Bobcats vs. the Tribe quarter finals

[kennethnoisewater]

They’re gonna roll like the gris, sleeveless!

Hahahaha

I saw that in the article. That is exact opposite of what Coastal did when they beat the gris in -5 degree weather a few years back. gris came out in tough guy mode. CC had a stay-warm system in place. Big advantage CC in that game.

This game is 25 degrees warmer than that one. But if W&M wants to go tough-guy, it can legit affect performance as your body expends extra energy keeping itself warm.

I bet it’s close to 10° at kickoff, and will feel colder.

According to Weather Underground, it's supposed to be 17 at kickoff but feel like 6. By 11 it's supposed to feel like 3 degrees. I also wouldn't be surprised if it's colder.

[allcat]

Temp won't affect them. Live live in Humidity and wind, just having cold won't be bad.

[ilovethecats]

They’re gonna roll like the gris, sleeveless!

Hahahaha

I saw that in the article. That is exact opposite of what Coastal did when they beat the gris in -5 degree weather a few years back. gris came out in tough guy mode. CC had a stay-warm system in place. Big advantage CC in that game.

This game is 25 degrees warmer than that one. But if W&M wants to go tough-guy, it can legit affect performance as your body expends extra energy keeping itself warm.

I bet it’s close to 10° at kickoff, and will feel colder.

According to Weather Underground, it's supposed to be 17 at kickoff but feel like 6. By 11 it's supposed to feel like 3 degrees. I also wouldn't be surprised if it's colder.

They'll do what most players and coaches do when they come here. They'll be real tough and sleeveless in the first half. But it never fails, we see a lot more sleeves and coats in the 2nd half for some reason....

[BelligerentBobcat]

Temp won't affect them. Live live in Humidity and wind, just having cold won't be bad.

It effects things like how much the ball hurts when you try to catch it, kick it, even changes how you throw it. A cold, hard, football hurts and can be hard to catch. I agree on the weather not bothering them much. When you’re playing you don’t feel it…it’s when you go to the sidelines that you notice it.

[COTribe90]

Okay Bobcats, something has just come to my attention. We need to talk. Nearly without exception, Bobcat fans have been discounting WM’s statistical advantages or competitiveness in some areas and justifying it by claiming the CAA is an inferior conference offering inferior competition. I’ve let that slide for the most part because there’s so little basis for actual comparison (common opponents) and because the center of gravity (at least at an elite level of play) has undoubtedly shifted west of the Mississippi in recent years.

However, I just took a gander at your schedule. Ya’ll played the bottom 5 in the BSC, with a combined 8 conference wins between them. MSU avoided playing Idaho and Sac State. Seems you want to live off the BSC conference rep without putting in the work! Don’t believe me, lets’s dive in to the numbers.

Here’s what Massey shows. The averaged Massey ranking of WMs CAA conference opponents is 43.7. The average Massey ranking of MSU’s conference opponents is 56.0. WM played 6 teams in the top 50. MSU played 3 teams in the top 50. Personally, I have no doubt MSU will be able to hang with WM despite playing the easier conference schedule

Now I don’t know what will happen tomorrow night beyond the fact that two very good teams that have equally earned the right to be here will face off and settle it on the field.

Curious what the records were in those top 50 games? How about point differential? Why does Weber only count as "1 team" instead of "2 wins"?

How about this: W&M has played 0 games against Top 10 teams while MSU has played 2

Or: Both teams have played 4 games against Top 30 teams...what is each teams record against that field?

Or: How many teams does the BSC have in the Top 10 vs how many CAA teams in the Top 10.

Can play this game all day long, but you have to seriously stretch to find ways in which W&Ms resume looks remotely comparable.

Mr. Cherry Picker.

I compared all the conference opponents for each team in the regular season. Seemed reasonable and straight forward and I didn’t know what the numbers would show before doing it. I didn’t twist myself into a pretzel to include or exclude any opponents or create arbitrary distinctions. Just something to pass the time before KO.

FWIW, WM was 5-1 against teams in the top 50.

[ilovethecats]

Temp won't affect them. Live live in Humidity and wind, just having cold won't be bad.

