Welcome to another series of the Path to the Playoffs. This is my sixth year of writing these weekly posts. This year I took off the dual title of “Path to the Natty” since it seems I was overly optimistic last year and don’t want to oversell the theme! I still have no time in my schedule for the 6-8 hours it takes me each week to read, listen and put thoughts on paper. But there is nothing better to do at midnight.
I started late this year for a few reasons – all lame.
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1) We did not play in Week 0.
2) I knew the Oregon game would be nothing to write home about (and I went with my wife and took a 6-day vacation which leads to reason #3.)
3) I had no time before the SDSU game between work and getting back from Oregon.
4) Finally, I just got behind and game #4 (MH) did not thrill me.
For anyone new, here is a quick reminder of what “Path to the Playoffs (PTTP)” is and is not:
What PTTP is not:
• Not an examination of play calling and players strengths and weaknesses. I am not that smart of a football guru and I really don’t know much about zone read; inside zone; 4-3-4 defenses; etc. Just enough to be dangerous. I leave position assessments and play calling analysis to others.
• Not an in-depth analysis of the Cat’s strengths and weaknesses and how they should execute their game plan on even given week or what exactly they need to do the following week. I do provide overviews.
• Not focused just on the Cats in terms of the details. I leave that to excellent Bobcat focused podcasts and many posts by fans more knowledgeable than me.
What PTTP is:
• An aggregation of articles; podcasts; and game footage from knowledgeable journalists, podcasters, writers, and influencers. PTTP includes my thoughts and musings on playoff positioning; seedings; strength of schedule, etc. I try to listen to 3-5 podcasts a week about other conferences and general FCS game summaries as well as read 5-15 articles a week as well as watch 3-5 Big Sky and/or FCS games each Saturday (at least skim some of the important games that might be on ESPN +).
• A synopsis of other teams; their rankings and strengths; how teams in the playoff hunt did and how it might affect the Cats in the playoff hunt.
• A weekly set of statistics from the top teams with regard to overall ranking as well as offensive and defensive rankings in the FCS relative to the Cats.
• The goal is to understand the best way for the Cats to win the Big Sky title; get a high seed in the playoffs and get to the national championship.
• Occasional ramblings; predictions; evaluations; and random thoughts regarding performances of The Cats; other Big Sky teams and the top teams in the FCS.
Weekly Components: Typically, each week will contain most but not all of these assorted topics. Some topics will not start with my first post but later in the season when enough data is available.
1) Who was Impressive and who was not in last week’s game:
Look at the top ranked teams and how they did on that particular Saturday.
2) Who we want to lose each week.
As the season progresses, which teams do we want to win and lose in order to improve the Cats overall seeding (which we definitely need help this year.)
3) A Summary of last week’s games in the Big Sky
4) Big Sky Game predictions for the following week based on nothing but random feelings and a few statistics.
5) As we get further into the season,
.....a. Chart of Offense/Defense rankings
.....b. Aggregate Rating System chart – after week 4 or so weeks. (The CAT-P!)
.....c. Discussion of top teams in the FCS and playoff seeding predictions – A much bigger deal this year as we start up in a big hole!
6) Overview of this week’s game for the Cats.
Let’s get started – even though we are at already at Week 5. Oh, one more caveat/adjustment. For the next 2-3 weeks I will skip some sections due to lack of time and lack of clarity about who are really good teams. Too many teams with similar records or situations.
Big Sky Preseason Polls
Well, if we didn’t start off with the kiss of death by being voted #1 in the coaches and media poll. Sure, it seems we have a good team; even elite (wrote this part after week 2). But as I pointed out last year, being picked as the #1 team in the preseason poll almost guarantees you will not be #1 at the end of the year. Call it superstition; call it poor prediction capability by the media; call it gremlins; call it dumb luck. Last year was no exception. Gris picked as #1 and ended up in the 5th spot. In fact, in the last five years, the #1 preseason pick in the Big Sky has NEVER finished #1 and on average they finish 3.5 spots below -- meaning being picked #1 results in ending the season as the fourth or fifth best team in the conference. What a slide from grace every year.
CLICK TO ENLARGE THE CHART
Initial Evaluation of Possible Top 8 Seeded Playoff Teams
Let’s jump on this topic right out of the gate. I know it is early but all the podcasts talk about “national title contenders” and “Top 8 seeds” almost every week. Seems like fun. My list is the teams of interest right now with respect to the Cats securing a Top 8, if not a Top 4 seed in the playoffs. I don’t include the middle and lower tier of the Big Sky which we will examine each week due to their large influence on the top tier Big Sky team records and how our SOS stacks up against other potential seeded teams.
