Super Brawl - A Statistical Deep Dive

[Robert Martin]

I thought we were the better team, but after putting this together, it's not even a question! The game still has to be played, but seeing as we have outplayed them in nearly every statistal category against an objectively harder schedule, and beat them head to head at their place 3 weeks ago, I am shocked that the Griz fans are so confident due to the fact UM eliminated 2 8-4 teams that were "meh" this year(both outside the top 10 EOY), at home, in a place nobody wins except for the Cats. All of a sudden, UM is the "hottest" team in football despite MSU's FCS leading 12 game win streak...

Cats have to show up on Saturday, Griz aren't bad by any means, but the delusional, arrogant fans on their end are pissing me off right now

There have been a lot of great reasoning on here, and this may summarize it the best

[hilinegrizfan]

A close game is possible

A cat blowout is possible

a griz blowout is possible

anyone saying they know what is going to happen is a fool. These are two great teams. I just sincerely hope that there are no officiating screwups, against EITHER team. A bad call that determines the outcome of the game, would be a huge bummer.

[tetoncat]

Cats have had to battle and prevailed against some tough teams. All games Griz had to battle back in and won were average teams at best

[BlueAndGoldNation]

A Comparison of Wins Against End of Season Top 25 Teams(Including Playoffs)

Here is a comparison of MSU vs UM in "real" top 25 wins that can be confirmed with the End of Regular Season top 25 rankings. For example, NAU was ranked #13 when they played MSU, now they are 7-5 and not ranked. Idaho was ranked ranked #8 when they played UM, now they are 4-8 and not ranked. Both wins don't count for either team in this comparison.

--MSU--wins against #3 UM, #10 SFA, #11 UCD, #24 YALE
-(4 total, 1 Away, 3 Home, 2 top 10)
-All 4 of those wins were the last 4 games for the Cats, with a couple of those wins in the top 10...
-Average Margin of Victory for these Wins - 12.0

--UM-- wins against #12 USD, #16 SDSU, #19 UND
-(3 total, 0 Away, 3 Home, no top 10)
-Wins against #16 and #12 these last 2 weeks, #19 back in Week2.
-Average Margin of Victory for these Wins - 17.3
-Interesting note, the Griz never got a true top 10 win this season, as Idaho fell off, and UND finished 7-5 and ranked #19

Questions

This is a question for @Colter_Nuanez if he has time, or anyone who wants to chime in from either side. I'm being real here, not facetious... Who is more battle tested as of late? Who has faced a tougher task the last 4 weeks? Is the narrative of MSU "struggling" and UM "dominating" actually fair? And if so, would you rather be "peaking" right now, or have the ability to grow and "improve" given there are potentially 2 games left...


Analysis


To me, I think the Cats have been tested by great teams these last four weeks, each of them bringing a completely new challenge.
- (UC Davis - duel threat QB)
- (Montana - Explosive Offense/Hostile Atmosphere)
- (Yale - Physicality/Coaching)
- (SFA - Top 10 Defense/Explosive Offense)
They survived all tests, regardless of how they got it done. All four of these teams were physical, ranked in the top 25 , and 2 of them were top 10 wins. Is MSU slowing down late in the year? Especially after these last 4 weeks of physically demanding games? Maybe. But I see it in a different way...

Maybe MSU's playoff competition was just overlooked by people when the brackets came out. They were dismissed by many as "weaker" by myself, MSU fans, UM fans, and media. Could it be that MSU just struggled against good teams that showed up to play and had the talent to match MSU's physicality?

It's rare, but this year, the MVC's collective "2nd bests" versus the Southland and Ivy's "best" could be a legitimate debate on who is tougher. The MVC is a tougher conference top to bottom no question, but Yale and SFA has had two historically great years for their programs, producing a combined 11 All-Americans and setting several school win records. In contrast, USD and SDSU had one of their worst years in 5 years. I don't think that aspect has been talked about enough. USD dominated Mercer, sure; but Mercer, similarly to Sac State, has proven in the past they cannot hang with the big boys in the postseason, getting blown out every second round matchup they have been too. For their standards, the MVC has had a bad showing in the playoffs this year, with the exception being a surging Illinois State team that seems capable of doing anything after beating the NDSU juggernauts and becoming immortalized.

