Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

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TomCat88
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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by TomCat88 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:00 am

91catAlum wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:16 am
Catprint wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:12 pm
bobcatfan123 wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:55 am
Thank you for putting all that together Catprint. I know how busy life is and appreciate you taking the time to do that. In thinking about these next few weeks should we be rooting for UM to beat Weber. I know it's one week at a time and we have nothing to do with any sort of outcome. . . but can't help but speculate how everything will play out. It would be nice to beat UM when they are a #3 ranked team as opposed to #10 (or whatever ranking the loss would put them at). It is the time of year when your ranking actually does matter. If we beat a highly ranked griz team we can still get seed and a few home games.

Have mixed emotions as I have a really hard time rooting for the griz in any sort of situation. . . even if it could benefit the cats.
There are definitely four sides to this coin! I will be looking at it in depth later in the week but here is short version

1) UM beats Weber; Cats beat UCD
a. This moves UM to #3 or #4. When we beat them, it would insure we get a seed. Griz could still get one.
b. However, it will drop the BSC from any team getting #2 seed so hurts the conference in getting to Frisco and it likely gives the Griz a seed regardless of Cat/Griz as I don’t think they will drop from #3 to #9 or further.

2) UM beats Weber; Cats lose to UCD
a. UM moves to #3/#4; Cats drop to 15 or even lower. Now we have to win to get in the playoffs.
b. Assuming a Bobcat win, Griz may still get a seed. But now no team gets a #2 or #3 seed.

3) UM loses to Weber; Cats wins at UCD.
a. Weber is lock for #2/#3 seed. Good for big sky.
b. Cats playing UM will likely be for a seed – Only the winner gets the bye. Both teams get a playoff spot.

4) UM loses to Weber; Cats lose at UCD
a. Weber is lock for #2/#3 seed. Good for big sky.
b. Cats playing for their playoff spot. Griz don't get a seed with Cat/Griz loss.

Unfortunately, the Griz play before the Bobcat games starts at 5:00 PM so their game is over before ours begin. If Weber and Sac had gone down last weekend (both eeked out last minute victories), I would definitely be cheering for the Griz as it allows a four-way tie for first. As it stands, I think we have to count on the Cats winning both games so cheering for the Griz against Weber gives us a much higher chance of getting a bye and a seed when we beat the Griz. I can cheer for the Griz when it helps the Cats – apparently some fans can’t and that makes no sense. Our dislike for the Griz has to end when their victory helps the Bobcats!
I don't understand the logic of how it helps the Cats if the griz win.

If the Cats win out, they will get a seed regardless of what happens in the Weber/um game.
But even if the Cats win out, we will not get a 2 or 3 seed with a 9-3 record. We'll be somewhere between 5-8 seed regardless of the griz Weber outcome.
And anybody that's in that 5-8 range will travel in the quarters, assuming the seeds hold at home.

So I don't think it really matters.
MSU would have a better chance at a higher seed if it beats UM, if UM beats Weber. Obviously, you don’t want to be the 8 seed. Assuming NDSU is the 1.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by CelticCat » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:13 am

8 seed is 1000 times better than un-seeded. No seed means we get a home game in the first round, then travel to a seeded team for round 2. At least we'd see NDSU in the quarters if we are an 8 seed (assuming we win our 2nd round game) rather than in the 2nd round. An extra week to get healthy and prepare never hurts either.

If we can nab the 7th or even the 6th seed, then we are in business. 7th likely heads to JMU, but 6th would likely head to Weber.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by Hawks86 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:17 am

Jake: [stands] Well then I guess there's only one thing left to do.
Roger: What's that?
Jake: Win the whole f$$king thing.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by BleedingBLue » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:31 am

Hawks86 wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:17 am
Jake: [stands] Well then I guess there's only one thing left to do.
Roger: What's that?
Jake: Win the whole f$$king thing.
=D^ =D^ :lol: :lol: well played!



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by RockyBearCat » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:17 pm

My thoughts are that if Griz beat Weber, they jump to #2 or #3. Griz lose to Weber they are right by Cats around 8-10. It helps the Cats to beat a #2 vs a #10. Beating UCD and Griz in last two weeks could sneak Cats up to a #4 seed if Griz beat Weber.



