Path to the Playoffs - Mini Version

[Catprint]

WEEK 6

I am late for getting into the season with my “Path to the Playoffs”. Why mini? Why so late? Four pretty lame reasons.

1) Everyone expects Cats to make the playoffs. Does not mean they will. However, takes away some of the drama of 2018 and 2019 seasons. So I feel like not as much demand. For example, Cats have followed the script so far and are 5-1, which is what HAD to happen.
2) No season tickets this year – various reasons but mainly 2 – Planned travel that results in missing two games and loss of corporate sponsorship. We have printed football programs for years and due to pandemic and cost cutting, Learfield Sports has converted to digital programs as well as digital tickets. This made it impossible to continue our sponsorship since we are a business-to-business organization. We still support and contribute to MSU Athletics but not under the corporate sponsorship mechanism.
3) Like so many small businesses, we are short staffed and so have been working too many hours every week just have not had the extra time in my life that writing something in-depth for 11 weeks would require.
4) Coochorama42 “Weekly Playoff Predictions” post. He is doing a great job and has all the seed options and the various scenarios. Doing a much better job than I could do. I will defer to his post except when I am talking about seeds and direct impact on Cats. (But I now see he has not updated in a couple of weeks. Bummer).

Fundamentally, I am a stats and numbers guy; not a football guru. I do not know all the ins and outs of coverages; defensive schemes, RPO decisions and player development. Sure, my wife THINKS I believe I am smarter and better equipped than the head coach is but isn’t that true of all of us most of the time? IMHO is not really humble nor is it opinion in my minds. It is fact. I know better. Why doesn’t the coach listen to me?

But then the whole point of fan boards is to share, pontificate, argue (politely) and start our case! So ultimately, that is all I am doing.

My main focus this year is to try and aggregate information and statistics all you of you can find on the web; do some baseline analysis and give everyone an opportunity to argue, show the fallacies, present their side and basically enjoy looking at the future Cats success (or failures) and pretend somehow what we say and write will make a difference! If what I share does not add anything to the conversation or stir comments and banter, then that give me more time to build spreadsheets.

So here are the main themes I will cover each week
1) Big Sky standings and scenarios – who won and loss; who is still in the running for a playoff spot or championship; what are the remaining games and scenarios that could play out based on past performance and trends. This is not a betting line but more an overview of what will likely play out. I will track who is out of the playoff race, who can play a spoiler role, and which teams will boost the Cats standing by having a higher SOS. This will be a chart.
2) Playoff Seeding for Cats - Based on last week’s games across the country, where the Cats sit in the playoff/Seeding race without duplicating coocharama42 great level of detail.
3) STATS and DAMN LIES - We will examine various statistics such as total offense, rushing yards per game; points allowed, etc. Again, you can find these stats easily but I will try to aggregate them; comment on their importance and perhaps find an occasional obscure stat that really says something other than yada yada.
4) Game Time Analysis - We will discuss the Cats performance in the last game and expected/needed performance in the next game…

So let’s get to it.

1) Big Sky Conference Standings and Scenarios

Three games into the conference games and already three teams are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and three more have to win out which is not going to happen. (See the chart). That leaves seven teams with a possible chance but realistically it is only six – EWU, UM, MSU, UCD, Sac State and Weber. The chart shows you all games, current record, what it will take to get to 7 D-I wins and likely final records. Pretty much all the FCS online writers (Hero Sports, Athlon, etc.) have at least four BSC teams in the play offs.

The game predictions in the chart for each week are just statistical guesswork. I don’t claim to have any idea who will win and there certainly will be upsets (Think ISU-UCD last week). However, my prediction chart two years ago for the last 5 weeks was 21 out of 31 games so not shabby. Here is my breakdown of each team right now.

Sac State:
Sitting at 2-0 and in first place. But they have a tough schedule with Griz and Davis plus NAU. They have two non-conference losses. They have to win 4 out of 6 to be on the bubble. I don’t see a way in for them. I don’t see Sac as really being anywhere than about 5th or 6th place. Where is Kevin Thomson when you need him? (After seven seasons of eligibility and could have got 8, he sat on the pine at UW in 2020 and tried out for Panthers even though he never played a down in the UW Covid shortened season.)