Listed here are my Top 10-15 teams who as of this week have a strong, reasonable or possible chance of getting a Top 8 seed in the playoffs. I will flip the list into a chart in the next week or two to track as the season progresses. My assessment is not necessarily based on the best 8 teams but rather how I see the teams working their way through the season with strength of schedule, home field advantage, starting spot in the polls, etc. The list will shift as the year goes on but I feel comfortable this initial group will include at least 5 of the top 8 teams come Selection Sunday. A few comments on each team with a lot more elaboration coming after each week.
Almost Certainly Top 8
NDSU: Hard to see them slipping up. Truly a powerhouse. They have crushed their first three inferior opponents. This week’s game against South Dakota will speak volumes but I imagine the Yotes will be going home with their tail between their legs.
SDSU: No FBS game; have looked strong in every game; by beating MSU at home they have a tie breaker for any Top 4 seed. (Both NDSU and SDSU team could be 11-1 or 12-0. Few roadblocks in their way).
Tarleton State: Crushing all opponents. How Good? 10-2 seems the floor. Maybe too easy of a schedule but averaging 47 points a game, giving up 13 and beating Army puts them in rarified air. They might end up undefeated or with only 1 loss.
Likely
MSU: Why not in the “almost certainly”? Partially out of caution, partly out of fear that some weaker teams will have better on paper resumes; and partly it seems possible we could be 8-4. More on that later.
Ill. State: Tough MVFC schedule may kick them down the path. Their QB is the real deal but it has been years since Ill. State has challenged for a top seed.
Gris: 8 home games? Road games at ISU, Sac St, Weber and PSU? More later but 11-0 going into The Brawl is entirely possible. The UND game might be one of the toughest games the Gris will face (the other being Idaho) before the Brawl. If Griz win this weekend, they will pass the Cats in the polls and stay a solid 3rd/4th for weeks.
50-50
UC Davis: Lost a ton of offensive fire power. Did not look great in their 2 games and 1 “non-game”. Still not enough info.
Rhode Island: Someone outside of the MVFC/Big Sky other than Tarleton State has to get a seed. But without a stronger scoring offense Rhody may end up 9-3 which is not going to get you a Top 4 or Top 8 seed this year.
Idaho: Needs some defense; lots of defense. Hard to see them as good as they were last year. I am skeptical they nab a Top 8 but still very early.
Southern Illinois: DJ Williams, the Saluki’s dynamic QB, is lighting up the opposition. They could go 9-3 with a couple of big wins in the Missouri Valley.
Outliers
South Dakota: One bad coaching call from Ed Lamb keeps them from 1-3. Not sure they will recover. They may drop out of the Top 25 if they have a bad showing in the Fargo Dome
Monmouth: Seriously? Well, look at their record (3-1 with only a close FBS loss); their points per game (44) and their QB (1,640 yards passing or 410 ypg). Sure, not against top competition, but they could easily be 11-1 and win the CAA. They would get a Top 8 seed in that scenario.
Tennessee Tech: True dark horse for Top 8. Averaging 60 points a game and another team with great QB Play (no less than Visperas of Eastern Washington last year). I need to see more from them though.
Finally, teams that could win 10 Plus games this year (More about schedules for some rather than saying they are a top 4 team).
• NDSU
• SDSU
• Monmouth
• Tarleton State
• Rhode Island
• Gris
• Tennessee Tech
WHO WE WANT TO LOSE
Welcome to the first installment of “Who we want to Lose”, the sidebar where we take more of a vindictive, revengeful look at the games focusing on the teams we want to lose. While all in fun, the main focus is on teams that improve the Bobcats playoff seeding by losing key games. This year with the Cats starting at 2-2, the Who We Want to Lose (WWWL) segment may take on additional meaning. Landing a top 4 or even top 8 seed may be much harder if teams like Tarleton State or the Griz rack up a 11-1 or lord forbid a 12-0 season with a low SOS.
Each week I pick games I believe have a chance of going our way. I am not predicting nor do most of these games break our way. But it is fun to see the ones that do break our way and the impact lady luck has on the final seeding. You only have to look at the first season of the Cats rise in 2018 and see how nearly a dozen games broke our way in the last two weeks to allow us to get in the playoffs at 7-5. Ok, let’s look at the week.
