BB Bracketology

[BleedingBLue]

There is still a lot of football to be played with 3 weeks left, but things are starting to become more clear. The MVFC and BSC are top and bottom heavy this year. Not much in the middle of the road, which will probably lead to 4 bids for each conference. The CAA being so huge may lead to 6 teams getting in. The Southern Conference is once again eating itself, and poor OOC performance will probably limit them to 2 bids. Further thoughts on the field and the possibilities below my bracket.



Big Sky - The top 4 teams are top 15 teams. Nobody else is too good. NAU has a good chance to finish 8-4, but they have a DII win, and despite an SOS of 28, they will have no ranked wins. I think they will be on the outside looking in. It would be entirely possible the Cats get the #1 since we are undefeated, honestly not sure how the committee would look at that. The North Dakota win won't be a resume builder any longer for NDSU by selection Sunday, which would help our case. I am predicting the Gris to beat Davis this weekend, and even losing Cat/Griz they would have ranked wins over UC-Davis, Western Carolina and NAU, plus a quality win (ineligible to be ranked in the Stats poll) over Missouri State (9-3 or 8-4 finish likely for MO St.). SOS of 20 plus those wins gets them a 4-6 seed depending on other outcomes. I've got Idaho as a seed as well on the back of a SOS of 7, and ranked wins against NAU and playoff team Abilene Christian, as well as an FBS win. The close loss to UC-Davis won't hurt them, and the committee will look at their loss against us more favorably as they didn't have Layne, and it was on the road. No bad losses. UC-Davis could be in the seed discussion in this scenario, but only 1 ranked win would hurt them. How they lose to UM and MSU could help them though.

Big South - OVC - SEMO has a good chance at winning out and being undefeated against the FCS. 2 ranked wins will help their case, but a SOS of 82 will most likely hurt. They could be the 4 seed, but my predictions have Mercer and Montana with better resumes. UT - Martin would be one of the few bubble teams at 8-4 with more than one ranked win, as they also have an FBS win.

CAA - What a crap storm this conference is causing. There is a really good chance they have 6 teams finish 8-4 or better, and a decent chance at least 5 finish 9-3 or better. Teams that beat Delaware won't get that as a ranked win since they are ineligible, but it will be a quality win and boost the resume. The problem this year, so many of the top teams only play one or two of the other top teams. Stony Brook is the unexpected team playing really well this year in the CAA. Seems to happen in that conference every year. They will make it so either they, or whoever they beat are a ranked win, and add to the perceived strength of the CAA. I've got Rhode Island getting a seed based on a 10-1 record against the FCS, and a decent SOS of 31. A ranked win over New Hampshire helps their resume, and the loss I am predicting to Delaware won't hurt them. The rest of the CAA teams in the field won't have more than a couple ranked wins, although Villanova does have a chance to end the year with 3, plus a win over Delaware. They could push back into the seed conversation.

MVFC - As mentioned above, similar to the BSC, this conference is top and bottom heavy, no middle. North Dakota's back-to-back surprising losses has nearly killed their playoff hopes with SDSU, USD and Illinois State coming up to round out the season. The bad thing for the MVFC is they now have a good chance to end the season 5-7 or 6-6 and unranked. A win over UND helps nobody in the end in that case. The team it hurts to most is South Dakota. In my bracket, even at 8-3 (7-2 FCS), South Dakota would have no ranked wins, unless Pioneer champ Drake makes it into the top 25 by season's end. Even with a SOS of 9, they would have no resume building wins, thus missing out on a seed. Illinois State would sneak in by being 5-3 in conference and being in the best conference in the country, despite no ranked wins.

NEC - The winner of the Robert Morris - Duquesne matchup this weekend will probably be the conference champ. I have Robert Morris winning.

Patriot - Holy Cross has a leg up right now, so I have them in.

Pioneer - Drake looks to be the team to beat.