Weber State:
Boy, what a tough start for Weber. With three losses on the books, they have to win nearly all their games and have many other games break their way. However, as 4-time BSC champion, they will get sympathy vote. I would not count Weber out. By the time most of you read this, the MSU-WSU game will be in the books

UC Davis:
Davis may have the easiest path even though they lost last week. The question is whether they are really a good team. Their next two games are Cal Poly and NAU. If they win those, they play EWU. With only one loss, they can lose to EWU and one other surprise and still get in at 8-3. I think it is likely.

EWU:
At this point, Eastern is a sure thing for the playoffs. We will talk about them more in other installments. Barriere is out of this world. After watching the Griz simply unable to keep up in the second half, I am not sure Eastern will lose. But even two losses out of next five games gives them a Top 8 Seed.

UM:
As much as I hate to admit it, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where the Griz don’t get into the playoffs. Sure, they have offensive issues, especially if Humphery continues to be injured. But their defense is good, very good. They really only have a tough game left – against the Cats so a record of 9-2 or 8-3 is likely. At 9-2, they get a Seed most likely. But let’s see if Sac State is real.

MSU:
As stated, and will be many times, we have to win one out of three of the key games to be in the playoffs and win 2 out of 3 to get a seed. Obviously, the Cats are a good team. We will find out if they are great team.

***MY Apologies. Can't seem to figure out how to get a BIGGER Chart in from Imgur. I tried to make the link accessible to the public but that did not seem to work either. I have broken the chart apart. Any help on how to enlarge a chart? I will upload a new one soon as I can. Using Imgur and uploading a screen shot to imgur.com.

UPPER HALF OF CONFERENCE



LOWER HALF OF CONFERENCE




2) Playoff Status and Seeds
One of the first things to realize is this year there is only 11 games vs 12 in 2019. So the magic number of seven D1 wins is more difficult to achieve. Secondly, there are many good teams with no losses or only one loss. I think it is likely you will have to be 11-0 or 10-1 to get a top 4 seed. While there were some upsets last week, the list of potential Top 8 seeds include JMU and Villanova from CAA; NDSU, SDSU, and SIU from MVFC; Sam Houston State (Last year’s champion) and EWU, UM, UCD and MSU from the Big Sky. That leaves 10 solid teams plus another 3 or 4 that could easily be 9-2.

There is plenty of Seed and Bracket analysis out there in the following web sites so there is no need to go into huge depth. Here is my mini picture for now. Next week or two, I will have an depth look as we get closer to having only 2 or 3 games left.

Possible Undefeated Teams who would get a seed
1) NDSU (has to beat SDSU)
2) SHSU (Easy schedule rest of the way)
3) EWU ( Seems highly possible)
4) ETSU (soft schedule but getting to 11-0 seems possible

10-1 Teams – This is more guesswork put possible
1) JMU
2) Villanova (Easy schedule left)
3) UM/MSU
4) SIU (They don’t play NDSU)
5) SDSU (If they beat NDSU, then NDSU and SDSU are 1 loss teams)
6) URI ( Only one really tough game)

This simple scenario does not even take into account the softer teams out there with zero or one loss. It is possible although not likely that a solid MSU team at 9-2 would not even get a seed. Moreover, even more unlikely that any 8-3 team will get a seed. Now there are games to play and there are always upsets but of these 10 plus teams, I suggest the Cats have the toughest schedule – games against #2, #5 and #19.

Obvious to everyone that a) the Cats have a very tough schedule from here on out and they have to win 2 of the 3 road games to get a Seed. And remember there is one less “AT-LARGE Bid” because there is one more Auto-bid (WAC/Asun). Eventually, there will be two fewer at-large bids. This is truly a crime letting in less than good teams at the expense of the top three conferences.

Web Sites with brackets

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-5-bzbz/
https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fc ... acketology
https://www.dratings.com/predictor/ncaa ... ojections/

This chart is an overview of the season and where the Cats could end of at the end with regard to their record, a BSC championship and playoff seeding. There are a number of Capt. Obvious comments to make – which I am compelled to make simply to lay the groundwork.

