NDSU to FBS almost confirmed?

[MSUBobcat04]

I personally hope that NDSU falls flat on its face. It's at least gratifying that their last year in FCS they didn't make it to the championship game.

Same. They will probably be competitive for the first two years though.

Pretty hilarious to me that the Fargo Dome will be an FBS stadium. There’s no way they get a bigger dome built anytime soon with all the moving up expenses they are paying.

There's 8 FBS stadiums with smaller capacities than the FargoDome, including 2 in the MWC (Hawaii and SJSU). There's 12 more that are 25k or less, including JMU, which just got a bid to the CFP. If NDSU reverts back to selling out the FD, it would have put them as the 5th highest attendance in the MWC in 2025. The FargoDome will continue to be sufficient digs for the foreseeable future.

No FBS stadium with capacity south of 20K is sufficient. SJSU is terrible and they know it, which is why they reduced their capacity when they did renovations. Hawaii is still renovating and expanding their capacity. JMU has the infrastructure to add on. The other 11 you mention aren't good football programs, and I'm fairly certain at least 4 or 5 are recent FCS teams that have no business being FBS. SHSU, Delaware, MO State, Kennesaw State... Then I'm sure you have UMass, also a terrible FBS team. I'd guess the rest are former FCS teams or Sun Belt/CUSA teams that aren't good. Maybe a MAC team or two that nobody cares about. Point being no relevant football program has a small stadium besides JMU.

No relevant football program has a small stadium except the one does. Got it. The capacity of the FD is larger than the average attendance of 36 FBS schools (26.4%), including Texas State which is joining the restructured Pac-12 and just behind USU which is also going to the Pac-12. The FD is plenty sufficient for their move to FBS. No one expects them to become Michigan or Alabama, but potentially becoming JMU (or better) is a very real possibility.

Fargo dome seats less than 19,000 for football. It is hard to believe that any FBS program has a stadium that can’t hold more than 20,000. And building a new stadium today will cost at $100 million. Just from a revenue perspective, any small market team like NDSU is going to have a tough time competing.

More than 1 out of every 4 FBS teams draw less than the Fargo Dome's capacity and are still "competing". Are they expecting to become a P4 overnight? No, of course not. Did a team that moved up very recently, with a fraction of the Bizun's success in the FCS, and plays in a stadium not much bigger than theirs just play in the CFP. Yup. I bet smart people who know a whole lot more about the intricacies of NDSU's financial situation than the armchair accountants may have had the bright idea to factor in where the team plays it's home games.

Not sure those bright accountants care about attendance. Money for league is in TV and streaming revenue.

As an accountant myself, I would say you are wrong. NDSU will undoubtedly earn more from the ticket revenue of 6 home games than they will from their share of the football portion of the media deal. The MWC's new media deal with the CW is reportedly valued at $3.5M per team per year, but that is for ALL sports, with men's and women's basketball games making up, by far, the bulk of the broadcasts. I would suspect their football-only share is $1M or less.

I do not find it hard to believe that NDSU may have a ton of unanswered questions to issues such as seating capacity. Think about the state of college football in general. Just in the past couple of years, the Pac 12 had a mass exodus of teams resulting in upheaval with the MWC and generated multiple lawsuits threatening the stability of both leagues. Teams have pursued questionable conference affiliations where half of their conference games are played on the other side of country. NIL and the portal have created a whole new era of athletic financial challenges.

As for tickets and seating capacity, NDSU is already under pressure for having priced out much of their fan base. I am not sure that squeezing the landlord - or the fan base - is a great strategy to increase revenues. You are correct that the TV deal is of limited value. And NDSU has no alternative options so I would argue that they have little to no leverage with the city of Fargo. My guess is that the bulk of new revenues will come from student fees and maybe growth with enrollment from being FBS. An increase of 1,000 students at $25,000 in tuition is a hefty $25 million in new revenue to the university (not football program). That is significant value to the university.

I disagree that NDSU has priced out much of their fanbase. What I think is happening is they don't feel like it is worth the price of the ticket and all the travel costs to watch blowout after blowout. The price isn't the issue, the product on the field is. Last year, other than the loss to ISU, they only had 1 home game where the margin of victory wasn't AT LEAST 27 points (YSU by eight), with an average of over 31 points. The last few years are getting that way for me with the Bobcats. The fans are so apathetic they didn't even show up for a playoff game, which may have cost them. The administration is obviously betting that having a schedule of tighter games, and dare I say even some regular season losses , will bring the fans back out and drive attendance to its former numbers.

