Top 2 path

[Prodigal Cat]

We only need what, 10 pollsters to figure it out. We are only like 13 votes behind the Griz.

We could beat ISU by 40 and the Griz could squeak by Cal Poly and I would put money down that nothing would change in the polls. Tom is right.

I mean I'm as sold on FCS' weird UM bias as anyone.

But I think our smoking NAU closed the gap considerably. If we start to look like we're going to roll through the schedule anything like last year and those other guys keep every game interesting like they like to do, we're going to flip.

The only reason we fell behind earlier was on style points vs Mercyhurst.

The other factor was that nearly every team in the top 10 struggled. MSU was about the only one to win going away so a lot of voters probably just kept the status quo. If it was just the griz struggling there might have been a bigger microscope.

[Bobcat Sig]

We only need what, 10 pollsters to figure it out. We are only like 13 votes behind the Griz.

We could beat ISU by 40 and the Griz could squeak by Cal Poly and I would put money down that nothing would change in the polls. Tom is right.

I mean I'm as sold on FCS' weird UM bias as anyone.

But I think our smoking NAU closed the gap considerably. If we start to look like we're going to roll through the schedule anything like last year and those other guys keep every game interesting like they like to do, we're going to flip.

The only reason we fell behind earlier was on style points vs Mercyhurst.

Again, I don't think the pollsters are that savvy. They likely saw um win again and thought; "Oh, that's how it should be because reasons. Move those griz up!" And no more thought went into it. Probably

[coloradocat]

We only need what, 10 pollsters to figure it out. We are only like 13 votes behind the Griz.

We could beat ISU by 40 and the Griz could squeak by Cal Poly and I would put money down that nothing would change in the polls. Tom is right.

I mean I'm as sold on FCS' weird UM bias as anyone.

But I think our smoking NAU closed the gap considerably. If we start to look like we're going to roll through the schedule anything like last year and those other guys keep every game interesting like they like to do, we're going to flip.

The only reason we fell behind earlier was on style points vs Mercyhurst.

Again, I don't think the pollsters are that savvy. They likely saw um win again and thought; "Oh, that's how it should be because reasons. Move those griz up!" And no more thought went into it. Probably

Hey, any team fresh off a 2001 national championship deserves to be highly ranked.

[Bobcat Sig]

We only need what, 10 pollsters to figure it out. We are only like 13 votes behind the Griz.

We could beat ISU by 40 and the Griz could squeak by Cal Poly and I would put money down that nothing would change in the polls. Tom is right.

I mean I'm as sold on FCS' weird UM bias as anyone.

But I think our smoking NAU closed the gap considerably. If we start to look like we're going to roll through the schedule anything like last year and those other guys keep every game interesting like they like to do, we're going to flip.

The only reason we fell behind earlier was on style points vs Mercyhurst.

Again, I don't think the pollsters are that savvy. They likely saw um win again and thought; "Oh, that's how it should be because reasons. Move those griz up!" And no more thought went into it. Probably

Hey, any team fresh off a 2001 national championship deserves to be highly ranked.

And... nailed it

[catgrad05]

We only need what, 10 pollsters to figure it out. We are only like 13 votes behind the Griz.

We could beat ISU by 40 and the Griz could squeak by Cal Poly and I would put money down that nothing would change in the polls. Tom is right.

I mean I'm as sold on FCS' weird UM bias as anyone.

But I think our smoking NAU closed the gap considerably. If we start to look like we're going to roll through the schedule anything like last year and those other guys keep every game interesting like they like to do, we're going to flip.

The only reason we fell behind earlier was on style points vs Mercyhurst.

Again, I don't think the pollsters are that savvy. They likely saw um win again and thought; "Oh, that's how it should be because reasons. Move those griz up!" And no more thought went into it. Probably

Hey, any team fresh off a 2001 national championship deserves to be highly ranked.

And... nailed it

I was so disappointed that they made it to the national championship the year after we did, but then we went again………

[kwcat]

Top 10 release.

https://herosports.com/fcs-playoff-comm ... ings-bzbz/

[MSU01]

Top 10 release.

https://herosports.com/fcs-playoff-comm ... ings-bzbz/

Hooray, finally we'll be able to discuss rankings that actually matter.

[Catsrgrood]

I think we're already seeing the reality in the national polls - we got leapfrogged by the Griz after beating the brakes off of EWU and the Griz beat Idaho at home, yet the inverse did not happen after we smoked the #13 team on the road and the Griz squeaked by Idaho State.

We only have 2 ranked opponents left so it's not out of the possibility we fall further during the next 4 game stertch even if we go 4-0 vs ISU, CP, UNC, Weber.

