How do Cats stack up against Griz

[seataccat]

How do the Cats stack up against Griz? There is always a possibility that the Cats could upset the Griz. But there’s a reason the FCS coaches and the FCS writers believe the Griz are better than the Cats. Granted, the majority of Bobcatnation believes it knows more than the coaches and beat writers. The Brawl will settle it and it’s gonna be fun.

Some savvy trolling by continuing to slide in the word “upset”. Usually you combine it with a point spread you pulled out of your a$$. The reason the pollsters and coaches (let’s be honest, interns) have them ranked ahead is due to the “0” in the loss column. Which is fine. Guarantee you swap OOC schedules and that wouldn’t be happening. The committee, yes 11 very interested administrators, that actually spends the time analyzing the teams, says it is not an upset. But you do so it’s the truth!!

Good food for thought. Thank you. But may I ask — how do the Cats end up giving points in this game? In other words, are you predicting that the Cats will actually be the sportsbook (betting line) favorite in The Brawl? I guess I never envisioned any disagreement there. But that’s big news if you’re predicting the Griz will be underdogs at home.

Whatever the line is the gris aren't going to be a 10 point favorite like you said in the other thread. If you're willing to stand behind that prediction I'll take that bet for as much as you're willing to lose.

Well, what I said was, no more than 10 points and maybe even as close as 7 points. Seven points is a tight game. Wouldn’t you agree Montana is right now the underdog to be the underdog (aka, Montana is the likely favorite)?

I don't understand your third sentence but it's rediculous to think that the griz will be a 10 point favorite. Like most on hear I think it will be less than 3 points either way. If you are willing to give 7 points I would love to take that bet. Please just PM me how much.

[rfischer94]

How do the Cats stack up against Griz? There is always a possibility that the Cats could upset the Griz. But there’s a reason the FCS coaches and the FCS writers believe the Griz are better than the Cats. Granted, the majority of Bobcatnation believes it knows more than the coaches and beat writers. The Brawl will settle it and it’s gonna be fun.

Some savvy trolling by continuing to slide in the word “upset”. Usually you combine it with a point spread you pulled out of your a$$. The reason the pollsters and coaches (let’s be honest, interns) have them ranked ahead is due to the “0” in the loss column. Which is fine. Guarantee you swap OOC schedules and that wouldn’t be happening. The committee, yes 11 very interested administrators, that actually spends the time analyzing the teams, says it is not an upset. But you do so it’s the truth!!

Good food for thought. Thank you. But may I ask — how do the Cats end up giving points in this game? In other words, are you predicting that the Cats will actually be the sportsbook (betting line) favorite in The Brawl? I guess I never envisioned any disagreement there. But that’s big news if you’re predicting the Griz will be underdogs at home.

Whatever the line is the gris aren't going to be a 10 point favorite like you said in the other thread. If you're willing to stand behind that prediction I'll take that bet for as much as you're willing to lose.

Well, what I said was, no more than 10 points and maybe even as close as 7 points. Seven points is a tight game. Wouldn’t you agree Montana is right now the underdog to be the underdog (aka, Montana is the likely favorite)?

I think you’re asking the wrong crowd. Biased or not, I’ll take MSU to score more points in four quarters than the Griz will in the half their offense decides to show up for. When the Griz prove they can play a full game, then maybe they’ll be the favorite — but right now, that level of play won’t cut it against us.

[Clinton T]

How do the Cats stack up against Griz? There is always a possibility that the Cats could upset the Griz. But there’s a reason the FCS coaches and the FCS writers believe the Griz are better than the Cats. Granted, the majority of Bobcatnation believes it knows more than the coaches and beat writers. The Brawl will settle it and it’s gonna be fun.

Some savvy trolling by continuing to slide in the word “upset”. Usually you combine it with a point spread you pulled out of your a$$. The reason the pollsters and coaches (let’s be honest, interns) have them ranked ahead is due to the “0” in the loss column. Which is fine. Guarantee you swap OOC schedules and that wouldn’t be happening. The committee, yes 11 very interested administrators, that actually spends the time analyzing the teams, says it is not an upset. But you do so it’s the truth!!