UM dominated two of the MVC "2nd bests", and deserve massive credit in handling their business in style. Before the games were played, most people thought the SD schools would put up more of a fight against UM. In retrospect, was that just due to their reputation of postseason success, masking their 8-4 regular season record? I just think people might be reading too heavily into MSU's "struggles" and UM's "dominance" these last two weeks. Especially when looking back at the seasons that got them to where they are now. To me, this year's playoffs have been amazing for the FCS! You never know what is going to happen anymore. All bets are off, and that's what makes me excited, yet very nervous as a Cat's fan!

[GoldstoneCat]

A Comparison of Wins Against End of Season Top 25 Teams(Including Playoffs)

Here is a comparison of MSU vs UM in "real" top 25 wins that can be confirmed with the End of Regular Season top 25 rankings. For example, NAU was ranked #13 when they played MSU, now they are 7-5 and not ranked. Idaho was ranked ranked #8 when they played UM, now they are 4-8 and not ranked. Both wins don't count for either team in this comparison.

--MSU--wins against #3 UM, #10 SFA, #11 UCD, #24 YALE
-(4 total, 1 Away, 3 Home, 2 top 10)
-All 4 of those wins were the last 4 games for the Cats, with a couple of those wins in the top 10...
-Average Margin of Victory for these Wins - 12.0

--UM-- wins against #12 USD, #16 SDSU, #19 UND
-(3 total, 0 Away, 3 Home, no top 10)
-Wins against #16 and #12 these last 2 weeks, #19 back in Week2.
-Average Margin of Victory for these Wins - 17.3
-Interesting note, the Griz never got a true top 10 win this season, as Idaho fell off, and UND finished 7-5 and ranked #19

Questions

This is a question for @Colter_Nuanez if he has time, or anyone who wants to chime in from either side. I'm being real here, not facetious... Who is more battle tested as of late? Who has faced a tougher task the last 4 weeks? Is the narrative of MSU "struggling" and UM "dominating" actually fair? And if so, would you rather be "peaking" right now, or have the ability to grow and "improve" given there are potentially 2 games left...


Analysis


To me, I think the Cats have been tested by great teams these last four weeks, each of them bringing a completely new challenge.
- (UC Davis - duel threat QB)
- (Montana - Explosive Offense/Hostile Atmosphere)
- (Yale - Physicality/Coaching)
- (SFA - Top 10 Defense/Explosive Offense)
They survived all tests, regardless of how they got it done. All four of these teams were physical, ranked in the top 25 , and 2 of them were top 10 wins. Is MSU slowing down late in the year? Especially after these last 4 weeks of physically demanding games? Maybe. But I see it in a different way...

Maybe MSU's playoff competition was just overlooked by people when the brackets came out. They were dismissed by many as "weaker" by myself, MSU fans, UM fans, and media. Could it be that MSU just struggled against good teams that showed up to play and had the talent to match MSU's physicality?

It's rare, but this year, the MVC's collective "2nd bests" versus the Southland and Ivy's "best" could be a legitimate debate on who is tougher. The MVC is a tougher conference top to bottom no question, but Yale and SFA has had two historically great years for their programs, producing a combined 11 All-Americans and setting several school win records. In contrast, USD and SDSU had one of their worst years in 5 years. I don't think that aspect has been talked about enough. USD dominated Mercer, sure; but Mercer, similarly to Sac State, has proven in the past they cannot hang with the big boys in the postseason, getting blown out every second round matchup they have been too. For their standards, the MVC has had a bad showing in the playoffs this year, with the exception being a surging Illinois State team that seems capable of doing anything after beating the NDSU juggernauts and becoming immortalized.

UM dominated two of the MVC "2nd bests", and deserve massive credit in handling their business in style. Before the games were played, most people thought the SD schools would put up more of a fight against UM. In retrospect, was that just due to their reputation of postseason success, masking their 8-4 regular season record? I just think people might be reading too heavily into MSU's "struggles" and UM's "dominance" these last two weeks. Especially when looking back at the seasons that got them to where they are now. To me, this year's playoffs have been amazing for the FCS! You never know what is going to happen anymore. All bets are off, and that's what makes me excited, yet very nervous as a Cat's fan!

