Covid hits MSU athletes

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catatac
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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by catatac » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:08 pm

MSU01 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:38 am
ibleedblue wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:30 am
I just read daily deaths are down over 90% from their peak in mid-April. There were 250 deaths yesterday compared to 2700 in April peaks. For perspective, 7500 people died yesterday in the US from something other than covid. Covid deaths made up only .03% of overall deaths yesterday. This decrease has been happening for 9 straight weeks now. Media coverage on that = crickets.
I've seen plenty of news coverage about the death counts decreasing and it's great news. Make no mistake though, if the rampant exponential growth of cases continues then an increase in deaths will inevitably follow. And 250 is 3% of 7500, not .03%
But this is not necessarily true. IMO a lot of the "Rampant exponential growth of cases" is simply because we are now testing way, way more people than we ever have. I'm not sure why this is so hard for some people to grasp. Is "re opening" the economy, allowing large group protests, allowing weddings, etc... causing more people to get exposed to and potentially contract the virus? Absolutely, because it's contagious. However, is that just a tiny blip on the radar in the grand scheme of things? I think so. For all we know there could have been double the # of infected people in this country a month ago, than there are today.


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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by ibleedblue » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:18 pm

MSU01 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:38 am
ibleedblue wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:30 am
I just read daily deaths are down over 90% from their peak in mid-April. There were 250 deaths yesterday compared to 2700 in April peaks. For perspective, 7500 people died yesterday in the US from something other than covid. Covid deaths made up only .03% of overall deaths yesterday. This decrease has been happening for 9 straight weeks now. Media coverage on that = crickets.
I've seen plenty of news coverage about the death counts decreasing and it's great news. Make no mistake though, if the rampant exponential growth of cases continues then an increase in deaths will inevitably follow. And 250 is 3% of 7500, not .03%
Maybe not though. If the elderly and vulnerable are properly sheltered then the majority of the new cases are young people....who survive this thing at alarming rates. So then you’ll have way more cases and even less death and more herd immunity. Cases doesn’t automatically equal death.



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by MSU01 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:24 pm

catatac wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:08 pm
MSU01 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:38 am
ibleedblue wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:30 am
I just read daily deaths are down over 90% from their peak in mid-April. There were 250 deaths yesterday compared to 2700 in April peaks. For perspective, 7500 people died yesterday in the US from something other than covid. Covid deaths made up only .03% of overall deaths yesterday. This decrease has been happening for 9 straight weeks now. Media coverage on that = crickets.
I've seen plenty of news coverage about the death counts decreasing and it's great news. Make no mistake though, if the rampant exponential growth of cases continues then an increase in deaths will inevitably follow. And 250 is 3% of 7500, not .03%
But this is not necessarily true. IMO a lot of the "Rampant exponential growth of cases" is simply because we are now testing way, way more people than we ever have. I'm not sure why this is so hard for some people to grasp. Is "re opening" the economy, allowing large group protests, allowing weddings, etc... causing more people to get exposed to and potentially contract the virus? Absolutely, because it's contagious. However, is that just a tiny blip on the radar in the grand scheme of things? I think so. For all we know there could have been double the # of infected people in this country a month ago, than there are today.
We need to do a lot better than "IMO" to identify why case numbers are rising so fast. While increased testing does in fact account for some of the rise in confirmed case numbers, the most recent data released by the CDC indicated that positivity rates of Covid-19 tests increased when compared to the prior week. If we were simply testing more people, more cases would be found but the positivity rate should either stay constant or decline.


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GoldstoneCat
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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by GoldstoneCat » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:32 pm

catatac wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:08 pm
MSU01 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:38 am
ibleedblue wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:30 am
I just read daily deaths are down over 90% from their peak in mid-April. There were 250 deaths yesterday compared to 2700 in April peaks. For perspective, 7500 people died yesterday in the US from something other than covid. Covid deaths made up only .03% of overall deaths yesterday. This decrease has been happening for 9 straight weeks now. Media coverage on that = crickets.
I've seen plenty of news coverage about the death counts decreasing and it's great news. Make no mistake though, if the rampant exponential growth of cases continues then an increase in deaths will inevitably follow. And 250 is 3% of 7500, not .03%
But this is not necessarily true. IMO a lot of the "Rampant exponential growth of cases" is simply because we are now testing way, way more people than we ever have. I'm not sure why this is so hard for some people to grasp. Is "re opening" the economy, allowing large group protests, allowing weddings, etc... causing more people to get exposed to and potentially contract the virus? Absolutely, because it's contagious. However, is that just a tiny blip on the radar in the grand scheme of things? I think so. For all we know there could have been double the # of infected people in this country a month ago, than there are today.
The positive rate is what to pay attention to. Today's is at least twice as high as yesterday's based on number of tests, even though today's topline number is smaller. Now, are we doing more testing along chains of contact tracing, leading to more found cases? Perhaps. But this virus can kill people, it can kill healthy people, and it can make healthy people sick for a long time. Will it do that to me? You? Probably not but that's the rub, no way to know without getting it. For many the answer will be yes, and that's why all the consternation.