Good food for thought. Thank you. But may I ask — how do the Cats end up giving points in this game? In other words, are you predicting that the Cats will actually be the sportsbook (betting line) favorite in The Brawl? I guess I never envisioned any disagreement there. But that’s big news if you’re predicting the Griz will be underdogs at home.

Whatever the line is the gris aren't going to be a 10 point favorite like you said in the other thread. If you're willing to stand behind that prediction I'll take that bet for as much as you're willing to lose.

Well, what I said was, no more than 10 points and maybe even as close as 7 points. Seven points is a tight game. Wouldn’t you agree Montana is right now the underdog to be the underdog (aka, Montana is the likely favorite)?

I don't understand your third sentence but it's rediculous to think that the griz will be a 10 point favorite. Like most on hear I think it will be less than 3 points either way. If you are willing to give 7 points I would love to take that bet. Please just PM me how much.

If everything is chalk the rest of the way, the gris will be -4.5 to open. I expect, given the recent history of this game, sharps will move this number will move closer to -6.5 by kickoff. This year, given the gris's defensive struggles (even though they have improved of late), there will be great value on the away ML on Saturday morning

[MrGoodKat]

One more interesting comparison.

The Cats and Griz have both played 5 BSC games, they have both played 2 games at home and 3 on the road, and their collective opponents' records are an identical 18-27.

In those conference games, the Cats are +177 points in scoring differential, good for 35.4 PPG. Their smallest margin was the 17 point victory over CP.

In their conference games, the Griz are +79 points in scoring differential, good for 15.8 PPG. Their smallest margin was their 4 point victory over ISU.

Comparison of scoring differential in BSC play ^^

[BelligerentBobcat]

My opinion:

QB: Cats

Ah Yat has a better arm than Lamson, but a lot of his production is schemed and you can see the offense bog down once they're out of their scripted stuff. He also isn't the runner that Lamson is and doesn't take care of the ball as well.

RB: Griz

Both teams have good backfields, but Gilman is the best RB in the conference; his production behind a poor OL is pretty incredible.

TE: Cats

The Cats are more diverse and talented at the position despite being younger, but I don't see the gap as being huge.

WR: Griz

Michael Wortham is the single best offensive player in the BSC right now, which gives UM the edge here for me.

OL: Cats

This one is easy.

DL: Cats

This one is easier.

LB: Cats

The Griz used to be the school that had all the in-state studs at linebacker; no longer. They aren't bad, but when the Cats can use Grebe, Taylor, and Daly, I think they're better.

CB: Cats

It's a pleasant surprise to me that this one is such an easy call; MSU's fleet of young corners have been awesome.

SAF: Cats

This is the closest to being a "Push" for me. However, Caden Dowler is the best player between either team and you only start two, so I give MSU the edge. Just look at Saturday-- turning and finding the ball for the PBU in coverage against one of the best receivers in the FCS.

Ahem. Hello!

[iaafan]

My opinion:

QB: Cats

Ah Yat has a better arm than Lamson, but a lot of his production is schemed and you can see the offense bog down once they're out of their scripted stuff. He also isn't the runner that Lamson is and doesn't take care of the ball as well.

I see Schmidt is trying to say Ah Yat is the leading passer in the FCS. To be clear he leads the FCS in yards passing. He’s 16th in efficiency. His QBR would be much further behind Lamson due to his 1.0 ypc on 47 attempts. He’s not as good as Pinnick either.

[iaafan]

RB: Griz

Both teams have good backfields, but Gilman is the best RB in the conference; his production behind a poor OL is pretty incredible.

MSU is better at RB. Gillman is good and you can argue he’s better than Davis or Jones but MSU’s situation at RB is better.

[MrGoodKat]

RB: Griz

Both teams have good backfields, but Gilman is the best RB in the conference; his production behind a poor OL is pretty incredible.

MSU is better at RB. Gillman is good and you can argue he’s better than Davis or Jones but MSU’s situation at RB is better.

I disagree. It's nothing that anyone can prove, but I think that if you put the UM backs in MSU's system and behind their OL, the rushing production would be even greater for MSU.