As for student fees, NDSU is very well positioned in that regard. Just 4% of their 2024 revenue came from student fees. At MSU, it is only 8%. For the FCS as a whole, 23% of AD revenue comes from student fees and it's 5% at the FBS level. The MWC (which no longer resembles the 2024 version, but it's what I have to work with) received 8% from student fees.

[SonomaCat]

Good luck to NDSU. I have zero doubt that they will be competitive right away and will probably be near the top of the conference almost every year. This move will bring them more enrollment, more donations, more TV money, and more national attention. They've done amazing things recruiting despite the handicap of being an FCS program, and this move will open the doors for them to bring in that next tier of athletes who desired to be in FBS. Unfortunately, this probably also means they will be one of the programs poaching portal players from places like MSU. I'm not excited about that.

Does history show those like JMU, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Sam Houston have seen enrollment increase. It seems like they have gotten a lot of attention from their dominance and championship runs. Being in a conference with most games in late time slots and one not many watch seems like their exposure could go down,at least in areas that would likely help recruiting, enrollment etc. TV money will be spent on coaching, scholarships, and needed facility improvements

I just picked a few that have made the change long ago enough to have the full impact of the move baked into the numbers. Obviously, lots of other factors are involved as well.

Boise State - 1995 18.599
Boise State - 2025 28,519

Nevada - 1991 11,714
Nevada - 2025 20,945

App State - 2013 17,838
App State - 2025 21,798

Georgia Southern - 2013 20,516
Georgia Southern - 2025 29,633

Coastal Carolina - 2016 10,479
Coastal Carolina - 2025 11,900

Georgia State - 2012 32,087
Georgia State - 2025 53,144

If UND doesn't move up as well, I could see them (and probably other regional FCS schools) losing a chunk of their enrollment to NDSU simply due to the perception that it is a higher profile school. It may not happen in year 1, but over time that will become stronger and stronger.

If we had a scenario where MSU moved up and UM did not, it would devastate UM's enrollment (even further) and in-state recruiting (even further). It would also likely boost the out-of-state student recruiting for MSU. But the BOR will likely never let that happen.

Anecdotally, we are starting up campus tours for our son. Even though I'm an FCS kid, the only schools I'd encourage him to look at that aren't FBS are MSU, Davis (wife's alma mater), or Cal Poly. Everything else is FBS only ... simply because I have such a bias based on the perception of what is a "big time" school vs. what is not. FBS is great marketing.

[Montanabob]

Same. They will probably be competitive for the first two years though.

Pretty hilarious to me that the Fargo Dome will be an FBS stadium. There’s no way they get a bigger dome built anytime soon with all the moving up expenses they are paying.

There's 8 FBS stadiums with smaller capacities than the FargoDome, including 2 in the MWC (Hawaii and SJSU). There's 12 more that are 25k or less, including JMU, which just got a bid to the CFP. If NDSU reverts back to selling out the FD, it would have put them as the 5th highest attendance in the MWC in 2025. The FargoDome will continue to be sufficient digs for the foreseeable future.

No FBS stadium with capacity south of 20K is sufficient. SJSU is terrible and they know it, which is why they reduced their capacity when they did renovations. Hawaii is still renovating and expanding their capacity. JMU has the infrastructure to add on. The other 11 you mention aren't good football programs, and I'm fairly certain at least 4 or 5 are recent FCS teams that have no business being FBS. SHSU, Delaware, MO State, Kennesaw State... Then I'm sure you have UMass, also a terrible FBS team. I'd guess the rest are former FCS teams or Sun Belt/CUSA teams that aren't good. Maybe a MAC team or two that nobody cares about. Point being no relevant football program has a small stadium besides JMU.

No relevant football program has a small stadium except the one does. Got it. The capacity of the FD is larger than the average attendance of 36 FBS schools (26.4%), including Texas State which is joining the restructured Pac-12 and just behind USU which is also going to the Pac-12. The FD is plenty sufficient for their move to FBS. No one expects them to become Michigan or Alabama, but potentially becoming JMU (or better) is a very real possibility.

Fargo dome seats less than 19,000 for football. It is hard to believe that any FBS program has a stadium that can’t hold more than 20,000. And building a new stadium today will cost at $100 million. Just from a revenue perspective, any small market team like NDSU is going to have a tough time competing.