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by MSU01 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:33 pm

ibleedblue wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:18 pm
MSU01 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:38 am
ibleedblue wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:30 am
I just read daily deaths are down over 90% from their peak in mid-April. There were 250 deaths yesterday compared to 2700 in April peaks. For perspective, 7500 people died yesterday in the US from something other than covid. Covid deaths made up only .03% of overall deaths yesterday. This decrease has been happening for 9 straight weeks now. Media coverage on that = crickets.
I've seen plenty of news coverage about the death counts decreasing and it's great news. Make no mistake though, if the rampant exponential growth of cases continues then an increase in deaths will inevitably follow. And 250 is 3% of 7500, not .03%
Maybe not though. If the elderly and vulnerable are properly sheltered then the majority of the new cases are young people....who survive this thing at alarming rates. So then you’ll have way more cases and even less death and more herd immunity. Cases doesn’t automatically equal death.
Hospitalization rates are already beginning to increase in the areas that have seen dramatic increases in cases, like Texas and California. More hospitalizations = more severe cases = more deaths, period.

Will the death numbers increase as quickly as the case numbers have? No, probably not - especially if it's true that younger people are accounting for a greater share of new cases than they were previously.


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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by ilovethecats » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:23 pm

MSU01 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:46 am
ilovethecats wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:50 pm
catatac wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:31 pm
TomCat88 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:44 pm
catatac wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:27 pm
Covid deaths are still dropping, tapering off significantly as Iooked at today's numbers.
They are and that's great. I tend to believe that's the biggest stat assuming that the people just getting sick are recovering fully. The Sunday and Monday numbers are always way down for some reason. I believe most counts are from the previous day, so Sun/Mon counts are actually Sat/Sun counts and since it's the weekend a lot of numbers aren't recorded until the Tuesday count, which is almost always the highest. I always compare day of the week numbers, because day-by-day can be misleading.

But, yes, low death counts are great to see despite the high number of cases. I hope that holds and the death spike isn't coming in a few days, but I'm leery of that because that's how it went in New York and New Jersey a couple months ago. I think it's mostly due to more testing and better ability to curb its effects. Keeping fingers crossed.
Yes! Same here, it's always interesting to see those numbers and yes, the peak for the week is always Tues or Wed. At any rate, same here with the fingers crossed. The overall trend is trending the right way for now. I don't know how to post just the graph for the U.S. since this started, but it's in this link if people want to look.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Cases are going way up. Deaths have been going down. Even if the positive cases are the ONLY positive cases this is a good thing. If you’re of the belief that I am, that there are WAY more people positive than we know about, this decline in deaths is even more important.

If the epidemiologists that predicted positive cases could be EIGHTY times higher than we know....what does that say about the deadliness or even the danger of the virus?
Yes, great news that deaths have been declining. My guess is that with better access to testing we're finding many more asymptomatic and mild cases in younger, healthier people now than we were back in March, which is contributing to increased confirmed cases but decreased deaths.

However, we also know that death numbers lag behind case numbers by a couple weeks since people obviously don't die immediately upon diagnosis. So we'll need to wait a few weeks to get the full picture of what the data from the current spike in case numbers really tells us.
Totally agree. We're always about 2-3 behind of what is actually going on and adjusting on the fly.

What are your thoughts on the idea that some epidemiologists think as many as 80x more people have been infected that we know about? You think that is possible or just more misinformation?



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by BleedingBLue » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:42 pm

I have an uncle in Helena who spoke with the state health inspector today about the recent cases. Out family was supposed to have a 60th wedding anniversary party for my grandparents this weekend and the inspector advised my uncle that the majority of the recent cases have come from large family gatherings including weddings, birthday parties etc. and said it would be best to delay the party.



MSU01
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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by MSU01 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:01 pm

ilovethecats wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:23 pm
MSU01 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:46 am
ilovethecats wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:50 pm
catatac wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:31 pm
TomCat88 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:44 pm
catatac wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:27 pm
Covid deaths are still dropping, tapering off significantly as Iooked at today's numbers.
They are and that's great. I tend to believe that's the biggest stat assuming that the people just getting sick are recovering fully. The Sunday and Monday numbers are always way down for some reason. I believe most counts are from the previous day, so Sun/Mon counts are actually Sat/Sun counts and since it's the weekend a lot of numbers aren't recorded until the Tuesday count, which is almost always the highest. I always compare day of the week numbers, because day-by-day can be misleading.

