Cataholic wrote: ↑Mon Nov 17, 2025 5:11 pm
MrGoodKat wrote: ↑Mon Nov 17, 2025 2:29 pm
The truly comparable sample of opponents are conference games.
Cats' BSC opponents have gone a collective 20-29 in league play.
The Griz BSC opponents have gone a collective 18-31 in league play.
Very similar SOS. The slight advantage towards the Cats is balanced by the fact that UM has played one more road game.
Both undefeated in BSC play.
I think this comparison is misleading. Of the top 5 teams in conference, you have MSU, UM, UCD, NAU and maybe Sac State with their controversial win this weekend.
MSU plays UM, NAU AND UCD.
UM plays MSU and Sac State (who is questionable if they belong in this group)
Add in UM played the worst team in the league with PSU. MSU did not play PSU this year.
I'm taking the judgment calls out of it, removing OOC play, and just looking at the BSC records of BSC teams.
-MSU played UCD (5-2), while UM played Sac State (5-2); I tend to believe that UCD is better, but it's somewhat balanced out because UCD was a home game, while SAC was a road game. But the records are basically identical.
-MSU played three teams with 4-3 conference records (NAU, EW, and ISU), while UM played two (EW and ISU). For UM, the NAU game was replaced by ID (2-5), which is where the two game discrepancy comes in. Again, you can sort of balance out that difference by pointing out that UM has played one more road game to this point.
-Both teams filled out their schedules with games against the dregs, each playing three 1-6 teams: WEB, CP, and UNC for the Cats and WEB, PSU, and CP for the Griz.
I'm sympathetic to arguments that MSU had a tougher road in-conference because I do believe that UCD is one of the top 3 teams in the BSC and that there is a tier drop after them; I also think playing @NAU is a tough game under any circumstances.
But even with those arguments considered, I don't think any unbiased observer can deny that the in-conference SOS is at least pretty close, if not exactly the same. So I don't see the value in arguing about strength of schedule. I'm more interested in looking at how both teams have actually performed in this very comparable sample of games. It turns out, MSU has been the better team basically across the board.