The good news is we should have two top 10 opponents at the very end to earn our way into the top 4.

And that's the issue, frustratingly so. By most measures, we're a better team, and yet, the griz continue to dine out on their hype. It seems like a reasoned pollster would see their squeaker against ISU and rank them accordingly. Only they didn't. Frustrating.

3 weeks ago when the Cats were 4 and gris were 5, it was by 1 total point.

We beat the brakes off a bad EWU team and that’s the week the gris beat #8 Idaho. They leap frogged us and got 14 more votes, so a swing of 15 votes from the previous week.

Then last week the margin was the same, being 14 votes behind them.

So for 3 weeks the votes have been really close.

I’d like to think that beating ISU soundly the week after ISU coulda/shoulda beat the gris will move the needle a bit, but I won’t hold my breathe on that.

Maybe if the gris struggle and have a close-ish win against CP and we win by 3+ scores, maybe… but I won’t bet on it.

It will be interesting to see the committees thoughts next week.

[kwcat]

I think we're already seeing the reality in the national polls - we got leapfrogged by the Griz after beating the brakes off of EWU and the Griz beat Idaho at home, yet the inverse did not happen after we smoked the #13 team on the road and the Griz squeaked by Idaho State.

We only have 2 ranked opponents left so it's not out of the possibility we fall further during the next 4 game stertch even if we go 4-0 vs ISU, CP, UNC, Weber.

The good news is we should have two top 10 opponents at the very end to earn our way into the top 4.

And that's the issue, frustratingly so. By most measures, we're a better team, and yet, the griz continue to dine out on their hype. It seems like a reasoned pollster would see their squeaker against ISU and rank them accordingly. Only they didn't. Frustrating.

3 weeks ago when the Cats were 4 and gris were 5, it was by 1 total point.

We beat the brakes off a bad EWU team and that’s the week the gris beat #8 Idaho. They leap frogged us and got 14 more votes, so a swing of 15 votes from the previous week.

Then last week the margin was the same, being 14 votes behind them.

So for 3 weeks the votes have been really close.

I’d like to think that beating ISU soundly the week after ISU coulda/shoulda beat the gris will move the needle a bit, but I won’t hold my breathe on that.

Maybe if the gris struggle and have a close-ish win against CP and we win by 3+ scores, maybe… but I won’t bet on it.

It will be interesting to see the committees thoughts next week.

I think it’s been posted on here before, but how many votes are there by the press?

[Catsrgrood]

I think we're already seeing the reality in the national polls - we got leapfrogged by the Griz after beating the brakes off of EWU and the Griz beat Idaho at home, yet the inverse did not happen after we smoked the #13 team on the road and the Griz squeaked by Idaho State.

We only have 2 ranked opponents left so it's not out of the possibility we fall further during the next 4 game stertch even if we go 4-0 vs ISU, CP, UNC, Weber.

The good news is we should have two top 10 opponents at the very end to earn our way into the top 4.

And that's the issue, frustratingly so. By most measures, we're a better team, and yet, the griz continue to dine out on their hype. It seems like a reasoned pollster would see their squeaker against ISU and rank them accordingly. Only they didn't. Frustrating.

3 weeks ago when the Cats were 4 and gris were 5, it was by 1 total point.

We beat the brakes off a bad EWU team and that’s the week the gris beat #8 Idaho. They leap frogged us and got 14 more votes, so a swing of 15 votes from the previous week.

Then last week the margin was the same, being 14 votes behind them.

So for 3 weeks the votes have been really close.

I’d like to think that beating ISU soundly the week after ISU coulda/shoulda beat the gris will move the needle a bit, but I won’t hold my breathe on that.

Maybe if the gris struggle and have a close-ish win against CP and we win by 3+ scores, maybe… but I won’t bet on it.

It will be interesting to see the committees thoughts next week.

I think it’s been posted on here before, but how many votes are there by the press?

56 total voters

[MSUBobcat04]

I disagree. If SDSU loses twice and we win out, we would absolutely jump them in the seeds.

Wrong. The head to head would give the nod to the Jacks all day. NO WAY a 10-2 SDSU is ranked below a 10-2 MSU.

Wrong. 10-1 MSU > 10-2 SDSU. The committee only counts FBS games if you win them.

You beat me to it. I agree, 2 FCS losses should put SDSU behind the 1 FCS loss Cats. Will it? who knows.

The teams would be in the same tier for seeds and the number 1 thing they would consider is head to head. It would trump everything else. If you are saying they would ignore that because of 1 extra loss you are mistaken.