But, yes, low death counts are great to see despite the high number of cases. I hope that holds and the death spike isn't coming in a few days, but I'm leery of that because that's how it went in New York and New Jersey a couple months ago. I think it's mostly due to more testing and better ability to curb its effects. Keeping fingers crossed.
Yes! Same here, it's always interesting to see those numbers and yes, the peak for the week is always Tues or Wed. At any rate, same here with the fingers crossed. The overall trend is trending the right way for now. I don't know how to post just the graph for the U.S. since this started, but it's in this link if people want to look.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Cases are going way up. Deaths have been going down. Even if the positive cases are the ONLY positive cases this is a good thing. If you’re of the belief that I am, that there are WAY more people positive than we know about, this decline in deaths is even more important.

If the epidemiologists that predicted positive cases could be EIGHTY times higher than we know....what does that say about the deadliness or even the danger of the virus?
Yes, great news that deaths have been declining. My guess is that with better access to testing we're finding many more asymptomatic and mild cases in younger, healthier people now than we were back in March, which is contributing to increased confirmed cases but decreased deaths.

However, we also know that death numbers lag behind case numbers by a couple weeks since people obviously don't die immediately upon diagnosis. So we'll need to wait a few weeks to get the full picture of what the data from the current spike in case numbers really tells us.
Totally agree. We're always about 2-3 behind of what is actually going on and adjusting on the fly.

What are your thoughts on the idea that some epidemiologists think as many as 80x more people have been infected that we know about? You think that is possible or just more misinformation?
I've read that article and I absolutely do think it's possible that their estimate is valid. It is definitely at the far high end of estimates of the case undercount, but I don't think any legitimate researchers like these are intentionally spreading misinformation.


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ilovethecats
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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by ilovethecats » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:03 pm

BleedingBLue wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:42 pm
I have an uncle in Helena who spoke with the state health inspector today about the recent cases. Out family was supposed to have a 60th wedding anniversary party for my grandparents this weekend and the inspector advised my uncle that the majority of the recent cases have come from large family gatherings including weddings, birthday parties etc. and said it would be best to delay the party.
Man that's a bummer, sorry to hear that.



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by ilovethecats » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:16 pm

MSU01 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:01 pm
ilovethecats wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:23 pm
MSU01 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:46 am
ilovethecats wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:50 pm
catatac wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:31 pm
TomCat88 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:44 pm
catatac wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:27 pm
Covid deaths are still dropping, tapering off significantly as Iooked at today's numbers.
They are and that's great. I tend to believe that's the biggest stat assuming that the people just getting sick are recovering fully. The Sunday and Monday numbers are always way down for some reason. I believe most counts are from the previous day, so Sun/Mon counts are actually Sat/Sun counts and since it's the weekend a lot of numbers aren't recorded until the Tuesday count, which is almost always the highest. I always compare day of the week numbers, because day-by-day can be misleading.

But, yes, low death counts are great to see despite the high number of cases. I hope that holds and the death spike isn't coming in a few days, but I'm leery of that because that's how it went in New York and New Jersey a couple months ago. I think it's mostly due to more testing and better ability to curb its effects. Keeping fingers crossed.
Yes! Same here, it's always interesting to see those numbers and yes, the peak for the week is always Tues or Wed. At any rate, same here with the fingers crossed. The overall trend is trending the right way for now. I don't know how to post just the graph for the U.S. since this started, but it's in this link if people want to look.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Cases are going way up. Deaths have been going down. Even if the positive cases are the ONLY positive cases this is a good thing. If you’re of the belief that I am, that there are WAY more people positive than we know about, this decline in deaths is even more important.

If the epidemiologists that predicted positive cases could be EIGHTY times higher than we know....what does that say about the deadliness or even the danger of the virus?
Yes, great news that deaths have been declining. My guess is that with better access to testing we're finding many more asymptomatic and mild cases in younger, healthier people now than we were back in March, which is contributing to increased confirmed cases but decreased deaths.

However, we also know that death numbers lag behind case numbers by a couple weeks since people obviously don't die immediately upon diagnosis. So we'll need to wait a few weeks to get the full picture of what the data from the current spike in case numbers really tells us.
Totally agree. We're always about 2-3 behind of what is actually going on and adjusting on the fly.

What are your thoughts on the idea that some epidemiologists think as many as 80x more people have been infected that we know about? You think that is possible or just more misinformation?
I've read that article and I absolutely do think it's possible that their estimate is valid. It is definitely at the far high end of estimates of the case undercount, but I don't think any legitimate researchers like these are intentionally spreading misinformation.
Me neither. I enjoy your takes. Seem very reasonable.

I just asked because I was told these predictions, or those saying the virus may have been in the states longer than we know about, was simply misinformation.

I agree that would seem to be the far high estimates of these kinds of predictions. That would amount to about 213 million people in the US positive. With all things considered if they were right it would really change the entire landscape of this entire pandemic. I've been curious why this number doesn't seem to be getting any talk like the early numbers of possible deaths did. People were all about those and accepted them as truth. This 80x prediction...not so much. That has been fascinating to me.