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by Catsrgrood » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:28 pm

RockyBearCat wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:17 pm
My thoughts are that if Griz beat Weber, they jump to #2 or #3. Griz lose to Weber they are right by Cats around 8-10. It helps the Cats to beat a #2 vs a #10. Beating UCD and Griz in last two weeks could sneak Cats up to a #4 seed if Griz beat Weber.
A lot of possibilities, but assuming NDSU and JMU don’t lose, griz would jump to 3 with a win over Weber.
Cats would likely be between 8-10 with a win against UC Davis.

If the griz lose to Weber, I agree they’ll probably be around 7-8.

So a win against a 9-2 griz team likely gets the Cats between 5-7. I don’t think a top 4 seed is possible assuming nothing else crazy happens at the top.

In the whole scheme of things, I don’t know that the Cats beating the griz at #3 or #7-8 really matters all that much. I think the Cats ceiling is a 5-8 seed if they go 2-0 these next two weeks.



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by Catprint » Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:30 pm

Catsrgrood wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:28 pm
RockyBearCat wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:17 pm
My thoughts are that if Griz beat Weber, they jump to #2 or #3. Griz lose to Weber they are right by Cats around 8-10. It helps the Cats to beat a #2 vs a #10. Beating UCD and Griz in last two weeks could sneak Cats up to a #4 seed if Griz beat Weber.
A lot of possibilities, but assuming NDSU and JMU don’t lose, griz would jump to 3 with a win over Weber.
Cats would likely be between 8-10 with a win against UC Davis.

If the griz lose to Weber, I agree they’ll probably be around 7-8.

So a win against a 9-2 griz team likely gets the Cats between 5-7. I don’t think a top 4 seed is possible assuming nothing else crazy happens at the top.

In the whole scheme of things, I don’t know that the Cats beating the griz at #3 or #7-8 really matters all that much. I think the Cats ceiling is a 5-8 seed if they go 2-0 these next two weeks.
Generally agree with all this logic except....
1) We want to be in the best position if something crazy happens which it almost always does... like UNI loses to SDSU and then SDSU loses to South Dakota or Sac State loses to UC Davis in last game or something else...
2) I agree #1 and #2 are out of the question. However, a #3-6 is possible.
3) We could get a #3 or #4 IF Cats win out; Griz beat Weber; Sac loses to UC Davis; UNI loses, etc. That course of events is not probable but it is possible.
4) I have to disagree with Celtic Cat about #8 seed is 1000 times better than unseeded. Generally better but not always. For example, CollegeSportsMadness has an unseeded Cats playing Nicholls in Bozeman (winnable); then going to Weber (winnable but less so) then we would meet a #6 Montana in the Quarterfinals (winnable). Three winnable games and possible a trip to the semis at JMU. Where as a #8 seed gets us a bye (good) then possibly a very tough opponent at home (such as Griz again (fully allowed) or an unseeded UNI. Then if that game is won, it is on to NDSU (NOT winnable). So the seed gets us a very difficult first round and unwinnable second round.

All that said, I would rather win out and take our chances with a seed but why not have the deck stacked in our favor as best as possible If Griz lose to Weber and Cats win out, we are looking at #7 or #8. Griz beat Weber at least gives us a chance for a better seed.

Full 2nd installment post in a few hours as long as I don't fall asleep first.



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by Catprint » Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:48 am

Second Installment of WEEK 12

I missed my Pathway to the Playoffs summary so here it is. Right on track with early season prediction

Pathway to the Playoffs



Polls

I have decided these last two weeks to present an aggregated Poll of Big Sky teams. In hopes of seeing how a more honest representation looks with varying eyes. It is well established that aggregates of polls give a more accurate position whether it is football or politics. For now, I am only concerned with Big Sky teams with a chance of getting a playoff berth. At this stage, not a lot of difference in the polls. WE definitely see that some writers see Sac State’s near loss to NAU to be worthy of demoting them while no one thought the same of Weber’s near loss to UND. MSU sits at 10 or 11 in every poll. Hero Sports has Cats back as #10 most likely to win the national championship. Kinda like a poll rating but more based on what chances they have in the playoffs.