Playoff Scenarios


Summary of Playoff Hopes
1) Cats have a very tough schedule – regardless of “Strength of Schedule” rankings. Overall, SOS only matters after the end of the season and where teams end up. But for now Eastern; Weber and UM all on the road is a tough line up.
2) There are many good teams in the FSC this year. It is possible; at least theoretically, that there could be 4 11-0 teams and 4-8 10-1 teams.
3) It is highly unlikely that a 7-4 team will make the playoffs this year. With the additional AQ and the tremendous strength of the top teams in the CAA/MVFC/Big Sky; there are going to be too many 9-2 and 8-3 teams.
4) The Cat’s must win two of three road games left to be in the discussion for a seed. Even at 9-2, this will not be a given.

3. Statistics and Lies and Damn Lies
I really only follow football so I can track statistics, build spreadsheets and do comparative analysis. But this week I am running out of time. Here are some summary statistics in a chart. We all know the Cats have had a great offense/defense balance so far this year. IN addition, a well rounded split between pass and rush. Makes the offense much harder to contain.



Interesting stat of the week: Here are the top 10 teams with their combined rank for Total Offense and Total Defense and the combined score. Now, I know it is only half way through the season and schedules don’t line up and there are games to play but…MSU has the second best combined score (19) and MSU and JMU are the only two schools whose defense and offense are in the Top 10. As you can see, the Griz are the worst at 74. Now, I will be the first to admit after playing Weber and Eastern, the Cats offense and defense ranks are likely to suffer. But still fun to look at.

1. Sam Houston – 8, 17 – 25
2. Eastern – 1, 49 – 50
3. NDSU – 29, 5 – 34
4. SUI – 14, 37 – 51
5. Montana – 52, 22 – 74
6. Villanova – 34, 12 – 46
7. SDSU – 4, 32 – 36
8. JMU – 9, 4 – 13
9. MSU – 10, 9 – 19
10. ETSU – 7, 42 – 49


4. Weber – Cat Game

What is there to say. Must win. I think the game will be close. I can see the Cats winning 27-17. But maybe only 60/40. I don’t see the Cats getting blown out due to Weber’s crippled offense. It is possible, but unlikely that the Cats could win going away. We all know what needs to happen to win. As do some of you, I struggle watching the Cats on TV because I have this misplaced belief that if I am at the stadium, I can make a difference in the outcome while watching on TV, I can only yell at the refs and stomp around! But I should be able to must up the courage to watch Friday night.

Due to lack of time, I will save more pontificating for next week. Win or Lose, the Path to the Playoffs will be more interesting next week. Much more to come! Go CATS

[Joe Bobcat]

Thanks Catprint that’s some very interesting work and I look forward to your coming weeks of additions.

[Catprint]

Here is a more readable table of the BSC situation. I only included the next two games for now.

Top Half of Conference



Bottom half

[kmax]

Wait, that was the mini version?! Wow, great stuff Catprint, thanks so much for the time you put into this. Loved it.

[Catsrgrood]

Wait, that was the mini version?! Wow, great stuff Catprint, thanks so much for the time you put into this. Loved it.

I was thinking the same thing.

I love it, it’s a great breakdown, but I’d hate to see a “normal” version.

[Long Time Cat]

Thanks! I found the statistics and damned lies section very interesting. It's nice to see we have almost the top score in the nation in that regard.

I am curious to see if we can "win going away." I think there's a chance.

[RockyBearCat]

Thanks! I found the statistics and damned lies section very interesting. It's nice to see we have almost the top score in the nation in that regard.

I am curious to see if we can "win going away." I think there's a chance.

I agree, that is interesting. I wonder where WEBER would rank? Maybe @Catprint could add the current week matchup going forward. Thanks for this, very interesting read.

[PortlandCat90]

Awesome job, CatPrint! Thanks for doing this.

For me, Weebs comes down to this (be prepared for some cliches'...): we have more depth/talent, and I think Vigen has done an awesome job at meshing these guys into with a very strong team culture. At some point in this game we'll face controversy - a bad call, their return guy getting some good yardage, or somebody geting whacked for 15. The team culture, along with some great senior leadership on both sides, will carry us through.

We are just too deep on defense and have that guy "EYE-FAH-NAZI" that's gonna carry it 28 times and wear 'em down. He can rest the next two weeks then go it again. I also expect a mistake towards the end of the 3rd quarter by their young quarterback that they won't be able to overcome.

Overall season, it comes down to us at EWU. Both have bye weeks the week before. I like our talent in the secondary this year to stay with their WRs. That will be for the trophy and a top 4 seeding.

Oh. Yeah. We'll pound the Griz.

