Griz in the Playoffs

[Grizaddict]

If the griz win out, what quality wins will they have??

I know UNI is actually a good football team, but they are 3-5, and likely won't be above .500 at season's end.

St. Francis cannot be a quality win, right?

those are the only two possible candidates, and they fall short of a 'quality win' IMO

I see SUU finishing anywhere from 4-7 at worst to 6-5 at best, I can't see them as a quality win

I see UNC finishing 5-6, or 6-5, same thing there

Currently, the teams the griz have beat have a combined record of 14-28, while the teams they've lost to are 17-7

Despite NO QUALITY WINS, if the griz win out they will still make the playoffs. WHY? - because they beat NDSU a year and a half ago, they get 20K seats filled, and they provide good TV exposure for the FCS, they have the brand.

Of all the Big Sky teams that could finish at 7-4, I think there are teams ahead of UM for an at-large birth:
NAU, Cal Poly, and SUU,
NAU because that would mean they beat UM, UND, WSU and SUU and quality losses Arizona State and WIU
SUU because that would mean they beat BYU and NAU (will NOT happen)
Cal Poly because they beat UM head-to-head, but even with that if they finish 7-4 that would mean late season 1-2 breakdown, but entirely possible if they falter against EWU and WSU/UNC - I think they lose at least one of those 3, all close teams

Weber SHOULD be considered above UM if they're both 7-4, but they won't. They'd have better 'quality losses' (Utah State and South Dakota 2OT) and would've beat at least one team UM lost to.

I think it'll be EWU, UND, and Cal Poly this year. I'd be surprised to see 4 Big Sky teams in, but it's possible. I see Big Sky bubble teams as NAU or WSU, and UM, but UNC can play spoiler for UM, and UNC makes it in if they can beat UND, UM, and Cal Poly in their last 3 games (they'd deserve to get in if they win out).

Bobcats can play spoiler this year

Again, quality wins is only one small component of the overall body of work. UNI was #3 in the nation and Griz beat them on the road. That will be considered a quality win regardless of what UNI has done lately. They barely just lost to NDSU and are still a good team. SFU is actually 6-3 and 4-0 in their conference and will more than likely be a playoff team. I could see that being a quality win (a win over a playoff team). You mentioned NAU possibly being a bubble team. Don't forget the best they can finish is 7--4 with only 6 D1 wins as they played a D2 team. If their SOS was legit, they could still be considered. But it is not close to strong enough.

Here is a quick look at sagarin ratings (not the best source but all we have) to give you a feel for Big Sky ratings. It won't be terribly far off from how the committee utilizes their simple rating system. It was posted on Egriz. This changes weekly but as of right now here is where we are at:

Overall ...Team....SOS Rank

77......EWU.......125
105....UM..........153
131....NAU.........139
134....CP...........150
139....UND........179
157....SUU........167
166....Weber......165
182....PSU.........149
184....NoCo.......163
189....MSU........161
190....UC Davis...119
213....ISU..........140
220....Sac St......160

For National comparison:

56.....NDSU.....98
83.....UNI.......109
86.....JSU.......166
93.....SDSU......120
95.....YSU.......138

[iaafan]

As it sits with both teams at 8-3 or 7-4, WSU has a better common opponent record, better league record, better strength of schedule, same quality opponent record, same overall record, and they didn't play each other so no edge on head-to-head. That's three edges to WSU, no edges to UM and three even. That tells me their SRS system is probably going to favor WSU. There are no categories that UM has an edge.

If they start splitting hairs, which they shouldn't based on the above, at 8-3 WSU will be 7-1 in the league and UM will be 5-3. At 7-4, WSU will be 6-2 and UM 4-4. That's really going to stick out at the committee if they start splitting hairs. Really hard to explain how you gave a team a playoff berth over another team when it was two games behind them in an 8-game league schedule and lost to one or two common opponents that the other team beat and was 3-4 spots ahead of them in the standings.

[JDoub]

As it sits with both teams at 8-3 or 7-4, WSU has a better common opponent record, better league record, better strength of schedule, same quality opponent record, same overall record, and they didn't play each other so no edge on head-to-head. That's three edges to WSU, no edges to UM and three even. That tells me their SRS system is probably going to favor WSU. There are no categories that UM has an edge.