Southern - Mercer, outside their one hiccup, looks to be cruising to the top. They do have Western Carolina coming up, which could shake things up. Right now I have them as the champs and 4 seed. They could be anywhere in the 4-6 seed range depending on how the committee looks at their SOS of 58. The Western Carolina - Chattanooga game this last weekend was probably an elimination game. Chattanooga doesn't have a shot at any further ranked wins this year and will most likely be left in the cold. Western Carolina has a SOS of 26 and a win over ranked Chattanooga. Even if they lose to Mercer, they should still be comfortably in. Their loss to UM will look ok as well.

Southland - Just not a very good conference any longer. It would behoove them to entice Central Arkansas and Abilene Christian to come back, and try to get Tarleton on board. As it stands now, Incarnate Word is the only team looking like they will get in. They will be in the seed discussion, but a bad loss to Southern Illinois and a SOS of 53 will probably hurt them. One ranked win over NAU, and maybe a ranked win over Nicholls will help. Stephen F. Austin may be the only other team to get a look, but a DII win will likely keep them out.

United - Possibly the 4th best conference in the country, there is a good chance they get two teams in, maybe three. Central Arkansas shot themselves in the foot losing to Dixie (I mean Utah) Tech on Saturday. The conference is now Tarleton's to lose. They also lost to a not as bad Eastern Kentucky, but still have ACU and UCA to play. Tarleton is in the seed discussion, but the EKU loss will hurt. Wins over ACU and UCA would help, but the SOS of 45 may hold them back. ACU should be in with a ranked win over UCA, a close loss to Idaho and an SOS of 27.

[Montanabob]

davis beats the griz and they flip

[Bocephus]

Is Mercer as good as advertised?

[BleedingBLue]

davis beats the griz and they flip

I think SEMO moves up in that case, and Davis gets the 6 seed.

[BleedingBLue]

Is Mercer as good as advertised?

I think so. They're winning and doing it in a decent conference. They aren't in the same conversation as the top 3, but I do think they would win their round 2 game and give any seeds 4-8 a good game.

[Prodigal Cat]

Through no fault of their own the NDSU grip on the number one seed isn't what it was a few weeks ago.
ETSU falls to unranked
UND has lost 2 straight and is staring both South Dakota schools in the face.
SIU is bad bad bad
The Bison's resume really only has 3 potential quality wins. USD, SDSU, and a eh Illinois State.

Cats could end up with 3 top 10ish wins and an FBS win. I don't think its unreasonable that they jump the Bison for the 1 seed if they win all the games left going away.

[BleedingBLue]

Through no fault of their own the NDSU grip on the number one seed isn't what it was a few weeks ago.
ETSU falls to unranked
UND has lost 2 straight and is staring both South Dakota schools in the face.
SIU is bad bad bad
The Bison's resume really only has 3 potential quality wins. USD, SDSU, and a eh Illinois State.

Cats could end up with 3 top 10ish wins and an FBS win. I don't think its unreasonable that they jump the Bison for the 1 seed if they win all the games left going away.

Totally agree. Towson has a chance to make it back into the Top 25, which would help NDSU, but it's far less certain they'd be #1 over a 12-0 Cats team. Their win over Missouri State (assuming they win that one) is also a resume booster even though they can't be ranked in the Stats poll.

[Catprint]

Southern - Mercer, outside their one hiccup, looks to be cruising to the top. They do have Western Carolina coming up, which could shake things up.

1) Not exactly sure where the schedule mistake is but Mercer played Western Carolina two weeks ago and beat them 44-34 in a shoot out. Maybe you meant Furman?
2) Mercer will have a bad FBS loss to Alabama but doubt that hurts their chances to get a seed.
3) The real question for the playoffs is Mercer's run defense really that good? Mercer is giving up 54.3 yards per game including games where they held teams to 40, 29, 19, 16, and 13 yards. Those numbers are simply absurd. Hold a team to 13 yards on 30 attempts? Why would they even hand the ball off? Granted, no MVFC or Big Sky teams in that mix and I wonder how they will hold up.

