Bracket talk

[kwcat]

I think there’s a decent chance Sac beats UND and then beats USD, which would mean the Cats get a 2nd home game, if we can get past NDSU. That’s what we’re all hoping for obviously. Either that or UND beats Sac then USD. They almost did in their first game.

I'm not sure Sac has the defense to beat USD. Bennet is hobbled and they don't have another QB that is very good either.

How can Sac beat UND if they can't beat UCD?
..and on the road because UND will probably out bid them. UND is garbage on the road and will not touch USD.

UND lost to USD on the road 14 to 10 was a pretty good game

[MSU01]

I think the committee did a vastly better job this year than last with the bracket. Everything makes sense, no headscratchers whatsoever like last year. Good bracket for MSU too, although to me the one and only criterion for that is not being on the same side as SDSU.

[catatac]

I think the committee did a vastly better job this year than last with the bracket. Everything makes sense, no headscratchers whatsoever like last year. Good bracket for MSU too, although to me the one and only criterion for that is not being on the same side as SDSU.

That was my thinking all along, avoid the SDSU side, until Saturday. Now I wish we were on the other side. Ya, I know that's a loser, defeatist attitude but it's WAY more difficult to win in Missoula. SDSU is a better team than UM but again, much tougher to win at UM.

[Prodigal Cat]

I think the committee did a vastly better job this year than last with the bracket. Everything makes sense, no headscratchers whatsoever like last year. Good bracket for MSU too, although to me the one and only criterion for that is not being on the same side as SDSU.

That was my thinking all along, avoid the SDSU side, until Saturday. Now I wish we were on the other side. Ya, I know that's a loser, defeatist attitude but it's WAY more difficult to win in Missoula. SDSU is a better team than UM but again, much tougher to win at UM.

I disagree. What happened on Saturday was more about scheme, momentum and playing your rival in a massively hyped game. I'm still of the belief that Cats are more talented and better team than the griz. I hope they get a chance to prove it. I am less so about the Jacks. They are really, really good.

[Prodigal Cat]

NDSU has me very worried.
If the Cats get their s*** together, they should be able to take down NDSU. However, after the debacle in Missoula I am quite worried. Will the players and coaches respond, or will we see another L to a Dakota school.

This. Despite their three losses, they are still NDSU.

Not really, at least they aren't the NDSU we are used to. Theo Day threw 3 INT's and they still scored 27 points. You know who also looked good versus UNI? Weber St. NDSU just isn't the same team defense as they have been and their schedule wasn't super difficult. The only team they beat that is currently ranked is SIU who's offense is dreadful. They lost to the other Playoffs teams they played including 1 at home. Cats would be 10-1 with their schedule.
Have they earned some respect and are they a tough draw, MOST DEFINITELY YES. It's the playoffs though and there will only be 16 teams left playing. They all have some game to them.

Missouri State beat UNI the week before NDSU 35-16 and UNI scored with just a couple minutes to play. Bison defense good against SIU but that game was 13-10 at half. SDSU out scored Bison 30-3 after Bison scored TD to start the game. Bison scored on a long pick 6 and got a TD after a shanked punt to the 30.

One the main reason Sportsbooks are successful at making money is people are prisoner of the moment. Very few people think MSU can win a playoff game and are picking the Bison. They are looking at last weeks results and making a wholesale judgments on both teams based on just the latest game.

[GoGriz1023]

I think the committee did a vastly better job this year than last with the bracket. Everything makes sense, no headscratchers whatsoever like last year. Good bracket for MSU too, although to me the one and only criterion for that is not being on the same side as SDSU.

That was my thinking all along, avoid the SDSU side, until Saturday. Now I wish we were on the other side. Ya, I know that's a loser, defeatist attitude but it's WAY more difficult to win in Missoula. SDSU is a better team than UM but again, much tougher to win at UM.

I disagree. What happened on Saturday was more about scheme, momentum and playing your rival in a massively hyped game. I'm still of the belief that Cats are more talented and better team than the griz. I hope they get a chance to prove it. I am less so about the Jacks. They are really, really good.

Your comment is why they play the game. Have they played yet or did miss I something? Oh, wait...guess the Cats ARE the better team..oh, wait, never mind.

[John K]

For what it's worth this is the field with current Sagarin ratings along with the seeds:

Seed Sagrin
33 SDSU #1
71 NDSU
75 MSU #6
90 friz. #2
96 Idaho #4
109 Southern Ill
115 Villanova #8
118 USD #3
122 UND
124 Youngstown State
129 Sac State
130 Furman #7
131 Delaware
132 Austin Peay
135 Albany #5
155 Chattanooga
156 Nicholls State
161 Mercer
162 Richmond
172 Gardner Webb
184 Lafayette
185 NC Central
209 Duquesne
244 Drake

Drake is not only the worst team in the entire playoff field, by far, according to Sagarin, they are also rated lower than every single team in the BSC, even UNCU and Cal Poly. NDSU will beat them by at least 40 points, probably more. If Drake is the best team in the PFL, then that entire conference should be relegated to D-II. UCD would probably beat them by at least 40 too.