Dude, no way a 10-2 FCS SDSU would be seeded higher than a 10-1 cat team. What are you smoking?

a Cat team with ZERO FCS losses was seeded behind a NDSU team with one FCS loss in '22. It has actually happened. I don't smoke.

Context matters. NDSU's 1 loss in 2022 was a 2pt loss to the #1 seed. Since the #1 and 2 seeds are a different animal than the #3 and 4 (first band has homefield til Frisco), I also think there was some effort by the committee to avoid the NDSU-SDSU rematch until Frisco (and they got their wish).

If SDSU were to somehow lose TWO games (both of which would have to be in-conference), they would likely be 3rd in the standings in their own conference, theoretically behind undefeated NDSU and 1 conference loss UND. No way the 3rd place MVFC gets a 2-seed.

[MSUBobcat04]

I disagree. If SDSU loses twice and we win out, we would absolutely jump them in the seeds.

Wrong. The head to head would give the nod to the Jacks all day. NO WAY a 10-2 SDSU is ranked below a 10-2 MSU.

Wrong. 10-1 MSU > 10-2 SDSU. The committee only counts FBS games if you win them.

You beat me to it. I agree, 2 FCS losses should put SDSU behind the 1 FCS loss Cats. Will it? who knows.

The teams would be in the same tier for seeds and the number 1 thing they would consider is head to head. It would trump everything else. If you are saying they would ignore that because of 1 extra loss you are mistaken.

At the end of the season NDSU, SDSU, MSU, the griz, and Tarleton (if they make it undefeated) will be in the same tier. If one of those teams has the only loss outside the tier (which SDSU would if they lose 2 games) they would drop to the bottom of the tier.

I’m kinda surprised by how many posters here are convinced that the committee is going to ignore a loss on the field when it comes to seeding.

I'm surprised that you're convinced the committee would ignore that 2nd FCS loss and would award it to them based on an early season overtime win. For the Rabbits to get to an unlikely 2nd loss, very good chance it is to UND. MSU>UM>UND>SDSU. That loss would also come on THE LAST WEEKEND. How could they stay as a #2 seed following a loss to not-#1?? It's one thing to stay above a team with 1 less loss when that loss came to the #1. It's a wholly different argument when you have 2 losses in your own conference and ended the year losing.

[Prodigal Cat]

I disagree. If SDSU loses twice and we win out, we would absolutely jump them in the seeds.

Wrong. The head to head would give the nod to the Jacks all day. NO WAY a 10-2 SDSU is ranked below a 10-2 MSU.

Wrong. 10-1 MSU > 10-2 SDSU. The committee only counts FBS games if you win them.

You beat me to it. I agree, 2 FCS losses should put SDSU behind the 1 FCS loss Cats. Will it? who knows.

The teams would be in the same tier for seeds and the number 1 thing they would consider is head to head. It would trump everything else. If you are saying they would ignore that because of 1 extra loss you are mistaken.

Dude, no way a 10-2 FCS SDSU would be seeded higher than a 10-1 cat team. What are you smoking?

a Cat team with ZERO FCS losses was seeded behind a NDSU team with one FCS loss in '22. It has actually happened. I don't smoke.

Context matters. NDSU's 1 loss in 2022 was a 2pt loss to the #1 seed. Since the #1 and 2 seeds are a different animal than the #3 and 4 (first band has homefield til Frisco), I also think there was some effort by the committee to avoid the NDSU-SDSU rematch until Frisco (and they got their wish).

If SDSU were to somehow lose TWO games (both of which would have to be in-conference), they would likely be 3rd in the standings in their own conference, theoretically behind undefeated NDSU and 1 conference loss UND. No way the 3rd place MVFC gets a 2-seed.

If you believe what the committee says about their process for selecting seeds this is completely wrong. They vote based on resumes, not potential matchups, at least that's what they say the process is. SOOOOO

Did NDSU lose an FCS game in 2022 = yes and they lost it at home
Did NDSU lose an FBS game in 2022 = yes
Did MSU lose an FBS game in 2022 = yes
Did MSU lose an FCS game in 2022 = no, they were undefeated in the FCS

I'm not sure what else to say. The 2022 Montana State Bobcats were seeded below a team the lost an FCS game at home despite being undefeated. Further Sac St was undefeated vs the FCS and had an FBS win to finish 11-0, one win better than 10-1 SDSU and also had beaten a common opponent (UNI) by a larger margin.

Every time in the last handful of years that the BSC winner has finished tied or 1 win/loss better than an xDSU's, the MVFC team was seeded higher. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Yet somehow a bunch of posters here thinks it'll be different this time. They are right, this time the committee will have a head to head to factor in. One where the Cats LOST. Last season the Cats were undefeated and were the 3 until SDSU picked up a 2nd loss in the marker and didn't get the 1 till the Bison lost their 2nd in the final game. It wasn't until the Cats had 2 extra D1 wins over them before they jumped them.