[Catprint]

Big Sky - The top 4 teams are top 15 teams. Nobody else is too good. NAU has a good chance to finish 8-4, but they have a DII win, and despite an SOS of 28, they will have no ranked wins. I think they will be on the outside looking in. It would be entirely possible the Cats get the #1 since we are undefeated, honestly not sure how the committee would look at that. The North Dakota win won't be a resume builder any longer for NDSU by selection Sunday, which would help our case. I am predicting the Gris to beat Davis this weekend, and even losing Cat/Griz they would have ranked wins over UC-Davis, Western Carolina and NAU, plus a quality win (ineligible to be ranked in the Stats poll) over Missouri State (9-3 or 8-4 finish likely for MO St.). SOS of 20 plus those wins gets them a 4-6 seed depending on other outcomes. I've got Idaho as a seed as well on the back of a SOS of 7, and ranked wins against NAU and playoff team Abilene Christian, as well as an FBS win. The close loss to UC-Davis won't hurt them, and the committee will look at their loss against us more favorably as they didn't have Layne, and it was on the road. No bad losses. UC-Davis could be in the seed discussion in this scenario, but only 1 ranked win would hurt them. How they lose to UM and MSU could help them though.

Great Bracket and research as usual!! I am doing my bracket after this weeks games but I do have my Top 8 Seeds bracket posted. A couple of thoughts on Big Sky.

1) I think the Gris/Davis game is a toss up. I think if Davis wins, they get a top 4 seed even if they lose to the Cats.
2) Clearly UND's demise will hurt the Top 3 MFVC teams and the Gris in the quest for quality wins. However, I see the committee giving NDSU credit for 6 quality wins and SOS of 5 compared to the Cats with 3 quality wins and SOS of 24. I think the committee played their hand in their early release Top 10 by putting NDSU ahead of an undefeated MSU. They basically said, if they both win out, NDSU gets #1 seed. Don't think it is right; just what I believe they will do. But I hope I am wrong.
3) I agree with you - NAU is not getting in the playoffs even if they win out given all the CAA and UAC teams with more D-1 wins.
4) I don't see an 8-3 Gris team getting the #5 seed. I have SEMO getting the number 5 seed with no FCS losses and Gris getting number 6 or 7. And I would hate to see the bracket you drew up. Gris play Davis at home and Mercer on the road to a crowd of maybe 8,000. This would be an easy path to the Semi's to face NDSU.

[BleedingBLue]

The seeds are wide open now!

[Cats92]

There is still a lot of football to be played with 3 weeks left, but things are starting to become more clear. The MVFC and BSC are top and bottom heavy this year. Not much in the middle of the road, which will probably lead to 4 bids for each conference. The CAA being so huge may lead to 6 teams getting in. The Southern Conference is once again eating itself, and poor OOC performance will probably limit them to 2 bids. Further thoughts on the field and the possibilities below my bracket.



Big Sky - The top 4 teams are top 15 teams. Nobody else is too good. NAU has a good chance to finish 8-4, but they have a DII win, and despite an SOS of 28, they will have no ranked wins. I think they will be on the outside looking in. It would be entirely possible the Cats get the #1 since we are undefeated, honestly not sure how the committee would look at that. The North Dakota win won't be a resume builder any longer for NDSU by selection Sunday, which would help our case. I am predicting the Gris to beat Davis this weekend, and even losing Cat/Griz they would have ranked wins over UC-Davis, Western Carolina and NAU, plus a quality win (ineligible to be ranked in the Stats poll) over Missouri State (9-3 or 8-4 finish likely for MO St.). SOS of 20 plus those wins gets them a 4-6 seed depending on other outcomes. I've got Idaho as a seed as well on the back of a SOS of 7, and ranked wins against NAU and playoff team Abilene Christian, as well as an FBS win. The close loss to UC-Davis won't hurt them, and the committee will look at their loss against us more favorably as they didn't have Layne, and it was on the road. No bad losses. UC-Davis could be in the seed discussion in this scenario, but only 1 ranked win would hurt them. How they lose to UM and MSU could help them though.

Big South - OVC - SEMO has a good chance at winning out and being undefeated against the FCS. 2 ranked wins will help their case, but a SOS of 82 will most likely hurt. They could be the 4 seed, but my predictions have Mercer and Montana with better resumes. UT - Martin would be one of the few bubble teams at 8-4 with more than one ranked win, as they also have an FBS win.