More than 1 out of every 4 FBS teams draw less than the Fargo Dome's capacity and are still "competing". Are they expecting to become a P4 overnight? No, of course not. Did a team that moved up very recently, with a fraction of the Bizun's success in the FCS, and plays in a stadium not much bigger than theirs just play in the CFP. Yup. I bet smart people who know a whole lot more about the intricacies of NDSU's financial situation than the armchair accountants may have had the bright idea to factor in where the team plays it's home games.

Not sure those bright accountants care about attendance. Money for league is in TV and streaming revenue.

As an accountant myself, I would say you are wrong. NDSU will undoubtedly earn more from the ticket revenue of 6 home games than they will from their share of the football portion of the media deal. The MWC's new media deal with the CW is reportedly valued at $3.5M per team per year, but that is for ALL sports, with men's and women's basketball games making up, by far, the bulk of the broadcasts. I would suspect their football-only share is $1M or less.

I would like you back up the statement on ticket sales as NDSU doesnt own the fargo dome.

I mean.... common sense and/or Google could have gotten you the info. In 2023, NDSU was second only to Montana in ticket sales with just shy of $6M (https://knightnewhousedata.org/fcs/nort ... university). This is all sports, but that year they had MBB attendance of just 25,388 (https://www.ncaa.org/sports/2013/11/27/ ... dance.aspx). Tickets to their Feb. 21 game against Kansas City are $25 for lower level sideline and $16 for lower level end court, so ignoring that GA are just $6, let's conservatively assume average ticket price of $20 for those 2023 tickets. Men's BB ticket sales brought in under $508k. Women's BB had attendance of just 6,921, with ticket prices for an upcoming game being sold for $20 and $12, respectively. Again assuming an even split, but ignoring any GA sales, that's $16/ticket for gross revenue of just $111k. Most other sports have almost no appreciable ticket revenue, which gives us a reasonable estimate of about $5M in ticket sales coming from football alone ($5.9M total less $508k MBB less $111k WBB less $281k for all other sports).

Yeah. You must a lawyer and not an accountant. From 2023:

West Fargo Horace's Jordan Christofferson on picking up her 1,000th career point in the Hawks' win over Fargo Davies

“Really a lot of things that we’ve heard from fans that they struggle with at games, this renovation addresses,” Larsen said.

The renovation with the current dome addresses enhanced seating areas, more bathrooms, more concourse space and better food and beverage spaces and options. The estimated $140 million project that will have to be approved by Fargo voters on Dec. 5 includes a $50 million convention center that will be connected to the main arena.

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“People don’t consume games the way they did years ago,” Larsen said. “Back in the day sitting at Dacotah Field on the bleachers and watching the game, well, times have changed.”

They’ve changed, Larsen said, in favor of more premium seating areas and club and pregame hospitality space.

The project will not increase the capacity of the 18,760-seat venue that can go over 19,000 with standing-room capability. It was built in 1992 when NDSU was a Division II school and that kind of capacity wasn’t needed until the Bison moved to Division I FCS football beginning in 2004.

“It’s about having a different experience at the Fargodome,” Larsen said. “It’s been the same experience for 30 years.”

What if NDSU made another move up, this time from FCS to FBS? Would that capacity suffice? That’s debatable but figures show the Bison would be comparable, if not bigger, than a lot of Group of Five FBS programs.



If the Bison were in the Mountain West Conference last season, a sold-out Fargodome would have put them ahead of five of the 12 teams in the league in attendance and almost on par with the University of Wyoming, which averaged 19,707 fans. The leader in the Mountain West was Fresno State, which averaged 38,115. Air Force, Colorado State, San Diego State and UNLV all averaged in the low- to mid-20,000 for fans.

It would be a bit tougher to measure up if NDSU were to be accepted into the 13-team American Athletic Conference. A sold-out dome would only top Charlotte and Temple in attendance, but would be in the same ballpark as Rice (19,011), North Texas (19,025), Florida Atlantic (20,679), Tulane (21,581) and Alabama-Birmingham (23,058).

East Carolina is the drawing card in that league averaging 41,372 fans last season. South Florida (31,521) and Navy (30,973) were the other schools over 30,000.

Perhaps the only other possibility would be the Mid-American Conference, of which there has been little speculation that the league would consider NDSU and whether the Bison would consider the MAC. But for Group of Five attendance comparisons, a sold-out dome would be second in attendance in the MAC’s West Division just behind Toledo, which averaged 19,557 fans last season.

The Bison averaged 15,687 fans last season, its lowest since averaging 14,160 in 2005. Yet, that would still rank ahead of Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Ball State and Northern Illinois and just a couple of hundred behind Central Michigan.