It effects things like how much the ball hurts when you try to catch it, kick it, even changes how you throw it. A cold, hard, football hurts and can be hard to catch. I agree on the weather not bothering them much. When you’re playing you don’t feel it…it’s when you go to the sidelines that you notice it.

Usually matters more depending on how the game goes. If W&M is taking it to us, or the game is really tight, they won't even notice the cold. But I promise if they're going into the 4th quarter down a few scores it will be REAL cold.

[RangeRider]

Tabular forcast from the NWS: 17 at kickoff with a windchill of 9. Chance of snow all afternoon. Wont be a "dry cold" either with humidities up near 90.

[coloradocat]

Tabular forcast from the NWS: 17 at kickoff with a windchill of 9. Chance of snow all afternoon. Wont be a "dry cold" either with humidities up near 90.

That's the Montana humidity meter, not the Virginia one. It'll still be very dry for our east coast guests.

[CelticCat]

According to Sagarin the CAA is the 5th rated FCS conference:
1 MVFC
2 Big Sky
3 ASUn
4 Southern
5 CAA

Acording to Massey:
1 MVFC
2 Big Sky
3 Southern
4 CAA
5 ASUN

According to Massey for SOS (FCS only)
MSU - 19th
W&M - 46th

According to Sagarin for SOS (All D1)
MSU - 168th
W&M - 186th

Two different computer models say the same thing - the Big Sky is a better conference and MSU has played a tougher schedule.

That really doesn't mean a lot to me because there can be extremely good football teams in bad conferences (not saying the CAA is bad by any stretch). But the data doesn't back up that the CAA is on par wit the Big Sky, or that W&M has played an equally tough schedule. However MSU's SOS is likely boosted by playing Oregon State, the SOS is probably closer if MSU had played a MAC team or something.

[COTribe90]

I love this!! Gets me even more pumped for the game. Most fan bases we encounter have very little online presence so were left to bicker amongst ourselves sans the gris. We have zero effect on the game and the game plan outside of a little crowd noise, but getting to point and counter-point with the other fan base gets the the competitive juice's flowing. I'll admit I know very little about your team or conference. I wish the CAA had more of a national presence to get on the ESPN networks so I could watch some games and get a better look at your teams body of work for the season.

I wish you guys had the fan base to travel. If the rolls were reversed, you would have 2000+ Cat fans making their was to Virginia to root on the team. Oh well, we can only play who is in front of us. Here's hoping for a clean, hard-fought, injury free game.

WM is a relatively small school (~8,000 undergrad), so averaging around 10,000/game is pretty good I think. Especially considering all the DI fb options in VA. If the roles were reversed and the game was being played Friday night in Williamsburg, VA, I kinda doubt you’d get 2,000 MSU fans making the trip. Heck you’d have a hard time finding 2,000 empty plane seats on 5 days notice I suspect and they’d be expensive. All that to say, don’t judge WM’s fandom based on tomorrow’s attendance. This is a tall order and I say that coming from Colorado.

And, don’t get our fans started on FloSports vs ESPN coverage for our conference. Sore topic...

[COTribe90]

According to Sagarin the CAA is the 5th rated FCS conference:
1 MVFC
2 Big Sky
3 ASUn
4 Southern
5 CAA

Acording to Massey:
1 MVFC
2 Big Sky
3 Southern
4 CAA
5 ASUN

According to Massey for SOS (FCS only)
MSU - 19th
W&M - 46th

According to Sagarin for SOS (All D1)
MSU - 168th
W&M - 186th

Two different computer models say the same thing - the Big Sky is a better conference and MSU has played a tougher schedule.

That really doesn't mean a lot to me because there can be extremely good football teams in bad conferences (not saying the CAA is bad by any stretch). But the data doesn't back up that the CAA is on par wit the Big Sky, or that W&M has played an equally tough schedule. However MSU's SOS is likely boosted by playing Oregon State, they SOS is probably closer if MSU had played a MAC team or something.

I conceded at the on-set that the BSC is the superior conference. My point was MSU, by not having Idaho and Sac St on the schedule, actually played a conference schedule that was lower rated (average of team rankings) than WM’s, because WM played more of the top CAA teams and avoided more of the bottom teams. Seems reasonable to only count the teams you actually play when comparing SOS, right? As you note FBS games tend to screw SOS rankings for FCS teams, particularly games against P5 teams, so I only looked at the conference games played.