Hell even if they were a little right and the number of positives in the country was 10x more than we know about, that's still almost 27 million people infected thus completely changing the scope of the virus as the deaths and hospitalizations already are what they are. I'm hoping they're able to research this idea more and see how accurate it may be.



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Posts: 4187
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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by MSU01 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:30 pm

ilovethecats wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:16 pm
MSU01 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:01 pm
ilovethecats wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:23 pm
MSU01 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:46 am
ilovethecats wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:50 pm
catatac wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:31 pm
TomCat88 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:44 pm
catatac wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:27 pm
Covid deaths are still dropping, tapering off significantly as Iooked at today's numbers.
They are and that's great. I tend to believe that's the biggest stat assuming that the people just getting sick are recovering fully. The Sunday and Monday numbers are always way down for some reason. I believe most counts are from the previous day, so Sun/Mon counts are actually Sat/Sun counts and since it's the weekend a lot of numbers aren't recorded until the Tuesday count, which is almost always the highest. I always compare day of the week numbers, because day-by-day can be misleading.

But, yes, low death counts are great to see despite the high number of cases. I hope that holds and the death spike isn't coming in a few days, but I'm leery of that because that's how it went in New York and New Jersey a couple months ago. I think it's mostly due to more testing and better ability to curb its effects. Keeping fingers crossed.
Yes! Same here, it's always interesting to see those numbers and yes, the peak for the week is always Tues or Wed. At any rate, same here with the fingers crossed. The overall trend is trending the right way for now. I don't know how to post just the graph for the U.S. since this started, but it's in this link if people want to look.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Cases are going way up. Deaths have been going down. Even if the positive cases are the ONLY positive cases this is a good thing. If you’re of the belief that I am, that there are WAY more people positive than we know about, this decline in deaths is even more important.

If the epidemiologists that predicted positive cases could be EIGHTY times higher than we know....what does that say about the deadliness or even the danger of the virus?
Yes, great news that deaths have been declining. My guess is that with better access to testing we're finding many more asymptomatic and mild cases in younger, healthier people now than we were back in March, which is contributing to increased confirmed cases but decreased deaths.

However, we also know that death numbers lag behind case numbers by a couple weeks since people obviously don't die immediately upon diagnosis. So we'll need to wait a few weeks to get the full picture of what the data from the current spike in case numbers really tells us.
Totally agree. We're always about 2-3 behind of what is actually going on and adjusting on the fly.

What are your thoughts on the idea that some epidemiologists think as many as 80x more people have been infected that we know about? You think that is possible or just more misinformation?
I've read that article and I absolutely do think it's possible that their estimate is valid. It is definitely at the far high end of estimates of the case undercount, but I don't think any legitimate researchers like these are intentionally spreading misinformation.
Me neither. I enjoy your takes. Seem very reasonable.

I just asked because I was told these predictions, or those saying the virus may have been in the states longer than we know about, was simply misinformation.

I agree that would seem to be the far high estimates of these kinds of predictions. That would amount to about 213 million people in the US positive. With all things considered if they were right it would really change the entire landscape of this entire pandemic. I've been curious why this number doesn't seem to be getting any talk like the early numbers of possible deaths did. People were all about those and accepted them as truth. This 80x prediction...not so much. That has been fascinating to me.

Hell even if they were a little right and the number of positives in the country was 10x more than we know about, that's still almost 27 million people infected thus completely changing the scope of the virus as the deaths and hospitalizations already are what they are. I'm hoping they're able to research this idea more and see how accurate it may be.
I'd be thrilled if the 80x number were true, and much more research is definitely needed on this. My concern is that a lot of people seem to be latching onto every "best case scenario" piece of data that is released and use this to try and justify why we shouldn't be concerned about the virus, while ignoring or devaluing other, less optimistic estimates that could just as easily be accurate.

I'd love it if the best case scenario turns out to be right, but I also think we need to take a look at all the available data that's out there when making decisions from the personal level all the way up to the state and federal government level.


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PHAT CAT
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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by PHAT CAT » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:30 pm

Happy Birthday Tommy. Hope you're having a good one. ESG-GO CATS GO!



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by ilovethecats » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:54 pm

MSU01 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:30 pm
ilovethecats wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:16 pm
MSU01 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:01 pm
ilovethecats wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:23 pm
MSU01 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:46 am
ilovethecats wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:50 pm
catatac wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:31 pm
TomCat88 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:44 pm
catatac wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:27 pm
Covid deaths are still dropping, tapering off significantly as Iooked at today's numbers.
They are and that's great. I tend to believe that's the biggest stat assuming that the people just getting sick are recovering fully. The Sunday and Monday numbers are always way down for some reason. I believe most counts are from the previous day, so Sun/Mon counts are actually Sat/Sun counts and since it's the weekend a lot of numbers aren't recorded until the Tuesday count, which is almost always the highest. I always compare day of the week numbers, because day-by-day can be misleading.