The win in Missoula was a top 3 win in the country this year. I thought it was arguably the best win and then Illinois state did their thing. The narratives emerging out of Missoula from that game were just so much cope. Imo they were fortunate that game was not at least a 10 point spread, if not more. But just on the final drive alone, on the pass call on first down where Lamson got sacked, taco was 1 on 1 with no safety over the top and would have hit his head on the goal post if Lamson had thrown it. We also could have run the football clear to Ovando on that last drive. The "cats got lucky" bit is just a laugher.
The griz have done well at home the past 2 weeks, no doubt. USD was not a great football team, and overachieved to get to the QF. SDSU was still injured and out of gas, and missed some opportunities to stay right in what was a 1 score game in the 3Q. The Griz deserve credit for ultimately avalanching those teams but we would have done the same, imo.
The risks for us are real, no doubt. They're good enough to beat us, and even run us off the field if we don't play well. But if we play to our top level, at home, don't be surprised if this game ends up not that close.

[Robert Martin]

A close game is possible

A cat blowout is possible

a griz blowout is possible

anyone saying they know what is going to happen is a fool. These are two great teams. I just sincerely hope that there are no officiating screwups, against EITHER team. A bad call that determines the outcome of the game, would be a huge bummer.

There are a lot of plays in a game. Blaming a ref for the outcome of game is loser mentality. Complain about a missed block, dropped pass, bad defense or offensive call. The officials are not looking at the game from above, where they can see the field better, like you. They are down at eye level with 22 large men, running around them, some very fast and making decisions quickly. They don’t get to see every play over and over from different angles and them make a decision.

Champions don’t make excuses. Champions blame themselves, and find away make themselves better.

[Colter_Nuanez]

A Comparison of Wins Against End of Season Top 25 Teams(Including Playoffs)

Here is a comparison of MSU vs UM in "real" top 25 wins that can be confirmed with the End of Regular Season top 25 rankings. For example, NAU was ranked #13 when they played MSU, now they are 7-5 and not ranked. Idaho was ranked ranked #8 when they played UM, now they are 4-8 and not ranked. Both wins don't count for either team in this comparison.

--MSU--wins against #3 UM, #10 SFA, #11 UCD, #24 YALE
-(4 total, 1 Away, 3 Home, 2 top 10)
-All 4 of those wins were the last 4 games for the Cats, with a couple of those wins in the top 10...
-Average Margin of Victory for these Wins - 12.0

--UM-- wins against #12 USD, #16 SDSU, #19 UND
-(3 total, 0 Away, 3 Home, no top 10)
-Wins against #16 and #12 these last 2 weeks, #19 back in Week2.
-Average Margin of Victory for these Wins - 17.3
-Interesting note, the Griz never got a true top 10 win this season, as Idaho fell off, and UND finished 7-5 and ranked #19

Questions

This is a question for @Colter_Nuanez if he has time, or anyone who wants to chime in from either side. I'm being real here, not facetious... Who is more battle tested as of late? Who has faced a tougher task the last 4 weeks? Is the narrative of MSU "struggling" and UM "dominating" actually fair? And if so, would you rather be "peaking" right now, or have the ability to grow and "improve" given there are potentially 2 games left...


Analysis


To me, I think the Cats have been tested by great teams these last four weeks, each of them bringing a completely new challenge.
- (UC Davis - duel threat QB)
- (Montana - Explosive Offense/Hostile Atmosphere)
- (Yale - Physicality/Coaching)
- (SFA - Top 10 Defense/Explosive Offense)
They survived all tests, regardless of how they got it done. All four of these teams were physical, ranked in the top 25 , and 2 of them were top 10 wins. Is MSU slowing down late in the year? Especially after these last 4 weeks of physically demanding games? Maybe. But I see it in a different way...

Maybe MSU's playoff competition was just overlooked by people when the brackets came out. They were dismissed by many as "weaker" by myself, MSU fans, UM fans, and media. Could it be that MSU just struggled against good teams that showed up to play and had the talent to match MSU's physicality?

