2025 Path to the Playoffs WEEK 11 –PART 2 - MVFC 7 SPOTS? NO WAY; BEST O - BEST D; BIG SKY PREDICTIONS

[Prodigal Cat]

Fully agree it comes down to the Brawl. I think my analysis was spot on in terms of Tarleton and SDSU needing to lose. It was a shocker that NAU lost and that is not great for the Cats. That will likely drop NAU out of the polls and remove our only "Ranked win". Everyone wants to point out Tarleton has no ranked wins and now a ranked loss. That is the same resume as the Cats. I don't happen to think Tarleton is a horrible team. They are going to get a Top 8 seed if they win out. SDSU, on the other hand, looks adrift. They easily could lose one or two more. Again, that is not great for the Cats resume because a "quality loss" to the #2 team is way more impressive committee than a loss to only a Top 15 team. Yes, it was at the beginning of the season but it will still matter. Where this all will make a difference is if Cats lose the Brawl in a close game. Getting #3 or #4 seed is far from certain as we might have only 1 ranked win (UC Davis) and 2 ranked losses (#2 Gris and #10 SDSU(?)) In addition, it will be interesting how the committee rewards a 11-1 Tennessee Tech (they play FBS Kentucky in 2nd to last game) and a 12-0 Lehigh. Both have terrible SOS's but they are already in the Top 10. Plus Monmouth and Mercer are likely to be 1-FCS Loss teams. This all makes a loss in The Brawl much more interesting.

The committee is savvy enough to also consider when MSU played SDSU, right? That's a completely different team right now than the one that came to Bozeman in early September.

Definitely. They also understand that the only team that has any shot of preventing the Cat-griz winner from making it to Nashville (other than the loser in a rematch) is SDSU with a healthy Mason.

What ever happens the Jacks need to figure it out fast. Their final 3 matchups are all ranked and only one is home. If they keep playing like they have the last 2 weeks they will lose all 3.

[Catprint]

Fully agree it comes down to the Brawl. I think my analysis was spot on in terms of Tarleton and SDSU needing to lose. It was a shocker that NAU lost and that is not great for the Cats. That will likely drop NAU out of the polls and remove our only "Ranked win". Everyone wants to point out Tarleton has no ranked wins and now a ranked loss. That is the same resume as the Cats. I don't happen to think Tarleton is a horrible team. They are going to get a Top 8 seed if they win out. SDSU, on the other hand, looks adrift. They easily could lose one or two more. Again, that is not great for the Cats resume because a "quality loss" to the #2 team is way more impressive committee than a loss to only a Top 15 team. Yes, it was at the beginning of the season but it will still matter. Where this all will make a difference is if Cats lose the Brawl in a close game. Getting #3 or #4 seed is far from certain as we might have only 1 ranked win (UC Davis) and 2 ranked losses (#2 Gris and #10 SDSU(?)) In addition, it will be interesting how the committee rewards a 11-1 Tennessee Tech (they play FBS Kentucky in 2nd to last game) and a 12-0 Lehigh. Both have terrible SOS's but they are already in the Top 10. Plus Monmouth and Mercer are likely to be 1-FCS Loss teams. This all makes a loss in The Brawl much more interesting.

The committee is savvy enough to also consider when MSU played SDSU, right? That's a completely different team right now than the one that came to Bozeman in early September.

Definitely. They also understand that the only team that has any shot of preventing the Cat-griz winner from making it to Nashville (other than the loser in a rematch) is SDSU with a healthy Mason.

What ever happens the Jacks need to figure it out fast. Their final 3 matchups are all ranked and only one is home. If they keep playing like they have the last 2 weeks they will lose all 3.

In a bizarre ending to the season, if the Jacks lose all three (possible but not likely) then at 7-5, I think they don't make the playoffs and our loss to them looks really bad to the committee. Sure, absence of Chase Mason will be taken into consideration but Indiana State will have a win over the #4 ranked team on the road. Maybe they should be considered for an At-Large bid

The whole system of ranked wins now/ranked wins then/SOS/head-to-head will be a nightmare for the committee and we may see the oddest set of seeded teams ever!

[Catprint]

Fully agree it comes down to the Brawl. I think my analysis was spot on in terms of Tarleton and SDSU needing to lose. It was a shocker that NAU lost and that is not great for the Cats. That will likely drop NAU out of the polls and remove our only "Ranked win". Everyone wants to point out Tarleton has no ranked wins and now a ranked loss. That is the same resume as the Cats. I don't happen to think Tarleton is a horrible team. They are going to get a Top 8 seed if they win out. SDSU, on the other hand, looks adrift. They easily could lose one or two more. Again, that is not great for the Cats resume because a "quality loss" to the #2 team is way more impressive committee than a loss to only a Top 15 team. Yes, it was at the beginning of the season but it will still matter. Where this all will make a difference is if Cats lose the Brawl in a close game. Getting #3 or #4 seed is far from certain as we might have only 1 ranked win (UC Davis) and 2 ranked losses (#2 Gris and #10 SDSU(?)) In addition, it will be interesting how the committee rewards a 11-1 Tennessee Tech (they play FBS Kentucky in 2nd to last game) and a 12-0 Lehigh. Both have terrible SOS's but they are already in the Top 10. Plus Monmouth and Mercer are likely to be 1-FCS Loss teams. This all makes a loss in The Brawl much more interesting.

