How do Cats stack up against Griz

[MrGoodKat]

It's really not that easy. Maybe if you comb the annals of history... but over the last decade or two, the only time a heavy underdog (double digit spread) won the game was 2016. The Cats had a better team in 2021 but with the game in missoula it really wasn't a shock that the griz won the game. 2011 would be another you could say the winner was unexpected... That's about it.

The margins of victory lately have been surprising for sure. But the winners of the games, not so much.

You mentioned 2016.

In 2017, the Griz came into the game at 7-3 while the Cats were 4-6. The Cats won.

In the first beatdown in 2019, the Griz were ranked No. 3 and the Cats No. 8.

You mentioned 2021, wherein the Cats got smoked and then made a run to Frisco.

If there are 3-4 examples of the lesser team winning the Brawl in the last 8 games, it doesn't make a lot of sense to say that the better team typically wins.

I can think of other examples too. In 2011, the Cats were the #1 ranked team in the FCS and Montana whooped them in Bozeman.

[OldGriz]

Not fair examples? You are kind of tossing Tommy under the bus there. You are saying we shouldn’t have expected him to play well because it was a big game?

I'm saying that Tommy got tight before virtually all big games, so using him as an example that's characteristic of all MT born players isn't really fair.

I never said one chokes, they all choke. Many, many, many Montana-born players in both programs rise to the occasion in the rivalry game. And so do many non-native Montanans. I think what you say about Tommy kind of illustrates TexasBuiltBobcat’s point. McDowell wasn’t raised in the heat (or the venom) of the rivalry, so he didn’t carry that kind of baggage to trip over.

[91catAlum]

It's really not that easy. Maybe if you comb the annals of history... but over the last decade or two, the only time a heavy underdog (double digit spread) won the game was 2016. The Cats had a better team in 2021 but with the game in missoula it really wasn't a shock that the griz won the game. 2011 would be another you could say the winner was unexpected... That's about it.

The margins of victory lately have been surprising for sure. But the winners of the games, not so much.

You mentioned 2016.

In 2017, the Griz came into the game at 7-3 while the Cats were 4-6. The Cats won.

In the first beatdown in 2019, the Griz were ranked No. 3 and the Cats No. 8.

You mentioned 2021, wherein the Cats got smoked and then made a run to Frisco.

If there are 3-4 examples of the lesser team winning the Brawl in the last 8 games, it doesn't make a lot of sense to say that the better team typically wins.

I can think of other examples too. In 2011, the Cats were the #1 ranked team in the FCS and Montana whooped them in Bozeman.

Most of your examples were games where the favorite wasn't favored by much, or the home team was a slight underdog and won. If a team is favored by 2 or 3 points and loses, I don't consider that an "upset". Especially if the underdog was at home.

2019 was 3 vs 8 with 8 at home. Pretty even IMO.

2021 the Cats had the better team, but the griz had a good team and were at home. Pretty even IMO. The run to Frisco was because we changed QBs after that game.

But I get your point, if you look at the games where the point spread is only a couple points, then yes the favorite doesn't always win. I guess I'm thinking of games where there's clearly 1 team better than the other and that team loses. I'm not thinking about games where 1 team was favored by a point or 2.

[MrGoodKat]

It's really not that easy. Maybe if you comb the annals of history... but over the last decade or two, the only time a heavy underdog (double digit spread) won the game was 2016. The Cats had a better team in 2021 but with the game in missoula it really wasn't a shock that the griz won the game. 2011 would be another you could say the winner was unexpected... That's about it.

The margins of victory lately have been surprising for sure. But the winners of the games, not so much.

You mentioned 2016.

In 2017, the Griz came into the game at 7-3 while the Cats were 4-6. The Cats won.

In the first beatdown in 2019, the Griz were ranked No. 3 and the Cats No. 8.

You mentioned 2021, wherein the Cats got smoked and then made a run to Frisco.

If there are 3-4 examples of the lesser team winning the Brawl in the last 8 games, it doesn't make a lot of sense to say that the better team typically wins.

I can think of other examples too. In 2011, the Cats were the #1 ranked team in the FCS and Montana whooped them in Bozeman.

Most of your examples were games where the favorite wasn't favored by much, or the home team was a slight underdog and won. If a team is favored by 2 or 3 points and loses, I don't consider that an "upset". Especially if the underdog was at home.