A combination of conference and non-conference games this week. Most of the MVFC on a bye but a couple of good games. Here are the best ones that impact seeding at the end of the season.
1) Rhode Island @ W Michigan – Even though this is an FCS/FBS game, Western Michigan is not particularly good. Rhode Island might pull it out. But we don’t like URI (See 1984) and we want fewer bids from the CAA. URI TO LOSE.
2) South Dakota @ NDSU – This is a key early game. Rather surprisingly, USD has beaten NDSU more times in the last 10 years than any other team than SDSU. But this year is not last year. But we always want NDSU to lose.
3) ACU @ UIW – UIW was thought to be so good this year. They will be a top 5 or top 3 team this year. If they lose to ACU, UIW will be 1-4 and basically out of the playoffs UNLES they win the Southland outright. UIW to lose.
4) Mercer @ ETSU – These are two of the top competitors for the championship of the Southern conference. Both of these teams have had a rough start to the season but the whole Southern conference has lost a ton of non-conference games. I think Mercer is the biggest threat right now for a top 8 seed so Mercer to Lose.
5) Idaho @ Gris – Our premier WWWTL game this week. There are reasons for either team to lose. We don’t play Idaho so if they win this game, who is going to beat them? But I don’t think Idaho is very good so we need them to pull off an upset to keep the Gris down. But can I really ask for the Gris to win a game this early? Never. Gris to Lose.
Evaluations of Big Sky Teams
Hopefully, I will have posted my chart of Big Sky game predictions by Saturday morning. Last year, I was 38-10 over the 9 weeks of conference play. I don’t bet on games but it seems like that would be a pretty good track record (80%). But of course, not much money to be made if I am not predicting the spread since betting on winners is not the most challenging task and pays little if you can even find a line and a place to bet in Montana.
My initial evaluation is based on the team’s last year play, their place in the polls, the performance on the field in their first 3-4 games; game film I watched and just plain best guess. Because frankly none of us know how it will gel over the season and there are always surprises. Where I know little, I admit it. The order here is a rough predicted order of finish but I am not yet inserting the Cats into the list.
Gris – Really don’t mean to produce any fodder for eee-Gris. In any case, I doubt any Gris fans read through my posts as they are longer than 4-5 sentences! LOL. I watched some of their games. I think Gris are better than we think they would be. Gillman is a great running back and frankly, I thought he should have been BSC Preseason Offensive Player of the Year. Already, he has 400 yards rushing and 6 TDs. Now, given the Gris schedule, (they don’t play Davis or NAU) and they have 8 home games, I believe the worse record they will have going into the Brawl is 9-2 and more likely 10-1 or 11-0. This is going to firmly put them into Top 4 seed discussion. I think UND might be pretty good and if Gris get by Idaho this week (even in a bizarre game that Bobby pulls out of his hat at the end), they will likely go undefeated until 11/22. They simply don’t play anyone. But I will say, that also doesn’t mean they are a great team due to their soft schedule. Time will tell.
Davis – Davis was the victim of a stupid decision to declare their first game persona non-grata. Maybe for the better? First half they looked great, second half not so much. Mercer might have won based on them driving. Then against their next two FCS opponents (Utah Tech and Southern Utah), Davis didn’t exactly cruise. They struggled against Utah Tech and had to come from behind to win. SUU was close midway in the 3rd before Davis pulled away. I do think their signal caller, Pinnick, has a great arm and decent skills. But he is young and makes mistakes. I think Davis will be good but they really haven’t played a decent FCS team so knowledge is limited. Their first couple of games against Weber and Cal Poly may not show us much of anything as well. It might be mid-season before we know if Davis is a competitor for the BSC crown.
NAU – The Jacks are 3-1 and look pretty darn good. Losing to #11 Arizona State was no shame there. Then NAU squeaked out a victory against Utah Tech at home and then beat Southern Utah on their home field. Finally, their win against UIW was a ranked win against a team that has perennially been in the Top 10 (although this year is a big question mark.) NAU was projected to be 4th or 5th in the Big Sky in most polls and started at #19 and have moved up only to #15. Sure seems to me this is early voter bias. Ty Pennington is the real deal and I am concerned about the Cats game at NAU in early October. But glaringly, what sticks out like the Jolly Green Giant in a field of wheat is NAU’s defense and it is lacking. They gave up 300 yards to Utah Tech (no garbage time yards in that game), nearly 450 yards to SUU and 436 to UIW. I watched the SUU game late into the night and it really came down to who had the ball last because defense was an afterthought for both teams. It seems Coach Wright’s approach is we will simply outscore the opponent regardless of the point total. This will work against the Utah Tech and Portland State’s of the FCS but far less sure how it holds up against Davis, Idaho and the Cats. But I think NAU could prove to be a wildcard with their offense.