The whole point being, many MSU fans have downplayed WM’s stats saying our numbers are inflated by playing in a lesser conference. To which I counter, the CAA may be the lesser conference, but our actual conference schedules (teams played) were on par. To which Bobcat fans say, yeah but...

Don’t think we’re going to solve this before KO.

[Catbacker_1]

I love this!! Gets me even more pumped for the game. Most fan bases we encounter have very little online presence so were left to bicker amongst ourselves sans the gris. We have zero effect on the game and the game plan outside of a little crowd noise, but getting to point and counter-point with the other fan base gets the the competitive juice's flowing. I'll admit I know very little about your team or conference. I wish the CAA had more of a national presence to get on the ESPN networks so I could watch some games and get a better look at your teams body of work for the season.

I wish you guys had the fan base to travel. If the rolls were reversed, you would have 2000+ Cat fans making their was to Virginia to root on the team. Oh well, we can only play who is in front of us. Here's hoping for a clean, hard-fought, injury free game.

WM is a relatively small school (~8,000 undergrad), so averaging around 10,000/game is pretty good I think. Especially considering all the DI fb options in VA. If the roles were reversed and the game was being played Friday night in Williamsburg, VA, I kinda doubt you’d get 2,000 MSU fans making the trip. Heck you’d have a hard time finding 2,000 empty plane seats on 5 days notice I suspect and they’d be expensive. All that to say, don’t judge WM’s fandom based on tomorrow’s attendance. This is a tall order and I say that coming from Colorado.

And, don’t get our fans started on FloSports vs ESPN coverage for our conference. Sore topic...

I get that, but you have a much higher population to pull from. the Gallatin Valley only has a 100K residents or roughly 10% of the state and we averaged over 20K this year. Kinda surprised you only average 10K even if your not the only team in the area.

I would bet MSU fans would figure it out, tends to be fan charter flights for playoff games.

[COTribe90]

I love this!! Gets me even more pumped for the game. Most fan bases we encounter have very little online presence so were left to bicker amongst ourselves sans the gris. We have zero effect on the game and the game plan outside of a little crowd noise, but getting to point and counter-point with the other fan base gets the the competitive juice's flowing. I'll admit I know very little about your team or conference. I wish the CAA had more of a national presence to get on the ESPN networks so I could watch some games and get a better look at your teams body of work for the season.

I wish you guys had the fan base to travel. If the rolls were reversed, you would have 2000+ Cat fans making their was to Virginia to root on the team. Oh well, we can only play who is in front of us. Here's hoping for a clean, hard-fought, injury free game.

WM is a relatively small school (~8,000 undergrad), so averaging around 10,000/game is pretty good I think. Especially considering all the DI fb options in VA. If the roles were reversed and the game was being played Friday night in Williamsburg, VA, I kinda doubt you’d get 2,000 MSU fans making the trip. Heck you’d have a hard time finding 2,000 empty plane seats on 5 days notice I suspect and they’d be expensive. All that to say, don’t judge WM’s fandom based on tomorrow’s attendance. This is a tall order and I say that coming from Colorado.

And, don’t get our fans started on FloSports vs ESPN coverage for our conference. Sore topic...

I get that, but you have a much higher population to pull from. the Gallatin Valley only has a 100K residents or roughly 10% of the state and we averaged over 20K this year. Kinda surprised you only average 10K even if your not the only team in the area.

I would bet MSU fans would figure it out, tends to be fan charter flights for playoff games.

VA has nine DI football programs (5 FBS and 4 FCS). Four of those programs are within an hour of William and Mary. Williamsburg proper is not a large town. WM is not a state flagship like VT or Virginia that attract casual fb fans or garner allegiance based on state pride. So, WM’s fan base consists of alumni (or others with a direct connection) and some locals from Williamsburg.

Living out west, I know it’s not a big deal for MSU to draw fans from as much as 4-5 hours drive away. Those are easy miles compared to the gauntlet WM alums from the DC metro have to run to get to a W&M game. It’s why I don’t live in the DC Metro!