[MrGoodKat]

My opinion:

QB: Cats

Ah Yat has a better arm than Lamson, but a lot of his production is schemed and you can see the offense bog down once they're out of their scripted stuff. He also isn't the runner that Lamson is and doesn't take care of the ball as well.

I see Schmidt is trying to say Ah Yat is the leading passer in the FCS. To be clear he leads the FCS in yards passing. He’s 16th in efficiency. His QBR would be much further behind Lamson due to his 1.0 ypc on 47 attempts. He’s not as good as Pinnick either.

Stats are not the whole story, but I find this statistical comparison interesting.

Lamson and Ah Yat have each played 5 conference games. Here's their statistical comparison in those games.

Lamson: 78/112, 70% completion, 1174 yds, 10.5 ypa, 13 TD, 11.6 TD%, 0 INT, 0.0 INT%, 53 Rushes, 231 yds, 4.4 YPC, 4 TD

Ah Yat: 98/155, 63% completion, 1322 yds, 8.5 ypa, 8 TD, 5.2 TD%, 3 INT, 1.9 INT%, 28 Rushes, 46 yds, 1.6 YPC, 2 TD

In conference play, Ah Yat has thrown for more passing yards (though Lamson has more total offensive yards), but Lamson has bested him in virtually every other statistical category.

When you restrict the comparison is just conference play, there's not really a comparison between the two starting QB's.

[seataccat]

RB: Griz

Both teams have good backfields, but Gilman is the best RB in the conference; his production behind a poor OL is pretty incredible.

MSU is better at RB. Gillman is good and you can argue he’s better than Davis or Jones but MSU’s situation at RB is better.

I disagree. It's nothing that anyone can prove, but I think that if you put the UM backs in MSU's system and behind their OL, the rushing production would be even greater for MSU.

I think Gillman is the best back for sure but the cats are a bit deeper. I disagree that the cats have better LB's.

[iaafan]

RB: Griz

Both teams have good backfields, but Gilman is the best RB in the conference; his production behind a poor OL is pretty incredible.

MSU is better at RB. Gillman is good and you can argue he’s better than Davis or Jones but MSU’s situation at RB is better.

I disagree. It's nothing that anyone can prove, but I think that if you put the UM backs in MSU's system and behind their OL, the rushing production would be even greater for MSU.

I see how you’re presenting it, but UM isn’t as productive at RB, nor the run game. It’s not an edge to have players that are better if they’re not more productive. I think that needs to be acknowledged.

[iaafan]

RB: Griz

Both teams have good backfields, but Gilman is the best RB in the conference; his production behind a poor OL is pretty incredible.

MSU is better at RB. Gillman is good and you can argue he’s better than Davis or Jones but MSU’s situation at RB is better.

I disagree. It's nothing that anyone can prove, but I think that if you put the UM backs in MSU's system and behind their OL, the rushing production would be even greater for MSU.

I think Gillman is the best back for sure but the cats are a bit deeper. I disagree that the cats have better LB's.

In what way are they better?

[seataccat]

RB: Griz

Both teams have good backfields, but Gilman is the best RB in the conference; his production behind a poor OL is pretty incredible.

MSU is better at RB. Gillman is good and you can argue he’s better than Davis or Jones but MSU’s situation at RB is better.

I disagree. It's nothing that anyone can prove, but I think that if you put the UM backs in MSU's system and behind their OL, the rushing production would be even greater for MSU.

I think Gillman is the best back for sure but the cats are a bit deeper. I disagree that the cats have better LB's.

In what way are they better?

Yea it's definitely subjective especially because they play in two different defensive schemes. The cats 4-2-5 considering they have the stronger defensive line the LB's are hole fillers and don't have as many opportunities to shine. Less blitzing, less edge responsibility and maybe even less pass coverage responsibilities over the middle.
The griz run an over under modified 3-3-5 front and a lot of twisting stunts, the LB's are more relied on playing scrape. Tolbert has 59 tackles and plays cover over the middle well. Peyton Wing has four sacks.
So maybe the griz players have more opportunities to be impressive compared to the cats. I think they have impacted more games so I think they have the edge.
Why do you think the cats have a better RB situation? Purely depth?

[catsrback76]

RB: Griz

Both teams have good backfields, but Gilman is the best RB in the conference; his production behind a poor OL is pretty incredible.

