William & Mary Tribe Scouting Report

[BWahlberg]

Alright you damn Cat fans, while the rivalry week had me a little too far out of pocket I’m back to my senses… maybe it was seeing the Griz getting their ass kicked 2 of the last 3 weeks… maybe it was something else, but I’m feeling generous.

Here’s what I’ve got on your next opponent. The game recaps take me the longest so I’m going to just grab a few of note here.

William and Mary Tribe 11-1

31-35 loss vs Elon: This was week 4 for W&M, as you guys all know Elon got to the playoffs this year on the play of former Bobcat QB Matt McKay. This game W&M was up 28-10 at the half and up 31-16 with under 3:00 to go in the 3rd quarter. Elon would score 19 in the 4th quarter to win the game in a stunning comeback. In the 4th William & Mary would have two 3 and outs, lose a fumble, and then have their attempted game winning drive end on an attempted hail mary. Elon ran for 240 in the game and passed for 207 while holding The Tribe to 149 rushing and 252 passing. Elon was +2 in the game and interestingly enough went 0-3 on 2 point conversion attempts. Elon would finish as the 2nd best statistical rush defense in the CAA.

27-21 win vs Delaware: A few weeks after the Elon loss The Tribe beat then #6 Delaware at home. W&M never trailed in the game, it was close the whole way, they were tied at 0-0, and 7-7 but otherwise The Tribe had a lead that was up to 24-7 at one point in the game. The ground game was where they really made their money, 271 rushing against a team that would finish up as the best defensive scoring unit in the CAA and the 5th best rushing defense. What probably kept the game close(ish) was two W&M turnovers, while UD had none – UD would score 7 points off turnovers.

31-30 win @ Rhode Island: URI missed the playoffs as one of the many 7-4 bubble teams. In this game URI went 99 yards to score a TD as the clock expired. Instead of going for the tie and OT they went for 2… and failed. W&M wins. It was another massive rushing day for The Tribe, 314 on the ground, to go with 132 passing. URI had some passing success in the game, 283 total yards passing. URI also missed two field goals. Make 1 of those over the course of the game and they win it most likely.

37-26 win @ Richmond: As many of us saw Richmond took Sac to the wire in a rainstorm but wound up losing in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Richmond, statistically, is by far the best rush defense in the CAA. In this game each team on offense did what they do well. W&M ran well, 244 yards, 5.8 YPC, while Richmond passed for 277, 8.7 yards per completion. W&M had a comfy-ish lead, 31-13 until the almost very end of the 3rd quarter, Richmond would rattle off 2 TDs (one failed 2 point attempt) and suddenly with just under 11 minutes to go in the 4th, it’s a 5 point game. W&M responded with a 7 minute, 14 play, 80 yard TD drive to set the final score, Richmond would do nothing on their last possession and turnover on downs.

54-14 win vs Gardner-Webb: GW came into the playoffs at 6-5 and the auto-bid from their conference. They beat 7-4 EKU who came from the OVC – where SEMO came from as well. This one was over fast, 34-0 at the half. W&M had 306 rushing and 302 passing in an absolute destruction of a game, they also forced 6 turnovers, 4 INTs and 2 fumbles.


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General Stats

Passing yards per game W&M (182 for MSU vs 193 for W&M)
Rushing yards per game MSU (333 for MSU vs 277 for W&M)
Total offense MSU (515 for MSU vs 470 for W&M)
Passing yards allowed per game W&M(235 for MSU vs 204 for W&M)
Rushing yards allowed per game MSU (129 for MSU vs 144 for W&M)
Total defense W&M (364 for MSU vs 348 for W&M)