[Prodigal Cat]

Man if that's the mini version......
You are correct that there are many teams that could end up undefeated but these things tend work themselves out. If you told me SDSU was going to lose a week ago i'd have called BS. They were in my mind the clear #1 in FCS and figured the NDSU game with them in few weeks would have be for the #1 seed. If you said AND JMU would lose as well I would have said you're an idiot.

One thing I think you didn't totally account for is WHEN the wins come. If the Cats lose to Weber, lose to EWU but beat UM we would be 8-3 and would probably get a #7 or #8 seed. EWU, Davis, and Cats would get seeds, it would be tough to give the griz a seed over us if we had just beat them. This happened though in 2019 and they gave the griz the seed just below us. The committee likes to see where you trending, what have you done lately. However if we win tonight and drop the other 2 games we finish 1-2 and on a loss and miss out on a seed (I believe) even though our record would be the same.

I like this team a lot and think we have a 50/50 chance of winning out. I think we are better in the passing game than the semifinal team of 2019 and pretty equal everywhere else. If we do I think a undefeated in conference team from a power conference with 3 quality teams on the road gets a top 2 seed. In fact I think the committee would put us @10-1 #2 and 11-0 SHSU #3 just on SOS.

[Catprint]

I can’t see an 8-3 team getting a seed at this point. But top teams knocking each other off will likely take a toll.

However, Sam Houston (SHSU) will absolutely get the number one seed if they are 11-0. Simply because they were last year’s champion. Unless they have a couple very close games to trash teams and drop in the polls to 3 or 4. It is like candy canes at Christmas! Tradition! SOS not withstanding.

[Catprint]

Well starting the week at 1-0 in the prediction column thanks to Troy and Hardy.! Will see what tomorrow brings.

Our offense stats will take a hit this week especially our strong third down conversion ratio. Defense stats will hold up including turnover ratio.

To answer where Weber ranks on the combined scale, 18 on D and 58 on offense for a combined score of 76 compared to Cats score of 13.

[RockyBearCat]

To answer where Weber ranks on the combined scale, 18 on D and 58 on offense for a combined score of 76 compared to Cats score of 13.

Thanks Catprint!

[Catprint]

Path to the Playoffs - WEEK 7

Heart Attack City right to the very end for the Weber game. More about that later but let’s dig right into our four pillars of the PTTP (Kind of like the PPP but without the money but still a long read with lots numbers and charts!!).

1) Big Sky Conference Status

Ok, to start the week off, I was 5-1 in my predictions. Easy week. And who could have called Sac State over Griz? Oh well. To follow the teams, I have divided the conference into tiers – Top, middle, bottom. In the interest of symmetry, I have kept the tiers at 4, 4, 5. Maybe I will alter some in future but even half way through the year, the lower end of the Big Sky is just a jumble. Half way through and 6 teams are out of the playoff hunt, 2 are teetering and 5 are right in it.

Top Dogs

Eastern Washington: Clearly the leader of the pack, there is no FCS comparison to Eric Barriere and the Eagles offense. 600 yards passing and 71 points? Come on! Take the starters out in the middle of the third quarter! Barriere leads the nation in Passing Efficiency; Passing Yds per game; yds per completion; and passing touchdowns. Not sure anyone is going to touch Eastern the rest of the year. Yes, they play Weber and the Cats (after a bye) so maybe there is a defensive scheme to slow them down. Have to score 40 points to win from my perspective. I think Weber is deflated and will be very flat against Eastern in Cheney. How in the heck did Eastern get three home games in a row and 3 out of four at home including UM, Weber and MSU? Sure does not look like balanced scheduling in my books.

Montana State: A win is a win – so they say. Worst record in the BSC likely would be 6-2. Cats are a real contender. Now, to take care of business this week and not be looking ahead.

UC Davis: Davis is a bit of a conundrum. Who are they? The team that beat Weber and Tulsa? The team that barely beat Idaho and lost to Idaho State? They have a soft middle schedule but all the FCS writers seem to think UCD is for real and deserves a top 10 spot – even a seed in the playoffs (according to collegemadness.com). I think it is too early to tell but as we will see later, that is true of all the top teams.

