Super Brawl - A Statistical Deep Dive

[BlueAndGoldNation]

I haven't seen anyone really do an overall deep dive into major statistical categories for this game yet, so I made it my project to compile all of the stats/ratings relevant to this game to see how both teams stack up against each other. This comparison might surprise some people with the results. Others won't be surprised at all

--------------------------STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE-------------------------

Let's Start by setting the stage with the Strength of Schedule
These are both updated to include the playoff games they have played

Via Warren Nolan
-----MSU #1-----
-----UM #30-----

Via Massey Ratings
------MSU #5------
------UM #15------

Average Winning Percentage of Teams Played (Including Playoffs)
----------MSU - 0.6282 (#1 in FCS)---------------
----------UM - 0.5135 (#30 in FCS)---------------

Average Margin of Victory (Including Playoffs)
--------------MSU - 19.7 (#3 in FCS)--------------
-------------- UM - 18.0 (#5 in FCS)--------------

Wins Against Top 25 Teams that were Top 25 at the EoY (Including Playoffs)
------------------MSU wins against #3, #10, #11, #24-----------------------------
---------------(4 total, 1 Away and 3 Home, 2 top 10)---------------------------
--------------------UM wins against #12, #16, #19--------------------------------
-------------------(3 total, All at Home, no top 10)------------------------------

Total All Americans Played Against this Year Via SI
--------------------MSU - 28-----------------------
---------------------UM - 16-----------------------


-----------------------TEAM STATISTICS--------------------------

Here is how MSU and UM compare in Team Statistics
I have highlighted where each team has the advantage
with their respective colors...

|-------MSU---------|----Team Statistic----|--------UM----------|
|---464.9 (4th)-----|----Total Offense-----|---436.2 (17th)---|
|---317.3 (11th)---|----Total Defense-----|---396.3 (86th)---|
|------26 (4th)------|------TO Gained-------|-----26 (4th)------|
|-----10 (10th)------|-------TO Lost---------|----12 (25th)------|
|----[+16 (3rd)]-----|------TO Margin-------|---[+14 (5th)]-----|
|----37.4 (9th)------|---Scoring Offense---|-----42.3(3rd)-----|
|----17.64(6th)-----|---Scoring Defense---|----23.79(33rd)---|
|---.475(10th)------|--3rd Down Con Of%--|----.463(17th)----|
|---.335(13th)------|--3rd Down Con Df%--|----.402(65th)----|
|------4 (5th)--------|----Defensive TDs ----|-----2 (24th)------|
|------11(8th)-------|-------Fum Rec--------|-----5 (80th)-------|
|------6(45th)-------|-------Fum Lost--------|----4 (17th)-------|
|----202.1(70th)----|---Passing Offense----|---287.1 (6th)----|
|----199.9 (36th)---|---Passing Defense----|--261.3 (115th)--|
|----234.1 (4th)----|---Rushing Offense----|---176.9 (36th)---|
|---117.4 (14th)----|---Rushing Defense----|---135.0 (39th)--|
|----4.43(26th)-----|---TFL Allowed/Gm----|---5.43 (52nd)---|
|----5.90(46th)-----|----TFL Per Game------|----5.30 (71st)---|
|----0.28 (5th)------|---INT Thrown/GM----|----0.57 (43rd)---|
|----1.07 (6th)------|----Passes INT/GM-----|----1.5 (2nd)-----|
|----2.07 (53rd)----|-------Sacks/GM---------|----2.21(38th)---|
|---29.88 (64th)----|---Time of Poss/GM----|---29.52(77th)---|


-----------------------PFF GRADES----------------------------

I know PFF Grades don't mean much, but here they are...

| MSU |----PFF Grades----| UM |
| 5th |------Offense------| 7th |
|19th|-------Passing------|17th|
| 9th |---Pass-Blocking---|39th|
|18th|------Receiving-----| 6th |
| 2nd|-------Rushing------|75th|
| 4th |----Run-Blocking---|40th|
|13th|-------Defense------|40th|
|26th|----Rush Defense---|63rd|
|72nd|------Tackling-------|71st|
|42nd|-----Pass Rush------|65th|
|16th|------Coverage------|20th|