One loss teams in the Patriot or SoCon or Southland that don't get their autobid regularly miss the playoffs.

Looked back 5 years. There is no record of any 1-loss team from Southland, Southern or Patriot league not making the playoffs. In fact, there are a number of times when 3 and 4 loss at-large teams from these leagues made the playoffs (as seen in the list here of autobid and at-large playoff teams from those conferences). Currently there are a number of teams from these leagues in play.

Southland
2019
Nicholls: 8-4
Cent Ark: 9-3
SELA: 7-4

2021
UIW: 9-2
SELA: 8-3

2022
SELA: 9-4
UIW: 10-1

Southern
2019
Wofford: 8-3
Furman: 8-4

2022
Samford 10-1
Furman 9-2

2023
Furman: 9-2
Chattanoga: 7-4
Mercer: 8-3

Patriot
2022
Holy Cross: 10-1
Fordham: 9-2

[Catprint]

Fully agree it comes down to the Brawl. I think my analysis was spot on in terms of Tarleton and SDSU needing to lose. It was a shocker that NAU lost and that is not great for the Cats. That will likely drop NAU out of the polls and remove our only "Ranked win". Everyone wants to point out Tarleton has no ranked wins and now a ranked loss. That is the same resume as the Cats. I don't happen to think Tarleton is a horrible team. They are going to get a Top 8 seed if they win out. SDSU, on the other hand, looks adrift. They easily could lose one or two more. Again, that is not great for the Cats resume because a "quality loss" to the #2 team is way more impressive committee than a loss to only a Top 15 team. Yes, it was at the beginning of the season but it will still matter. Where this all will make a difference is if Cats lose the Brawl in a close game. Getting #3 or #4 seed is far from certain as we might have only 1 ranked win (UC Davis) and 2 ranked losses (#2 Gris and #10 SDSU(?)) In addition, it will be interesting how the committee rewards a 11-1 Tennessee Tech (they play FBS Kentucky in 2nd to last game) and a 12-0 Lehigh. Both have terrible SOS's but they are already in the Top 10. Plus Monmouth and Mercer are likely to be 1-FCS Loss teams. This all makes a loss in The Brawl much more interesting.

MSUs 'ranked loss' was to the unanimous #2 team in the country. In double OT. NAU will likely make the playoffs (last 3 games against teams with a total 9-18 record). Committee is going to like that NAUs losses are to Davis, MSU, and Arizona State. And, let's face it, Idaho is probably better than any non-BSC/MVFC team not named Tarleton. (And maybe better than UTT)

Sac probably makes the playoffs if they win out. 2 FBS losses + MSU & UM with a win over Davis? That's a playoff resume for sure.

So Cats will finish the season with wins over 2 or 3 playoff teams plus the close loss to #2 at the time & a Top 5 FBS team.

Tarleton will have the win over Army...and wins against 2 teams with winning records (West Georgia and Austin Peay). Zero wins against the playoff field. Entirely possible that Tarleton ends up without a single game against the playoff field.

Given all these concerns were about the Cats losing the Brawl, Cats will have wins over only 2 teams with winning records (Davis and NAU) while Tarleton may end up with wins against 4 teams with winning records (Army, West Georgia, Austin Peay and Southern Utah - who will likely be 7-5.) Probably no wins against playoff teams but Army is ranked in the same range on Sagarin as MSU and UM so certainly a quality win.

All that said, it is possible NAU gets in at 8-4 with their weak opponents for their final three games . It is very difficult for Idaho to get in at 7-5. There are going to be lots of 8-4 and even 9-3 teams on the bubble. Realistically, it is impossible for Idaho and Sac State to both get in as one of them has to lose their game. With Idaho playing Davis, if Vandals lose, they will be out with their best possible record at 6-6. If Vandals win, then Davis will be 6-4 going into their last game against Sac state and will be on the edge. Sac State losses are to UM and UNC - which was a horrible loss on the resume. If Sac State wins out, then Davis may not make it because they could be 7-4 and 7 D-1 wins may not cut it especially if they have lost 3 of their last 4 games.