CAA - What a crap storm this conference is causing. There is a really good chance they have 6 teams finish 8-4 or better, and a decent chance at least 5 finish 9-3 or better. Teams that beat Delaware won't get that as a ranked win since they are ineligible, but it will be a quality win and boost the resume. The problem this year, so many of the top teams only play one or two of the other top teams. Stony Brook is the unexpected team playing really well this year in the CAA. Seems to happen in that conference every year. They will make it so either they, or whoever they beat are a ranked win, and add to the perceived strength of the CAA. I've got Rhode Island getting a seed based on a 10-1 record against the FCS, and a decent SOS of 31. A ranked win over New Hampshire helps their resume, and the loss I am predicting to Delaware won't hurt them. The rest of the CAA teams in the field won't have more than a couple ranked wins, although Villanova does have a chance to end the year with 3, plus a win over Delaware. They could push back into the seed conversation.

MVFC - As mentioned above, similar to the BSC, this conference is top and bottom heavy, no middle. North Dakota's back-to-back surprising losses has nearly killed their playoff hopes with SDSU, USD and Illinois State coming up to round out the season. The bad thing for the MVFC is they now have a good chance to end the season 5-7 or 6-6 and unranked. A win over UND helps nobody in the end in that case. The team it hurts to most is South Dakota. In my bracket, even at 8-3 (7-2 FCS), South Dakota would have no ranked wins, unless Pioneer champ Drake makes it into the top 25 by season's end. Even with a SOS of 9, they would have no resume building wins, thus missing out on a seed. Illinois State would sneak in by being 5-3 in conference and being in the best conference in the country, despite no ranked wins.

NEC - The winner of the Robert Morris - Duquesne matchup this weekend will probably be the conference champ. I have Robert Morris winning.

Patriot - Holy Cross has a leg up right now, so I have them in.

Pioneer - Drake looks to be the team to beat.

Southern - Mercer, outside their one hiccup, looks to be cruising to the top. They do have Western Carolina coming up, which could shake things up. Right now I have them as the champs and 4 seed. They could be anywhere in the 4-6 seed range depending on how the committee looks at their SOS of 58. The Western Carolina - Chattanooga game this last weekend was probably an elimination game. Chattanooga doesn't have a shot at any further ranked wins this year and will most likely be left in the cold. Western Carolina has a SOS of 26 and a win over ranked Chattanooga. Even if they lose to Mercer, they should still be comfortably in. Their loss to UM will look ok as well.

Southland - Just not a very good conference any longer. It would behoove them to entice Central Arkansas and Abilene Christian to come back, and try to get Tarleton on board. As it stands now, Incarnate Word is the only team looking like they will get in. They will be in the seed discussion, but a bad loss to Southern Illinois and a SOS of 53 will probably hurt them. One ranked win over NAU, and maybe a ranked win over Nicholls will help. Stephen F. Austin may be the only other team to get a look, but a DII win will likely keep them out.

United - Possibly the 4th best conference in the country, there is a good chance they get two teams in, maybe three. Central Arkansas shot themselves in the foot losing to Dixie (I mean Utah) Tech on Saturday. The conference is now Tarleton's to lose. They also lost to a not as bad Eastern Kentucky, but still have ACU and UCA to play. Tarleton is in the seed discussion, but the EKU loss will hurt. Wins over ACU and UCA would help, but the SOS of 45 may hold them back. ACU should be in with a ranked win over UCA, a close loss to Idaho and an SOS of 27.

This guy rocks. Read and enjoyed the whole thing thank you for doing what you do!

[Bocephus]

There is still a lot of football to be played with 3 weeks left, but things are starting to become more clear. The MVFC and BSC are top and bottom heavy this year. Not much in the middle of the road, which will probably lead to 4 bids for each conference. The CAA being so huge may lead to 6 teams getting in. The Southern Conference is once again eating itself, and poor OOC performance will probably limit them to 2 bids. Further thoughts on the field and the possibilities below my bracket.