Sacramento State: Ok, out of nowhere rides Coach Taylor and Sac State after kicking the tail of the Griz. Watched the game and Griz offense was stymied. I do admit with Cam out of the game, hard to imagine any freshman doing better than Kris Brown did. The Hornets are a good team and a real threat. They are 3-0 in the Sky and have a super soft schedule. Their remaining five games include only one top tier team – UCD. Coach Taylor in his two-year role of head coach is 10-1 in the Big Sky. He is the fastest coach to 10 victories of all time. He seriously has his act together. I think we all thought without Kevin Thomson, Sac would go back to being a sad sack. Nothing jumps out about their stats – just solid play on both sides of the ball. They could go 8-0 or 7-1. Wait and see.



Middle Tier

Montana: Griz really deserve to be in the second tier? No, not really, I just wanted only four in the top tier and loved that the Griz lost so for now Griz is the best of the middle. Hard to say what type of team they really are. Last three games have been severely lacking all the way around. Moreover, the Top 25 win over UW is not looking at good now that UW is 2-4. (My opinion has always been that wins over ranked opponents ONLY matter if they are ranked at the end of the year. It means nothing to beat the #10 team on week 2 and then by the end of the season that same team is 3-8. Let’s see if they churn through the soft part of their schedule (Idaho, SUU and NCU). They could be 5-2 headed into the Brawl.

Weber State: Four-time Big Sky Champs are now 2-4. Yes, three of their FCS losses were all by one score. Yes, one play going the other way in the last two minutes and they could be 5-1. But they are not. Good teams win the easy teams. Great teams win the tough games. Great defense. Little offense. With Davis hurt, seems like maybe Weber’s time has passed? Let’s hope so. They have EWU next week. They will hold Eastern to under 40 points but the Weber offense can’t even score 20. They will be 2-5 and out of the playoffs. Besides, I don’t want Weber to win because that will burn inside the Eagles and they will come out hot against the Cats. Better they are challenged but still feel untouchable after playing Weber. It is all about the Karma!! Likely Weber will win out after Eastern loss.

Northern Arizona: Don’t even know what to say. They get smashed by Sam Houston in their first game; lose badly to South Dakota and then come back to beat Arizona. Start the BSC with a pathetic lose to NCU and then pound ISU and SUU. However, they have to play Sac ST, the Griz and Davis. They might end up 4-4

Portland State: PSU is 2-2 in the conference. While they can’t get to 7 DI wins due to playing a DII school, they could end up 5-3 by end of the year but more than likely 4-4 is the best they will get. They are not going to beat Eastern Washington but they could pull an upset over Weber. Plus they play Sac State in California. Their quarterback remains a star but rest of team lacking anything worth watching.

Bottom Feeders – Spoilers Only

This is last week they show up in the list. Will get mention only when they spoil someone’s resume

Idaho: You have to give up 71 points to Eastern? You used to be FBS? How the mighty have fallen. Offense is 48th in total yards but defense? Not sure they can spell it: 106th!! Sandwiched between the powerhouses of Bucknell (Go Engineers!) and Gardner-Webb (recent DII upstart). At least this year, we don’t play in the Giblet Dome – Looks like a dead turkey from the outside. I just hope UI doesn’t wake up the week before the Cat/Griz game.

Idaho State: Another conundrum – Beat UCD; crushed by PSU the next week. I don’t see much redemption in their season. They play MSU, Weber and BYU in next three games. However, they seem to always play the Bobcats tough – we lost in 2018 and close wins in 2017 and 2014 – three of the last four times we played. I certainly would not take them for granted. ISU’s defense is 114 out of 122.

Northern Colorado: Anyone seen a clipboard? I seem to have lost mine. At one point, there seemed to be some hope for NCU with the Football McCaffery’s taking over. But at 1-3 in the conference and haven given up 40, 63 and 32 in their last three games, I don’t see any hope for this year. Defense at 70th and offense at 114th. Guess that Michigan transfer was not quite what dad thought he was going to be.

Cal Poly: So doesn’t being the coach of a National Championship team make you a great coach? Remains to be seen. At Eastern, Beau was 85-32 with 1 Nattie and 3 semi appearances. His teams won 10 or more games 5 times. At Cal Poly, he is 1-8 and moving towards 2-12 after two seasons. CP has no aura anymore as a Triple Option team – they are 116 out of 123 in rushing. That would have been unheard of in the past.