But, yes, low death counts are great to see despite the high number of cases. I hope that holds and the death spike isn't coming in a few days, but I'm leery of that because that's how it went in New York and New Jersey a couple months ago. I think it's mostly due to more testing and better ability to curb its effects. Keeping fingers crossed.
Yes! Same here, it's always interesting to see those numbers and yes, the peak for the week is always Tues or Wed. At any rate, same here with the fingers crossed. The overall trend is trending the right way for now. I don't know how to post just the graph for the U.S. since this started, but it's in this link if people want to look.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Cases are going way up. Deaths have been going down. Even if the positive cases are the ONLY positive cases this is a good thing. If you’re of the belief that I am, that there are WAY more people positive than we know about, this decline in deaths is even more important.

If the epidemiologists that predicted positive cases could be EIGHTY times higher than we know....what does that say about the deadliness or even the danger of the virus?
Yes, great news that deaths have been declining. My guess is that with better access to testing we're finding many more asymptomatic and mild cases in younger, healthier people now than we were back in March, which is contributing to increased confirmed cases but decreased deaths.

However, we also know that death numbers lag behind case numbers by a couple weeks since people obviously don't die immediately upon diagnosis. So we'll need to wait a few weeks to get the full picture of what the data from the current spike in case numbers really tells us.
Totally agree. We're always about 2-3 behind of what is actually going on and adjusting on the fly.

What are your thoughts on the idea that some epidemiologists think as many as 80x more people have been infected that we know about? You think that is possible or just more misinformation?
I've read that article and I absolutely do think it's possible that their estimate is valid. It is definitely at the far high end of estimates of the case undercount, but I don't think any legitimate researchers like these are intentionally spreading misinformation.
Me neither. I enjoy your takes. Seem very reasonable.

I just asked because I was told these predictions, or those saying the virus may have been in the states longer than we know about, was simply misinformation.

I agree that would seem to be the far high estimates of these kinds of predictions. That would amount to about 213 million people in the US positive. With all things considered if they were right it would really change the entire landscape of this entire pandemic. I've been curious why this number doesn't seem to be getting any talk like the early numbers of possible deaths did. People were all about those and accepted them as truth. This 80x prediction...not so much. That has been fascinating to me.

Hell even if they were a little right and the number of positives in the country was 10x more than we know about, that's still almost 27 million people infected thus completely changing the scope of the virus as the deaths and hospitalizations already are what they are. I'm hoping they're able to research this idea more and see how accurate it may be.
I'd be thrilled if the 80x number were true, and much more research is definitely needed on this. My concern is that a lot of people seem to be latching onto every "best case scenario" piece of data that is released and use this to try and justify why we shouldn't be concerned about the virus, while ignoring or devaluing other, less optimistic estimates that could just as easily be accurate.

I'd love it if the best case scenario turns out to be right, but I also think we need to take a look at all the available data that's out there when making decisions from the personal level all the way up to the state and federal government level.
Good points.

I understand what you’re saying about not latching on to a best case scenario. But all those on my side of the fence are living a pretty terrible case scenario already. We already latched on to the idea that this thing is the most dangerous virus of our lifetimes, capable of killing millions. We’ve had no choice. The actions we’ve been forced to take tell us so.

So when doctors speak up publicly about how their hospitals are far from overrun, I don’t look at it like latching on to a best case scenario. Nor do I think that when scientists say they wouldn’t be surprised if the virus was here before we thought. Even mentioning that idea, I was told I was “buying into misinformation”. So when really smart people are suggesting the rate of positive cases may be far higher than we know, I don’t feel I’m just latching to a best case scenario.

From the onset of this thing we’ve heard nothing but how deadly it is. How it will shut down hospitals. Sports will cease, schools will close. It’s so bad we had to lock up businesses and stay home. Kids can’t go to parks, families can’t go to funerals. Too many lives are at stake. This is all we’ve heard and been forced to follow since March. So with all do respect, I don’t think that anyone who is listening to other viewpoints, that may paint a different picture of the virus, are just praying for a best case scenario. I think we’re just listening to other opinions and assessments of the virus.

I just don’t know why those that are so fearful of it, almost refuse to hear the other side. It’s like they want it to be something just awful so they can be right. If you have a different opinion they’ll make you feel like some dumb idiot incapable of seeing something so obvious. I’m honestly convinced it could cone out tomorrow that every person on the planet has already been infected with Covid, and there would be some still going on and on about how dangerous it is to everyone. It’s been fascinating to read but sometimes I just can’t figure it out.