Review of Cat’s playoff chances:

First, easy part. I want the Cats to win. I believe they can win. But the next two games are anything but easy. A playoff spot is NOT a lock. Even though we have 7 D1 wins, will be at least 7-4 FCS, are ranked #10 two weeks before the end of the season; are on Hero Sports Top 15 to win a championship and seven wins got the Cats in the playoffs last year, the bird won’t fly this year. In fact, two consecutive losses will almost certainly result in us NOT getting in the playoffs. Most writers tend to say things not based in reality like “MSU may need one more win to lock up a playoff berth.”

1) Auto bid – Effectively Eliminated

2) Playoff Seed – Win two and a seed is a certainty. Lose to UCD, Beat Griz, it is remotely possible but lots of teams (Ill St, SDSU, Furman, Sac St) would have to lose one or both of their last two. Unlikely.

3) Playoff first round game – Win 1; we are in. Lose both and 7-5 will be a highly questionable record and likely will result in NOT making the playoffs. How is that?
.....a. In Cat’s favor
...........i. 7 D1 wins
...........ii. Beat a top 25 team – SEMO
..........iii. 7-4 got us in last year.
....b. Not in Cat’s favor
...........i. Big Sky will have three solid teams ahead of us – WSU, Sac and UM.
...........ii. Eastern will likely have done what I worried about all year (won out) and they will be 6-4 FCS and 6-2 in the conference with a 4 game win streak; a solid fourth place in the conference Likely won’t get them a playoff berth.
..........iii. Cats will have a two game losing streak.
..........iv. Cats lost to three ranked teams
...........v. The 6th place team in the BSC standings will NOT get a playoff spot (We will be behind Eastern and UC Davis.) It has not happened in recent memory and unlikely to happen this year. It happened in the CAA last year BUT every team 1st -6th got in the playoffs and the last 4 teams were tied for 3rd.
..........vi. Finally, see later in the post but there are likely to be 12 to 14 different 7-win teams vying for at most 3, maybe only 2 at-large playoff spots after the 8-4 or better teams get the first 12 at-large spots.

MORE LATER ON THIS TOPIC

CATS vs UC DAVIS
This is a playoff game for UC Davis. They are in consideration by the slightest of threads. Lose and they are out. Win and they have a slim chance of getting a “Last 3 In” selection. How do the two teams stack up? On a pure Big Sky playing field, neither of us has won any big games. All of Davis’s wins are against lower tier teams – PSU, SUU and Cal Poly. All of MSU’s wins are against teams lower in the standings – SUU, UNC, Cal Poly and NAU. Davis has lost to UM, UND and Weber. MSU has lost to Sac State and UND. In that regard, seems comparable. Davis has been blow out twice, the Cats once.

Cats on Offense
Davis is 83rd in Rushing Defense and 9th in the Big Sky. Not as bad as Northern Colorado who are in a league of their own but Davis gives up some yards. Their passing D seems worse – 10th in the Big Sky and 91st overall. However, the numbers are not that significant in terms of yards per game. Davis hopes to stop a team simply by scoring more points. Cats should be able to run with their revived playbook but nothing like what we saw at UNC last week. I would think we need a bigger mix of passing plays in this game. Seems unlikely we are going to run over UC Davis like we did in our last two games. A healthy Jonsen will be a great help.

Cats on Defense
UC Davis has the 6th best passing offense in the country but only the 42nd highest scoring offense. This is partially due to an abysmal running game – 91st in the nation. Cat’s defense against the run is great – 3rd best in conference and 28th in the nation but not sure how that is going to help us in this game. UC Davis may try to establish a running game early to throw us off balance but it would be a surprise. Part of their problem has been an even turnover margin. Davis has been in quite a few close games. Maier can light it and I believe our secondary will be severely tested. He is going to throw 35-40 times per game. Davis does not give up many sacks. MSU is leading the league in scoring defense when only looking at conference games.


Other Big Sky Games
Weber at UM
o This is kinda for the conference championship. If Griz win and lose to the Cats, then Sac State and Weber tie and Weber gets the championship. I believe Weber is beatable and the Griz might be able to do it. From a conference only games statistics viewpoint, this game matches up well. Griz are 3rd in scoring defense and 2nd in scoring offense; Weber is 2nd in defense; 4th in offense. In terms of total yards, Griz are 3rd and Weber 8th. So I give an offensive edge to Griz. However, it flips on defense. As I stated in an earlier post, I am rooting for the Griz in order to help the Cats get a playoff seed.