Big Sky - The top 4 teams are top 15 teams. Nobody else is too good. NAU has a good chance to finish 8-4, but they have a DII win, and despite an SOS of 28, they will have no ranked wins. I think they will be on the outside looking in. It would be entirely possible the Cats get the #1 since we are undefeated, honestly not sure how the committee would look at that. The North Dakota win won't be a resume builder any longer for NDSU by selection Sunday, which would help our case. I am predicting the Gris to beat Davis this weekend, and even losing Cat/Griz they would have ranked wins over UC-Davis, Western Carolina and NAU, plus a quality win (ineligible to be ranked in the Stats poll) over Missouri State (9-3 or 8-4 finish likely for MO St.). SOS of 20 plus those wins gets them a 4-6 seed depending on other outcomes. I've got Idaho as a seed as well on the back of a SOS of 7, and ranked wins against NAU and playoff team Abilene Christian, as well as an FBS win. The close loss to UC-Davis won't hurt them, and the committee will look at their loss against us more favorably as they didn't have Layne, and it was on the road. No bad losses. UC-Davis could be in the seed discussion in this scenario, but only 1 ranked win would hurt them. How they lose to UM and MSU could help them though.

Big South - OVC - SEMO has a good chance at winning out and being undefeated against the FCS. 2 ranked wins will help their case, but a SOS of 82 will most likely hurt. They could be the 4 seed, but my predictions have Mercer and Montana with better resumes. UT - Martin would be one of the few bubble teams at 8-4 with more than one ranked win, as they also have an FBS win.

CAA - What a crap storm this conference is causing. There is a really good chance they have 6 teams finish 8-4 or better, and a decent chance at least 5 finish 9-3 or better. Teams that beat Delaware won't get that as a ranked win since they are ineligible, but it will be a quality win and boost the resume. The problem this year, so many of the top teams only play one or two of the other top teams. Stony Brook is the unexpected team playing really well this year in the CAA. Seems to happen in that conference every year. They will make it so either they, or whoever they beat are a ranked win, and add to the perceived strength of the CAA. I've got Rhode Island getting a seed based on a 10-1 record against the FCS, and a decent SOS of 31. A ranked win over New Hampshire helps their resume, and the loss I am predicting to Delaware won't hurt them. The rest of the CAA teams in the field won't have more than a couple ranked wins, although Villanova does have a chance to end the year with 3, plus a win over Delaware. They could push back into the seed conversation.

MVFC - As mentioned above, similar to the BSC, this conference is top and bottom heavy, no middle. North Dakota's back-to-back surprising losses has nearly killed their playoff hopes with SDSU, USD and Illinois State coming up to round out the season. The bad thing for the MVFC is they now have a good chance to end the season 5-7 or 6-6 and unranked. A win over UND helps nobody in the end in that case. The team it hurts to most is South Dakota. In my bracket, even at 8-3 (7-2 FCS), South Dakota would have no ranked wins, unless Pioneer champ Drake makes it into the top 25 by season's end. Even with a SOS of 9, they would have no resume building wins, thus missing out on a seed. Illinois State would sneak in by being 5-3 in conference and being in the best conference in the country, despite no ranked wins.

NEC - The winner of the Robert Morris - Duquesne matchup this weekend will probably be the conference champ. I have Robert Morris winning.

Patriot - Holy Cross has a leg up right now, so I have them in.

Pioneer - Drake looks to be the team to beat.

Southern - Mercer, outside their one hiccup, looks to be cruising to the top. They do have Western Carolina coming up, which could shake things up. Right now I have them as the champs and 4 seed. They could be anywhere in the 4-6 seed range depending on how the committee looks at their SOS of 58. The Western Carolina - Chattanooga game this last weekend was probably an elimination game. Chattanooga doesn't have a shot at any further ranked wins this year and will most likely be left in the cold. Western Carolina has a SOS of 26 and a win over ranked Chattanooga. Even if they lose to Mercer, they should still be comfortably in. Their loss to UM will look ok as well.

Southland - Just not a very good conference any longer. It would behoove them to entice Central Arkansas and Abilene Christian to come back, and try to get Tarleton on board. As it stands now, Incarnate Word is the only team looking like they will get in. They will be in the seed discussion, but a bad loss to Southern Illinois and a SOS of 53 will probably hurt them. One ranked win over NAU, and maybe a ranked win over Nicholls will help. Stephen F. Austin may be the only other team to get a look, but a DII win will likely keep them out.