2019 was 3 vs 8 with 8 at home. Pretty even IMO.

2021 the Cats had the better team, but the griz had a good team and were at home. Pretty even IMO. The run to Frisco was because we changed QBs after that game.

But I get your point, if you look at the games where the point spread is only a couple points, then yes the favorite doesn't always win. I guess I'm thinking of games where there's clearly 1 team better than the other and that team loses. I'm not thinking about games where 1 team was favored by a point or 2.

I'm not compelled by the point spreads as the criteria. I think the betting markets know that the Brawl is unpredictable. But by record and ranking, the lesser team has won quite often.

Shoot, Skyline stopped predicting winners in the Brawl because they kept picking the Griz and being wrong. They weren't trying to be UM homers-- the games just subverted their expectations.

[91catAlum]

It's really not that easy. Maybe if you comb the annals of history... but over the last decade or two, the only time a heavy underdog (double digit spread) won the game was 2016. The Cats had a better team in 2021 but with the game in missoula it really wasn't a shock that the griz won the game. 2011 would be another you could say the winner was unexpected... That's about it.

The margins of victory lately have been surprising for sure. But the winners of the games, not so much.

You mentioned 2016.

In 2017, the Griz came into the game at 7-3 while the Cats were 4-6. The Cats won.

In the first beatdown in 2019, the Griz were ranked No. 3 and the Cats No. 8.

You mentioned 2021, wherein the Cats got smoked and then made a run to Frisco.

If there are 3-4 examples of the lesser team winning the Brawl in the last 8 games, it doesn't make a lot of sense to say that the better team typically wins.

I can think of other examples too. In 2011, the Cats were the #1 ranked team in the FCS and Montana whooped them in Bozeman.

Most of your examples were games where the favorite wasn't favored by much, or the home team was a slight underdog and won. If a team is favored by 2 or 3 points and loses, I don't consider that an "upset". Especially if the underdog was at home.

2019 was 3 vs 8 with 8 at home. Pretty even IMO.

2021 the Cats had the better team, but the griz had a good team and were at home. Pretty even IMO. The run to Frisco was because we changed QBs after that game.

But I get your point, if you look at the games where the point spread is only a couple points, then yes the favorite doesn't always win. I guess I'm thinking of games where there's clearly 1 team better than the other and that team loses. I'm not thinking about games where 1 team was favored by a point or 2.

I'm not compelled by the point spreads as the criteria. I think the betting markets know that the Brawl is unpredictable. But by record and ranking, the lesser team has won quite often.

Shoot, Skyline stopped predicting winners in the Brawl because they kept picking the Griz and being wrong. They weren't trying to be UM homers-- the games just subverted their expectations.

By that standard, if the Cats win this year then the lesser team won. I disagree with that.

Skyline stopped predicting the game because the fanbases were getting upset when they picked against their team. They were accused of bias. So they stopped. It had nothing to do with them being wrong.

[MrGoodKat]

It's really not that easy. Maybe if you comb the annals of history... but over the last decade or two, the only time a heavy underdog (double digit spread) won the game was 2016. The Cats had a better team in 2021 but with the game in missoula it really wasn't a shock that the griz won the game. 2011 would be another you could say the winner was unexpected... That's about it.

The margins of victory lately have been surprising for sure. But the winners of the games, not so much.

You mentioned 2016.

In 2017, the Griz came into the game at 7-3 while the Cats were 4-6. The Cats won.

In the first beatdown in 2019, the Griz were ranked No. 3 and the Cats No. 8.

You mentioned 2021, wherein the Cats got smoked and then made a run to Frisco.

If there are 3-4 examples of the lesser team winning the Brawl in the last 8 games, it doesn't make a lot of sense to say that the better team typically wins.

I can think of other examples too. In 2011, the Cats were the #1 ranked team in the FCS and Montana whooped them in Bozeman.

Most of your examples were games where the favorite wasn't favored by much, or the home team was a slight underdog and won. If a team is favored by 2 or 3 points and loses, I don't consider that an "upset". Especially if the underdog was at home.

2019 was 3 vs 8 with 8 at home. Pretty even IMO.

2021 the Cats had the better team, but the griz had a good team and were at home. Pretty even IMO. The run to Frisco was because we changed QBs after that game.