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by Marana CAT » Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:38 am

With all the covid doom and gloom in news, maybe people should look into the actual data (vs. media hysteria).

This is where we stand in Montana: On 15 April we were testing 136 people per day, we had completed 9,234 tests, 7 total deaths, 24 people in the hospital, and 399 total cases. By June 27th we were testing 1,227 people per day, an 802% increase in testing. 82,474 tests had been completed, 22 deaths, 11 hospitalizations, and 863 total cases.

What does this tell us.

On 15 Apr: Of all people tested (9234), only 4.3% (399) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 95.7% didnt have covid, just common flu.

On 27 June: Of all people tested (82,464), only 1.04% (863) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 98.96% didnt have covid, just common flu. So over the last 2.5 months the percent of people with flu symptoms who tested positive for covid-19 in Montana has dropped by 75%.

Lets look at hospitalizations: 15 April: 24 hospitalized of 202 active cases, or 11.9%. 27 Jun: 11 hospitalized of 237 active cases, or 4.64%, a 61% decrease. (95%+ of people with covid will not require admissible Medical Care)

In summary: We went from testing 136 people a day in Montana (9,234 tests on April 15th), to 1,227 tests per day (and 82,474 total tests). Active cases have only gone from 202 on 15 April to 237 on 27 June. 22 total covid deaths in a population of 1,062,000 Montanans or .002% (99.998% chance of non exposure or survival to exposure as of 27 Jun).

Lets look at things on the national level: 15 April: 2,680 covid deaths per day. 138,095 daily tests conducted.
29 Jun: 332 covid deaths per day. 569,394 daily tests conducted

This yields a 87.6% decrease in the daily death rate from covid, ON A NATIONAL LEVEL. How come we are not celebrating this? Basically, the data tells me that the news outlets are simply reporting the total number of cases and the daily increases in cases. They are not reporting that hospitalization rates have plummeted, death rates have plummeted, survival rates have skyrocketed, and they have focused entirely on "cases". Obviously, more cases are a result of massive increase in testing.

Testing 15 April: 3,287,635 total tests.
Testing 29 June: 31,557,407 total tests.

Big numbers sell more adds than decreasing death rates. Not to diminish the impact of covid-19 or its seriousness, but accurate reporting would be nice. Even with opening the state, at least here in Montana things seem to be on a positive trajectory. Keep the faith and wash your hands.

National Data: www.covidtracking.com

Montana Data: montana.maps.arcgis.com


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BleedingBLue
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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by BleedingBLue » Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:33 am

Thank you!!!!!



Mtcatfan
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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by Mtcatfan » Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:51 am

Marana CAT wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:38 am
With all the covid doom and gloom in news, maybe people should look into the actual data (vs. media hysteria).

This is where we stand in Montana: On 15 April we were testing 136 people per day, we had completed 9,234 tests, 7 total deaths, 24 people in the hospital, and 399 total cases. By June 27th we were testing 1,227 people per day, an 802% increase in testing. 82,474 tests had been completed, 22 deaths, 11 hospitalizations, and 863 total cases.

What does this tell us.

On 15 Apr: Of all people tested (9234), only 4.3% (399) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 95.7% didnt have covid, just common flu.

On 27 June: Of all people tested (82,464), only 1.04% (863) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 98.96% didnt have covid, just common flu. So over the last 2.5 months the percent of people with flu symptoms who tested positive for covid-19 in Montana has dropped by 75%.

Lets look at hospitalizations: 15 April: 24 hospitalized of 202 active cases, or 11.9%. 27 Jun: 11 hospitalized of 237 active cases, or 4.64%, a 61% decrease. (95%+ of people with covid will not require admissible Medical Care)

In summary: We went from testing 136 people a day in Montana (9,234 tests on April 15th), to 1,227 tests per day (and 82,474 total tests). Active cases have only gone from 202 on 15 April to 237 on 27 June. 22 total covid deaths in a population of 1,062,000 Montanans or .002% (99.998% chance of non exposure or survival to exposure as of 27 Jun).

Lets look at things on the national level: 15 April: 2,680 covid deaths per day. 138,095 daily tests conducted.
29 Jun: 332 covid deaths per day. 569,394 daily tests conducted

This yields a 87.6% decrease in the daily death rate from covid, ON A NATIONAL LEVEL. How come we are not celebrating this? Basically, the data tells me that the news outlets are simply reporting the total number of cases and the daily increases in cases. They are not reporting that hospitalization rates have plummeted, death rates have plummeted, survival rates have skyrocketed, and they have focused entirely on "cases". Obviously, more cases are a result of massive increase in testing.

Testing 15 April: 3,287,635 total tests.
Testing 29 June: 31,557,407 total tests.

Big numbers sell more adds than decreasing death rates. Not to diminish the impact of covid-19 or its seriousness, but accurate reporting would be nice. Even with opening the state, at least here in Montana things seem to be on a positive trajectory. Keep the faith and wash your hands.

