and where we might be seeded.
I take the long haul view. Granted, there is serious risk with this approach by starting before the very first game. The Cats might flame out early and the post dies of internal bleeding. Or I could be way off base in my analysis and observations and only irrelevant dribble comes out of my mouth. Last year, I think I did pretty well – both in accurately layout out the path to the playoffs (fairly simple task where I missed only one game out of 11) and in analyzing the events and games that had to break our way to get there (much more difficult and frankly in the last two weeks, I laid out a scenario of a combination of wins and losses by various teams to get the Cats in good standing and it played out pretty darn close including calling 6 out of 7 games that had to break our way on the last day). I will take my chances that I can do as well this year. I welcome your comments and analysis as well. Remember, stay away from the individual game performance and look at how teams are doing relative to the Cats and how our victories/losses are stacking up to the committee of voters – because unless we win the conference title – that is all that matters.
A few Captain Obvious Observations:
• We probably need to win 2 of 4 non-conference games.
• We have to protect home field and lose no more than one conference game at home
• We have to win at least 2 road games, likely 3.
• Last year I said the Big Sky does not get more than four bids every year and would not get more than four. That proved true. This year it is possible the Big Sky can get five bids due to the strength of our teams starting out (4 or 5 rated). I still say we need to finish no worse than 4th in the conference.
• Key players have to stay healthy.
• Our secondary must play better and our D-line provide more pressure against passing teams like SEMS, NAU, Sac State and UCD.
• We have to beat the Griz.
Given the Cats are ranked 8th (too high), 14th, 14th, 15th, and 18th in the five major polls, respect is not an issue this year and an 8-3 FCS record (8-4 full record) will clearly earn a playoff bid and quite likely even a 7-4 FCS record will get us in but we don’t want to think about that option.
I have toyed with either a 9-2 or 8-3 FCS record for the Cats as the most likely path. It is a not any easy decision. The pre-conference season is tough. It is conceivable the Cats could be 1-3 and in a big hole. I suspect they will be 2-2. The conference schedule is much more generous as many have pointed out because we don’t play Eastern or Weber and play the Griz at home. Still there are 3 or 4 tough conference games. And we all know, the big kicker is there is always a surprise team in the Big Sky. Every year a team rises to the top that was not even in the top 5 the previous year – one year it was PSU, another year SUU (seems like every other year they are good); another year Sac State. No one knows who the sleeper will be this year. I really want to say the Cats can finish with a 9-2 FCS record. However, there are so many unknowns, I am going to call the UND game a toss up and go with a final FCS record of 8-3 with the Cats just missing out on the 8th seed and a bye.
DATE...........GAME........Result Needed................Record......FCS Record
Week 1.........TTU..........Big Loss.........................1-0........0-0
Week 2.........SEMO.........Narrow Win....................1-1........1-0
Week 3.........WIU..........Loss.............................1-2........1-1
Week 4.........Norfolk St...Big Win.........................2-2........2-1
Week 5.........NAU..........Win..............................3-2........3-1
Week 6.........Cal Poly......Win…............................4-2........4-1
Week 7 .........Sac State....Win…...........................5-2........5-1
Week 8.........Open...........................................5-2........5-1
Week 9.........NDU...........Coin Flip/Loss................5-3........5-2
Week 10.......SUU............Big Win........................6-3........6-2
Week 11.......NCU...........Big Win.........................7-3........7-2
Week 12.......UCD............Loss............................7-4........7-3
Week 13.......UM.............Big Win........................8-4........8-3
Analysis for the Week – How to use the 12th game
This is the odd year where Thanksgiving falls late in November and backing up the Saturdays allows for 12 games for FCS teams. The calendar has to have 14 Saturdays between Labor day weekend (even if the Saturday of Labor Day weekend is in August) and the last Saturday in November (which leaves the first playoff game Thanksgiving weekend). It happens in 2019, 2024, and 2025 in the next 10 years. So what should a coach of a playoff potential FCS school do with that extra game?
Options Include:
• Big Money Game with Power 5 Conference
• Money Game with FBS non-power 5 team
• Extra Game against FSC Powerhouse
• Extra Game against low-end FSC Team
• Extra Home Game against DII Team
What Cats have done with the 12th Game
While it might look like the Texas Tech big money game is our 12th game, history says otherwise. During the Ash years, Cats played a DII school every year regardless of 11 or 12 games, so the DII game was never the extra game. And we played a FBS school 8 out of 11 years. One 12-game year we had seven home games so the extra was a home game against a Power FCS team and the other year it was an away game against a power FCS team. We lost the extra games both years plus we lost the FBS game those years so our pre-conference record was 2-2. This year we can make the assumption our 12th game is a power FCS team – WIU. (Power meaning the team comes from top fiveFCS conference) or the SEMO game since the WIU is part of a home and home series with the MVFC.
Overall, the 12th game seems to be a detriment because we always started with two losses (one FBS and one FCS) the last three 12-game seasons. The argument could be made the FBS loss does not get considered into the playoff picture (unless we win) but moving into conference play at 2-2 is mentally not as advantageous as being 2-1. But there is always conversation FCS might go to 12 games for every season. Until next week,
Go Cats!!