Southern Utah: Used to be SUU could be counted on to have a good year every other year. Now, not so much. Maybe it is better they move on the WAC. No defense to speak of -72nd in points allowed and dead last in yards per game at 497.7 (well actually 2nd to last but who is counting). Offense is actually 38th in the FCS so they can move the ball. Maybe when Southern Utah and Idaho play, they will light up the field since neither team can stop an 8th grade flag football team.




2) Playoff Status and Seeds

Cats moving up to #8 in the polls has given us a mixed spot in the brackets of various web sites.
1) Collegesportsmadness still has the Cats unseeded and playing South Dakota.
2) Sam Herder, who seems to favor the Cats, has us at an 8th seed, playing the winner of Kennesaw State and Incarnate Word. I remember the Kennesaw game 4 years ago – should have won it at home. They are a tough team to play.
3) DRatings has MSU at #7 seed – ahead of UCD and behind Southern Illinois. We would play the winner of South Dakota vs Tennessee Martin. They also have five Big Sky teams in the playoffs. Not going to happen. Too many teams will beat each other up but…4 teams could end up 8-3 and 9-2. Hard to get a seed this year.
4) CBS Sports “Czar of the Playbook”, Emory Hunt (who in the heck nominated him Czar?) has the Cats at number three. He is clearly high on something. I love the Cats but they are no way the number three team in the country at this point. Maybe by end of the season. (see my later points about schedules).

Lots of good talk on the board about what ifs and how many teams get into the playoffs. I won’t repeat those scenarios nor will I try to put together all the possible seeds. Many web sites with all that information. One debate is whether Big Sky will get 4 or 5 teams in the playoffs. One poster suggests the BSC regularly gets five teams in the playoffs. Seemed high to me so I checked. Looking at our chart and skipping 2020, in the last 10 years, the Big Sky has never put five teams in the playoffs. We have put four teams in four different occasions. In 2019, we were the first conference to get four seeds in the tournament. I didn’t go through all the years for other conferences but I believe the MVFC is the only conference to get five teams in the playoffs and they did it three times: 2014, 2015, and 2017.



What is the bottom line for five teams in the playoffs?

1) There are too many teams undefeated or only with 1 loss this late in the season (14).
2) Remember, in 2019, there was a 12 game schedule so it was easier to get a seed with 3 losses or get into the playoffs with 4 losses.
3) Weber is NOT getting in with four losses. Doesn’t matter if they win out. In fact, NO BSC team is getting in with four losses unless the whole conference tubes all their games and the number 2 team has four losses.
4) Five teams (EWU, MSU, UM, Sac and UCD) are playing for FOUR spots in my opinion.

That all said, it is possible the BSC could have FIVE teams with 8-3 or better records. That would place a huge burden on the committee because the MVFC could also have five teams with 8-3 or better records. That means of the 13 at large spots, these two conferences could take 8 of the 13 spots and 10 of the 24 spots. Currently, Hero Sports has BSC with five and MVFC with five so it seems possible this year. But every game has to break the right way. I doubt they will. Someone is going to crash and burn to end the season. Let’s hope it is the Griz.

For the Cats, it is still very simple path to the playoffs

1) Win out and get #2 seed. (10-1)
2) Win the Idaho games and one of the big games and we get a seed but likely 4th to 6th. (9-2)
3) Win the Idaho games and lose both big games we get in the playoffs at 8-3 and we might get the #8 seed but only if a number of other teams tank at the end – in both the BSC and Missouri Valley.
4) Lose 3 of 4 and we are out. Even though we will have 7 D-1 wins, we will be on a downhill slide and will have lost to a very bad Idaho team (Spin the wheel and pick one).

3) Statistics and Lies and Damn Lies

Everyone is talking about schedules and soft schedules. Seems every fan thinks the other good teams have had soft schedules. So I wanted to summarize the top five teams up to this point. Here is how I am looking at it. I take each team and list overall record, # of D-1 wins; # of teams with winning records they have beaten and combined win % of all their Big Sky Opponents (since there is all this complaining that no one is playing anyone who is any good). Just a snapshot. What we learn is there are a lot of bad teams in the Big Sky.



So the facts don’t lie – they might cheat some, maybe hide the truth but they don’t lie.