Idaho – At 2-2, some see Idaho as a strong team well positioned to make a run for the BSC title. While they performed well against Washington State and San Jose State and could have won either game, their other two games at home against inferior opponents were underwhelming. ST Thomas had an honest chance to beat Idaho and just lacked some defensive stops. Utah Tech hung around for the entire game until about 6 minutes left. I watched most of Idaho’s two FCS games and I was somewhat unimpressed. Their offense looks ok and somewhat balanced but the Taters defense needs some work. Some of the question marks about their record must be measured against the quality of opponents. WSU beat San Diego State but San Diego is predicted to be at the bottom of the Mountain West. WSU was crushed by North Texas who was ranked 8th in the middling AAC. This weekend against the Gris will be the truth serum. What a draw to start the season.
Sac State – Run and Gun? Go-Go offense? Really? One week I read a headline from the Sacramento area saying something like “The Go-Go offense found it groove against…. Mercyhurst?”. Sac State was ahead by only 1 score up to the last 3 minutes when they scored twice. Their first two games generated 3 and 17 points (against Nevada which is like one of the worst FBS teams west of the Mississippi. (Sorry Coach Choate! – 25 FCS teams ranked ahead of you in Sagarin). But then they dumped their 4-star QB and moved on to #2, which is a solid improvement. But just when I am criticizing Sac, they handle Central Arkansas easily last week and put up 600 yards of offense. Even Sac’s defense looked better. But again, UCA does not seem to have its act together this year. Sac benefits from not playing MSU but I think something like 8-4 might be the ceiling. And as of today, Sac State has 2 games scheduled for 2026. Where goeth all those hot 3- and 4-star recruits when they find out their schedule is filled out next year with Chadron State, Lincoln (Ca); and Eastern Oregon. Cause no one else is going to schedule them – out of spite; out of fear; out of their minds…Seems like they have put themselves in a box.
UNC – Wow, is this team for real? Only a terrible referee call at the end of the Colorado State game and Lamb’s decision to run three times up the middle and then kick a field goal at end of regulation against USD kept UNC from being 4-0 with an FBS victory. Now they are 2-2 after beating Houston Christian. Is this really your dad’s Oldsmobile? Could be a fluke and UNC could end up 3-9 come the snow flies. But they do play EWU and PSU so maybe they get to 4-8… unless they really a team on the rise. Won’t know until about week 6.
Weber State – We know nothing about Weber. Lost big to two mediocre FBS teams and squeaked by McNeese State who was picked 6th in the Southland just above a quartet of bottom feeders. Not sure Weber has made any significant improvements. They face a horrid conference schedule facing the top 6 teams in the Big Sky preseason poll. Hard to see anything better than 5-7 or 6-6. Mickey Mental is on the ropes for sure.
ISU – Don’t know what to think about Idaho State and their direction. Made some strides last year as the 4th year of Coach Hawkins. So far this year, they lost to two FBS teams and Southern Utah and then beat Lincoln (CA) 90-0. Not sure that score makes any sense. Read about Lincoln (CA) on the net and decide if they should even be fielding a team. It is disturbing that ISU can call this a win. NAU played them last year. So that said, we know nothing about ISU and they have no legitimate wins yet. Maybe they are 6-6 this year… maybe
(https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2 ... 320308007/).
EWU – Sadly, Eastern is a shell of its former shelf. What happened? Best speculation lays with the lack of funding at Eastern and the narrow vote a few years ago to keep the football program at the FCS level. Then their top QB leaves for Tenn. Tech and the wheels are already off the bus. I see maybe 3 or 4 wins by year-end and even that requires some 50/50 games to go their way. Defense is non-existent (where are all the stout Big Sky defenses of the past?) and their offense looks anemic although they put up points last week. Maybe I won’t think so anemic after this weekend. EWU always seems to play the Cats tough.
Cal Poly – Poly is 2-2 with a DII win and a win over San Diego. Their first four conference games are Sac State, Davis, Gris and the Cats. High probability they will be 2-6 moving into their last four games. Not much more to say – still not on the upswing.