UNC at UND
o What can we hope for? That UNC was so humiliated last week and UND is so exhausted that someone Northern Colo. Pulls off a win? We can hope but I don’t see it happening.

Eastern Washington at CalPoly
o Eastern should run away with this game. It puts them on the cusp of a 7 win season. Could they sneak into the playoffs with a 6-4 FCS record? I don’t think so. Last year it would have worked. This year there are too many teams at 7-4 or 7-5 FCS who are on the bubble. I think it would be a travesty if EWU made the playoffs and another eight to ten 7-4 FCS record teams did not. But stranger things have happened.

Sac State at Idaho
o Sac state should take care of business but after almost losing to NAU last week, are they suspect? Maybe Idaho can pull one out for the Gipper! It could happen.. just not likely to happen.

ALL OTHER GAMES - What do we want to happen and what will likely happen?

As we look towards this weekend and playoff positioning one thing is for certain – nothing is for certain. That said, lots of the playoff brackets or articles on the web are not taking a close look at the teams and their potential records. While some claim to state “If the playoffs were today”, with only two games left in the season, that serves no real purpose and tends to bend reality like light near a black hole. It is better to look at where teams stand now and where they are likely to stand after two weeks and what is most probable.

What I have done here is to take every team that can be 7-5 or better by the end of the season. I have broken out the teams by conference with the top tier belonging to conferences where a 7-5 or 7-4 record (D1 wins) will get a team considered (CAA, MVFC, Southern, Southland). The second tier are conferences where an 8-4 record (D1 wins) are needed for an at large position (Big South, NEC and OVC). Finally, I do the Big Sky separately making an educated guess about how many at-large spots will be left for Big Sky teams.

In the chart here, I have predicted a total of 60 games over two weeks. I am only looking at games with playoff implications. My predictions are based on won-loss records and trends. I acknowledge there are games that if the outcome is different it will switch which team is on the bubble, which one is “IN” and which ones are eliminated. However, in very few cases does it move another team into the “At-large” position and not knock one out of that position. So I believe my relative numbers of bubble teams and available at-large positions holds true regardless of how some of the 50/50 games pan out. The CAA and Southland are the most difficult to accurately predict and clearly I am doing some educated guesses.







OBSERVATIONS
1) Most conferences have one (or two) teams that are clearly at the top and if one team, it will get the auto bid (MVFC, CAA) or if two teams, one will get the Auto-bid and the other an at-large (Big South; OVC, Southern).
2) I projected the first twelve at-large spots to be taken by teams with an 8-4 or better record.
3) There could be lots of 9-3 or better teams. I project 16 or 17 teams.
4) The scenario I have laid out leaves 3 at-large spots for the Big Sky and another 2 or 3 spots for a combination of conferences for bubble teams.
5) It is possible but difficult to believe that any significant (more than 1 or 2) number of current “at-large” teams are going to lose both of their final games and drop to the bubble.
6) There will be at least a dozen 7-4 or 7-5 teams fawning for the last 2 or 3 at-large positions.
7) NO 6-win team is going to get a playoff spot this year (like UIW did last year.)
8 ) Almost impossible to believe any 7 win with only 6 D1 wins teams (like EWU) will get an at-large bid.
9) At least eight (8) and as many as ten (10) teams with 7 D1 wins will be left out of the playoffs. This is one of the highest number in recent memory (only 5 seven win teams were left out last year and one of those was from the NEC).
10) The NEC could be a HUGE problem. If Central Conn. does not win out, there could be a 2 or 3-way tie for the title. If Robert Morris or Duquesne wins the auto-bid, then Central Conn gets in as an at-large and steals a sport from MVFC or Big Sky.
11) Even though many writers do not have Kennesaw State in the playoffs, I cannot imagine a scenario where the committee does not give them a spot in the playoffs at 10-2 (8-2 FCS).

So why do all this? Because we have the opposite scenario of last year where the Cats had to win their last three to be on the bubble and then get LOTS of help which we got about 75% of the games to break our way the last two weeks. This year we need the help if we lose the last two games. I don’t know which team will show up and I understand many people think if we lose the last two games we don’t deserve to be in the playoffs. But hey, I want the Cats in the playoffs if only for the experience and the majority (AND one more home game). SO this final analysis, looks that that dismal possibility of the Cats losing their last two games (albeit both as close games).