It's rare, but this year, the MVC's collective "2nd bests" versus the Southland and Ivy's "best" could be a legitimate debate on who is tougher. The MVC is a tougher conference top to bottom no question, but Yale and SFA has had two historically great years for their programs, producing a combined 11 All-Americans and setting several school win records. In contrast, USD and SDSU had one of their worst years in 5 years. I don't think that aspect has been talked about enough. USD dominated Mercer, sure; but Mercer, similarly to Sac State, has proven in the past they cannot hang with the big boys in the postseason, getting blown out every second round matchup they have been too. For their standards, the MVC has had a bad showing in the playoffs this year, with the exception being a surging Illinois State team that seems capable of doing anything after beating the NDSU juggernauts and becoming immortalized.

UM dominated two of the MVC "2nd bests", and deserve massive credit in handling their business in style. Before the games were played, most people thought the SD schools would put up more of a fight against UM. In retrospect, was that just due to their reputation of postseason success, masking their 8-4 regular season record? I just think people might be reading too heavily into MSU's "struggles" and UM's "dominance" these last two weeks. Especially when looking back at the seasons that got them to where they are now. To me, this year's playoffs have been amazing for the FCS! You never know what is going to happen anymore. All bets are off, and that's what makes me excited, yet very nervous as a Cat's fan!

Sorry, was in the wrong spot, hard to read...

I asked three different co-hosts/guests over the last two days "what if South Dakota just sucks?" haha. The Griz have played well since Brawl 1.0. They also might've just blown the doors off two mediocre teams. I was not impressed with South Dakota at all. I said on the radio my pregame prediction was 48-10. So 52-22 was actually South Dakota doing better than I expected haha.

[technoCat]

A Comparison of Wins Against End of Season Top 25 Teams(Including Playoffs)

Here is a comparison of MSU vs UM in "real" top 25 wins that can be confirmed with the End of Regular Season top 25 rankings. For example, NAU was ranked #13 when they played MSU, now they are 7-5 and not ranked. Idaho was ranked ranked #8 when they played UM, now they are 4-8 and not ranked. Both wins don't count for either team in this comparison.

--MSU--wins against #3 UM, #10 SFA, #11 UCD, #24 YALE
-(4 total, 1 Away, 3 Home, 2 top 10)
-All 4 of those wins were the last 4 games for the Cats, with a couple of those wins in the top 10...
-Average Margin of Victory for these Wins - 12.0

--UM-- wins against #12 USD, #16 SDSU, #19 UND
-(3 total, 0 Away, 3 Home, no top 10)
-Wins against #16 and #12 these last 2 weeks, #19 back in Week2.
-Average Margin of Victory for these Wins - 17.3
-Interesting note, the Griz never got a true top 10 win this season, as Idaho fell off, and UND finished 7-5 and ranked #19

Questions

This is a question for @Colter_Nuanez if he has time, or anyone who wants to chime in from either side. I'm being real here, not facetious... Who is more battle tested as of late? Who has faced a tougher task the last 4 weeks? Is the narrative of MSU "struggling" and UM "dominating" actually fair? And if so, would you rather be "peaking" right now, or have the ability to grow and "improve" given there are potentially 2 games left...


Analysis

I asked three different co-hosts/guests over the last two days "what if South Dakota just sucks?" haha. The Griz have played well since Brawl 1.0. They also might've just blown the doors off two mediocre teams. I was not impressed with South Dakota at all. I said on the radio my pregame prediction was 48-10. So 52-22 was actually South Dakota doing better than I expected haha.

To me, I think the Cats have been tested by great teams these last four weeks, each of them bringing a completely new challenge.
- (UC Davis - duel threat QB)
- (Montana - Explosive Offense/Hostile Atmosphere)
- (Yale - Physicality/Coaching)
- (SFA - Top 10 Defense/Explosive Offense)
They survived all tests, regardless of how they got it done. All four of these teams were physical, ranked in the top 25 , and 2 of them were top 10 wins. Is MSU slowing down late in the year? Especially after these last 4 weeks of physically demanding games? Maybe. But I see it in a different way...

Maybe MSU's playoff competition was just overlooked by people when the brackets came out. They were dismissed by many as "weaker" by myself, MSU fans, UM fans, and media. Could it be that MSU just struggled against good teams that showed up to play and had the talent to match MSU's physicality?