MSU is better at RB. Gillman is good and you can argue he’s better than Davis or Jones but MSU’s situation at RB is better.

I disagree. It's nothing that anyone can prove, but I think that if you put the UM backs in MSU's system and behind their OL, the rushing production would be even greater for MSU.

I think Gillman is the best back for sure but the cats are a bit deeper. I disagree that the cats have better LB's.

In what way are they better?

Yea it's definitely subjective especially because they play in two different defensive schemes. The cats 4-2-5 considering they have the stronger defensive line the LB's are hole fillers and don't have as many opportunities to shine. Less blitzing, less edge responsibility and maybe even less pass coverage responsibilities over the middle.
The griz run an over under modified 3-3-5 front and a lot of twisting stunts, the LB's are more relied on playing scrape. Tolbert has 59 tackles and plays cover over the middle well. Peyton Wing has four sacks.
So maybe the griz players have more opportunities to be impressive compared to the cats. I think they have impacted more games so I think they have the edge.
Why do you think the cats have a better RB situation? Purely depth?

The simple answer is to look at the backfield production of um and MSU and the numbers don’t lie.

[seataccat]

RB: Griz

Both teams have good backfields, but Gilman is the best RB in the conference; his production behind a poor OL is pretty incredible.

MSU is better at RB. Gillman is good and you can argue he’s better than Davis or Jones but MSU’s situation at RB is better.

I disagree. It's nothing that anyone can prove, but I think that if you put the UM backs in MSU's system and behind their OL, the rushing production would be even greater for MSU.

I think Gillman is the best back for sure but the cats are a bit deeper. I disagree that the cats have better LB's.

In what way are they better?

Yea it's definitely subjective especially because they play in two different defensive schemes. The cats 4-2-5 considering they have the stronger defensive line the LB's are hole fillers and don't have as many opportunities to shine. Less blitzing, less edge responsibility and maybe even less pass coverage responsibilities over the middle.
The griz run an over under modified 3-3-5 front and a lot of twisting stunts, the LB's are more relied on playing scrape. Tolbert has 59 tackles and plays cover over the middle well. Peyton Wing has four sacks.
So maybe the griz players have more opportunities to be impressive compared to the cats. I think they have impacted more games so I think they have the edge.
Why do you think the cats have a better RB situation? Purely depth?

The simple answer is to look at the backfield production of um and MSU and the numbers don’t lie.

It may be that simple but there are a few other variables that could affect how many yards the backfield produces. Not sure if I agree that the numbers are everything.

[MrGoodKat]

RB: Griz

Both teams have good backfields, but Gilman is the best RB in the conference; his production behind a poor OL is pretty incredible.

MSU is better at RB. Gillman is good and you can argue he’s better than Davis or Jones but MSU’s situation at RB is better.

I disagree. It's nothing that anyone can prove, but I think that if you put the UM backs in MSU's system and behind their OL, the rushing production would be even greater for MSU.

I see how you’re presenting it, but UM isn’t as productive at RB, nor the run game. It’s not an edge to have players that are better if they’re not more productive. I think that needs to be acknowledged.

Aren't they?

UM's top 2 rushers-- Gilman and Wortham-- have rushed 192 times for 1202 yards, 6.3 YPC.

MSU's top 2 rushers-- Davis and Jones-- have rushed 187 times for 1146 yards, 6.1 YPC.

MSU's total rushing stats are better, but that's largely impacted by the fact that they get rushing production out of the QB position where UM does not, and they're overall a superior team that wins by larger margins, meaning that they're salting games away running Coon or White.

Now I am not at all trying to tear down Davis and Jones. They're great backs and it's a great backfield. But I think we all agree that the MSU OL is quite a bit better than the UM OL. And I believe that OL play is actually the most important factor to a successful rushing attack. RB play is obviously important, but it's secondary to the quality of the blocking. For example-- the Bison have had a dominant rushing attack for upwards of a decade, and while they have put a few RB's into the NFL, it's their offensive linemen that get drafted highly and end up as starters.

So I look at the rushing production at UM-- especially from Gilman-- and see production that, among the top players, is on par with MSU and yet is being created behind a lesser line.