Cats Lose Two Games

Here is the worst case scenario for the Cats if they lose twice:
1) Cats lose both games
2) EWU wins out (easy assumption)
3) UND wins out against UNC and SUU.
4) UC Davis wins out (beat Cats AND Sac State). This is less likely but possible if Thomson is still out as QB
5) Griz Beat Weber
The net result would be Weber and UM would tie for the title. The auto bid and a seed to the Griz and a seed to Weber. Sac State would be a solid “IN” at 8-4. Cats would be in sixth place in the Big Sky at 7-5 with a 4-4 conference record and would not get in. UC Davis might get in with two wins but almost for sure UND gets a playoff bid.

Here is the best case scenario with two losses (Games that I consider possible to go in a way to help Cats).
1) UC Davis loses to Sac State
2) EWU loses to Portland State
3) UND loses one of two games
4) Southern Ill. loses to NDSU and does poorly against WIU.
5) Stony Brook loses to Delaware
6) Citadel loses to Chattanooga and loses to Wofford
7) New Hampshire loses both games – At least one
8 ) Nicholls loses to SELA
9) McNeese State loses to Lamar and Nicholls
10) UT Martin loses one or two games
11) Cent Conn wins out and eliminates Robert Morris and Duquesne from stealing a bid.

What is interesting is if Griz lose to Weber, Cats lose to UC Davis, Cats beat the Griz and Davis wins out, Cats will be 8-4 and I believe will get a first round playoff game. However, we will be in 5th place (UC Davis wins the tiebreaker by virtue of beating Sac State) so we would get in the playoffs even though two teams with better conference records do not (UC Davis and EWU). Griz get in even though a sixth place finish (So maybe my original assumption earlier in my post about a sixth place team NOT getting a playoff spot is not correct. I don’t see how an 8-4 Griz team that is currently ranked 5th does not get a playoff bid. Under this scenario, 4 teams plus UND get in the playoffs.



Seeding Chart

Not sure my chart adds much to the discussion but I do find a little bit of hubris about the listing by most writers. Montana has a very tough schedule. They could easily lose one or both games. UNI and South Dakota State play each other and the loser will almost certainly not get a seed. Illinois State has a reasonably tough game against YSU that could knock them from a seed. The eight seeds listed by most sportswriters are NOT a lock. I think NDSU, JMU and Weber are all locks based on their schedule and strength of victories. I think everyone else could lose one game badly or lose two games. But what the heck…



GO CATS!



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by Prodigal Cat » Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:28 am

Great stuff as always but I have spot of opposition. Under the Weber vs UM game you state you are rooting for UM to help the Cats get a seed. I don't think it matters.

Say Weber loses to the griz you have to think they will beat Idaho State the following week. ISU has lost their last 4 games being blown out in all of them including to SUU and NCU, the 2 supposed worst teams in the conference. That would mean they (Weber) would finish 9-3 (7-1 in conference). They would still get a seed.
UM then loses the Brawl the next week and finish 9-3 (6-2 in conference).
Lets say Sac State wins out @UI and vs UCD for this argument 9-3 (7-1 conference)
MSU needs to win out to finish 9-3 (6-2 conference)

If the Cats lose either of these last 2 games the point is moot but what I am trying to say is they control their own destiny. Win out and we finish with the same record as the griz and we would own the tiebreaker having just beat them. Griz would most likely be the team losing out on the seed even with a win this weekend. The only other way the seeds for the BSC get shook up is if Sac Sate loses their last 2 because they own the tiebreaker vs both the Cats and the Griz (not likely so we'll ignore it), or they give the BSC 4 seeds also unlikely. So I wont cheer for the griz as i'd rather bathe in razer blades and lemon juice.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by catatac » Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:39 am

Prodigal Cat wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:28 am
Great stuff as always but I have spot of opposition. Under the Weber vs UM game you state you are rooting for UM to help the Cats get a seed. I don't think it matters.