[RickRund]

For what it's worth this is the field with current Sagarin ratings along with the seeds:

Seed Sagrin
33 SDSU #1
71 NDSU
75 MSU #6
90 friz. #2
96 Idaho #4
109 Southern Ill
115 Villanova #8
118 USD #3
122 UND
124 Youngstown State
129 Sac State
130 Furman #7
131 Delaware
132 Austin Peay
135 Albany #5
155 Chattanooga
156 Nicholls State
161 Mercer
162 Richmond
172 Gardner Webb
184 Lafayette
185 NC Central
209 Duquesne
244 Drake

Drake is not only the worst team in the entire playoff field, by far, according to Sagarin, they are also rated lower than every single team in the BSC, even UNCU and Cal Poly. NDSU will beat them by at least 40 points, probably more. If Drake is the best team in the PFL, then that entire conference should be relegated to D-II. UCD would probably beat them by at least 40 too.

SDSU squeaked by them 70-7. Massey has NDSU winning 45-2.

St Thomas is 88th, then Drake at 96th. The rest are 106, 110, 119, 121, 122, 123, 125 and 128... Well, the conference is consistent if nothing else.

[Bocephus]

I think the committee did a vastly better job this year than last with the bracket. Everything makes sense, no headscratchers whatsoever like last year. Good bracket for MSU too, although to me the one and only criterion for that is not being on the same side as SDSU.

That was my thinking all along, avoid the SDSU side, until Saturday. Now I wish we were on the other side. Ya, I know that's a loser, defeatist attitude but it's WAY more difficult to win in Missoula. SDSU is a better team than UM but again, much tougher to win at UM.

I disagree. What happened on Saturday was more about scheme, momentum and playing your rival in a massively hyped game. I'm still of the belief that Cats are more talented and better team than the griz. I hope they get a chance to prove it. I am less so about the Jacks. They are really, really good.

Watching Gronowski highlights makes me think he may get his shot on Sundays. That guy throws a clean ball.

[catatac]

For what it's worth this is the field with current Sagarin ratings along with the seeds:

Seed Sagrin
33 SDSU #1
71 NDSU
75 MSU #6
90 friz. #2
96 Idaho #4
109 Southern Ill
115 Villanova #8
118 USD #3
122 UND
124 Youngstown State
129 Sac State
130 Furman #7
131 Delaware
132 Austin Peay
135 Albany #5
155 Chattanooga
156 Nicholls State
161 Mercer
162 Richmond
172 Gardner Webb
184 Lafayette
185 NC Central
209 Duquesne
244 Drake

Drake is not only the worst team in the entire playoff field, by far, according to Sagarin, they are also rated lower than every single team in the BSC, even UNCU and Cal Poly. NDSU will beat them by at least 40 points, probably more. If Drake is the best team in the PFL, then that entire conference should be relegated to D-II. UCD would probably beat them by at least 40 too.

Ya, I'm probably putting some money down on NDSU to cover the 32 points.

[John K]

For what it's worth this is the field with current Sagarin ratings along with the seeds:

Seed Sagrin
33 SDSU #1
71 NDSU
75 MSU #6
90 friz. #2
96 Idaho #4
109 Southern Ill
115 Villanova #8
118 USD #3
122 UND
124 Youngstown State
129 Sac State
130 Furman #7
131 Delaware
132 Austin Peay
135 Albany #5
155 Chattanooga
156 Nicholls State
161 Mercer
162 Richmond
172 Gardner Webb
184 Lafayette
185 NC Central
209 Duquesne
244 Drake

Drake is not only the worst team in the entire playoff field, by far, according to Sagarin, they are also rated lower than every single team in the BSC, even UNCU and Cal Poly. NDSU will beat them by at least 40 points, probably more. If Drake is the best team in the PFL, then that entire conference should be relegated to D-II. UCD would probably beat them by at least 40 too.

SDSU squeaked by them 70-7. Massey has NDSU winning 45-2.

St Thomas is 88th, then Drake at 96th. The rest are 106, 110, 119, 121, 122, 123, 125 and 128... Well, the conference is consistent if nothing else.