If they start splitting hairs, which they shouldn't based on the above, at 8-3 WSU will be 7-1 in the league and UM will be 5-3. At 7-4, WSU will be 6-2 and UM 4-4. That's really going to stick out at the committee if they start splitting hairs. Really hard to explain how you gave a team a playoff berth over another team when it was two games behind them in an 8-game league schedule and lost to one or two common opponents that the other team beat and was 3-4 spots ahead of them in the standings.

that's why I said they SHOULD be considered before UM with the same record, and the fact one of their losses was to an FBS team.

But UM actually does have an edge -- $ they bid to host playoff games, national recognition, tradition.

remember, it's a rigged system! I'd be shocked to see the committee pick WSU above UM with the same record, especially if it's 8-3. An 8-3 griz team means a TV game with good looks for the FCS, which has real value in the committee's eyes. we're talking about at-large picks, not seeds. for seeds, it seems the committee is more pure to the formula, but when they get down to last ones in, IMO, other factors seem to play (region, conference, home game bid $, TV market, tradition, etc)

[jdevries]

Solid discussion here all around... Thx.

Bobcat For Life

[iaafan]

Do you have some examples of them taking less deserving teams before? I just don't recall that happening, so I'm skeptical about this "rigged system" of which you speak.

[Grizaddict]

As it sits with both teams at 8-3 or 7-4, WSU has a better common opponent record, better league record, better strength of schedule, same quality opponent record, same overall record, and they didn't play each other so no edge on head-to-head. That's three edges to WSU, no edges to UM and three even. That tells me their SRS system is probably going to favor WSU. There are no categories that UM has an edge.

If they start splitting hairs, which they shouldn't based on the above, at 8-3 WSU will be 7-1 in the league and UM will be 5-3. At 7-4, WSU will be 6-2 and UM 4-4. That's really going to stick out at the committee if they start splitting hairs. Really hard to explain how you gave a team a playoff berth over another team when it was two games behind them in an 8-game league schedule and lost to one or two common opponents that the other team beat and was 3-4 spots ahead of them in the standings.

Man oh man, you're having a hard time with this. You really really really want to make this about conference records and conference standings. How many times have I said already that has NOTHING to do with at large bids. You can throw out your entire bottom paragraph above because of this fact. And I already stated the Griz aren't getting in at 7-4 so again a moot point.

As for your top paragraph:

you said Weber has a better common opponent record....you are correct there. If they win out to get to 8-3 that means they will have beat NAU and Cal Poly (2 teams the Griz lost to). But so what, they only looks at that when determining an auto bid for playoffs so that's a moot point.

You said they will have a better league record....also correct, but so what league records have nothing to do with at large bids. Again we have 13 teams and not everyone plays each other so they put no emphasis on this. It's overall record and body of work.

You said Weber has a better strength of schedule....as of now not true. Sagarin lists the Griz with a better SOS. Committee has points for quality road wins and different point for losses on road. In other words, you suffer more when you lose at home and suffer less when you lose on the road, especially if you're the underdog. Keep in mind the Griz losses have all been on the road, one to a top 3 team (EWU) and one to a top 15 team (CP). Their only ugly loss where they were favored was NAU. All of these types of thing get factored into SRS. It's much more complex than any of us probably realize.

[iaafan]

No need to get personal about it. If you want to do that, then take your ball and go home to egriz. I'm not having a hard time with it at all. I'm fine with your theory that they "don't look at league records," but human nature doesn't work that way. When it comes down to taking just four teams from the BSC and they're having a difficult time determining who to take, they'll start looking at league records because they know if they take the team with the lessor league record the one with the higher league record is going to freak out.

But never mind that: Weber plays NAU, Poly and ISU. UM plays ISU, UNC and MSU. ISUs cancel each other out. Poly is better than UNC and NAU is better than MSU. I highly, highly doubt that UM will be ahead of WSU in SOS after that.

[Grizaddict]

No need to get personal about it. If you want to do that, then take your ball and go home to egriz. I'm not having a hard time with it at all. I'm fine with your theory that they "don't look at league records," but human nature doesn't work that way. When it comes down to taking just four teams from the BSC and they're having a difficult time determining who to take, they'll start looking at league records because they know if they take the team with the lessor league record the one with the higher league record is going to freak out.

But never mind that: Weber plays NAU, Poly and ISU. UM plays ISU, UNC and MSU. ISUs cancel each other out. Poly is better than UNC and NAU is better than MSU. I highly, highly doubt that UM will be ahead of WSU in SOS after that.