Say Weber loses to the griz you have to think they will beat Idaho State the following week. ISU has lost their last 4 games being blown out in all of them including to SUU and NCU, the 2 supposed worst teams in the conference. That would mean they (Weber) would finish 9-3 (7-1 in conference). They would still get a seed.
UM then loses the Brawl the next week and finish 9-3 (6-2 in conference).
Lets say Sac State wins out @UI and vs UCD for this argument 9-3 (7-1 conference)
MSU needs to win out to finish 9-3 (6-2 conference)

If the Cats lose either of these last 2 games the point is moot but what I am trying to say is they control their own destiny. Win out and we finish with the same record as the griz and we would own the tiebreaker having just beat them. Griz would most likely be the team losing out on the seed even with a win this weekend. The only other way the seeds for the BSC get shook up is if Sac Sate loses their last 2 because they own the tiebreaker vs both the Cats and the Griz (not likely so we'll ignore it), or they give the BSC 4 seeds also unlikely. So I wont cheer for the griz as i'd rather bathe in razer blades and lemon juice.
Totally agree, and that's what I was thinking too. Cats win out and I believe are a lock for a seed 100% whereas Griz would have to play a first round game. Curious to see if CatPrint disagrees.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by iaafan » Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:46 am

I don’t think MSU gets a seed at 9-3.

I think it’ll be:
1. Ndsu
2. Jmu
3. Weber
4. Sac
5. SDSU
6. CAU
7. Nova
8. Illinois St.

I got MSU bracketed with 6) CAU and 3) Weber. Tough, but doable. Probably play a 4-5 MVFC team or a 2-3 Southland team in first round.



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by Catsrgrood » Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:31 am

Love the breakdown as usual Catprint. That’s a lot of analysis!

A lot is going to happen these last two weeks, but we should get a decent amount of clarity after this weekend.

To put it simply, I just see it as we go 2-0 we get a seed (probably 7-8).
We go 1-1 we’re playing at home in the first round.
We go 0-2 and there is maybe a 5-10% chance we’re in the playoffs.



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by BleedingBLue » Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:41 am

iaafan wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:46 am
I don’t think MSU gets a seed at 9-3.

I think it’ll be:
1. Ndsu
2. Jmu
3. Weber
4. Sac
5. SDSU
6. CAU
7. Nova
8. Illinois St.

I got MSU bracketed with 6) CAU and 3) Weber. Tough, but doable. Probably play a 4-5 MVFC team or a 2-3 Southland team in first round.
All of your seeds look good and possible except Central Arkansas in my opinion. After the beating they took against SELA they sit in a tie for 1st in the Southland. If Nicholls and SELA win this weekend, the winner between the 2 on the final weekend will be in a tie for 1st W/CAU (assuming they win out) and SHSU (assuming they win out). CAU lost to both Nicholls and SELA so they lose the tiebreaker there, but they slipped by SHSU. Unless they get the auto bid, which they still can if things go exactly right, I don't see them getting a seed. Especially if the committee takes into account how poorly they have played in games against bad and mediocre teams. They don't have a convincing win against anyone this year, good or bad. And they have been beaten soundly by 2 of the other teams in 1st (SELA and Nicholls). It took 2nd half come backs to beat Abilene Christian (5-5, 4-4) and NW State (2-8, 2-5). They won both games 31-30.



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by CelticCat » Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:40 am

iaafan wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:46 am
I don’t think MSU gets a seed at 9-3.

I think it’ll be:
1. Ndsu
2. Jmu
3. Weber
4. Sac
5. SDSU
6. CAU
7. Nova
8. Illinois St.

I got MSU bracketed with 6) CAU and 3) Weber. Tough, but doable. Probably play a 4-5 MVFC team or a 2-3 Southland team in first round.
Both CAU and Nova are ranked lower than the Cats right now, all sitting at 7-3. I imagine if all are 9-3, the Cats will likely be ranked about 7th or so, so I don't know how MSU doesn't get a seed in that scenario. A 7th ranked Big Sky team that's 9-2 against the FCS gets a seed IMO.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by coochorama42 » Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:43 am

I just pointed this out on a different post, but the only possibility of a 9-2 FCS Big Sky team not getting a seed is if UM beats Weber but loses to MSU and MSU, Weber, and Sac State all win their remaining games. That would have two one FCS-loss Big Sky teams (Weber and Sac State) and two two-FCS loss Big Sky teams (MSU and UM). I doubt we'd get four seeds, so UM would be the odd team out in that scenario (head-to-head loss vs. MSU).