[onceacat]

Fully agree it comes down to the Brawl. I think my analysis was spot on in terms of Tarleton and SDSU needing to lose. It was a shocker that NAU lost and that is not great for the Cats. That will likely drop NAU out of the polls and remove our only "Ranked win". Everyone wants to point out Tarleton has no ranked wins and now a ranked loss. That is the same resume as the Cats. I don't happen to think Tarleton is a horrible team. They are going to get a Top 8 seed if they win out. SDSU, on the other hand, looks adrift. They easily could lose one or two more. Again, that is not great for the Cats resume because a "quality loss" to the #2 team is way more impressive committee than a loss to only a Top 15 team. Yes, it was at the beginning of the season but it will still matter. Where this all will make a difference is if Cats lose the Brawl in a close game. Getting #3 or #4 seed is far from certain as we might have only 1 ranked win (UC Davis) and 2 ranked losses (#2 Gris and #10 SDSU(?)) In addition, it will be interesting how the committee rewards a 11-1 Tennessee Tech (they play FBS Kentucky in 2nd to last game) and a 12-0 Lehigh. Both have terrible SOS's but they are already in the Top 10. Plus Monmouth and Mercer are likely to be 1-FCS Loss teams. This all makes a loss in The Brawl much more interesting.

One loss teams in the Patriot or SoCon or Southland that don't get their autobid regularly miss the playoffs.

Looked back 5 years. There is no record of any 1-loss team from Southland, Southern or Patriot league not making the playoffs. In fact, there are a number of times when 3 and 4 loss at-large teams from these leagues made the playoffs (as seen in the list here of autobid and at-large playoff teams from those conferences). Currently there are a number of teams from these leagues in play.

Southland
2019
Nicholls: 8-4
Cent Ark: 9-3
SELA: 7-4

2021
UIW: 9-2
SELA: 8-3

2022
SELA: 9-4
UIW: 10-1

Southern
2019
Wofford: 8-3
Furman: 8-4

2022
Samford 10-1
Furman 9-2

2023
Furman: 9-2
Chattanoga: 7-4
Mercer: 8-3

Patriot
2022
Holy Cross: 10-1
Fordham: 9-2

I stand corrected. Maybe I'm thinking back to the days before the expansion to 24 teams.

Maybe the best corollary I can find is in 2021 when Big South champ Kennesaw State went undefeated against the FCS & got a 7 seed.

You can correct me if I'm wrong, on this one, but I believe the last time a FBS lower tier conference team cracked the Top 4 seeds was Sam Houston (now FBS, also coming off a national championship game where they beat SDSU).

For fun, I looked rip the 2022 bracket since you listed 3 1 loss teams from those conferences. Those teams were seeded 6, 7, and 8.

William & Mary as the CAA champ 5 seed was the 5 seed, also with one loss.

I don't think theres any way a team from one of those conferences cracks the Top 4 without a big OOC win. Tarleton was getting a ton of mileage out of the win over Army, but 11-1 with no other wins against the playoff field isn't going to get you a Top 4.

I think all those teams you listed are obviously respectable, but none of them are in the running for a Top 4 team, barring some weird melt down from MSU or UM.

[Catprint]

WEEK 11: Part 1 - Brackets all crash – No one knows anything!! Selection Committee Top 10 Prediction

Whoa momma, no one saw this coming. All very good for the Cats but makes a mess of anyone’s brackets. So first thing this week is to look at what the Playoff Selection Committee will do on Wednesday. They provide some guidance to future games to consider. Because while the Cats position is clearly #2 seed if we win out; where the Cats fall if we lose The Brawl is a fog. Could be #3,4, 5 or even 6 depending on the remaining games for Tarleton State, SDSU, UND, Davis and …. Who else?

TOP 10 – Committee Ranking

I provide what I believe will be the committee ranking when released on Wednesday. The following week I will update my personal Top 12 based on win/loss; resume; FCS wins; SOS and eye test. Similar but not the same. Need to get one more week of games out of the way.

In the first rankings, MFVC and Big Sky dominated with 6 of the top 8 spots. Only Tarleton State (UAC) at #2 and Lehigh (Patriot) at #7 broke into the club. Now this week, as we all know, two of the top MFVC teams lost as well as one Big Sky team and Tarleton. What does the committee do with this mess? Do they follow the voters? Frankly, the voters are all over the map. I think they will still look at the overall body of work including ranked wins/FCS wins and losses/quality losses/injuries (like to Derek Robertson and Chase Mason). They are not looking just at what happened last weekend.

Here is my prediction of what the committee lists as the current top 10 teams in the FCS. Remember, the committee is not looking to the future, only evaluating where the teams are today; not in three weeks. My brackets/Top 12 (which I will update next week) are what I think will be at the end of the season taking into account how important games break out.

Predicted Playoff Committee TOP 10

#1 – NDSU – Really no question here. Sure, they struggled against a dynamic YGU team on Saturday but still undefeated and have the most ranked wins. Resume is great. #1 until someone defeats them.