It's rare, but this year, the MVC's collective "2nd bests" versus the Southland and Ivy's "best" could be a legitimate debate on who is tougher. The MVC is a tougher conference top to bottom no question, but Yale and SFA has had two historically great years for their programs, producing a combined 11 All-Americans and setting several school win records. In contrast, USD and SDSU had one of their worst years in 5 years. I don't think that aspect has been talked about enough. USD dominated Mercer, sure; but Mercer, similarly to Sac State, has proven in the past they cannot hang with the big boys in the postseason, getting blown out every second round matchup they have been too. For their standards, the MVC has had a bad showing in the playoffs this year, with the exception being a surging Illinois State team that seems capable of doing anything after beating the NDSU juggernauts and becoming immortalized.

UM dominated two of the MVC "2nd bests", and deserve massive credit in handling their business in style. Before the games were played, most people thought the SD schools would put up more of a fight against UM. In retrospect, was that just due to their reputation of postseason success, masking their 8-4 regular season record? I just think people might be reading too heavily into MSU's "struggles" and UM's "dominance" these last two weeks. Especially when looking back at the seasons that got them to where they are now. To me, this year's playoffs have been amazing for the FCS! You never know what is going to happen anymore. All bets are off, and that's what makes me excited, yet very nervous as a Cat's fan!

I just thought USD looked utterly unprepared for the game. Like they didn't watch any film or do any research and just thought they were going to come in and roll because they are from the mighty MVFC. Or like they just didn't think they could win and were happy to be there.

[BelligerentBobcat]

A Comparison of Wins Against End of Season Top 25 Teams(Including Playoffs)

Here is a comparison of MSU vs UM in "real" top 25 wins that can be confirmed with the End of Regular Season top 25 rankings. For example, NAU was ranked #13 when they played MSU, now they are 7-5 and not ranked. Idaho was ranked ranked #8 when they played UM, now they are 4-8 and not ranked. Both wins don't count for either team in this comparison.

--MSU--wins against #3 UM, #10 SFA, #11 UCD, #24 YALE
-(4 total, 1 Away, 3 Home, 2 top 10)
-All 4 of those wins were the last 4 games for the Cats, with a couple of those wins in the top 10...
-Average Margin of Victory for these Wins - 12.0

--UM-- wins against #12 USD, #16 SDSU, #19 UND
-(3 total, 0 Away, 3 Home, no top 10)
-Wins against #16 and #12 these last 2 weeks, #19 back in Week2.
-Average Margin of Victory for these Wins - 17.3
-Interesting note, the Griz never got a true top 10 win this season, as Idaho fell off, and UND finished 7-5 and ranked #19

Questions

This is a question for @Colter_Nuanez if he has time, or anyone who wants to chime in from either side. I'm being real here, not facetious... Who is more battle tested as of late? Who has faced a tougher task the last 4 weeks? Is the narrative of MSU "struggling" and UM "dominating" actually fair? And if so, would you rather be "peaking" right now, or have the ability to grow and "improve" given there are potentially 2 games left...


Analysis

I asked three different co-hosts/guests over the last two days "what if South Dakota just sucks?" haha. The Griz have played well since Brawl 1.0. They also might've just blown the doors off two mediocre teams. I was not impressed with South Dakota at all. I said on the radio my pregame prediction was 48-10. So 52-22 was actually South Dakota doing better than I expected haha.

To me, I think the Cats have been tested by great teams these last four weeks, each of them bringing a completely new challenge.
- (UC Davis - duel threat QB)
- (Montana - Explosive Offense/Hostile Atmosphere)
- (Yale - Physicality/Coaching)
- (SFA - Top 10 Defense/Explosive Offense)
They survived all tests, regardless of how they got it done. All four of these teams were physical, ranked in the top 25 , and 2 of them were top 10 wins. Is MSU slowing down late in the year? Especially after these last 4 weeks of physically demanding games? Maybe. But I see it in a different way...

Maybe MSU's playoff competition was just overlooked by people when the brackets came out. They were dismissed by many as "weaker" by myself, MSU fans, UM fans, and media. Could it be that MSU just struggled against good teams that showed up to play and had the talent to match MSU's physicality?