So, I’d expect about 100 Tribe fans tomorrow, but it’ll be the diehards.

[Camo_Cat]

I love this!! Gets me even more pumped for the game. Most fan bases we encounter have very little online presence so were left to bicker amongst ourselves sans the gris. We have zero effect on the game and the game plan outside of a little crowd noise, but getting to point and counter-point with the other fan base gets the the competitive juice's flowing. I'll admit I know very little about your team or conference. I wish the CAA had more of a national presence to get on the ESPN networks so I could watch some games and get a better look at your teams body of work for the season.

I wish you guys had the fan base to travel. If the rolls were reversed, you would have 2000+ Cat fans making their was to Virginia to root on the team. Oh well, we can only play who is in front of us. Here's hoping for a clean, hard-fought, injury free game.

WM is a relatively small school (~8,000 undergrad), so averaging around 10,000/game is pretty good I think. Especially considering all the DI fb options in VA. If the roles were reversed and the game was being played Friday night in Williamsburg, VA, I kinda doubt you’d get 2,000 MSU fans making the trip. Heck you’d have a hard time finding 2,000 empty plane seats on 5 days notice I suspect and they’d be expensive. All that to say, don’t judge WM’s fandom based on tomorrow’s attendance. This is a tall order and I say that coming from Colorado.

And, don’t get our fans started on FloSports vs ESPN coverage for our conference. Sore topic...

I get that, but you have a much higher population to pull from. the Gallatin Valley only has a 100K residents or roughly 10% of the state and we averaged over 20K this year. Kinda surprised you only average 10K even if your not the only team in the area.

I would bet MSU fans would figure it out, tends to be fan charter flights for playoff games.

VA has nine DI football programs (5 FBS and 4 FCS). Four of those programs are within an hour of William and Mary. Williamsburg proper is not a large town. WM is not a state flagship like VT or Virginia that attract casual fb fans or garner allegiance based on state pride. So, WM’s fan base consists of alumni (or others with a direct connection) and some locals from Williamsburg.

Living out west, I know it’s not a big deal for MSU to draw fans from as much as 4-5 hours drive away. Those are easy miles compared to the gauntlet WM alums from the DC metro have to run to get to a W&M game. It’s why I don’t live in the DC Metro!

So, I’d expect about 100 Tribe fans tomorrow, but it’ll be the diehards.

And they all will be welcome at every tailgate and every crowd of fans at the stadium!! I'm always on the lookout for visiting team fans during the playoffs to tell them thanks for coming. Safe travels to all Tribe fans!

[kennethnoisewater]

I love this!! Gets me even more pumped for the game. Most fan bases we encounter have very little online presence so were left to bicker amongst ourselves sans the gris. We have zero effect on the game and the game plan outside of a little crowd noise, but getting to point and counter-point with the other fan base gets the the competitive juice's flowing. I'll admit I know very little about your team or conference. I wish the CAA had more of a national presence to get on the ESPN networks so I could watch some games and get a better look at your teams body of work for the season.

I wish you guys had the fan base to travel. If the rolls were reversed, you would have 2000+ Cat fans making their was to Virginia to root on the team. Oh well, we can only play who is in front of us. Here's hoping for a clean, hard-fought, injury free game.

WM is a relatively small school (~8,000 undergrad), so averaging around 10,000/game is pretty good I think. Especially considering all the DI fb options in VA. If the roles were reversed and the game was being played Friday night in Williamsburg, VA, I kinda doubt you’d get 2,000 MSU fans making the trip. Heck you’d have a hard time finding 2,000 empty plane seats on 5 days notice I suspect and they’d be expensive. All that to say, don’t judge WM’s fandom based on tomorrow’s attendance. This is a tall order and I say that coming from Colorado.

And, don’t get our fans started on FloSports vs ESPN coverage for our conference. Sore topic...

I get that, but you have a much higher population to pull from. the Gallatin Valley only has a 100K residents or roughly 10% of the state and we averaged over 20K this year. Kinda surprised you only average 10K even if your not the only team in the area.

I would bet MSU fans would figure it out, tends to be fan charter flights for playoff games.