But I get your point, if you look at the games where the point spread is only a couple points, then yes the favorite doesn't always win. I guess I'm thinking of games where there's clearly 1 team better than the other and that team loses. I'm not thinking about games where 1 team was favored by a point or 2.

I'm not compelled by the point spreads as the criteria. I think the betting markets know that the Brawl is unpredictable. But by record and ranking, the lesser team has won quite often.

Shoot, Skyline stopped predicting winners in the Brawl because they kept picking the Griz and being wrong. They weren't trying to be UM homers-- the games just subverted their expectations.

By that standard, if the Cats win this year then the lesser team won. I disagree with that.

Skyline stopped predicting the game because the fanbases were getting upset when they picked against their team. They were accused of bias. So they stopped. It had nothing to do with them being wrong.

I would not count a season like this one, where the two teams are right next to each other one way or the other.

Cat fans were getting mad because they kept picking the Griz and then being wrong. Had they been correct, there wouldn’t have been as much room to criticize.

[tetoncat]

My two biggest concerns are how Lamson handles the griz pressure and getting a punt/kick blocked.

I could see him taking some bad sacks if he continues to hold on to the ball too long or waits too long to run with it and if he gets sacked a few times early how does that affect him the rest of the game. We've been good lately on our punts/kicks but you know Bobbi will have ST dialed up to try and turn the game there.

If we can handle those two threats well I don't think we'll have too much to worry about. This is a tough team with a lot of MT and/or experienced players on the team who understand what they'll be walking into.

I actually think that the fact that we have quite a few key players that aren't from MT is what will be key for us. They know it's a big game but they are less likely to get caught up in the emotion of it all....whether they wanted to go to the griz or always hated the griz. They obviously want to beat the griz as it's a culture thing but the emotion that many of the MT players will have surrounding this game won't be there for them, it will allow them to approach the game like any other big game. It's like being from cali and playing for ut in the red river shootout. yeah you know it's a rivalry game but it doesn't hit the same so you just play the game. you didn't grow up hating or loving one team, you don't have to go home and worry about hearing jeers from either side because you won or lost...that mental part of the game doesn't exist for quite a few of our best players. I think they would have been more up or emotional about Oregon than the griz. Now I do think the griz is going to throw everything at us so the whole team will need to ready for the tricks and the bs that I feel will present itself.

I feel one of two things will happen....1. we come out like we did against UNC and defensively we are on their necks. Offense will be a bit sluggish to start but the defense will energize them quickly and we put our foot on their throats. then i feel the griz will resort to some bs to rattle our cage so our guys need to not get caught up in that and get ejected or get any penalties to give them a shot in the arm. fans will be on the teams butt the whole game so they just got to block it out. or 2. we're in a hard hitting dog fight. both defenses will lead the way with big hits, stout play and the offenses will need to have one or two key drives to pull ahead. the special teams game will be the tipping point in this scenario. we HAVE to be solid every single time, zero glitches. if we are in scenario 2 the game will be won or lost by our STs play(big kor, pr..blocked kick..missed fg or xpt...something like that). I don't think the griz feels they are better than us on offense or defense so they will offset that with ST play to keep them in the game, we have to match that energy.

oh yeah i see the griz making it ugly, they are going to try to out physical us, hard physical runs, defensively hit the qb everytime they get a chance(even getting some roughing the passer calls to get in our heads). I don't see them lining up and just being better than us, but I do see them trying to out play us...again we have to match that level of intensity for the whole game. They remind me of Katy HS here in Texas. They aren't fancy but good lord are they physical ALL GAME. We have to be willing to hit and hit HARD all game regardless of the score.

Your first paragraph is an interesting perspective that I don't know if we've seen here before. The general consensus on BN, and the fandom at large, is that out of state guys are the weakness going into Cat-griz because they don't get it and have trouble rising to the moment. I suppose that could be backwards for some of the guys from TX because of the high school environment. There's always the possibility that the MT guys are overhyped for the game but that is kind of the point. It's not just another big game and both sides treat it like the super bowl. "It just means more" and you need the entire team on board with that to win.

I don’t think that out of state kids are a weakness by any means. I’ve seen plenty kids from out of state that have had massive games in the Brawl.

Rather, I would just say that having lots of in state kids is an advantage. The history of this rivalry is littered with examples of MT players elevating their play to new heights.