I actually think it's a feather in MSU's cap that it's such a close call. They lost their best back to UNM, while the Griz didn't lose anyone. You'd think it would be a very easy call in light of that, but MSU's depth has meant that it's still fairly comparable.

[MrGoodKat]

One more interesting comparison.

The Cats and Griz have both played 5 BSC games, they have both played 2 games at home and 3 on the road, and their collective opponents' records are an identical 18-27.

In those conference games, the Cats are +177 points in scoring differential, good for 35.4 PPG. Their smallest margin was the 17 point victory over CP.

In their conference games, the Griz are +79 points in scoring differential, good for 15.8 PPG. Their smallest margin was their 4 point victory over ISU.

Here's an offense/defense breakdown in BSC play.

The Griz have scored 198 points in five conference games, good for 39.6 PPG.

They have allowed 129 points in those same games, or 25.8 PPG.

The Cats have scored 228 points in five conference games, good for 45.6 PPG.

They have allowed 51 points in those same games, or 10.2 PPG.

Here's why this is interesting to me:

A lot of the discourse around the Cat/Griz comparison so far this season has focused on SOS. Griz fans have obviously (and fairly) highlighted that UM is undefeated and the Cats have two losses. Cat fans have responded that they've played a tougher schedule. The response to that (again, I think fairly) is that the stronger SOS is basically based on the Oregon game, which is basically irrelevant.

So my suggestion is throw the OOC play out altogether and just focus on what's truly comparable: conference play. The SOS in-conference between the Cats and the Griz is literally identical. And what it reveals is that MSU is a substantially better performing team. That's even true in regards to offense, where the narrative in the media right now definitely favors the Griz. The Cats are almost a touchdown better and then obviously on the defensive side, they're 2.5 times better in terms of points allowed.

I think this is getting lost in a lot of the coverage of the team teams.

[WalkOn79]

One more interesting comparison.

The Cats and Griz have both played 5 BSC games, they have both played 2 games at home and 3 on the road, and their collective opponents' records are an identical 18-27.

In those conference games, the Cats are +177 points in scoring differential, good for 35.4 PPG. Their smallest margin was the 17 point victory over CP.

In their conference games, the Griz are +79 points in scoring differential, good for 15.8 PPG. Their smallest margin was their 4 point victory over ISU.

Here's an offense/defense breakdown in BSC play.

The Griz have scored 198 points in five conference games, good for 39.6 PPG.

They have allowed 129 points in those same games, or 25.8 PPG.

The Cats have scored 228 points in five conference games, good for 45.6 PPG.

They have allowed 51 points in those same games, or 10.2 PPG.

Here's why this is interesting to me:

A lot of the discourse around the Cat/Griz comparison so far this season has focused on SOS. Griz fans have obviously (and fairly) highlighted that UM is undefeated and the Cats have two losses. Cat fans have responded that they've played a tougher schedule. The response to that (again, I think fairly) is that the stronger SOS is basically based on the Oregon game, which is basically irrelevant.

So my suggestion is throw the OOC play out altogether and just focus on what's truly comparable: conference play. The SOS in-conference between the Cats and the Griz is literally identical. And what it reveals is that MSU is a substantially better performing team. That's even true in regards to offense, where the narrative in the media right now definitely favors the Griz. The Cats are almost a touchdown better and then obviously on the defensive side, they're 2.5 times better in terms of points allowed.

I think this is getting lost in a lot of the coverage of the team teams.

Yep, and in conference at least for now you have the same number of home and away and like opponents save a few. SOS is much less of a factor in the conference race and team comparison.

[coloradocat]

Points allowed by quarter in conference games:

Cats
Q1 - 2.8
Q2 - 2.6
Q3 - 0.0
Q4 - 4.8

griz
Q1 - 4.0
Q2 - 10.0
Q3 - 5.8
Q4 - 6.0

[coloradocat]

Points scored by quarter in conference games:

Cats
Q1 - 9.6
Q2 - 13.8
Q3 - 11.0
Q4 - 11.2

griz
Q1 - 9.6
Q2 - 9.2
Q3 - 7.6
Q4 - 13.2