VA has nine DI football programs (5 FBS and 4 FCS). Four of those programs are within an hour of William and Mary. Williamsburg proper is not a large town. WM is not a state flagship like VT or Virginia that attract casual fb fans or garner allegiance based on state pride. So, WM’s fan base consists of alumni (or others with a direct connection) and some locals from Williamsburg.

Living out west, I know it’s not a big deal for MSU to draw fans from as much as 4-5 hours drive away. Those are easy miles compared to the gauntlet WM alums from the DC metro have to run to get to a W&M game. It’s why I don’t live in the DC Metro!

So, I’d expect about 100 Tribe fans tomorrow, but it’ll be the diehards.

I think we lose sight of how unique Montana is, especially in FCS. It's like Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Nebraska, or South Carolina--just on a smaller scale. Nothing to compete with, a lot of state pride, etc. The FCS schools in those and other states take a big back seat to the big show. We have a lot of NAIA schools in this state that have good football programs, but other than alumni and maybe some dedicated locals, not many people are even going to those games, let alone traveling out of state for them. FCS schools in bigger states are just like our NAIA schools. I love following them and I've been to some games here and there, but football in Missoula and Bozeman is front-page news. Even in Birmingham, I'm guessing the Samford game will be on about page 4 of the sports page...or below the fold at least. We should probably take it easy on the judgment of other FCS fan bases!

[GeauxCats41]

Okay Bobcats, something has just come to my attention. We need to talk. Nearly without exception, Bobcat fans have been discounting WM’s statistical advantages or competitiveness in some areas and justifying it by claiming the CAA is an inferior conference offering inferior competition. I’ve let that slide for the most part because there’s so little basis for actual comparison (common opponents) and because the center of gravity (at least at an elite level of play) has undoubtedly shifted west of the Mississippi in recent years.

However, I just took a gander at your schedule. Ya’ll played the bottom 5 in the BSC, with a combined 8 conference wins between them. MSU avoided playing Idaho and Sac State. Seems you want to live off the BSC conference rep without putting in the work! Don’t believe me, lets’s dive in to the numbers.

Here’s what Massey shows. The averaged Massey ranking of WMs CAA conference opponents is 43.7. The average Massey ranking of MSU’s conference opponents is 56.0. WM played 6 teams in the top 50. MSU played 3 teams in the top 50. Personally, I have no doubt MSU will be able to hang with WM despite playing the easier conference schedule

Now I don’t know what will happen tomorrow night beyond the fact that two very good teams that have equally earned the right to be here will face off and settle it on the field.

I think we're so confident in our offense based on what they did to two of the best defenses in the country (before playing us) in the griz and Weber State. We're also confident because our RB room has been decimated by injuries this season and hasn't skipped a beat (with a lot of help from the QBs). There has been some direct discounting of W&M and the CAA but I think that has mostly been by default due to how much confidence we have in our team. We just can't imagine anyone outside of the DSUs holding us to under 300 yards on the ground after what we've done against the formerly elite defenses we've faced, which were statistically much better than W&M. Oh, and we also just got possibly the best RB in the nation back last week from a season-long injury.

Many of us are concerned about how our defense holds up against your very productive offense but we'd be shocked if we didn't score at least 35 points based on the above. We aren't discounting W&M so much as we're just supremely confident in our own team right now. I think this will be our most competitive game to date this season.

I would take exception to the bolded. I don’t believe that’s accurate. I also don’t think WM has to hold MSU to under 300 yards rushing to win the game. I think both teams move the ball between the 20’s. Comes down to offensive and defensive redzone efficiency and turnovers at that point.

WM is deep at RB as well, problem remains there is only one ball to go around.

I’d expect Bobcat fans to be extremely confident, especially at home, and rightfully so. It’s the discounting of WM based on “gut feeling” and air of BSC superiority that I find a bit disrespectful.

Disclaimer, these thoughts are our own and this is a fan board. But I do appreciate you policing and fact checking our board as if it translates to anything meaningful on the field. You don’t have to post here.

The Bobcats have shown us nothing but the ability to run the ball down teams throats and find a way to win. We haven’t lost at home in 2 years. What do you want us to say that would make you feel more at home?