So for someone to say it’s an advantage to have more out of state players is just revealing that they don’t know much about this game. And I say that as someone who was not born in Montana.

What I don't think you get is that I'm from Texas....the Cat-Griz game is no bigger than the UT/A$M or UT/OU game. I full well understand the history of the game and understand the hatred vitriol and passion that comes with these types of games. TBH our high school rivalry games are gawd awfully passionate. I do feel it is an advantage to have guys at key positions that aren't from MT because they don't have that emotion that will have them to make mistakes by being overly hyped up. Their approach is little different but still can/has produced great play. Just a different perspective.

I get what you're saying BBB, but in my personal opinion this line of thinking is always my biggest concern going into the brawl. How "big" a rivalry game is all subjective. Obviously on a national scale games like Alabama/Auburn, Michigan/Ohio State or Texas/Oklahoma are "bigger". But I couldn't care less about those teams. The biggest rivalry in the country is Cat/Griz because it is OUR rivalry. It's bigger than football. It goes way beyond the number of fans in attendance or how loud it is. The fact that some of these kids have played in front of 20k fans in high school means absolutely nothing.

To be clear, once you're a Bobcat you're always a Bobcat in my eyes. And you're a Montanan. I don't care where you're from one you wear that blue and gold. We wouldn't be where we are this season or even as a program without out-of-state kids; and I'm thankful for all of them. But as a fan of the Cats for over 40 years, seeing both really good football and really bad football, I can tell you we have gotten in trouble in the past with players underestimating this game. We've had players who have felt like they have played in bigger stadiums or came from a huge school or had a ton of amazing athletes or whatever else you want to put here. They acted as though this was just another game. Just a "rivalry" game at an FCS school when they came from SEC country so they downplay it. And it has never went well.

I'm not suggesting this is how these guys are viewing this game. I'm saying without a doubt this is how others before them have viewed this game. I don't care where any of our players are from. Montana or the moon. Doesn't matter. But when they take the field I want them KNOWING this is the biggest rivalry in the country. Because if you're playing in it that's just what it is.

I'm tired of going over there with what I consider a better team and getting crushed. Not just beat but crushed. It just can't happen anymore. Vigen needs to show he can win this game in Missoula. We literally control our own destiny and we need every single player giving this game the respect it deserves.

See Tom's post. You have recency bias.

[TomCat88]

What I don't think you get is that I'm from Texas....the Cat-Griz game is no bigger than the UT/A$M or UT/OU game. I full well understand the history of the game and understand the hatred vitriol and passion that comes with these types of games. TBH our high school rivalry games are gawd awfully passionate. I do feel it is an advantage to have guys at key positions that aren't from MT because they don't have that emotion that will have them to make mistakes by being overly hyped up. Their approach is little different but still can/has produced great play. Just a different perspective.

No, you don't understand. Because you haven't followed it very long and you haven't experienced it. That's evidenced by your argument that out-of-state players, rather than MT players, are the real key to victory. If you had been following the game for a long time, you would know that isn't true-- this game has a history of defining games by Montana-born players. This is, in large part, because it's smaller and more personal than other, bigger places.

I am not close to the UT/AM rivalry and so I wouldn't presume to tell people in College Station or Austin how it works.

Everyone gets it. You're a McMillan connection/fan. That's great. He's a baller and Bobcat fans love that he's in Bozeman. We hope he never leaves until he's out of eligibility. But your perspective isn't informed by actually knowing anything about the Brawl; it's informed by the fact that you are a McMillan fan first and so you're always going to take the stance that favors him.

His take is the same as mine and I've lived here all my life. I started watching Cat-Griz games in 1973 and went to my first one in 1982. The game is typically won by the better team regardless of where it's played.

No, The griz were not the better team in '21 (Cats went to the natty and that was their only FCS loss) and the Cats had losing records and were not better in '16 or '17. Those are 3 off the top of my head in just the last decade and I'm sure I could find plenty more. The best team not winning is far from an anomaly.

Yes, the game is typically won by the better team.
typ·i·cal·ly
/ˈtipək(ə)lē/
adverb
in most cases; usually.
"the quality of work is typically very high"

[TomCat88]

You can always tell when Cat-Griz is getting closer and closer.