United - Possibly the 4th best conference in the country, there is a good chance they get two teams in, maybe three. Central Arkansas shot themselves in the foot losing to Dixie (I mean Utah) Tech on Saturday. The conference is now Tarleton's to lose. They also lost to a not as bad Eastern Kentucky, but still have ACU and UCA to play. Tarleton is in the seed discussion, but the EKU loss will hurt. Wins over ACU and UCA would help, but the SOS of 45 may hold them back. ACU should be in with a ranked win over UCA, a close loss to Idaho and an SOS of 27.

This guy rocks. Read and enjoyed the whole thing thank you for doing what you do!

Idaho rematch is interesting, I’m guessing they would fare better with their starting QB

[4KornerKat]

There is still a lot of football to be played with 3 weeks left, but things are starting to become more clear. The MVFC and BSC are top and bottom heavy this year. Not much in the middle of the road, which will probably lead to 4 bids for each conference. The CAA being so huge may lead to 6 teams getting in. The Southern Conference is once again eating itself, and poor OOC performance will probably limit them to 2 bids. Further thoughts on the field and the possibilities below my bracket.



Big Sky - The top 4 teams are top 15 teams. Nobody else is too good. NAU has a good chance to finish 8-4, but they have a DII win, and despite an SOS of 28, they will have no ranked wins. I think they will be on the outside looking in. It would be entirely possible the Cats get the #1 since we are undefeated, honestly not sure how the committee would look at that. The North Dakota win won't be a resume builder any longer for NDSU by selection Sunday, which would help our case. I am predicting the Gris to beat Davis this weekend, and even losing Cat/Griz they would have ranked wins over UC-Davis, Western Carolina and NAU, plus a quality win (ineligible to be ranked in the Stats poll) over Missouri State (9-3 or 8-4 finish likely for MO St.). SOS of 20 plus those wins gets them a 4-6 seed depending on other outcomes. I've got Idaho as a seed as well on the back of a SOS of 7, and ranked wins against NAU and playoff team Abilene Christian, as well as an FBS win. The close loss to UC-Davis won't hurt them, and the committee will look at their loss against us more favorably as they didn't have Layne, and it was on the road. No bad losses. UC-Davis could be in the seed discussion in this scenario, but only 1 ranked win would hurt them. How they lose to UM and MSU could help them though.

Big South - OVC - SEMO has a good chance at winning out and being undefeated against the FCS. 2 ranked wins will help their case, but a SOS of 82 will most likely hurt. They could be the 4 seed, but my predictions have Mercer and Montana with better resumes. UT - Martin would be one of the few bubble teams at 8-4 with more than one ranked win, as they also have an FBS win.

CAA - What a crap storm this conference is causing. There is a really good chance they have 6 teams finish 8-4 or better, and a decent chance at least 5 finish 9-3 or better. Teams that beat Delaware won't get that as a ranked win since they are ineligible, but it will be a quality win and boost the resume. The problem this year, so many of the top teams only play one or two of the other top teams. Stony Brook is the unexpected team playing really well this year in the CAA. Seems to happen in that conference every year. They will make it so either they, or whoever they beat are a ranked win, and add to the perceived strength of the CAA. I've got Rhode Island getting a seed based on a 10-1 record against the FCS, and a decent SOS of 31. A ranked win over New Hampshire helps their resume, and the loss I am predicting to Delaware won't hurt them. The rest of the CAA teams in the field won't have more than a couple ranked wins, although Villanova does have a chance to end the year with 3, plus a win over Delaware. They could push back into the seed conversation.