Lets look at resume's for the Jacks vs the Cats if the Jacks lost the Marker and to ILST.
Cats will be 10-2, 10-1 vs the FCS, with 3 ranked wins
Jacks will be 10-2, 10-2 vs the FCS with 5 ranked wins AND the head to head win vs the Cats. More ranked wins, plays in the MVFC, and the head to head. Winner despite the extra loss.

So keep telling me how i'm wrong but not bringing any sort of historical data. I keep showing the instances that prove what I'm saying is true and you all keep saying "no way" with zero evidence to back it up.

[Prodigal Cat]

Now after I've said that I do think that if NDSU loses the Marker by a TD or more and loses another game the Cats would jump them the last day of the year by beating the Griz. NDSU would have a SOS less than the Cats and can't get as many ranked wins due their OOC schedule being a cakewalk. GO SIU or better yet UND.

[catatac]

I think we're already seeing the reality in the national polls - we got leapfrogged by the Griz after beating the brakes off of EWU and the Griz beat Idaho at home, yet the inverse did not happen after we smoked the #13 team on the road and the Griz squeaked by Idaho State.

We only have 2 ranked opponents left so it's not out of the possibility we fall further during the next 4 game stertch even if we go 4-0 vs ISU, CP, UNC, Weber.

The good news is we should have two top 10 opponents at the very end to earn our way into the top 4.

And that's the issue, frustratingly so. By most measures, we're a better team, and yet, the griz continue to dine out on their hype. It seems like a reasoned pollster would see their squeaker against ISU and rank them accordingly. Only they didn't. Frustrating.

3 weeks ago when the Cats were 4 and gris were 5, it was by 1 total point.

We beat the brakes off a bad EWU team and that’s the week the gris beat #8 Idaho. They leap frogged us and got 14 more votes, so a swing of 15 votes from the previous week.

Then last week the margin was the same, being 14 votes behind them.

So for 3 weeks the votes have been really close.

I’d like to think that beating ISU soundly the week after ISU coulda/shoulda beat the gris will move the needle a bit, but I won’t hold my breathe on that.

Maybe if the gris struggle and have a close-ish win against CP and we win by 3+ scores, maybe… but I won’t bet on it.

It will be interesting to see the committees thoughts next week.

Apparently you guys don't understand how much weight "DOLA" and RTD" carries.....

[Catprint]

So throw my two cents at 2:00 AM after uploading my "Path to the Playoffs" post.
1) Polls and Pollsters don't matter. Not used/looked at/considered by the committee. Just fun to look at and talk about but irrelevant to seeds.
2) # of Ranked wins; Head to Head; Strength of Schedule are three of many data points allowed to be considered - but a very important three.
3) History matters. People remember. The committee is made of people not robots. The SOS of the MVFC and BSC is substantially based on historical data.
4) Ultimately, when the data points are close, the committee members can use the eye test; trends; past history. and until the Cats/other BSC teams can beat NDSU/SDSU consistently; we will be at a human bias disadvantage. Life is not and never was fair or equitable.
5) All that said, I believe the committee members do their absolute best and it is an extremely difficult job. Last year the Top 8 seeds went chalk all the way through the playoffs until the very last game. Damn! Pretty good job of seeding when looked at objectively.

Here is small part of my post about seeds:

This week I am putting together a first stab at the Top 8 seeds and how they will look at the end of the season. Not based on where the teams are
now but where I see them in 6 more weeks. Sure, it is just a WAG but has some basis in observation and analysis on how the committee works.


1) NDSU: 12-0 is quite possible. So far, can be challenged but not broken. Two down (USD, ISU); four left (SIU, SDSU, UND and YSU). This week goes a long way to #1. I see no upset.
2) Tarleton State: This might be a stretch but I think SDSU falters and Tarleton could be 12-0 as well and snag #2. Do they deserve it? No but just how it goes.
3) MSU: Putting them here for now. Means I really believe they will beat the Gris in West Bonner.
4) Gris: 11-1 will give them a top 4 seed.
5) SDSU: Not looking as sturdy as I hoped. A loss to NDSU and Illinois State or UND is possible.
6) Southern Illinois: Just my feeling they could end up with a loss to NDSU and go 10-2. They don’t play SDSU, so big break for them.
7) Monmouth: Weak CAA gives them solid chance to go 11-1 and undefeated in the FCS. Even then, I don’t see them in top 4.
8 ) UC Davis: If they beat NAU, otherwise maybe Tennessee Tech slips in here.