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by Cledus » Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:44 am

CelticCat wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:40 am
iaafan wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:46 am
I don’t think MSU gets a seed at 9-3.

I think it’ll be:
1. Ndsu
2. Jmu
3. Weber
4. Sac
5. SDSU
6. CAU
7. Nova
8. Illinois St.

I got MSU bracketed with 6) CAU and 3) Weber. Tough, but doable. Probably play a 4-5 MVFC team or a 2-3 Southland team in first round.
Both CAU and Nova are ranked lower than the Cats right now, all sitting at 7-3. I imagine if all are 9-3, the Cats will likely be ranked about 7th or so, so I don't know how MSU doesn't get a seed in that scenario. A 7th ranked Big Sky team that's 9-2 against the FCS gets a seed IMO.
Which would include wins over SEMO and scum.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by catgrad05 » Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:40 pm

Here’s my prediction based off of no analytical data whatsoever ever

griz get two straight losses and Cats get two straight wins.
Both schools get into playoffs with Cats getting a bye and griz hosting because money talks in first round.

griz host SEMO in first round, griz lose vs SEMO which means SEMO comes back to Bozeman and Cats win I’m second round.

Cats then travel to Weber and win a close game.

JMU stumbles in playoffs so Cats host semifinal game before heading to NC against NDSU. Cats beat NDSU.......some think NDSU’s run all started with the upset vs Ash’s ranked team in Bozeman so Cats get payback and NDSU starts to come back down to earth



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by technoCat » Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:29 pm

catgrad05 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:40 pm
Here’s my prediction based off of no analytical data whatsoever ever

griz get two straight losses and Cats get two straight wins.
Both schools get into playoffs with Cats getting a bye and griz hosting because money talks in first round.

griz host SEMO in first round, griz lose vs SEMO which means SEMO comes back to Bozeman and Cats win I’m second round.

Cats then travel to Weber and win a close game.

JMU stumbles in playoffs so Cats host semifinal game before heading to NC against NDSU. Cats beat NDSU.......some think NDSU’s run all started with the upset vs Ash’s ranked team in Bozeman so Cats get payback and NDSU starts to come back down to earth
As an engineer, I appreciate the symmetry!


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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by coochorama42 » Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:41 pm

Looking at the tea leaves, I think MSU is currently 10th in the eyes of FCS bracket makers. The loser of SDSU/UNI won't be a seeded team above a 9-2 FCS MSU team nor would UM in this instance. I think - barring any REAL upsets - NDSU, Weber, JMU, Sac State, Illinois State, and the winner of UNI/SDSU will be ranked above the Cats if we win out. Furman still has a tough game against Wofford, so I'm 50/50 if they survive. That leaves MSU with a max seed of #7 barring major upsets.

I also believe Weber earns the #2 seed if they win out. Their body of work would be significantly better than JMU. If MSU runs the table, I believe they get paired with Weber, not NDSU.



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Re: Path to the Playoffs - 2019 Edition

Post by Darth Yoda » Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:54 pm

coochorama42 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:41 pm
Looking at the tea leaves, I think MSU is currently 10th in the eyes of FCS bracket makers. The loser of SDSU/UNI won't be a seeded team above a 9-2 FCS MSU team nor would UM in this instance. I think - barring any REAL upsets - NDSU, Weber, JMU, Sac State, Illinois State, and the winner of UNI/SDSU will be ranked above the Cats if we win out. Furman still has a tough game against Wofford, so I'm 50/50 if they survive. That leaves MSU with a max seed of #7 barring major upsets.

I also believe Weber earns the #2 seed if they win out. Their body of work would be significantly better than JMU. If MSU runs the table, I believe they get paired with Weber, not NDSU.
If we win 1 of our next 2, I would fine with lining up with Weber in the 16 of the choices. At least there's familiarity, easier logistics, and the game planning would be straight forward. Any of the MV road trips would be brutal, and I'm hoping for a draw like last year in the first round.

If we win 2 of 2, then I still like lining up with Weber in the quarters versus a MV road trip. None of this is intended to be disrespectful to Weber and I'm not trying to say the MV isn't beatable, but it's more along the the old adage about the 'devil you know versus the devil you don't'.



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