#2 – MSU – Yes, I think Cats are number 2 but here is my unbiased logic for committee’s decision. Since the time of the first ranking where the committee had the Cats at #4 and Gris at #5, #2 SDSU has lost twice; #3 Tarleton lost once and both the Cats and Gris have won. The Gris have won their three games by a combined score of 130-73 for point differential of 57 (19 per game). The Cats have won their two games 89-24 (32 per game). The eye test supports the committee having the Cats ahead of the Gris then and now. Cats are simply playing better.

#3 – Gris – That all said, it is really close in terms of where these two teams are at. I don’t share the viewpoint of a number of posters that the Gris are not any good. They are good and they have a dynamic offense that will be hard to stop. Defense is just above average but offense has pulled them out of the fire time and time again.

#4 – Tarleton State – Some think Tarleton is the committee’s poster child. But I see a team that plays solid offensively, have a strong defense and are very deep. Yes, they lost but to a Top 20 team on a last second field goal. It is their ONLY loss – FCS or FBS.

#5 – Lehigh – seems like a good fit. Can’t see how they don’t move up. But no ranked wins and pretty bad SOS – 88th. But no FCS losses. Ugh. Just is.

#6 – Monmouth – Doing nothing but winning, I see them moving up. Even without their star QB, they still win convincingly each week.

#7 – SDSU – I believe the committee will look at SDSU with and without Mason and consider that upon his return they are a top 10 team.

#8 – Tenn Tech – Who else goes in this spot? Undefeated but SOS of 96. No good wins but every win is by 2 scores or more – except last week against a team with a winning record. I wouldn’t put them here.

#9 – UC Davis – Only one FCS loss, albeit to a one-win against the FCS team (before this week). SOS of 20 helps them get in the top 10 – at least until they play MSU.

#10 – Mercer – The Bears crack open the Top 10 due to their 7-1 record. But can’t be any better than 9-2 (“lost” game in the rain and Alabama to play). Not sure I really believe this but the final spot is a crap shoot.

#11 – WILD CARDS – Anyone could be #10.
Harvard – Comes in right under the wire, maybe. Why? I don’t know. Just think that is what “Commit” will do. Will sub in for one of my final 3.
Villanova – At 6-2 with only a FCS loss to Monmouth, Nova sneaks into the top 10
UND – at 6-3 with 2 FCS losses to Top 25 teams maybe they still have a case?
URI – I don’t think so – SOS of 73 and have beaten no one.

CLICK TO ENLARGE



Who we want to Lose

LAST WEEK

Didn’t even have all the upsets in my list because in a 100 years never would have seen SDSU lose to Indiana State. Only got 1 out of 5.

1) Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian – GOT IT. Biggest lose of the season.
2) Gardner @ Tenn Tech – NOPE, tried to play them close.
3) UND @ USD –NOPE, but in combination with other losses, it is good. Just never could see so many upsets in one weekend.
4) Mercer @ Furman –NOPE - MERCER still rolling. Could be in the Top 10 FCS ranking released on Wed.
5) UTRGV @ SFA –NOPE but does drop UTRGV off the playoff bubble so we don’t have to listen to anymore speculation.

THIS WEEK – Boy, after last week, I think I have to believe games will go chalk. … but then what is chalk? There is no way we can even say who should win some of these games. This week is best slate of games for WWWTL all year! Let’s go with what best for the Cats. Mind, you this only matters if Cats lose the Brawl. Cats win out, we get #2 seed so we won’t care. But we won’t know that until about 3:00 PM on the 22nd.

1) SDSU @ USD – This is the toughest call of all the games. On one hand, we want SDSU to lose so maybe they don’t even get a top 8 seed in the playoffs. Makes it so there is no way we go to Brookings. But if Cats lose the Brawl, we need SDSU to be a “quality loss”. Our stock to the committee may look weaker if we don’t have ranked wins and SDSU looks bad. I am torn as to what helps the Cats more but I am going with staying out of Brookings so SDSU TO LOSE.

2) NDSU @ UND – Another tough pick here. This is only game NDSU can lose of last three. Their next two games are Murray State (how did they ever get into the MVFC?) and St Thomas of Pioneer League. So NDSU loses and Cats win out and we have maybe a 40/60% of getting number 1 seed. But if NDSU loses and Cats Lose the Brawl, then Gris get #1 seed (12-0 Gris get #1 seed similar to Cats last year) and I can’t stand that. Plus NDSU gets #2 and we get #3 and go to Fargo. But NDSU wins and Cats lose The Brawl, we might drop to #4 and still go to Fargo. UND shot themselves in the foot and any chance of top 4 seed by losing to USD last week. So they are no threat to hosting a semi-final game. Given that convoluted trail, NDSU TO LOSE. (Cause don’t we hate the Bison anyways?)