It's rare, but this year, the MVC's collective "2nd bests" versus the Southland and Ivy's "best" could be a legitimate debate on who is tougher. The MVC is a tougher conference top to bottom no question, but Yale and SFA has had two historically great years for their programs, producing a combined 11 All-Americans and setting several school win records. In contrast, USD and SDSU had one of their worst years in 5 years. I don't think that aspect has been talked about enough. USD dominated Mercer, sure; but Mercer, similarly to Sac State, has proven in the past they cannot hang with the big boys in the postseason, getting blown out every second round matchup they have been too. For their standards, the MVC has had a bad showing in the playoffs this year, with the exception being a surging Illinois State team that seems capable of doing anything after beating the NDSU juggernauts and becoming immortalized.

UM dominated two of the MVC "2nd bests", and deserve massive credit in handling their business in style. Before the games were played, most people thought the SD schools would put up more of a fight against UM. In retrospect, was that just due to their reputation of postseason success, masking their 8-4 regular season record? I just think people might be reading too heavily into MSU's "struggles" and UM's "dominance" these last two weeks. Especially when looking back at the seasons that got them to where they are now. To me, this year's playoffs have been amazing for the FCS! You never know what is going to happen anymore. All bets are off, and that's what makes me excited, yet very nervous as a Cat's fan!

I just thought USD looked utterly unprepared for the game. Like they didn't watch any film or do any research and just thought they were going to come in and roll because they are from the mighty MVFC. Or like they just didn't think they could win and were happy to be there.

I really think we underestimate how hard it is for a team to play in WaGriz, against that defense, when you’re not used to it. We, fortunately, are used to both, but that place is loud (and cold) and that defense is so hard to prepare against if you don’t have a talent advantage and you’re not used to seeing it. This isn’t to say that USD is good, more just that it’s a hard place to play for a lot of reasons.

[BelligerentBobcat]

Actually, @Colter_Nuanez, there’s a question for you!

Now I fully realize that UM has good defensive players. I am not disputing that fact at all. I’m curious how much impact running a unique scheme like they do has on teams that aren’t familiar with them? Because I’ve seen teams run a 3-3-5 plenty, but nobody runs it quite like them where they completely eschew gap control and blitz from seemingly everywhere. And then to follow that up, if it does have an impact, do you think that impact is neutered when they play a team like MSU that is both familiar with that scheme, and has equivalent or greater talent to match it?

[technoCat]

A Comparison of Wins Against End of Season Top 25 Teams(Including Playoffs)

Here is a comparison of MSU vs UM in "real" top 25 wins that can be confirmed with the End of Regular Season top 25 rankings. For example, NAU was ranked #13 when they played MSU, now they are 7-5 and not ranked. Idaho was ranked ranked #8 when they played UM, now they are 4-8 and not ranked. Both wins don't count for either team in this comparison.

--MSU--wins against #3 UM, #10 SFA, #11 UCD, #24 YALE
-(4 total, 1 Away, 3 Home, 2 top 10)
-All 4 of those wins were the last 4 games for the Cats, with a couple of those wins in the top 10...
-Average Margin of Victory for these Wins - 12.0

--UM-- wins against #12 USD, #16 SDSU, #19 UND
-(3 total, 0 Away, 3 Home, no top 10)
-Wins against #16 and #12 these last 2 weeks, #19 back in Week2.
-Average Margin of Victory for these Wins - 17.3
-Interesting note, the Griz never got a true top 10 win this season, as Idaho fell off, and UND finished 7-5 and ranked #19

Questions

This is a question for @Colter_Nuanez if he has time, or anyone who wants to chime in from either side. I'm being real here, not facetious... Who is more battle tested as of late? Who has faced a tougher task the last 4 weeks? Is the narrative of MSU "struggling" and UM "dominating" actually fair? And if so, would you rather be "peaking" right now, or have the ability to grow and "improve" given there are potentially 2 games left...


Analysis

I asked three different co-hosts/guests over the last two days "what if South Dakota just sucks?" haha. The Griz have played well since Brawl 1.0. They also might've just blown the doors off two mediocre teams. I was not impressed with South Dakota at all. I said on the radio my pregame prediction was 48-10. So 52-22 was actually South Dakota doing better than I expected haha.