[onceacat]

Okay Bobcats, something has just come to my attention. We need to talk. Nearly without exception, Bobcat fans have been discounting WM’s statistical advantages or competitiveness in some areas and justifying it by claiming the CAA is an inferior conference offering inferior competition. I’ve let that slide for the most part because there’s so little basis for actual comparison (common opponents) and because the center of gravity (at least at an elite level of play) has undoubtedly shifted west of the Mississippi in recent years.

However, I just took a gander at your schedule. Ya’ll played the bottom 5 in the BSC, with a combined 8 conference wins between them. MSU avoided playing Idaho and Sac State. Seems you want to live off the BSC conference rep without putting in the work! Don’t believe me, lets’s dive in to the numbers.

Here’s what Massey shows. The averaged Massey ranking of WMs CAA conference opponents is 43.7. The average Massey ranking of MSU’s conference opponents is 56.0. WM played 6 teams in the top 50. MSU played 3 teams in the top 50. Personally, I have no doubt MSU will be able to hang with WM despite playing the easier conference schedule

Now I don’t know what will happen tomorrow night beyond the fact that two very good teams that have equally earned the right to be here will face off and settle it on the field.

Curious what the records were in those top 50 games? How about point differential? Why does Weber only count as "1 team" instead of "2 wins"?

How about this: W&M has played 0 games against Top 10 teams while MSU has played 2

Or: Both teams have played 4 games against Top 30 teams...what is each teams record against that field?

Or: How many teams does the BSC have in the Top 10 vs how many CAA teams in the Top 10.

Can play this game all day long, but you have to seriously stretch to find ways in which W&Ms resume looks remotely comparable.

Mr. Cherry Picker.

I compared all the conference opponents for each team in the regular season. Seemed reasonable and straight forward and I didn’t know what the numbers would show before doing it. I didn’t twist myself into a pretzel to include or exclude any opponents or create arbitrary distinctions. Just something to pass the time before KO.

FWIW, WM was 5-1 against teams in the top 50.

Thats why I called you a cherry picker. Using conference only stats is the exact definition of cherry picking.

The only way we have to understand how conferences stack up is by looking at the non-conference records & statistics.

[onceacat]

According to Sagarin the CAA is the 5th rated FCS conference:
1 MVFC
2 Big Sky
3 ASUn
4 Southern
5 CAA

Acording to Massey:
1 MVFC
2 Big Sky
3 Southern
4 CAA
5 ASUN

According to Massey for SOS (FCS only)
MSU - 19th
W&M - 46th

According to Sagarin for SOS (All D1)
MSU - 168th
W&M - 186th

Two different computer models say the same thing - the Big Sky is a better conference and MSU has played a tougher schedule.

That really doesn't mean a lot to me because there can be extremely good football teams in bad conferences (not saying the CAA is bad by any stretch). But the data doesn't back up that the CAA is on par wit the Big Sky, or that W&M has played an equally tough schedule. However MSU's SOS is likely boosted by playing Oregon State, the SOS is probably closer if MSU had played a MAC team or something.

Yeah, but theres a pretty decent chance (maybe not 50-50...but 40% or so) that the Cats win if they play a MAC or MW team...see for example the near loss at WY last year or Sacs & Weber absolutely crushing MW teams...In Webers case, a Utah State team playing in the post season. You also have a lot of BSC teams playing MVFC OOC games, which also helps with SOS.

I'm not seeing a lot of CAA games against the likes of Samford, Furman, or IWU.

[Prodigal Cat]

Out to 8.5 and this is national bettors, not Montana bettors like SportsbetMt.

https://twitter.com/SamHerderFCS/status ... k7LmCASReQ

[catatac]

Stats Schmats! Lot of arguing till blue in the face here on both sides. My final contribution here (maybe lol), is this. For W&M fans, given all you've seen of both teams (I'd encourage you to watch the last two Cat games, easy to find), what's your best brain prediction on the outcome if the game was being played in Frisco? Whatever that score, add 13 or 14 points to the Cats and that's your prediction for tomorrow night. These Cats are damn good, and better than damn good in Bobcat Stadium. They just always seem to find another gear, and opponents seem to wilt emotionally and physically... especially in December.

Just over 26 hours until we find out if W&M is as powerful as what we're hearing..... gonna be fun!