3) SIU @ Youngstown – Why do we care? Well, we need to have fewer MVFC teams in the playoffs. Partly so a third or maybe even a fourth Big Sky game gets in. But more so I would rather play a Lamar or Rhode Island in the 2nd round than any MVFC team – just not as easy. YGU is already 6-4 while SIU is 5-3 (with a D-2 win). YGU could win their last two games against Indiana State and UNI. In my mind, we want to drop them from the playoff bubble this weekend so YGU TO LOSE.

4) UNH @ Monmouth – Don’t want more than 3 CAA teams in the playoffs. But hoping someone can pop Monmouth’s bubble. I don’t want to see any one of these three QBs in Bobcat stadium; let someone else knock them out - Derek Robertson (Monmouth); Taron Dickens (Western Carolina) or Brian Atkinson (Mercer). MONMOUTH TO LOSE.

5) URI @ Elon – Going with my ongoing distain for URI and the need to weaken the CAA champ – URI TO LOSE.

6) Mercer @ Western Carolina – Another tough one. This game could be 55-52! Mercer #10 in scoring offense and winners of 7 in a row while WCU is 14th and winners of 6 in a row. Both are undefeated in conference play and winner almost certainly wins The Southern Conference title. Because WCU already has 3 losses we want MERCER TO LOSE.

7) SELA @ Lamar – Lamar losing to UIW last week was simply bizarre. Their schedule is tough and I doubt they can beat SELA and SFA. They end up 8-4 (8-3 FCS) but still can get in as at Large. SELA that good? Hope not – SELA TO LOSE.

8 ) Utah Tech @ ACU – Why do I include this game? Because we want a weak UAC top of the pack and we want to show ACU was not that great to Tarleton’s loss looks even worse. Any change Utah Tech pulls the upset. I think a chance as the techies have played a lot of teams close. So maybe if there is a post Tarleton State victory let down by ACU which gives Tech a chance so ACU TO LOSE.

9) UNC @ NAU – I typically don’t include Big Sky games but it is vital for NAU (and Davis) to win this weekend. More about that later but it is all a fallback if Cats lose the Brawl. Our resume needs to include some Top 10 and top 25 victories. Every game is a playoff game for NAU so UNC TO LOSE.

10) Davis @ Idaho – No win situation here. Idaho is coming on strong but even if they win out, I do not see them getting in at 7-5. Davis was abysmal last week and maybe they are not good. But that dampens the Saturday night game in 10 days and weakens our resume. We need to have beaten some ranked teams. Too much beat down among Big Sky teams. We need Davis ranked so IDAHO TO LOSE.

One more thing – in Sam Herder’s Podcast today, Sam was asking Zach McKinnell whether anyone could beat NDSU or are they vulnerable to the right team? Zach’s answer was simply “If you ignore resumes and ranked wins and all of that, Montana State is playing out of their minds and they look to me like the only team that could beat NDSU if the game is tomorrow.” So much for McKinnell being “anti-MSU”. I happen to think he is very thoughtful and careful with his rankings and view and knows more about the FCS than just about any writer. Having strong opinions is a tough business. But for now, McKinnell sees the Cats as the only challenge to NDSU.

Ok, more in a couple of days.

GO CATS!!

[coloradocat]

WEEK 11: Part 1 - Brackets all crash – No one knows anything!! Selection Committee Top 10 Prediction

One more thing – in Sam Herder’s Podcast today, Sam was asking Zach McKinnell whether anyone could beat NDSU or are they vulnerable to the right team? Zach’s answer was simply “If you ignore resumes and ranked wins and all of that, Montana State is playing out of their minds and they look to me like the only team that could beat NDSU if the game is tomorrow.” So much for McKinnell being “anti-MSU”. I happen to think he is very thoughtful and careful with his rankings and view and knows more about the FCS than just about any writer. Having strong opinions is a tough business. But for now, McKinnell sees the Cats as the only challenge to NDSU.

The Bobcats are playing so well that even Zach MicKinnell has to abandon his anti-Cat bias. I think "strong opinions" is part of his brand and it doesn't benefit his analysis. He's not sports radio bad but he's got aspirations. He's almost unlistenable on that podcast when he talks about the Cats so it was nice to hear him grudgingly acknowledge that we pass the eye test.

[kwcat]

WEEK 11: Part 1 - Brackets all crash – No one knows anything!! Selection Committee Top 10 Prediction

One more thing – in Sam Herder’s Podcast today, Sam was asking Zach McKinnell whether anyone could beat NDSU or are they vulnerable to the right team? Zach’s answer was simply “If you ignore resumes and ranked wins and all of that, Montana State is playing out of their minds and they look to me like the only team that could beat NDSU if the game is tomorrow.” So much for McKinnell being “anti-MSU”. I happen to think he is very thoughtful and careful with his rankings and view and knows more about the FCS than just about any writer. Having strong opinions is a tough business. But for now, McKinnell sees the Cats as the only challenge to NDSU.