To me, I think the Cats have been tested by great teams these last four weeks, each of them bringing a completely new challenge.
- (UC Davis - duel threat QB)
- (Montana - Explosive Offense/Hostile Atmosphere)
- (Yale - Physicality/Coaching)
- (SFA - Top 10 Defense/Explosive Offense)
They survived all tests, regardless of how they got it done. All four of these teams were physical, ranked in the top 25 , and 2 of them were top 10 wins. Is MSU slowing down late in the year? Especially after these last 4 weeks of physically demanding games? Maybe. But I see it in a different way...

Maybe MSU's playoff competition was just overlooked by people when the brackets came out. They were dismissed by many as "weaker" by myself, MSU fans, UM fans, and media. Could it be that MSU just struggled against good teams that showed up to play and had the talent to match MSU's physicality?

It's rare, but this year, the MVC's collective "2nd bests" versus the Southland and Ivy's "best" could be a legitimate debate on who is tougher. The MVC is a tougher conference top to bottom no question, but Yale and SFA has had two historically great years for their programs, producing a combined 11 All-Americans and setting several school win records. In contrast, USD and SDSU had one of their worst years in 5 years. I don't think that aspect has been talked about enough. USD dominated Mercer, sure; but Mercer, similarly to Sac State, has proven in the past they cannot hang with the big boys in the postseason, getting blown out every second round matchup they have been too. For their standards, the MVC has had a bad showing in the playoffs this year, with the exception being a surging Illinois State team that seems capable of doing anything after beating the NDSU juggernauts and becoming immortalized.

UM dominated two of the MVC "2nd bests", and deserve massive credit in handling their business in style. Before the games were played, most people thought the SD schools would put up more of a fight against UM. In retrospect, was that just due to their reputation of postseason success, masking their 8-4 regular season record? I just think people might be reading too heavily into MSU's "struggles" and UM's "dominance" these last two weeks. Especially when looking back at the seasons that got them to where they are now. To me, this year's playoffs have been amazing for the FCS! You never know what is going to happen anymore. All bets are off, and that's what makes me excited, yet very nervous as a Cat's fan!

I just thought USD looked utterly unprepared for the game. Like they didn't watch any film or do any research and just thought they were going to come in and roll because they are from the mighty MVFC. Or like they just didn't think they could win and were happy to be there.

I really think we underestimate how hard it is for a team to play in WaGriz, against that defense, when you’re not used to it. We, fortunately, are used to both, but that place is loud (and cold) and that defense is so hard to prepare against if you don’t have a talent advantage and you’re not used to seeing it. This isn’t to say that USD is good, more just that it’s a hard place to play for a lot of reasons.

But they didn't seem prepared at all to play in WaGriz like they had never heard it was loud. What did they have, like 7 false starts? SFA had 0! (although I think at least 3 could have been called) Did they not know that the Griz like to load the box and send pressure to stop the run? Didn't seem like they were ready to make them pay for it and seemed to refuse to pass until the game was completely out of reach.
Defensively it was like they only knew about Gilman and had no idea how to deal with anyone else. Wortham's long td you barely even see a USD defender in the frame until the safety slightly comes in at the end. I think someone said they were guarding him with a LB that gave him a free release.

[catatac]

Ya, I said it in another thread but that USD coaching staff failed miserably of getting that team ready to play. If you have a pulse and follow FCS football AT ALL, you know exactly what you absolutely cannot do in that stadium, which is getting a bunch of false starts and other stupid penalties, turning the ball over, and giving up huge kick or punt returns. They did all of these things. No, it's not just because the Griz are epic'ly good and forced all these things, it's because USD wasn't prepared for the environment. They should have called Vigen for advice on how to do that. Then they're stud RB went down when he was starting to roll pretty good, back luck there.

[BOBCATBORN]

Also we can’t forget about Loud. Loud being back has made the Gris ten fold better. However, SDSU being without 9 starters didn’t matter. The SDSU team that we played healthy is the same that the Gris played.

[nanacat]

A Comparison of Wins Against End of Season Top 25 Teams(Including Playoffs)

Here is a comparison of MSU vs UM in "real" top 25 wins that can be confirmed with the End of Regular Season top 25 rankings. For example, NAU was ranked #13 when they played MSU, now they are 7-5 and not ranked. Idaho was ranked ranked #8 when they played UM, now they are 4-8 and not ranked. Both wins don't count for either team in this comparison.