------------------------------------------INTERESTING HISTORICAL STATS--------------------------------------------

- Brent Vigen is 39-2 in Bozeman, winning 95% of his games at home (two OT losses, one to NDSU and one to SDSU)
- UM has one road playoff win in their history as a program (#1JMU in 2008 Semifinals)
- The Griz haven't won in Bozeman since 2015
- Hauck has not won in Bozeman since coming to UM from UNLV, those margins of victory for MSU were 34, 34, and 23
- Brent Vigen is 3-2 in Brawl Games (2 wins at home, 1 away)
- Bobby Hauck is 2-5 in Brawl Games in his second stint (2 wins at home, none away)
- Under Vigen, the Cats have played a team twice in a season on two occasions, sweeping both times (Idaho, Weber State - Both Home)
- Brent Vigen is 36-3 vs BigSky Opponents

Since many of you are prematurely calling this the "REAL" National Title Game, this information is relevant
- Brent Vigen is 0-2 in FCS National Championship Games with MSU as HC (2021, 2024)
- Brent Vigen is 3-0 in FCS National Championship Games with NDSU as OC (2011, 2012, 2013)
- Bobby Hauck is 0-3 in FCS National Championship Games with UM pre NDSU Dynasty Era (2004, 2008, 2009)
- Bobby Hauck is 0-1 in FCS National Championship Games with UM during NDSU Dynasty Era (2023)

- Brent Vigen is 3-2 overall in FCS National Championship Games with NDSU + MSU (OC + HC)
- Bobby Hauck is 0-4 overall in FCS National Championship Games with UM

------------------------------------------------------------CONCLUSION-------------------------------------------------------------

Take what you want from this... These stats clearly tell that MSU has had a tougher Strength of Schedule. This makes it even more impressive that MSU leads in almost every Team Stat category besides Passing Offense, Average Points Scored, and Receiving (YAC)... This points to a more explosive offense on the side of UM. MSU has statistically superior line play, scoring top 10 in both Pass Blocking and Run Blocking. UM gets to the QB for sacks at a higher rate, and also creates 0.5 more INTs a game than MSU does, but MSU has better pass rush rate PFF grades ranked 42nd while UM is 65th. MSU's rushing defense (#14) is also significantly better than UM's (#39th). Total Defensive ranking for UM is a shocking #86, while MSU's is #11.

MSU has controlled 3rd down this year on both sides of the ball, coming up with a stop 67% of the time(#13 in FCS) and converting 47% of the time (#10 in FCS).

MSU has a far superior Defense when it comes to yards allowed and points scored, allowing 68.5 fewer yards and 6.15 fewer points than UM. MSU has also outgained UM in total yards gained per game, gaining 30 more yards a game. This is also interesting considering UM averages 42.3 points scored per game, 4.9 more points per game than MSU. This means UM is more potent in the redzone, scoring more TDs than FGs. MSU sometimes sputters in the redzone where they have to kick more FGs, equaling less points per game despite more yards gained on average... (or maybe its Bobby running up the score )

This was a fun little project to do. If anyone has anything to add to this, or has any input on these findings, please comment and post down below. I hope people found this as fascinating as I did.

[94VegasCat]

Amount of Suck

Cats zero
gris 50,000,000,000

[ilovethecats]

That is a LOT of things the Bobcats seem to do well for a team I keep reading isn't as good as the griz!

If better stats across the board don't matter, and already beating them once doesn't matter; I don't think even a second and more decisive win would convince some of those guys who's better.

In the end the better team is going to win (again) an we all are going to be very happy.

[RyeCat]

Amount of Suck

Cats zero
gris 50,000,000,000

Amount of arrogant weaseld$ck fans
Cats hardly any
gris eleventy billion

[RyeCat]

That is a LOT of things the Bobcats seem to do well for a team I keep reading isn't as good as the griz!

If better stats across the board don't matter, and already beating them once doesn't matter; I don't think even a second and more decisive win would convince some of those guys who's better.

In the end the better team is going to win (again) an we all are going to be very happy.

The one thing that isn’t discussed much, even last week when SFA’s 3rd rated rush defense was being advertised , is that the statistical winning categories are built up by playing inferior teams and strength of schedules. SFA’s SOS was something like 51st and Yale’s defense looked like a Peterbuilt in comparison. Gris may have statistical advantage in a few categories but those were earned against a much softer schedule. I’m sure they’ll still be able to spin some reason why they’re world beaters, however.

[BelligerentBobcat]

That is a LOT of things the Bobcats seem to do well for a team I keep reading isn't as good as the griz!

If better stats across the board don't matter, and already beating them once doesn't matter; I don't think even a second and more decisive win would convince some of those guys who's better.

In the end the better team is going to win (again) an we all are going to be very happy.