The Bobcats are playing so well that even Zach MicKinnell has to abandon his anti-Cat bias. I think "strong opinions" is part of his brand and it doesn't benefit his analysis. He's not sports radio bad but he's got aspirations. He's almost unlistenable on that podcast when he talks about the Cats so it was nice to hear him grudgingly acknowledge that we pass the eye test.

Do you have a link to Sam Herder Zach McKinnell podcast?
Can’t seem to locate it

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-2-bzbz/

Found it
https://herosports.com/fcs-podcast-chao ... p-25-bzbz/

[MSU01]

Here's Sam Herder's latest bracket projection, he has MSU as the #3 seed suggesting that they could still end up that high even if they lose the Brawl. If MSU doesn't get the #2 seed this seems like about as good of a bracket as they could get, I don't think they'd have much trouble getting by SFA/Illinois State and Lehigh/Harvard to reach the semifinals and there would also be a healthier SDSU team or UC Davis lurking in the Griz' quarter of the bracket to potentially knock them out and give MSU a home semifinal game.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-2-bzbz/

[catatac]

Here's Sam Herder's latest bracket projection, he has MSU as the #3 seed suggesting that they could still end up that high even if they lose the Brawl. If MSU doesn't get the #2 seed this seems like about as good of a bracket as they could get, I don't think they'd have much trouble getting by SFA/Illinois State and Lehigh/Harvard to reach the semifinals and there would also be a healthier SDSU team or UC Davis lurking in the Griz' quarter of the bracket to potentially knock them out and give MSU a home semifinal game.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-2-bzbz/

Definitely makes one think, doesn't it. if it's NDSU 1 and UM 2... I hate being 3 OR 4. Hate having to play NDSU in their house, and REALLY hate the idea of having to go back to Zootown and play them after they've already beaten us once.

[91catAlum]

Here's Sam Herder's latest bracket projection, he has MSU as the #3 seed suggesting that they could still end up that high even if they lose the Brawl. If MSU doesn't get the #2 seed this seems like about as good of a bracket as they could get, I don't think they'd have much trouble getting by SFA/Illinois State and Lehigh/Harvard to reach the semifinals and there would also be a healthier SDSU team or UC Davis lurking in the Griz' quarter of the bracket to potentially knock them out and give MSU a home semifinal game.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-2-bzbz/

Definitely makes one think, doesn't it. if it's NDSU 1 and UM 2... I hate being 3 OR 4. Hate having to play NDSU in their house, and REALLY hate the idea of having to go back to Zootown and play them after they've already beaten us once.

Well, if we lose the Brawl then thats exactly where we'll end up. 3 means another trip to missoula and 4 or 5 means a trip to Fargo. Doubt we'd drop all the way to 6, who would the committee put above us??

BUT I honestly think we'll win it this year. The griz might hit a couple big plays with their skill guys but the Cats will win the game in the trenches and with our much superior defense.

[coloradocat]

Here's Sam Herder's latest bracket projection, he has MSU as the #3 seed suggesting that they could still end up that high even if they lose the Brawl. If MSU doesn't get the #2 seed this seems like about as good of a bracket as they could get, I don't think they'd have much trouble getting by SFA/Illinois State and Lehigh/Harvard to reach the semifinals and there would also be a healthier SDSU team or UC Davis lurking in the Griz' quarter of the bracket to potentially knock them out and give MSU a home semifinal game.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-2-bzbz/

Definitely makes one think, doesn't it. if it's NDSU 1 and UM 2... I hate being 3 OR 4. Hate having to play NDSU in their house, and REALLY hate the idea of having to go back to Zootown and play them after they've already beaten us once.

Well, if we lose the Brawl then thats exactly where we'll end up. 3 means another trip to missoula and 4 or 5 means a trip to Fargo. Doubt we'd drop all the way to 6, who would the committee put above us??

BUT I honestly think we'll win it this year. The griz might hit a couple big plays with their skill guys but the Cats will win the game in the trenches and with our much superior defense.

The big question is would you rather go back to Missoula for a second shot at them or go to Fargo and try to win there? The upside would be great for both but the downside is much worse going back to Missoula.

[catatac]

Here's Sam Herder's latest bracket projection, he has MSU as the #3 seed suggesting that they could still end up that high even if they lose the Brawl. If MSU doesn't get the #2 seed this seems like about as good of a bracket as they could get, I don't think they'd have much trouble getting by SFA/Illinois State and Lehigh/Harvard to reach the semifinals and there would also be a healthier SDSU team or UC Davis lurking in the Griz' quarter of the bracket to potentially knock them out and give MSU a home semifinal game.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-2-bzbz/

Definitely makes one think, doesn't it. if it's NDSU 1 and UM 2... I hate being 3 OR 4. Hate having to play NDSU in their house, and REALLY hate the idea of having to go back to Zootown and play them after they've already beaten us once.