[kwcat]

What I don't think you get is that I'm from Texas....the Cat-Griz game is no bigger than the UT/A$M or UT/OU game. I full well understand the history of the game and understand the hatred vitriol and passion that comes with these types of games. TBH our high school rivalry games are gawd awfully passionate. I do feel it is an advantage to have guys at key positions that aren't from MT because they don't have that emotion that will have them to make mistakes by being overly hyped up. Their approach is little different but still can/has produced great play. Just a different perspective.

No, you don't understand. Because you haven't followed it very long and you haven't experienced it. That's evidenced by your argument that out-of-state players, rather than MT players, are the real key to victory. If you had been following the game for a long time, you would know that isn't true-- this game has a history of defining games by Montana-born players. This is, in large part, because it's smaller and more personal than other, bigger places.

I am not close to the UT/AM rivalry and so I wouldn't presume to tell people in College Station or Austin how it works.

Everyone gets it. You're a McMillan connection/fan. That's great. He's a baller and Bobcat fans love that he's in Bozeman. We hope he never leaves until he's out of eligibility. But your perspective isn't informed by actually knowing anything about the Brawl; it's informed by the fact that you are a McMillan fan first and so you're always going to take the stance that favors him.

His take is the same as mine and I've lived here all my life. I started watching Cat-Griz games in 1973 and went to my first one in 1982. The game is typically won by the better team regardless of where it's played.

No, The griz were not the better team in '21 (Cats went to the natty and that was their only FCS loss) and the Cats had losing records and were not better in '16 or '17. Those are 3 off the top of my head in just the last decade and I'm sure I could find plenty more. The best team not winning is far from an anomaly.

Yes, the game is typically won by the better team.
typ·i·cal·ly
/ˈtipək(ə)lē/
adverb
in most cases; usually.
"the quality of work is typically very high"

Certainly gets fun to have the discussion this time of year.
It is not just the better team that wins that day. It is the football team on the field, the environment that is created by the community of “we”, the team that is healthy, and the organization with the best plan to come out in that environment and adapt to changing conditions.

So when a fan says “we won or lost” they are referring to not just the team on the field, but all the peripheral involvements of community. Some of us, including myself, in my opinion, can’t wait to get involved in the goings on of a football game. But it’s one of the things that makes life fun. The next two weeks are gonna seem like they take forever, but once it’s done, it’s gonna be a blur and life goes on.

[TomCat88]

I can't believe I'm doing this but here's a shallow dive into this nonsensical discussion about the impact of OOS players vs IS players in Cat-Griz games.
MSU games in Msla this century:
2002 - Lulay W (Lulay TD pass to Adams)
2004 - Lulay L (Lulay 386 yards)
2006 - Rolovich L
2008 - Desin L (Crawford 200+ yards)
2010 - McGhee W (McGhee TD pass to Bleskin and Palmer; O. Davis 140 yards, TD run)
2012 - McGhee W (McGhee 247 passing; TD pass to Siewing; Perez 3 FGs)
2014 - Bleskin L
2016 - Murray W (Murray 142 yards rushing, 2 TD runs; Newell TD run set up by LaSane run)
2018 - Andersen W (Andersen 3 TD runs; Jones TD run; Collins FF/FR; Yates FF; Marks FR) Probably the most Montanan game in series history for MSU.
2021 - McKay L
2023 - Mellott L

OOS QBs 4-3 only blown out once
Montana QBs 1-3 blown out all three times

2003 - Smith KR TD, Qualls pick-6, Molock 100 yards and 2 TDs, Lulay running and passing plus great punt to end game)
2005 - Lulay; Groves 143 yards, TD; Hastings 3 FGs.
2017 - Murray running and passing one TD; Andersen 2 TDs
2019 - Rovig; Allenye game-opening FF recovered by Marks; Kassis opening TD; Ifanse 171 yards and 3 TDs; Jones 121 yards, TD; Marshall TD
2022 - Huge variety of player contributing.
2024 - Mostly Mellott and Jones running; Taco and R. Jones receiving TDs

None of this is saying that one group is better than the other. I doubt a single player cares who outperforms who. I'm 100% sure the OOS players fully understand how important the game is and how much the IS players have invested into it over their lives. I'm 100% sure the IS players trust the OOS players and realize the game becomes just as important to them in a short amount of time after their arrival into Bozeman. I'm 100% sure this applies at UM.

[MrGoodKat]

I feel like you should ask your boss about the history of MT players in the brawl.