So all 10 of their teams are ranked in the bottom 40 (bottom 30% approximately) of the FCS. I think the PFL's auto bid should be pulled. UC-Davis (just to name one of many) is far more deserving of a playoff berth than Drake. I would be willing to bet everything I own that NDSU covers the 32 point spread. No wonder Rob Ash wanted to get out of there (Drake/PFL)...haha.

[Prodigal Cat]

I think the committee did a vastly better job this year than last with the bracket. Everything makes sense, no headscratchers whatsoever like last year. Good bracket for MSU too, although to me the one and only criterion for that is not being on the same side as SDSU.

That was my thinking all along, avoid the SDSU side, until Saturday. Now I wish we were on the other side. Ya, I know that's a loser, defeatist attitude but it's WAY more difficult to win in Missoula. SDSU is a better team than UM but again, much tougher to win at UM.

I disagree. What happened on Saturday was more about scheme, momentum and playing your rival in a massively hyped game. I'm still of the belief that Cats are more talented and better team than the griz. I hope they get a chance to prove it. I am less so about the Jacks. They are really, really good.

Watching Gronowski highlights makes me think he may get his shot on Sundays. That guy throws a clean ball.

Some team is gonna get him on the cheap and he will make the roster. He’s very good.

[seataccat]

NDSU has me very worried.
If the Cats get their s*** together, they should be able to take down NDSU. However, after the debacle in Missoula I am quite worried. Will the players and coaches respond, or will we see another L to a Dakota school.

I just don't see this team beating NDSU.

[TomCat88]

NDSU has me very worried.
If the Cats get their s*** together, they should be able to take down NDSU. However, after the debacle in Missoula I am quite worried. Will the players and coaches respond, or will we see another L to a Dakota school.

I just don't see this team beating NDSU.

The Griz game is the only game this year that if they played well they still probably would’ve lost. MSU hasn’t played a complete game all year IMO mostly due to self-inflicted mistakes. Despite that they’ve blown teams out, simply overwhelmed teams or have barely lost sans UM.

The losses to SDSU and Idaho weren’t games that they were beat, they just lost. Nine false starts in one. Three dropped passes, among other things, in the critical first half in the other.

I don’t think MSU has come close to showing the ability to stay focused for an entire game once this year. They do it for big chunks and it’s good enough. That’s what is maddening about watching them play. Even casual observers and opponent staff and fans have pointed this out. It’s glaring. What percentage of gadget plays have worked this year? Not much of one. A gadget play should work about 90% of time and when it doesn’t it shouldn’t be from not running it correctly. If it is, then players just are focused. But it isn’t just gadget plays where that’s happening. Typically athletes lose focus on good teams because they think good enough not to. You need to be focused and relaxed but if you’re too much of one or the other things go haywire.

[catatac]

NDSU has me very worried.
If the Cats get their s*** together, they should be able to take down NDSU. However, after the debacle in Missoula I am quite worried. Will the players and coaches respond, or will we see another L to a Dakota school.

I just don't see this team beating NDSU.

I just don't see how this year's NDSU team comes into Bobcat Stadium and beats the Cats. Although, if the same uninspired Cat team that just played in Missoula shows up in Bozeman... then I agree NDSU will win, even with Cats at home. However, I think that team that showed up in Missoula is long gone. Hoping so anyway!

[onceacat]

NDSU has me very worried.
If the Cats get their s*** together, they should be able to take down NDSU. However, after the debacle in Missoula I am quite worried. Will the players and coaches respond, or will we see another L to a Dakota school.

I just don't see this team beating NDSU.

The Griz game is the only game this year that if they played well they still probably would’ve lost. MSU hasn’t played a complete game all year IMO mostly due to self-inflicted mistakes. Despite that they’ve blown teams out, simply overwhelmed teams or have barely lost sans UM.

The losses to SDSU and Idaho weren’t games that they were beat, they just lost. Nine false starts in one. Three dropped passes, among other things, in the critical first half in the other.

I don’t think MSU has come close to showing the ability to stay focused for an entire game once this year. They do it for big chunks and it’s good enough. That’s what is maddening about watching them play. Even casual observers and opponent staff and fans have pointed this out. It’s glaring. What percentage of gadget plays have worked this year? Not much of one. A gadget play should work about 90% of time and when it doesn’t it shouldn’t be from not running it correctly. If it is, then players just are focused. But it isn’t just gadget plays where that’s happening. Typically athletes lose focus on good teams because they think good enough not to. You need to be focused and relaxed but if you’re too much of one or the other things go haywire.

I think this is as good an explanation as anything. This is the parallel I was drawing to the 2014 team (no, I don't think Vigne needs to be fired & its not the same, just errily similar to the lack of focus on that team)

The team isnt playing fast & loose, they are just playing loose. And then sometimes fast.