National Data: www.covidtracking.com

Montana Data: montana.maps.arcgis.com
Great post.



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by FTG247365 » Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:21 am

Mtcatfan wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:51 am
Marana CAT wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:38 am
With all the covid doom and gloom in news, maybe people should look into the actual data (vs. media hysteria).

This is where we stand in Montana: On 15 April we were testing 136 people per day, we had completed 9,234 tests, 7 total deaths, 24 people in the hospital, and 399 total cases. By June 27th we were testing 1,227 people per day, an 802% increase in testing. 82,474 tests had been completed, 22 deaths, 11 hospitalizations, and 863 total cases.

What does this tell us.

On 15 Apr: Of all people tested (9234), only 4.3% (399) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 95.7% didnt have covid, just common flu.

On 27 June: Of all people tested (82,464), only 1.04% (863) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 98.96% didnt have covid, just common flu. So over the last 2.5 months the percent of people with flu symptoms who tested positive for covid-19 in Montana has dropped by 75%.

Lets look at hospitalizations: 15 April: 24 hospitalized of 202 active cases, or 11.9%. 27 Jun: 11 hospitalized of 237 active cases, or 4.64%, a 61% decrease. (95%+ of people with covid will not require admissible Medical Care)

In summary: We went from testing 136 people a day in Montana (9,234 tests on April 15th), to 1,227 tests per day (and 82,474 total tests). Active cases have only gone from 202 on 15 April to 237 on 27 June. 22 total covid deaths in a population of 1,062,000 Montanans or .002% (99.998% chance of non exposure or survival to exposure as of 27 Jun).

Lets look at things on the national level: 15 April: 2,680 covid deaths per day. 138,095 daily tests conducted.
29 Jun: 332 covid deaths per day. 569,394 daily tests conducted

This yields a 87.6% decrease in the daily death rate from covid, ON A NATIONAL LEVEL. How come we are not celebrating this? Basically, the data tells me that the news outlets are simply reporting the total number of cases and the daily increases in cases. They are not reporting that hospitalization rates have plummeted, death rates have plummeted, survival rates have skyrocketed, and they have focused entirely on "cases". Obviously, more cases are a result of massive increase in testing.

Testing 15 April: 3,287,635 total tests.
Testing 29 June: 31,557,407 total tests.

Big numbers sell more adds than decreasing death rates. Not to diminish the impact of covid-19 or its seriousness, but accurate reporting would be nice. Even with opening the state, at least here in Montana things seem to be on a positive trajectory. Keep the faith and wash your hands.

National Data: www.covidtracking.com

Montana Data: montana.maps.arcgis.com
Great post.
Love it when facts rise to the surface, Thank You! Hard to watch national news and not feel like seconding guessing what they are "reporting".



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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by 91catAlum » Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:32 am

Marana CAT wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:38 am
With all the covid doom and gloom in news, maybe people should look into the actual data (vs. media hysteria).

This is where we stand in Montana: On 15 April we were testing 136 people per day, we had completed 9,234 tests, 7 total deaths, 24 people in the hospital, and 399 total cases. By June 27th we were testing 1,227 people per day, an 802% increase in testing. 82,474 tests had been completed, 22 deaths, 11 hospitalizations, and 863 total cases.

What does this tell us.

On 15 Apr: Of all people tested (9234), only 4.3% (399) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 95.7% didnt have covid, just common flu.

On 27 June: Of all people tested (82,464), only 1.04% (863) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 98.96% didnt have covid, just common flu. So over the last 2.5 months the percent of people with flu symptoms who tested positive for covid-19 in Montana has dropped by 75%.

Lets look at hospitalizations: 15 April: 24 hospitalized of 202 active cases, or 11.9%. 27 Jun: 11 hospitalized of 237 active cases, or 4.64%, a 61% decrease. (95%+ of people with covid will not require admissible Medical Care)

In summary: We went from testing 136 people a day in Montana (9,234 tests on April 15th), to 1,227 tests per day (and 82,474 total tests). Active cases have only gone from 202 on 15 April to 237 on 27 June. 22 total covid deaths in a population of 1,062,000 Montanans or .002% (99.998% chance of non exposure or survival to exposure as of 27 Jun).

Lets look at things on the national level: 15 April: 2,680 covid deaths per day. 138,095 daily tests conducted.
29 Jun: 332 covid deaths per day. 569,394 daily tests conducted

This yields a 87.6% decrease in the daily death rate from covid, ON A NATIONAL LEVEL. How come we are not celebrating this? Basically, the data tells me that the news outlets are simply reporting the total number of cases and the daily increases in cases. They are not reporting that hospitalization rates have plummeted, death rates have plummeted, survival rates have skyrocketed, and they have focused entirely on "cases". Obviously, more cases are a result of massive increase in testing.