With a country wide trend of lower college football attendance, Larsen said he believes the NCAA is on its way to removing any kind of minimum seating requirements for Division I football.

“If anything I think they’re looking at greater levels of financial investment,” Larsen said. “That’s not indicative of how many seats you have or how many people are coming to your games, so I don’t see that as an impediment for us. The biggest thing is when you have more seats, you have more inventory opportunities to generate more revenue and the fact there’s premium spaces in here gives us that opportunity.”



Moreover, better fan amenities could pave the way for more revenue generating opportunities for both the university and the city.

NDSU pays the dome a $165,000 annual rental fee, per the last contract. The two parties share advertising and suite revenue with the Dome Authority getting 80% and NDSU 20%. With concessions, the university receives 15% of gross receipts until NDSU realizes $30,000 in revenue per year.

After that, NDSU receives 10% in excess of the $30K. City leaders made a point this week of addressing long lines in concessions, not just at football games but high attendance events like concerts.

[MSUBobcat04]

There's 8 FBS stadiums with smaller capacities than the FargoDome, including 2 in the MWC (Hawaii and SJSU). There's 12 more that are 25k or less, including JMU, which just got a bid to the CFP. If NDSU reverts back to selling out the FD, it would have put them as the 5th highest attendance in the MWC in 2025. The FargoDome will continue to be sufficient digs for the foreseeable future.

No FBS stadium with capacity south of 20K is sufficient. SJSU is terrible and they know it, which is why they reduced their capacity when they did renovations. Hawaii is still renovating and expanding their capacity. JMU has the infrastructure to add on. The other 11 you mention aren't good football programs, and I'm fairly certain at least 4 or 5 are recent FCS teams that have no business being FBS. SHSU, Delaware, MO State, Kennesaw State... Then I'm sure you have UMass, also a terrible FBS team. I'd guess the rest are former FCS teams or Sun Belt/CUSA teams that aren't good. Maybe a MAC team or two that nobody cares about. Point being no relevant football program has a small stadium besides JMU.

No relevant football program has a small stadium except the one does. Got it. The capacity of the FD is larger than the average attendance of 36 FBS schools (26.4%), including Texas State which is joining the restructured Pac-12 and just behind USU which is also going to the Pac-12. The FD is plenty sufficient for their move to FBS. No one expects them to become Michigan or Alabama, but potentially becoming JMU (or better) is a very real possibility.

Fargo dome seats less than 19,000 for football. It is hard to believe that any FBS program has a stadium that can’t hold more than 20,000. And building a new stadium today will cost at $100 million. Just from a revenue perspective, any small market team like NDSU is going to have a tough time competing.

More than 1 out of every 4 FBS teams draw less than the Fargo Dome's capacity and are still "competing". Are they expecting to become a P4 overnight? No, of course not. Did a team that moved up very recently, with a fraction of the Bizun's success in the FCS, and plays in a stadium not much bigger than theirs just play in the CFP. Yup. I bet smart people who know a whole lot more about the intricacies of NDSU's financial situation than the armchair accountants may have had the bright idea to factor in where the team plays it's home games.

Not sure those bright accountants care about attendance. Money for league is in TV and streaming revenue.

As an accountant myself, I would say you are wrong. NDSU will undoubtedly earn more from the ticket revenue of 6 home games than they will from their share of the football portion of the media deal. The MWC's new media deal with the CW is reportedly valued at $3.5M per team per year, but that is for ALL sports, with men's and women's basketball games making up, by far, the bulk of the broadcasts. I would suspect their football-only share is $1M or less.

I would like you back up the statement on ticket sales as NDSU doesnt own the fargo dome.

I mean.... common sense and/or Google could have gotten you the info. In 2023, NDSU was second only to Montana in ticket sales with just shy of $6M (https://knightnewhousedata.org/fcs/nort ... university). This is all sports, but that year they had MBB attendance of just 25,388 (https://www.ncaa.org/sports/2013/11/27/ ... dance.aspx). Tickets to their Feb. 21 game against Kansas City are $25 for lower level sideline and $16 for lower level end court, so ignoring that GA are just $6, let's conservatively assume average ticket price of $20 for those 2023 tickets. Men's BB ticket sales brought in under $508k. Women's BB had attendance of just 6,921, with ticket prices for an upcoming game being sold for $20 and $12, respectively. Again assuming an even split, but ignoring any GA sales, that's $16/ticket for gross revenue of just $111k. Most other sports have almost no appreciable ticket revenue, which gives us a reasonable estimate of about $5M in ticket sales coming from football alone ($5.9M total less $508k MBB less $111k WBB less $281k for all other sports).