MVFC - As mentioned above, similar to the BSC, this conference is top and bottom heavy, no middle. North Dakota's back-to-back surprising losses has nearly killed their playoff hopes with SDSU, USD and Illinois State coming up to round out the season. The bad thing for the MVFC is they now have a good chance to end the season 5-7 or 6-6 and unranked. A win over UND helps nobody in the end in that case. The team it hurts to most is South Dakota. In my bracket, even at 8-3 (7-2 FCS), South Dakota would have no ranked wins, unless Pioneer champ Drake makes it into the top 25 by season's end. Even with a SOS of 9, they would have no resume building wins, thus missing out on a seed. Illinois State would sneak in by being 5-3 in conference and being in the best conference in the country, despite no ranked wins.

NEC - The winner of the Robert Morris - Duquesne matchup this weekend will probably be the conference champ. I have Robert Morris winning.

Patriot - Holy Cross has a leg up right now, so I have them in.

Pioneer - Drake looks to be the team to beat.

Southern - Mercer, outside their one hiccup, looks to be cruising to the top. They do have Western Carolina coming up, which could shake things up. Right now I have them as the champs and 4 seed. They could be anywhere in the 4-6 seed range depending on how the committee looks at their SOS of 58. The Western Carolina - Chattanooga game this last weekend was probably an elimination game. Chattanooga doesn't have a shot at any further ranked wins this year and will most likely be left in the cold. Western Carolina has a SOS of 26 and a win over ranked Chattanooga. Even if they lose to Mercer, they should still be comfortably in. Their loss to UM will look ok as well.

Southland - Just not a very good conference any longer. It would behoove them to entice Central Arkansas and Abilene Christian to come back, and try to get Tarleton on board. As it stands now, Incarnate Word is the only team looking like they will get in. They will be in the seed discussion, but a bad loss to Southern Illinois and a SOS of 53 will probably hurt them. One ranked win over NAU, and maybe a ranked win over Nicholls will help. Stephen F. Austin may be the only other team to get a look, but a DII win will likely keep them out.

United - Possibly the 4th best conference in the country, there is a good chance they get two teams in, maybe three. Central Arkansas shot themselves in the foot losing to Dixie (I mean Utah) Tech on Saturday. The conference is now Tarleton's to lose. They also lost to a not as bad Eastern Kentucky, but still have ACU and UCA to play. Tarleton is in the seed discussion, but the EKU loss will hurt. Wins over ACU and UCA would help, but the SOS of 45 may hold them back. ACU should be in with a ranked win over UCA, a close loss to Idaho and an SOS of 27.

This guy rocks. Read and enjoyed the whole thing thank you for doing what you do!

Idaho rematch is interesting, I’m guessing they would fare better with their starting QB

Who is apparently injured and out again

[MSUBRONCO]

There is still a lot of football to be played with 3 weeks left, but things are starting to become more clear. The MVFC and BSC are top and bottom heavy this year. Not much in the middle of the road, which will probably lead to 4 bids for each conference. The CAA being so huge may lead to 6 teams getting in. The Southern Conference is once again eating itself, and poor OOC performance will probably limit them to 2 bids. Further thoughts on the field and the possibilities below my bracket.



Big Sky - The top 4 teams are top 15 teams. Nobody else is too good. NAU has a good chance to finish 8-4, but they have a DII win, and despite an SOS of 28, they will have no ranked wins. I think they will be on the outside looking in. It would be entirely possible the Cats get the #1 since we are undefeated, honestly not sure how the committee would look at that. The North Dakota win won't be a resume builder any longer for NDSU by selection Sunday, which would help our case. I am predicting the Gris to beat Davis this weekend, and even losing Cat/Griz they would have ranked wins over UC-Davis, Western Carolina and NAU, plus a quality win (ineligible to be ranked in the Stats poll) over Missouri State (9-3 or 8-4 finish likely for MO St.). SOS of 20 plus those wins gets them a 4-6 seed depending on other outcomes. I've got Idaho as a seed as well on the back of a SOS of 7, and ranked wins against NAU and playoff team Abilene Christian, as well as an FBS win. The close loss to UC-Davis won't hurt them, and the committee will look at their loss against us more favorably as they didn't have Layne, and it was on the road. No bad losses. UC-Davis could be in the seed discussion in this scenario, but only 1 ranked win would hurt them. How they lose to UM and MSU could help them though.