Sorry didn't mean to get personal at all. I just seriously thought you were struggling to pick up on the concept of conference records vs overall body of work. My bad. Sounds like you get it. I actually think this has been a good discussion and gives some insight into what the committees have to take into account. Not an easy job by any means. We will all know soon enough how it shakes out. Griz need to win 3 in a row (vs ISU, noco, and MSU) and I'd say Weber does too (vs NAU, CP, and ISU) for either to have a shot at all IMO

[Grizaddict]

No need to get personal about it. If you want to do that, then take your ball and go home to egriz. I'm not having a hard time with it at all. I'm fine with your theory that they "don't look at league records," but human nature doesn't work that way. When it comes down to taking just four teams from the BSC and they're having a difficult time determining who to take, they'll start looking at league records because they know if they take the team with the lessor league record the one with the higher league record is going to freak out.

But never mind that: Weber plays NAU, Poly and ISU. UM plays ISU, UNC and MSU. ISUs cancel each other out. Poly is better than UNC and NAU is better than MSU. I highly, highly doubt that UM will be ahead of WSU in SOS after that.

Sorry didn't mean to get personal at all. I just seriously thought you were struggling to pick up on the concept of conference records vs overall body of work. My bad. Sounds like you get it. I actually think this has been a good discussion and gives some insight into what the committees have to take into account. Not an easy job by any means. We will all know soon enough how it shakes out. Griz need to win 3 in a row (vs ISU, noco, and MSU) and I'd say Weber does too (vs NAU, CP, and ISU) for either to have a shot at all IMO

Other issue at play that I meant to mention is national rankings. Griz are ranked 19 right now. If they win 3 in a row it's reasonable to see them in the top 15-16 at regular season end. Weber is not in top 25. If they win 3 in a row, one of those wins will be a top 15 ranked Cal Poly so maybe they crack the top 25. But they'd probably be 24-25 if so. Is the committee going to put in an 8-3 Weber ranked 24-25 over a 15-16 ranked Griz at 8-3. I'd say no way. In fact, at that point I'd say the Griz are in for sure and that they and Weber aren't even battling for a spot. Instead Weber would be battling another "bubble burst" or "first out" team.

[onceacat]

Do you have some examples of them taking less deserving teams before? I just don't recall that happening, so I'm skeptical about this "rigged system" of which you speak.

It pains me to say it, in 2014, MSU started the season ranked #18, then proceeded to go 8-4 against a really weak schedule. Only 2 wins were against teams with a winning record (Sac & ISU were 7-5 and 8-4; no wins against the playoff field...and a soul crushing loss in Missoula. And hosted a home playoff game against SDSU.

There are probably others, but that one hits pretty close to home.

[Blackfoot Griz]

Seems like the one intangible is that the Griz need to win the next 3 to even have a shot at the post season. The Cats could salvage a disappointing season with a win on the last one. None of the remaining games are a given.

[TomCat88]

If there are five 8-3 or better teams from the BSC and they all have 8 or more DI wins, then all 8 will probably get in. Looking at the other power conferences there aren't many 7-DI-win teams let alone 8-DI-win teams.

If WSU and UM are both 7-4, they could still both get in. However if it comes down to one of them getting the last at-large bid it will most likely be WSU. Two things will probably be even (quality wins and 7 DI wins), but WSU will have the lead in strength of schedule at the end of the season. WSU will also lead quality wins if it beats Cal Poly, which it plays in Ogden.

[91catAlum]

.

[AlphaGriz1]

UM will get in at 8-3 or 7-4 its what we do.

We should be allowed in at 8-3 because we suck and are not a very good team. This is the worst team we have had since the mid to late 80s. Putting them in the playoffs is a crime and shouldn't happen. We are horrible and I will think less of the playoff committee if they sell out for money instead of a good on the field product.

[grizgirl]

UM will get in at 8-3 or 7-4 its what we do.

We should be allowed in at 8-3 because we suck and are not a very good team. This is the worst team we have had since the mid to late 80s. Putting them in the playoffs is a crime and shouldn't happen. We are horrible and I will think less of the playoff committee if they sell out for money instead of a good on the field product.

Oh c'mon. You don't really think we're that bad. What is it exactly that makes you say this?

[JDoub]

Do you have some examples of them taking less deserving teams before? I just don't recall that happening, so I'm skeptical about this "rigged system" of which you speak.