Testing 15 April: 3,287,635 total tests.
Testing 29 June: 31,557,407 total tests.

Big numbers sell more adds than decreasing death rates. Not to diminish the impact of covid-19 or its seriousness, but accurate reporting would be nice. Even with opening the state, at least here in Montana things seem to be on a positive trajectory. Keep the faith and wash your hands.

National Data: www.covidtracking.com

Montana Data: montana.maps.arcgis.com
THIS is why its all so confusing, and why many people dare to question the "experts". You hear doom and gloom in the media 24/7 and how everything is blowing up again (even heard a rumor Bullock was going to move MT back to phase 1!!!); then you see the data presented like this and it seems like things are really improving.
Why is it so hard to get honest, real information?!?


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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by CelticCat » Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:46 am

It makes sense the death rates would be dropping significantly because in April the test were still being rationed to severe cases, many were turned away when they wanted to get tested. If you were tested in April it's because you were showing more than moderate symptoms and were also likely in a higher risk category.

Another contributing factor in the death rate is that more younger people are testing positive, and less elderly are (same sourced MaranaCAT used), which makes sense when you think about it. The higher risk you are the more you are going to protect yourself, and with states reopening across the country, protests, large gatherings, etc. there are going to be more younger people testing positive who have a lower hospitalization and death rate as an age demopgraphic.

This recent spike in cases really started in the middle of June, and using that same website you cited they say it's about a 21 day delay from incubation to when the death stat is reported - it takes an average of two weeks to kill someone and 7 days to report the death. So the death count may begin spiking here shortly, unfortunately, but overall the rate is going to continue to be much lower.

Overall things are looking more positive now than in April/May, but we are nowhere close to being out of the woods.
Last edited by CelticCat on Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:47 am, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: Covid hits MSU athletes

Post by MSU01 » Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:47 am

Marana CAT wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:38 am
With all the covid doom and gloom in news, maybe people should look into the actual data (vs. media hysteria).

This is where we stand in Montana: On 15 April we were testing 136 people per day, we had completed 9,234 tests, 7 total deaths, 24 people in the hospital, and 399 total cases. By June 27th we were testing 1,227 people per day, an 802% increase in testing. 82,474 tests had been completed, 22 deaths, 11 hospitalizations, and 863 total cases.

What does this tell us.

On 15 Apr: Of all people tested (9234), only 4.3% (399) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 95.7% didnt have covid, just common flu.

On 27 June: Of all people tested (82,464), only 1.04% (863) of people presenting flu symptoms had covid. 98.96% didnt have covid, just common flu. So over the last 2.5 months the percent of people with flu symptoms who tested positive for covid-19 in Montana has dropped by 75%.

Lets look at hospitalizations: 15 April: 24 hospitalized of 202 active cases, or 11.9%. 27 Jun: 11 hospitalized of 237 active cases, or 4.64%, a 61% decrease. (95%+ of people with covid will not require admissible Medical Care)

In summary: We went from testing 136 people a day in Montana (9,234 tests on April 15th), to 1,227 tests per day (and 82,474 total tests). Active cases have only gone from 202 on 15 April to 237 on 27 June. 22 total covid deaths in a population of 1,062,000 Montanans or .002% (99.998% chance of non exposure or survival to exposure as of 27 Jun).

Lets look at things on the national level: 15 April: 2,680 covid deaths per day. 138,095 daily tests conducted.
29 Jun: 332 covid deaths per day. 569,394 daily tests conducted

This yields a 87.6% decrease in the daily death rate from covid, ON A NATIONAL LEVEL. How come we are not celebrating this? Basically, the data tells me that the news outlets are simply reporting the total number of cases and the daily increases in cases. They are not reporting that hospitalization rates have plummeted, death rates have plummeted, survival rates have skyrocketed, and they have focused entirely on "cases". Obviously, more cases are a result of massive increase in testing.

Testing 15 April: 3,287,635 total tests.
Testing 29 June: 31,557,407 total tests.

Big numbers sell more adds than decreasing death rates. Not to diminish the impact of covid-19 or its seriousness, but accurate reporting would be nice. Even with opening the state, at least here in Montana things seem to be on a positive trajectory. Keep the faith and wash your hands.

National Data: www.covidtracking.com

Montana Data: montana.maps.arcgis.com
Good post - even with the recent increases in cases Montana's test positivity rate was around 2% in today's data - far lower than in many other areas of the country. One minor correction I'd bring up though is that you seem to be stating that everyone who has been tested in Montana was displaying symptoms, which is not the case. There are multiple testing sites in Montana that provide free testing, symptoms or no symptoms, for anyone who wants one. Out of an abundance of caution I got tested myself a few weeks ago before visiting high-risk family members in their 70s and 80s, even though I haven't had any symptoms.


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