--MSU--wins against #3 UM, #10 SFA, #11 UCD, #24 YALE
-(4 total, 1 Away, 3 Home, 2 top 10)
-All 4 of those wins were the last 4 games for the Cats, with a couple of those wins in the top 10...
-Average Margin of Victory for these Wins - 12.0

--UM-- wins against #12 USD, #16 SDSU, #19 UND
-(3 total, 0 Away, 3 Home, no top 10)
-Wins against #16 and #12 these last 2 weeks, #19 back in Week2.
-Average Margin of Victory for these Wins - 17.3
-Interesting note, the Griz never got a true top 10 win this season, as Idaho fell off, and UND finished 7-5 and ranked #19

Questions

This is a question for @Colter_Nuanez if he has time, or anyone who wants to chime in from either side. I'm being real here, not facetious... Who is more battle tested as of late? Who has faced a tougher task the last 4 weeks? Is the narrative of MSU "struggling" and UM "dominating" actually fair? And if so, would you rather be "peaking" right now, or have the ability to grow and "improve" given there are potentially 2 games left...


Analysis


To me, I think the Cats have been tested by great teams these last four weeks, each of them bringing a completely new challenge.
- (UC Davis - duel threat QB)
- (Montana - Explosive Offense/Hostile Atmosphere)
- (Yale - Physicality/Coaching)
- (SFA - Top 10 Defense/Explosive Offense)
They survived all tests, regardless of how they got it done. All four of these teams were physical, ranked in the top 25 , and 2 of them were top 10 wins. Is MSU slowing down late in the year? Especially after these last 4 weeks of physically demanding games? Maybe. But I see it in a different way...

Maybe MSU's playoff competition was just overlooked by people when the brackets came out. They were dismissed by many as "weaker" by myself, MSU fans, UM fans, and media. Could it be that MSU just struggled against good teams that showed up to play and had the talent to match MSU's physicality?

It's rare, but this year, the MVC's collective "2nd bests" versus the Southland and Ivy's "best" could be a legitimate debate on who is tougher. The MVC is a tougher conference top to bottom no question, but Yale and SFA has had two historically great years for their programs, producing a combined 11 All-Americans and setting several school win records. In contrast, USD and SDSU had one of their worst years in 5 years. I don't think that aspect has been talked about enough. USD dominated Mercer, sure; but Mercer, similarly to Sac State, has proven in the past they cannot hang with the big boys in the postseason, getting blown out every second round matchup they have been too. For their standards, the MVC has had a bad showing in the playoffs this year, with the exception being a surging Illinois State team that seems capable of doing anything after beating the NDSU juggernauts and becoming immortalized.

UM dominated two of the MVC "2nd bests", and deserve massive credit in handling their business in style. Before the games were played, most people thought the SD schools would put up more of a fight against UM. In retrospect, was that just due to their reputation of postseason success, masking their 8-4 regular season record? I just think people might be reading too heavily into MSU's "struggles" and UM's "dominance" these last two weeks. Especially when looking back at the seasons that got them to where they are now. To me, this year's playoffs have been amazing for the FCS! You never know what is going to happen anymore. All bets are off, and that's what makes me excited, yet very nervous as a Cat's fan!

Sorry, was in the wrong spot, hard to read...

I asked three different co-hosts/guests over the last two days "what if South Dakota just sucks?" haha. The Griz have played well since Brawl 1.0. They also might've just blown the doors off two mediocre teams. I was not impressed with South Dakota at all. I said on the radio my pregame prediction was 48-10. So 52-22 was actually South Dakota doing better than I expected haha.

Good point Colter, and those co-hosts all pretty much dismissed your take. I can't believe that so many refuse to consider that neither of the South Dakota teams were that good. USD clearly had not watched any film on the griz, and SDSU was still shorthanded and playing injured in that game, let alone the fact that Mason had been out how many weeks? That will affect your abilities, rusty much? Playing at home is always better for the griz, well until Nov 22nd this year, but I agree that their competition in those two games was really not stellar.

[catatac]

Also we can’t forget about Loud. Loud being back has made the Gris ten fold better. However, SDSU being without 9 starters didn’t matter. The SDSU team that we played healthy is the same that the Gris played.

I heard through the grapevine their plan is to have Loud cover Taco and Long on each play, and provide run support on said plays.