The Great West had some really good teams that did not get in, no auto-bid hurt them.

2004 Cal Poly at 9-2, snubbed, the next year they did get in at 8-3 and beat Montana 35-21 in Missoula

2006 and 2007 NDSU was 10-1 but NCAA imposed 4 year wait for playoff eligibility, or they might've had a couple more NCs

2010 Jacksonville at 10-1 snubbed, beat Old Dominion who was 8-3. There were seven 4-loss teams in the playoffs.

Jim Harbaugh coached San Diego to an 11-1 record in 2006, snubbed, while a bunch of 4 loss teams got at-large berths.



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[iaafan]

[quote="onceacat"][quote="iaafan"]Do you have some examples of them taking less deserving teams before? I just don't recall that happening, so I'm skeptical about this "rigged system" of which you speak.[/quote]

It pains me to say it, in 2014, MSU started the season ranked #18, then proceeded to go 8-4 against a really weak schedule. Only 2 wins were against teams with a winning record (Sac & ISU were 7-5 and 8-4; no wins against the playoff field...and a soul crushing loss in Missoula. And hosted a home playoff game against SDSU.

There are probably others, but that one hits pretty close to home.[/quote]


So who did MSU go in ahead of that should've gotten in over MSU?

[iaafan]

[quote="JDoub"][quote="iaafan"]Do you have some examples of them taking less deserving teams before? I just don't recall that happening, so I'm skeptical about this "rigged system" of which you speak.[/quote]

The Great West had some really good teams that did not get in, no auto-bid hurt them.

2004 Cal Poly at 9-2, snubbed, the next year they did get in at 8-3 and beat Montana 35-21 in Missoula

2006 and 2007 NDSU was 10-1 but NCAA imposed 4 year wait for playoff eligibility, or they might've had a couple more NCs

2010 Jacksonville at 10-1 snubbed, beat Old Dominion who was 8-3. There were seven 4-loss teams in the playoffs.

Jim Harbaugh coached San Diego to an 11-1 record in 2006, snubbed, while a bunch of 4 loss teams got at-large berths.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/quote]


Out of five possibilities, you list one that is a good example. Poly. NDSU is a poor example since, as you said, neither team was eligible. San Diego and Jacksonville of the Pioneer League are also poor examples, since the Pioneer League is possibly the worst conference in the FCS with no scholarships and has never been given an at-large bid that I know of. Have PL teams even come close to winning a playoff games since getting an autobid?

So, it's very rare that a team less deserving gets in over a team more deserving. Between you and onceacat you have one example. Very rare.

[JDoub]

Do you have some examples of them taking less deserving teams before? I just don't recall that happening, so I'm skeptical about this "rigged system" of which you speak.

The Great West had some really good teams that did not get in, no auto-bid hurt them.

2004 Cal Poly at 9-2, snubbed, the next year they did get in at 8-3 and beat Montana 35-21 in Missoula

2006 and 2007 NDSU was 10-1 but NCAA imposed 4 year wait for playoff eligibility, or they might've had a couple more NCs

2010 Jacksonville at 10-1 snubbed, beat Old Dominion who was 8-3. There were seven 4-loss teams in the playoffs.

Jim Harbaugh coached San Diego to an 11-1 record in 2006, snubbed, while a bunch of 4 loss teams got at-large berths.
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Out of five possibilities, you list one that is a good example. Poly. NDSU is a poor example since, as you said, neither team was eligible. San Diego and Jacksonville of the Pioneer League are also poor examples, since the Pioneer League is possibly the worst conference in the FCS with no scholarships and has never been given an at-large bid that I know of. Have PL teams even come close to winning a playoff games since getting an autobid?

So, it's very rare that a team less deserving gets in over a team more deserving. Between you and onceacat you have one example. Very rare.

That was just top of my head.

San Diego under Harbaugh was a better team than half the playoff field that year.

How many 3rd 4th 5th CAA / Big Sky teams have won playoff games?


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[JDoub]

You're proving my point that it's rigged, argument is the same that the SEC / P5 used for years. Took the state of Utah AG suing the NCAA for 'mid-majors' to have a chance to play the 'big boys' for those $10-20M paychecks.

All-time favorite football memories include Boise's wins over Oklahoma, Utah beating down Alabama to stay undefeated when everyone in North America said Utah does not belong, weak schedule, no 5 star guys, wouldn't be .500 in the SEC, etc etc

Same holds true for the FCS


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