It goes a long way to explaining the unforced mental errors, the bad tackling, the inability to convert on 3rd/4th & short or make stops on 3rd & 4th.

The Fizz played that game with a ton of intensity, but without ever getting tight. Cats seem to be both unfocused AND tight every time theres a big 'step up' game like UM on the road, like a P5 opponent, like a DSU school the last 2 of 3 times.

[seataccat]

NDSU has me very worried.
If the Cats get their s*** together, they should be able to take down NDSU. However, after the debacle in Missoula I am quite worried. Will the players and coaches respond, or will we see another L to a Dakota school.

I just don't see this team beating NDSU.

The Griz game is the only game this year that if they played well they still probably would’ve lost. MSU hasn’t played a complete game all year IMO mostly due to self-inflicted mistakes. Despite that they’ve blown teams out, simply overwhelmed teams or have barely lost sans UM.

The losses to SDSU and Idaho weren’t games that they were beat, they just lost. Nine false starts in one. Three dropped passes, among other things, in the critical first half in the other.

I don’t think MSU has come close to showing the ability to stay focused for an entire game once this year. They do it for big chunks and it’s good enough. That’s what is maddening about watching them play. Even casual observers and opponent staff and fans have pointed this out. It’s glaring. What percentage of gadget plays have worked this year? Not much of one. A gadget play should work about 90% of time and when it doesn’t it shouldn’t be from not running it correctly. If it is, then players just are focused. But it isn’t just gadget plays where that’s happening. Typically athletes lose focus on good teams because they think good enough not to. You need to be focused and relaxed but if you’re too much of one or the other things go haywire.

I think this is as good an explanation as anything. This is the parallel I was drawing to the 2014 team (no, I don't think Vigne needs to be fired & its not the same, just errily similar to the lack of focus on that team)

The team isnt playing fast & loose, they are just playing loose. And then sometimes fast.

It goes a long way to explaining the unforced mental errors, the bad tackling, the inability to convert on 3rd/4th & short or make stops on 3rd & 4th.

The Fizz played that game with a ton of intensity, but without ever getting tight. Cats seem to be both unfocused AND tight every time theres a big 'step up' game like UM on the road, like a P5 opponent, like a DSU school the last 2 of 3 times.

Every football team on the planet can say that sort of thing. Just wait until we put together our full A game. It hasn't happened yet as Tom says but it's going to this next Saturday. I think the cats are certainly a really good team but they are not better than NDSU this year. I hope I am wrong.

[catatac]

I'm not sure how one could look at the 2023 body of work and determine that NDSU is a better team than MSU, but I suppose it's somewhat a matter of opinion. MSU was a whisker and a questionable all from winning in Brookings, and SDSU beat NDSU by 17. USD also beat NDSU, and finally, UND crushed NDSU. One could say, ya but UM crushed MSU too, which is true... but I think all you can do is look at common opponents. We'll see. Even if you think NDSU is a touchdown better than MSU, Bobcat Stadium is probably worth ten points. Should be a good game.

Regarding the "full game" thing, I think the Cats had a couple games where we were pretty dang close to playing a complete game, solid for most of the game in all three phases. I've seen the Griz do this twice. Hopefully the Cats do it.

[NCagalum]

UC Davis seeing Drake get an auto bid to the playoffs.

LOL! Thought with Poly (a bad team) hanging with them after thumping by Griz and then losing to the Aggies, Davis might get in. Davis defense pounded both of their QBs so both are banged up to some extent. I think UND will take them as they seem to have some home field magic at Alerus.

So I think you guys get UND or USD (probably USD) should you get by NDSU.

Also, Stanford is just not very good, but of course a nice bag for Hornies. Side note: Davis took Stanford down in 2005 when they were still Division 2.

[Prodigal Cat]

I'm not sure how one could look at the 2023 body of work and determine that NDSU is a better team than MSU, but I suppose it's somewhat a matter of opinion. MSU was a whisker and a questionable all from winning in Brookings, and SDSU beat NDSU by 17. USD also beat NDSU, and finally, UND crushed NDSU. One could say, ya but UM crushed MSU too, which is true... but I think all you can do is look at common opponents. We'll see. Even if you think NDSU is a touchdown better than MSU, Bobcat Stadium is probably worth ten points. Should be a good game.

Regarding the "full game" thing, I think the Cats had a couple games where we were pretty dang close to playing a complete game, solid for most of the game in all three phases. I've seen the Griz do this twice. Hopefully the Cats do it.

NDSU got crushed 3 times. Lost at home. Both have 1 ranked win but Bison got theirs at home and Cats got theirs on the road. Along with what you laid out Cats resume is superior by far.