1) The top five teams only have 1 BSC game victory over a team with a winning record (Sac over UM). No one can claim to be beating the top-notch BSC teams!
2) Four of the top five teams have played opponents with a combined winning percentage of about 33%.
3) All of the schedules have been against losing teams except UM. The Griz clearly have had the toughest conference schedule up to this point.
4) It is the second half of the season where winning teams start to knock heads with each other and separate the wheat from the chaff.

As far as the Cats, this week, we will look past our offensive stats since they all were lower except one. We improved in our Red Zone Scoring Rank (from 6th to 4th) because we only got in the red zone once in 14 possessions!!! Perfect example of Damn Lies.

Nevertheless, we have some nice defensive stats to look at this week.

IN all of FCS
Points Allowed:....Stayed at #3.
Rushing Defense:..Moved up to #18 from #24
Passing Defense:...Moved down to #8
Total Defense:......Moved up to #8
Sacks:................Moved up to #32

In BSC only games
Points Allowed:......1st
Rushing Defense:....3rd
Passing Defense:.....2nd
Total Defense:........2nd
Sacks:..................1st



None of this surprises any of us. The defense is solid even if we haven’t played anyone! But apparently neither has anyone else.


4) Cats Last Game and Next Game

Weber Game – A win is a win so everyone says. I would argue that is true for sake of conference standings and the auto bid (mostly). However, it is not true with regard to poll position and ultimately placement for a seed. Our offensive performance was dull and lackluster. A few consolidated facts for perusal. But I want to be clear, these are numbers for discussion. I am not the coach. I am not saying the game plan was wrong. Did I like it? No. Did it make sense? I am not sure.

According to the Chronicle, MSU rushed 43 times and 37 were up the middle. That is 86% of the time. Quite unreal when you think about it. 20 of those rushes were in the first half and 23 in the second half. If you remove the three victory formations from the list, here is the exact break down (as I rewatched the second half play by play – as painful as it was). I only looked at the second half because the game was tied at half time and it seems everyone should be making adjustments and the second half was the whole game.



As you can see, we ran 60% of the time and passed 40%. This was a better mix than I remembered until I reviewed. However, if you look at runs up the middle and short passes over the middle, those two sets of plays were 67% of our entire play calling. This certainly was a reflection of the very conservative play calling and a difficult game to watch from the offense’s perspective.

As a contrast, we ran the ball only 51% against Cal Poly, 64% against NCU (tons of success) and 69% against Portland State. The difference in the last two games being the Cats had over 200 yards rushing and pretty much had their way on the ground. Plus the play calling sure seemed to be more varied. But 60% is right in line with the last three games. Where the difference occurs, is in yardage gained. The Weber game was the lowest rushing total of the four conference games.

To give the coaches more credit than we tend to give them, there were only four running plays over 10 yards. Three in the first half were all between the tackles. (Ifanse, Elliot and Tommy). Only McKay’s run at the end was over 10 yards. Coach Vigen expressed that Weber was very tough to run outside the tackles. This appeared to be true. The gripe, I suppose, is that of the 18 run plays in the second half, 14 were up the middle; all the 3rd/4th down calls were up the middle; and we ran 70% of the time on second down. Maybe there was no success to be had no matter what we did.

The statistics bear out the following:
1) We ran about the same % of the time as in the other conference games
2) The outside run game had almost no success even though the number of attempts was low.
3) We had very few downfield pass attempts.
4) The passing game did not generate anywhere nearly the same number of yards per play as the previous games.

So maybe it was the right game plan given what everyone knew about Weber’s strengths. Who knows.

As I stated last week, I am not going to say much about the upcoming game. I know X’s and O’s when they are in Word documents or computer programs but not so much on the field of play. In the match-up world, ISU should be no problem: Poor offense against 3rd best defense in the FCS; Terrible defense (114th) against a solid run offense. Home game for the Cats. Should go our way but then that’s why we play each week. Don’t look past this game.

We will have two weeks to talk about the next game. No rush. Go Cats.

[Team10]

1) The top five teams only have 1 BSC game victory over a team with a winning record (Sac over UM). No one can claim to be beating the top-notch BSC teams!

Two of the top five teams have a victory over a team with a winning record Sac & EWU...of course both of them beating the same team.

[Catprint]

Yes - Sorry. I noticed the mistake at 7:00 am but only got to he correction now. There are two victories against winning teams - EWU and Sac against the Griz. Still, shows that none of the top teams have really played any teams with winning records.