PSU –What can be said about PeeSU? They might just be the true bottom feeder replacing Northern Colorado who actually seems ok. PSU played in week 0 so they got the benefit of being the first team to 0-4. Now that is a trophy I would like to see in the Trophy case! It doesn’t get much easier for PSU and I could see an 0-8 start and even a winless season. Maybe the powers to be will shutdown the program this year claiming they need the soccer field for 8th grade soccer leagues. Would be more fans there for sure.
BIG SKY SEASON PREDICTIONS
Ok, changed my mind and stayed up late Thursday Night after 5 day vacation (Thought I said I was too busy at work the last few weeks??) and did my entire season Big Sky Conference predictions – team by team; game by game. Not much for comments except I expect the Cats to drop EITHER NAU or Gris game. I also went with few upsets but reserve the right to make changes as the season goes on. I make predictions about playoff chances in the chart as well. More comments later.
CLICK TO ENLARGE THE CHARTS
Who are the Cats?
Ok, my assessment is just my observation after attending all four games in person, listening to over 20 podcasts over the summer and last four weeks and watching about 20 FCS games the last 2-3 weeks. As I have expressed many times, I am cautious by nature (that means glass half full) when it comes to football (exactly the opposite when it comes to investing – go figure).
MercyHurst - In the MercyHurst thread, there was a reference to FCS Central’s weekly article by Timothy Rosario on Success Rate. I have been reading these weekly posts by Rosario since he started them a year or so ago. The premise is all statistically based and tied to offensive success. The Cats had the #6 success rate last week as measured by Rosario. When I left the MH game, I thought the offense was poor and the defense was great. I mean, the defense pitched a shutout and the offense only had 17 points. But when you dig into the numbers, it is all about opportunities. The offense really only had 5 possessions and scored on 3 of them and should have scored on 4 out of 5. Rosario points out that in a normal game with normal number of possessions, the score would have been 37-0. So really, the offense did pretty darn well and the defense was the weak spot of the game even though they pitched a shutout. The defense couldn’t get off the field and it didn’t give the offense an opportunity to put points on the board.
#1 O-Line? Sam Herder of Hero Sports rated the Cats as the #1 Offensive Line in the FCS. Pretty sure I don’t think that is the case. I don’t know enough about football but clearly the line is young and misses Wehr and Moore. The run game is a disappointment. If we erase the Oregon game from the stats, we have 216,220 and 233 YPG subtracting out sacks. This is 223 per game. Last year in the first four games, we had 325 YPG. This is over 100 YPG difference. While 223 is not a bad number, it is not elite and no breakaway plays.
QB – Lambson is accurate but scrambles too much and holds the ball too long. As many posters and podcasters have pointed out, Lambson is likely a more accurate passer than Tommy was. However, he is no real threat to pull and run. Given that, I am sure why we run so many QB designated runs. Most of his passes, as we have all seen, are mid-range and we have not seen much in terms of successful deep balls. Here’s hoping he is growing into the position this week.
Overall Offense – Last week our 17 points in the game was the lowest of any Big Sky team last week (tied with Cal Poly). In fact, it was way lower than the average points scored last weekend (44 points average. Even if you take away the Bengals game against the Oakland JVs, the average was 38). Last time the Cats scored only 17 points or less against an unranked non-conference FCS team was 2007 when they beat Southern Utah 7-3 when SUU was not part of the Big Sky. That was 18 years ago.
Defense – Hard to say. Seems like our defense is solid but still unknown if they are as elite as some say. 24 total points in regulation or 8 ppg. This is certainly an elite statistic. We have created 4 turnovers, which is much better than at this time last year. Yards per game are fairly low as well. And certainly, a couple of great red zone results. But our ability to get QB pressure and sacks is not up to par. But what do I know?
My overall take this early? Offense is struggling to find its identity. Big Sky teams are going to stack the box and dare us to throw down field. They see we don’t have the explosive play potential we had last year and sense our O-line is not as elite as advertised. On defense, the opponents will throw the ball as often as possible. EWU knows they can’t run a ton against our front seven but they see weakness in the secondary. I would not be surprised if Eastern throws the ball 30-40 times. They figure the best chance they have is to outscore us because our offense is not going to put up 40-50 points like last year. NAU will have the same strategy regardless of the outcome this weekend.
This week’s game? Cats – 27, Eastern – 24. Our defense holds them off in the critical situations.
Go Cats!