Yeah. You must a lawyer and not an accountant. From 2023:

West Fargo Horace's Jordan Christofferson on picking up her 1,000th career point in the Hawks' win over Fargo Davies

“Really a lot of things that we’ve heard from fans that they struggle with at games, this renovation addresses,” Larsen said.

The renovation with the current dome addresses enhanced seating areas, more bathrooms, more concourse space and better food and beverage spaces and options. The estimated $140 million project that will have to be approved by Fargo voters on Dec. 5 includes a $50 million convention center that will be connected to the main arena.

Related coverage
082223.N.FF.FARGODOME 1
City eyes new sales tax, lodging tax to fund Fargodome expansion, conference center
Aug 22, 2023
121722.S.FF.NDSUfootball
Proposed $140 million Fargodome project could significantly impact Bison football fans
Aug 22, 2023
082223.N.FF.FARGODOME 1
McFeely: 'Yes' to the Fargodome renovations, just out of civic pride
Aug 23, 2023
City-+-Dome-authority-meeting.3.jpg
Letter: The Fargodome expansion is an exciting idea, but it needs to be done properly
Aug 23, 2023
“People don’t consume games the way they did years ago,” Larsen said. “Back in the day sitting at Dacotah Field on the bleachers and watching the game, well, times have changed.”

They’ve changed, Larsen said, in favor of more premium seating areas and club and pregame hospitality space.

The project will not increase the capacity of the 18,760-seat venue that can go over 19,000 with standing-room capability. It was built in 1992 when NDSU was a Division II school and that kind of capacity wasn’t needed until the Bison moved to Division I FCS football beginning in 2004.

“It’s about having a different experience at the Fargodome,” Larsen said. “It’s been the same experience for 30 years.”

What if NDSU made another move up, this time from FCS to FBS? Would that capacity suffice? That’s debatable but figures show the Bison would be comparable, if not bigger, than a lot of Group of Five FBS programs.



If the Bison were in the Mountain West Conference last season, a sold-out Fargodome would have put them ahead of five of the 12 teams in the league in attendance and almost on par with the University of Wyoming, which averaged 19,707 fans. The leader in the Mountain West was Fresno State, which averaged 38,115. Air Force, Colorado State, San Diego State and UNLV all averaged in the low- to mid-20,000 for fans.

It would be a bit tougher to measure up if NDSU were to be accepted into the 13-team American Athletic Conference. A sold-out dome would only top Charlotte and Temple in attendance, but would be in the same ballpark as Rice (19,011), North Texas (19,025), Florida Atlantic (20,679), Tulane (21,581) and Alabama-Birmingham (23,058).

East Carolina is the drawing card in that league averaging 41,372 fans last season. South Florida (31,521) and Navy (30,973) were the other schools over 30,000.

Perhaps the only other possibility would be the Mid-American Conference, of which there has been little speculation that the league would consider NDSU and whether the Bison would consider the MAC. But for Group of Five attendance comparisons, a sold-out dome would be second in attendance in the MAC’s West Division just behind Toledo, which averaged 19,557 fans last season.

The Bison averaged 15,687 fans last season, its lowest since averaging 14,160 in 2005. Yet, that would still rank ahead of Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Ball State and Northern Illinois and just a couple of hundred behind Central Michigan.

With a country wide trend of lower college football attendance, Larsen said he believes the NCAA is on its way to removing any kind of minimum seating requirements for Division I football.

“If anything I think they’re looking at greater levels of financial investment,” Larsen said. “That’s not indicative of how many seats you have or how many people are coming to your games, so I don’t see that as an impediment for us. The biggest thing is when you have more seats, you have more inventory opportunities to generate more revenue and the fact there’s premium spaces in here gives us that opportunity.”



Moreover, better fan amenities could pave the way for more revenue generating opportunities for both the university and the city.

NDSU pays the dome a $165,000 annual rental fee, per the last contract. The two parties share advertising and suite revenue with the Dome Authority getting 80% and NDSU 20%. With concessions, the university receives 15% of gross receipts until NDSU realizes $30,000 in revenue per year.

After that, NDSU receives 10% in excess of the $30K. City leaders made a point this week of addressing long lines in concessions, not just at football games but high attendance events like concerts.

You asked to see that NDSU does get ticket revenue even though they don't own the building. I showed that they do (over $5M in 2023, conservatively). Then you post an article showing how NDSU's attendance is pretty comparable to many other G6 schools. Not sure what you're trying to prove with this.