Each team gets 3 points here

Offense points scored MSU (44 for MSU vs 35.7 for W&M)
Defense points allowed W&M (27.25 for MSU vs 19.8 for W&M)
Turnover margin MSU (+12 for MSU / +6 for W&M)
Fieldgoal % MSU (77% for MSU vs 75% for W&M)
Punt Returns MSU (13 yards for MSU vs 7 yards for W&M)
Kick Returns MSU (27 yards for MSU vs 21 yards for W&M)
T.O.P. MSU (33:11 for MSU vs 31:37 for W&M)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) W&M (70% MSU / 56% W&M)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) W&M (61% MSU / 66.6% W&M)
3rd down offense W&M– (46% for MSU / 47.5% for W&M)
3rd down defense W&M – (36.7% allowed for MSU vs 31.5% allowed for W&M)

Cats get 6 while W&M gets 5. Interesting the cats big advantage is special teams areas while W&M’s is slightly better success rates for relative groups in the RZ and on 3rd down.

This gives the cats a slight edge, 9-8

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Players to Watch:


#9 Bronson Yoder, RB: Yoder is a first team all-CAA running back and boy did he have a year so far. 1,133 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs – he’s only got 39 receiving yards so I assume not much of a threat there. He’s 5-11, 205 pounds, he was a 3rd team pick as a junior, then he had 622 rushing and 4 TDs. You’ll probably see Bronson returning kicks too

#11 Darius Wilson, QB: A 6-3 QB he’s a tall guy, listed at 190 pounds overall. He’s passing for 182 per game and has 16 TDs to 6 INTs. He’s a runner too, 522 yards and 4 TDs this year on the ground.

#1 Malchi Imoh, RB: A shorter running back at 5-8, he might be out with an injury though, he missed the G-W game. On the season he’s got 709 yards on the ground and 9 rushing TDs. He also has 110 receiving yards and 1 receiving TD. If Imoh is out look for #4, Donavyn Lester to take his reps. Lester has 533 yards and 8 TDs this season. Lester’s a bigger guy at 6-2, 210.

#3 Caylin Newton, WR: The brother of Cam Newton, he’s 6 feet tall, 210 pounds. He leads the team in catches, and has 532 receiving yards and 3 receiving TDs. He’s their primary punt returner too.

#81 Lachlan Pitts, TE: Maybe one of the better TE’s I’ve seen, statistically. He’s 6-6, 255 pounds. He’s barely 2nd in receiving yards with 529 yards but does lead the team in receiving TDs with 5.

#60 Charles Grant / #65 Colby Sorsdal: Both O-linemen are 1st team all conference.

#8 John Pius, LB: A 6-2, 230 pound outside linebacker this guy has insane stats. 71 tackles, 19 TFLs, 11.5 sacks, 3 pass breakups, and 12 QB hits. Maybe their version of Montana’s Pat O’Connell? He was named the CAA defensive MVP. As you may suspect, he’s a Buchanan finalist too.

#99 Nate Lynn, DT: Listed at 255 for a DT is interesting, but he did make 1st team CAA. He’s got 55 tackles, 10 TFLs, 6 fumbles, and has forced 4 fumbles this season.

#25 Jalen Jones, CB: CAA freshman of the year, he leads the team with 4 interceptions.

#6 Ryan Poole, CB: Another 1st teamer, he’s got 34 tackles, 10 PBU’s, 1 INT, and 1 forced fumble.

#30 Isiah Jones, LB: A 6-1, 245 pound linebacker, he’s 3rd on the team in tackles with 59, he’s got 3.5 TFLs and 1 sack this season.

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Keys to a victory


1. Make the most of your possessions. The Cats have been great at this of late, both of these teams run the hell out of the ball. This could suggest limited possessions for both teams on Friday. MSU has been great at this as the season’s gone on and will need to do more of the same. A handful of careless possessions that lead to punts and ineffective drives could find the cats facing just a handful of opportunities to catch up and win the game.

2. The offense that shows up the best wins the game. You’ve got two rushing offenses facing off here and two defenses that show they’re good against the run too. This sets up to be a matchup that suggests that we’ll see both run the hell out of the ball, whoever can execute it the best will probably win the night.