Well, if we lose the Brawl then thats exactly where we'll end up. 3 means another trip to missoula and 4 or 5 means a trip to Fargo. Doubt we'd drop all the way to 6, who would the committee put above us??

BUT I honestly think we'll win it this year. The griz might hit a couple big plays with their skill guys but the Cats will win the game in the trenches and with our much superior defense.

Yep, I agree. I also saw a bracket where NDSU gets beat by UND and Cats and Griz end up 1 and 2... wouldn't that be epic. I don't know if the committee would put both MSU and UM above the Bison if their only loss is to UND but who knows.

[tetoncat]

Here's Sam Herder's latest bracket projection, he has MSU as the #3 seed suggesting that they could still end up that high even if they lose the Brawl. If MSU doesn't get the #2 seed this seems like about as good of a bracket as they could get, I don't think they'd have much trouble getting by SFA/Illinois State and Lehigh/Harvard to reach the semifinals and there would also be a healthier SDSU team or UC Davis lurking in the Griz' quarter of the bracket to potentially knock them out and give MSU a home semifinal game.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-2-bzbz/

Definitely makes one think, doesn't it. if it's NDSU 1 and UM 2... I hate being 3 OR 4. Hate having to play NDSU in their house, and REALLY hate the idea of having to go back to Zootown and play them after they've already beaten us once.

Well, if we lose the Brawl then thats exactly where we'll end up. 3 means another trip to missoula and 4 or 5 means a trip to Fargo. Doubt we'd drop all the way to 6, who would the committee put above us??

BUT I honestly think we'll win it this year. The griz might hit a couple big plays with their skill guys but the Cats will win the game in the trenches and with our much superior defense.

The big question is would you rather go back to Missoula for a second shot at them or go to Fargo and try to win there? The upside would be great for both but the downside is much worse going back to Missoula.

Exactly because if Cats lose Brawl they are going to one or the other.

[tetoncat]

Here's Sam Herder's latest bracket projection, he has MSU as the #3 seed suggesting that they could still end up that high even if they lose the Brawl. If MSU doesn't get the #2 seed this seems like about as good of a bracket as they could get, I don't think they'd have much trouble getting by SFA/Illinois State and Lehigh/Harvard to reach the semifinals and there would also be a healthier SDSU team or UC Davis lurking in the Griz' quarter of the bracket to potentially knock them out and give MSU a home semifinal game.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-2-bzbz/

Interesting as Tarleton has no BSC or MVFC teams in their quarter.

[91catAlum]

Here's Sam Herder's latest bracket projection, he has MSU as the #3 seed suggesting that they could still end up that high even if they lose the Brawl. If MSU doesn't get the #2 seed this seems like about as good of a bracket as they could get, I don't think they'd have much trouble getting by SFA/Illinois State and Lehigh/Harvard to reach the semifinals and there would also be a healthier SDSU team or UC Davis lurking in the Griz' quarter of the bracket to potentially knock them out and give MSU a home semifinal game.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-2-bzbz/

Definitely makes one think, doesn't it. if it's NDSU 1 and UM 2... I hate being 3 OR 4. Hate having to play NDSU in their house, and REALLY hate the idea of having to go back to Zootown and play them after they've already beaten us once.

Well, if we lose the Brawl then thats exactly where we'll end up. 3 means another trip to missoula and 4 or 5 means a trip to Fargo. Doubt we'd drop all the way to 6, who would the committee put above us??

BUT I honestly think we'll win it this year. The griz might hit a couple big plays with their skill guys but the Cats will win the game in the trenches and with our much superior defense.

The big question is would you rather go back to Missoula for a second shot at them or go to Fargo and try to win there? The upside would be great for both but the downside is much worse going back to Missoula.

Why is the downside worse going to missoula? I don't see it that way. Ndsu has ended our season every frickn year since 2018 with only 1 exception. Not sure i want to watch it again this year and I don't see this year's bison team losing in Fargo.

[cats2506]

Here's Sam Herder's latest bracket projection, he has MSU as the #3 seed suggesting that they could still end up that high even if they lose the Brawl. If MSU doesn't get the #2 seed this seems like about as good of a bracket as they could get, I don't think they'd have much trouble getting by SFA/Illinois State and Lehigh/Harvard to reach the semifinals and there would also be a healthier SDSU team or UC Davis lurking in the Griz' quarter of the bracket to potentially knock them out and give MSU a home semifinal game.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-2-bzbz/

Interesting as Tarleton has no BSC or MVFC teams in their quarter.