All others still in the conversation….

50-50
Ill. State: held their own against NDSU for nearly a half. Need some quality wins and generate more offense. Defense only goes so far in the MVFC. Super tough schedule.

Tennessee Tech: FSC scoring leader. Plays piss poor schedule (119th currently). Even if 12-0, they would be questionable for top 8 seed.

Idaho: Needs some defense; lots of defense. Hard to see them as good as they were last year. I am skeptical they nab a Top 8 but still early. I think they are more likely 10-14 seed.

Outliers
Lehigh – Now that would be a hoot. Holy Cross has gotten a Top 8 seed once so suppose a Patriot League team could do it again. They are 6-0 and beat a good Yale team last week. Not sure they will be underdog in any remaining games. But an SOS of nearly 90 and no ranked wins is going to make it difficult for the committee to give them a Top 8 seed even at 12-0.

UND – Might sneak into the conversation. Brutal schedule though makes me think just not realistic. But their defense is outstanding. The Alerus Center is one of the best home fields in the FCS.

EDITED SAT AM:
Worse case scenario for the Cats (More in another post). SIU beats NDSU today and wins out; NDSU loses today and then wins out; SDSU loses the Marker and wins out (SDSU and SIU don't play); Tarleton State wins out; Cats win out. RESULT: SIU, NDSU and SDSU all have one FCS loss and fight it out for Top 4. Tarleton State gets #1 or #2. Really hard for Cats to get a Top 4. Not because of Oregon loss (does not count). But because of # of D-1 Wins which is a specific Data Point. Tarleton State 12 D-1 wins; SIU, NDSU, SDSU - 11 D-1 Wins; MSU - 10 D-1 Wins and the head-to-head loss to SDSU. # of D-1 wins is huge.

[TomCat88]

I'm assuming you saying SDSU doesn't look sturdy due to its 35-30 win over YSU. SDSU outscored 35-10 after falling behind 14-0. They allowed a meaningless TD with under a minute to play. YSU (3-2) only lost 41-24 to Michigan St and was down just 17-10 at halftime. Spartans only outgained them by about 100 yards.

[tetoncat]

@Catprint for you #2, do you feel it is then ranked or EOY ranked. Either sceario contradict #1 a little as Polls do mater for that and lead to the theory coaches will vote for teams on their schedules. I've always hated teams getting credit for a week 1 ranked win and their opponent ends up 5-7 for year.

[Catprint]

@Catprint for you #2, do you feel it is then ranked or EOY ranked. Either sceario contradict #1 a little as Polls do mater for that and lead to the theory coaches will vote for teams on their schedules. I've always hated teams getting credit for a week 1 ranked win and their opponent ends up 5-7 for year.

Couple of points - Coaches poll doesn't count any different than the Media Poll. However, it is not perfectly clear what the committed uses for "ranked wins" but it appears to be a combination of rating systems. (They used to use the NCAA's SRS but stopped using that 2 years ago.) They use Massey (which we can view) and then two ESPN power indexes and a unpublished KPI. Best that I can find, the ESPN power ratings are unpublished. I can't find them. If someone can, that would be great to know.

In addition, your point about current ranked wins early in the season is correct. EOY ranked wins are clearly more important than Current Ranked wins for 2 reasons. 1) The committee values November results higher than September (Which could in theory help the Cats in the worst case scenario I laid out). 2) Current ranked wins early in the season may have no value. For example, UIW was ranked as high as #3 in preseason and early polls. Wins over UIW appear to be totally devalued because they might end up 6-6 at best and not ranked in Top 25 in any poll or ranking system (Massey has them 27th currently and receiving no votes in the Stats poll.) This will hurt NAU if they are on the bubble as a home win against UIW may actually be worse on the resume than a road win at say Cal Poly or Northern Colorado.

[Catprint]

I'm assuming you saying SDSU doesn't look sturdy due to its 35-30 win over YSU. SDSU outscored 35-10 after falling behind 14-0. They allowed a meaningless TD with under a minute to play. YSU (3-2) only lost 41-24 to Michigan St and was down just 17-10 at halftime. Spartans only outgained them by about 100 yards.

In my power ratings, I have them as 7th best team. I don't see SDSU as dominant as in the past. Yes, the YSU game was not a dominant performance by SDSU. Nor do I see their MSU victory as dominant or strong as some see it. They played poorly against Drake. All that said though, they have to lose in order to drop. Poor wins is not likely to affect their final seed by much. I think they can lose the Marker and maybe to Ill. State. or at UND. But I would not place money on that result. Just the scenario the Cats need to have a chance at a top 2 seed, much less a top 4 seed.