3. Win the turnover battle. W&M makes some errors and doesn’t seem to be too effective forcing turnovers, while the Cats are a machine at forcing them, especially fumbles. There’s going to be opportunities had here, MSU can really benefit from a few stops and short fields from turnovers.

4. Even if you’re down, keep fighting. Kind of a “no-duh” statement but W&M has shown tendency to get leads in the 2nd and 3rd quarter and then get comfy and see them shrink away. While I really don’t expect MSU to be down multiple scores in the 3rd or 4th, there’s history that suggests they’ll get comfy and you can storm back.

5. This could come down to who is the better kicker – both teams have great kickers. W&M’s kicker has even hit a 57 yarder this year. Should be an interesting competition to watch.

6. Keep that TE of theirs from going off. He seems to be one hell of a great recipient off play-action passes that fools teams a lot.



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On paper this suggests one hell of a rushing matchup. This game could end fast too as both teams are ball control schools. This will be a fascinating showing of two of the best from some of the top conferences that will put on display (possibly) which conference is truly stronger.

Looking at most of William and Mary’s games many have been somewhat close, while the Cats have been seemingly just playing better and better with some bigger wins. I like the cats at home and I think they’re more battle tested. This could be a little lower scoring as both defenses should be familiar with each offense, in some regard. I’ll say at the end of the night the Bobcats are victorious, 34-26.

[rivercat]

Thanks Brint. Your scouting reports are great. I make sure to read them on egris weekly. It's nice you've taken the considerable time to put this together for us.

PS. I confess I'm a closet Gris Fan Pod listener.

[Blixtonz]

Awesome work Brint, thank you for taking the time to put this together!

[GeauxCats41]

Thank you for putting this together!

[seataccat]

Thanks Brint, nice work as usual.

[CodyCat]

This is always the best part of the Griz being out of the playoffs. Thanks a ton Brint!!!!

[BelligerentBobcat]

Thanks Brint. Your scouting reports are great. I make sure to read them on egris weekly. It's nice you've taken the considerable time to put this together for us.

PS. I confess I'm a closet Gris Fan Pod listener.

I will echo that the GFP is a fun listen, even if it takes me a week to listen to the entire thing.

[cats2506]

Thanks Brint!! always do a great job.

[technoCat]

I always enjoy seeing the stats laid out like that but we don't really have a base point to compare. For all we know the CAA is way better than the BSC or visa versa. You can look at the SSU/UR game but that weather and the turnovers had a crazy effect on that game so it's hard to know.

[Camo_Cat]

Thanks for the info Brint - great research!

[catscat]

I always enjoy seeing the stats laid out like that but we don't really have a base point to compare. For all we know the CAA is way better than the BSC or visa versa. You can look at the SSU/UR game but that weather and the turnovers had a crazy effect on that game so it's hard to know.

That and Sac State seems to enjoy only besting teams by 7 points or less.

I agree that it appears it comes down to which conference is better.

[DMMDCats]

Nice write up.

Thank you.

[91catAlum]

Good info, thanks Brint!

[luckyirishguy25]

Thanks Brint. I guess you can stick around.

[catsrback76]

Thanks Brint! I think he’s right on the fact that the team that can get up early and ride the clock will win this game. I suspect the Cats and our field will give us the appropriate edge to win going away.

[BWahlberg]

I always enjoy seeing the stats laid out like that but we don't really have a base point to compare. For all we know the CAA is way better than the BSC or visa versa. You can look at the SSU/UR game but that weather and the turnovers had a crazy effect on that game so it's hard to know.

Not some be-all end-all metric but when you pull the Sagarin rankings of entire conferences (they combine FBS and FCS it seems)

19th - MVFC
20th - Big Sky
21st - ASun
22nd - Southern
23rd - Colonial
24th - WAC
25th - Ivy
26th - Big South

Gardner Webb was/is in the Big South - who W&M just smoked. Based on this metric when comparing CAA to Big Sky, we know who the better conference is.