Gotta prop up those Southern teams

[catatac]

Here's Sam Herder's latest bracket projection, he has MSU as the #3 seed suggesting that they could still end up that high even if they lose the Brawl. If MSU doesn't get the #2 seed this seems like about as good of a bracket as they could get, I don't think they'd have much trouble getting by SFA/Illinois State and Lehigh/Harvard to reach the semifinals and there would also be a healthier SDSU team or UC Davis lurking in the Griz' quarter of the bracket to potentially knock them out and give MSU a home semifinal game.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-2-bzbz/

Definitely makes one think, doesn't it. if it's NDSU 1 and UM 2... I hate being 3 OR 4. Hate having to play NDSU in their house, and REALLY hate the idea of having to go back to Zootown and play them after they've already beaten us once.

Well, if we lose the Brawl then thats exactly where we'll end up. 3 means another trip to missoula and 4 or 5 means a trip to Fargo. Doubt we'd drop all the way to 6, who would the committee put above us??

BUT I honestly think we'll win it this year. The griz might hit a couple big plays with their skill guys but the Cats will win the game in the trenches and with our much superior defense.

The big question is would you rather go back to Missoula for a second shot at them or go to Fargo and try to win there? The upside would be great for both but the downside is much worse going back to Missoula.

Exactly because if Cats lose Brawl they are going to one or the other.

Unless NDSU loses to UND, which could perhaps change some things.

[catatac]

Here's Sam Herder's latest bracket projection, he has MSU as the #3 seed suggesting that they could still end up that high even if they lose the Brawl. If MSU doesn't get the #2 seed this seems like about as good of a bracket as they could get, I don't think they'd have much trouble getting by SFA/Illinois State and Lehigh/Harvard to reach the semifinals and there would also be a healthier SDSU team or UC Davis lurking in the Griz' quarter of the bracket to potentially knock them out and give MSU a home semifinal game.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-2-bzbz/

Definitely makes one think, doesn't it. if it's NDSU 1 and UM 2... I hate being 3 OR 4. Hate having to play NDSU in their house, and REALLY hate the idea of having to go back to Zootown and play them after they've already beaten us once.

Well, if we lose the Brawl then thats exactly where we'll end up. 3 means another trip to missoula and 4 or 5 means a trip to Fargo. Doubt we'd drop all the way to 6, who would the committee put above us??

BUT I honestly think we'll win it this year. The griz might hit a couple big plays with their skill guys but the Cats will win the game in the trenches and with our much superior defense.

The big question is would you rather go back to Missoula for a second shot at them or go to Fargo and try to win there? The upside would be great for both but the downside is much worse going back to Missoula.

Why is the downside worse going to missoula? I don't see it that way. Ndsu has ended our season every frickn year since 2018 with only 1 exception. Not sure i want to watch it again this year and I don't see this year's bison team losing in Fargo.

To me, the biggest question is, in what venue do we have the best chance of pulling the upset? Because if we're talking about what is worse... losing in Fargo or losing in Missoula, I'm saying losing to the Griz in Missoula for the second time in a season and having to listen to those DBs for a full year is absolutely the worst case scenario in my mind.

[coloradocat]

Here's Sam Herder's latest bracket projection, he has MSU as the #3 seed suggesting that they could still end up that high even if they lose the Brawl. If MSU doesn't get the #2 seed this seems like about as good of a bracket as they could get, I don't think they'd have much trouble getting by SFA/Illinois State and Lehigh/Harvard to reach the semifinals and there would also be a healthier SDSU team or UC Davis lurking in the Griz' quarter of the bracket to potentially knock them out and give MSU a home semifinal game.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-2-bzbz/

Definitely makes one think, doesn't it. if it's NDSU 1 and UM 2... I hate being 3 OR 4. Hate having to play NDSU in their house, and REALLY hate the idea of having to go back to Zootown and play them after they've already beaten us once.

Well, if we lose the Brawl then thats exactly where we'll end up. 3 means another trip to missoula and 4 or 5 means a trip to Fargo. Doubt we'd drop all the way to 6, who would the committee put above us??

BUT I honestly think we'll win it this year. The griz might hit a couple big plays with their skill guys but the Cats will win the game in the trenches and with our much superior defense.

The big question is would you rather go back to Missoula for a second shot at them or go to Fargo and try to win there? The upside would be great for both but the downside is much worse going back to Missoula.

Why is the downside worse going to missoula? I don't see it that way. Ndsu has ended our season every frickn year since 2018 with only 1 exception. Not sure i want to watch it again this year and I don't see this year's bison team losing in Fargo.

To me, the biggest question is, in what venue do we have the best chance of pulling the upset? Because if we're talking about what is worse... losing in Fargo or losing in Missoula, I'm saying losing to the Griz in Missoula for the second time in a season and having to listen to those DBs for a full year is absolutely the worst case scenario in my mind.

We're more likely to win in Missoula than Fargo but losing in Missoula 2x in about a month and sending them to Nashville in the process would be the second worst outcome to the season possible (losing to them in Nashville).