Big South - OVC - SEMO has a good chance at winning out and being undefeated against the FCS. 2 ranked wins will help their case, but a SOS of 82 will most likely hurt. They could be the 4 seed, but my predictions have Mercer and Montana with better resumes. UT - Martin would be one of the few bubble teams at 8-4 with more than one ranked win, as they also have an FBS win.

CAA - What a crap storm this conference is causing. There is a really good chance they have 6 teams finish 8-4 or better, and a decent chance at least 5 finish 9-3 or better. Teams that beat Delaware won't get that as a ranked win since they are ineligible, but it will be a quality win and boost the resume. The problem this year, so many of the top teams only play one or two of the other top teams. Stony Brook is the unexpected team playing really well this year in the CAA. Seems to happen in that conference every year. They will make it so either they, or whoever they beat are a ranked win, and add to the perceived strength of the CAA. I've got Rhode Island getting a seed based on a 10-1 record against the FCS, and a decent SOS of 31. A ranked win over New Hampshire helps their resume, and the loss I am predicting to Delaware won't hurt them. The rest of the CAA teams in the field won't have more than a couple ranked wins, although Villanova does have a chance to end the year with 3, plus a win over Delaware. They could push back into the seed conversation.

MVFC - As mentioned above, similar to the BSC, this conference is top and bottom heavy, no middle. North Dakota's back-to-back surprising losses has nearly killed their playoff hopes with SDSU, USD and Illinois State coming up to round out the season. The bad thing for the MVFC is they now have a good chance to end the season 5-7 or 6-6 and unranked. A win over UND helps nobody in the end in that case. The team it hurts to most is South Dakota. In my bracket, even at 8-3 (7-2 FCS), South Dakota would have no ranked wins, unless Pioneer champ Drake makes it into the top 25 by season's end. Even with a SOS of 9, they would have no resume building wins, thus missing out on a seed. Illinois State would sneak in by being 5-3 in conference and being in the best conference in the country, despite no ranked wins.

NEC - The winner of the Robert Morris - Duquesne matchup this weekend will probably be the conference champ. I have Robert Morris winning.

Patriot - Holy Cross has a leg up right now, so I have them in.

Pioneer - Drake looks to be the team to beat.

Southern - Mercer, outside their one hiccup, looks to be cruising to the top. They do have Western Carolina coming up, which could shake things up. Right now I have them as the champs and 4 seed. They could be anywhere in the 4-6 seed range depending on how the committee looks at their SOS of 58. The Western Carolina - Chattanooga game this last weekend was probably an elimination game. Chattanooga doesn't have a shot at any further ranked wins this year and will most likely be left in the cold. Western Carolina has a SOS of 26 and a win over ranked Chattanooga. Even if they lose to Mercer, they should still be comfortably in. Their loss to UM will look ok as well.

Southland - Just not a very good conference any longer. It would behoove them to entice Central Arkansas and Abilene Christian to come back, and try to get Tarleton on board. As it stands now, Incarnate Word is the only team looking like they will get in. They will be in the seed discussion, but a bad loss to Southern Illinois and a SOS of 53 will probably hurt them. One ranked win over NAU, and maybe a ranked win over Nicholls will help. Stephen F. Austin may be the only other team to get a look, but a DII win will likely keep them out.

United - Possibly the 4th best conference in the country, there is a good chance they get two teams in, maybe three. Central Arkansas shot themselves in the foot losing to Dixie (I mean Utah) Tech on Saturday. The conference is now Tarleton's to lose. They also lost to a not as bad Eastern Kentucky, but still have ACU and UCA to play. Tarleton is in the seed discussion, but the EKU loss will hurt. Wins over ACU and UCA would help, but the SOS of 45 may hold them back. ACU should be in with a ranked win over UCA, a close loss to Idaho and an SOS of 27.

How UCD losses to UM well that didn't happen. It's great!

[BleedingBLue]

The seeding will be different now. SEMO losing opens up a spot, and Davis (currently) would slide in. I think a 9-3 CAA team has a really good shot at getting a seed now. A lot can still change in the last two weeks, but South Dakota is the biggest beneficiary from all the upsets the last two weeks.