Yeah but the Griz are peaking and the Cats have been playing bad lately.

[rfischer94]

That is a LOT of things the Bobcats seem to do well for a team I keep reading isn't as good as the griz!

If better stats across the board don't matter, and already beating them once doesn't matter; I don't think even a second and more decisive win would convince some of those guys who's better.

In the end the better team is going to win (again) an we all are going to be very happy.

Yeah but the Griz are peaking and the Cats have been playing bad lately.

And they have Kyon Loud back, which means we won't be able to pass the ball. At all.

[onceacat]

Cats are 5-6 point favorites, which translates to about a 70% chance to win.

[BlueAndGoldNation]

I thought we were the better team, but after putting this together, it's not even a question! The game still has to be played, but seeing as we have outplayed them in nearly every statistal category against an objectively harder schedule, and beat them head to head at their place 3 weeks ago, I am shocked that the Griz fans are so confident due to the fact UM eliminated 2 8-4 teams that were "meh" this year(both outside the top 10 EOY), at home, in a place nobody wins except for the Cats. All of a sudden, UM is the "hottest" team in football despite MSU's FCS leading 12 game win streak...

Cats have to show up on Saturday, Griz aren't bad by any means, but the delusional, arrogant fans on their end are pissing me off right now

[BlueAndGoldNation]

Also, another Stat forgot to throw in there... SFA held a 9-3 University of Houston team that is currently ranked 21st nationally, and placed 4th in the Big12, to only 27 points at the beginning of this year. We hung 44 on that same defense. SFA had 6 All Americans on their team, those guys were legit. They were talented as hell. Don't let any Griz fan tell you differently.

[cats2506]

I thought we were the better team, but after putting this together, it's not even a question! The game still has to be played, but seeing as we have outplayed them in nearly every statistal category against an objectively harder schedule, and beat them head to head at their place 3 weeks ago, I am shocked that the Griz fans are so confident due to the fact they eliminated 2 unseeded 8-4 teams that were struggling this year in an unhostile environment. All of a sudden, UM is the "hottest" team in football despite MSU's FCS leading 12 game win streak...

Cats have to show up on Saturday, Griz aren't bad by any means, but the delusional, arrogant fans on their end are pissing me off right now

SDSU was a #14 seed, USD was a #11 Seed

[BlueAndGoldNation]

I thought we were the better team, but after putting this together, it's not even a question! The game still has to be played, but seeing as we have outplayed them in nearly every statistal category against an objectively harder schedule, and beat them head to head at their place 3 weeks ago, I am shocked that the Griz fans are so confident due to the fact they eliminated 2 unseeded 8-4 teams that were struggling this year in an unhostile environment. All of a sudden, UM is the "hottest" team in football despite MSU's FCS leading 12 game win streak...

Cats have to show up on Saturday, Griz aren't bad by any means, but the delusional, arrogant fans on their end are pissing me off right now

SDSU was a #14 seed, USD was a #11 Seed

Yes. My bad, I meant not any top 8 ... Thank you for the correction. I just fixed it

[ilovethecats]

That is a LOT of things the Bobcats seem to do well for a team I keep reading isn't as good as the griz!

If better stats across the board don't matter, and already beating them once doesn't matter; I don't think even a second and more decisive win would convince some of those guys who's better.

In the end the better team is going to win (again) an we all are going to be very happy.

Yeah but the Griz are peaking and the Cats have been playing bad lately.

Hence the brilliance of the messiah running up the score in the last 2 games. It was unnecessary but he knew his loyal followers would not only accept it, but believe its because their team is elite and playing better than everyone else.

He did the same thing in his presser and now his followers are convinced they only lost because of a lucky interception and a lucky blocked field goal. lol.

I honestly don’t even fault the guy anymore. He is literally a cult leader. He is Jesus, they his worshipers. They truly believe his words are gospel. I think that fanbase is going to have some completely shocked followers Saturday afternoon!

[84CatGrad]

These are great. But (and I know everyone knows this), its still a Brawl and anything can happen. If Illinois State can go into Fargo, throw five picks and win, then anything can happen on Saturday. I'll happily take a 1-point win.

[TomCat88]

These are great. But (and I know everyone knows this), its still a Brawl and anything can happen. If Illinois State can go into Fargo, throw five picks and win, then anything can happen on Saturday. I'll happily take a 1-point win.

You're absolutely right. A few people always predict it right, but that's just because about 500,000 people are making a guess. There's the blowout crowd, the upset crowd, the close game crowd, the OT crowd, the home team crowd, the stats crowd and many others.

[BlueAndGoldNation]

These are great. But (and I know everyone knows this), its still a Brawl and anything can happen. If Illinois State can go into Fargo, throw five picks and win, then anything can happen on Saturday. I'll happily take a 1-point win.

Fully aware. I'm super stressed about this game. The Griz have the firepower to win. The Cats NEED to show up from Q1 and set the tone, or it might get too close for our comfort.

I just had to get these stats and facts down on the table to help curb some Griz overconfidence. It shocks me how they still believe they are, and should be the favorites despite virtually all team statistics, SoS, and historical records pointing to MSU being favored in this. It's delusion to the highest degree! If the roles were flipped and we had to go to UM, I'd be stressed right now, and I wouldn't be talking as much as they are. Home Field is a huge deal! I'm still stressed even though we are playing at home haha. Anything can happen!

[catatac]

These are great. But (and I know everyone knows this), its still a Brawl and anything can happen. If Illinois State can go into Fargo, throw five picks and win, then anything can happen on Saturday. I'll happily take a 1-point win.

Fully aware. I'm super stressed about this game. The Griz have the firepower to win. The Cats NEED to show up from Q1 and set the tone, or it might get too close for our comfort.

I just had to get these stats and facts down on the table to help curb some Griz overconfidence. It shocks me how they still believe they are, and should be the favorites despite virtually all team statistics, SoS, and historical records pointing to MSU being favored in this. It's delusion to the highest degree! If the roles were flipped and we had to go to UM, I'd be scared right now, and I wouldn't be talking as much as they are. Home Field is a huge deal! I'm still scared even though we are playing at home haha. Anything can happen!

Absolutely, 100%, where I'm at. Super nervous, and they have enough talent to beat us, especially if they catch some lucky breaks with turnovers, kicking game, etc. But I agree it's funny how confident some of them are after what went down in Missoula. I honestly think a bunch of them are thinking that because the Cats somehow went into WAGriz and beat them, that means that home field doesn't matter this year. Weird.

[onceacat]

Imagine being a Gris fan with their measly allotment.

[iaafan]

These are great. But (and I know everyone knows this), its still a Brawl and anything can happen. If Illinois State can go into Fargo, throw five picks and win, then anything can happen on Saturday. I'll happily take a 1-point win.

Fully aware. I'm super stressed about this game. The Griz have the firepower to win. The Cats NEED to show up from Q1 and set the tone, or it might get too close for our comfort.

I just had to get these stats and facts down on the table to help curb some Griz overconfidence. It shocks me how they still believe they are, and should be the favorites despite virtually all team statistics, SoS, and historical records pointing to MSU being favored in this. It's delusion to the highest degree! If the roles were flipped and we had to go to UM, I'd be scared right now, and I wouldn't be talking as much as they are. Home Field is a huge deal! I'm still scared even though we are playing at home haha. Anything can happen!

Absolutely, 100%, where I'm at. Super nervous, and they have enough talent to beat us, especially if they catch some lucky breaks with turnovers, kicking game, etc. But I agree it's funny how confident some of them are after what went down in Missoula. I honestly think a bunch of them are thinking that because the Cats somehow went into WAGriz and beat them, that means that home field doesn't matter this year. Weird.

Not showing MSU any respect isn’t working for them.

[nanacat]

These are great. But (and I know everyone knows this), its still a Brawl and anything can happen. If Illinois State can go into Fargo, throw five picks and win, then anything can happen on Saturday. I'll happily take a 1-point win.

Fully aware. I'm super stressed about this game. The Griz have the firepower to win. The Cats NEED to show up from Q1 and set the tone, or it might get too close for our comfort.

I just had to get these stats and facts down on the table to help curb some Griz overconfidence. It shocks me how they still believe they are, and should be the favorites despite virtually all team statistics, SoS, and historical records pointing to MSU being favored in this. It's delusion to the highest degree! If the roles were flipped and we had to go to UM, I'd be stressed right now, and I wouldn't be talking as much as they are. Home Field is a huge deal! I'm still stressed even though we are playing at home haha. Anything can happen!

Excellent job on all those stats. Pretty incredible when you see it all on paper. Of course they still have to play the game, and anything can happen on any given day. But as nervous as I am, and I truly am, I think the Cats will prevail. By how much is the big question. I'm thinking either a blowout: 2-3 scores, or it'll be an OT win by 1-3.