2025 Griz Hail Mary

[OldGriz]

I’m not at all saying the Griz haven’t won ugly. They certainly have. I don’t pretend to be able to communicate with anyone who is intoxicated on data analytics and random computer algorithms (i.e., “Sagarin” and “Massey” converts). But I do see why the FCS coaches and FCS writers rank the Griz ahead of the Cats. Only in the world of computer games can you formulate a belief that the Cats are somehow prevailing through some remarkably brutal schedule and thereby proving themselves superior to the Griz. Cat-Griz game will settle it.

[iaafan]

I do see why the FCS coaches and FCS writers rank the Griz ahead of the Cats.

Okay, why? Let’s hear it.

[RickRund]

I do see why the FCS coaches and FCS writers rank the Griz ahead of the Cats.

Okay, why? Let’s hear it.

Or I do see why “the people who do the FCS coaches and FCS writers work” rank the gris ahead of the CATS.

[Prodigal Cat]

I do see why the FCS coaches and FCS writers rank the Griz ahead of the Cats.

Okay, why? Let’s hear it.

Um.. have you had to deal with griz fans in any capacity? Have you interacted with them on any level? Easier to just over rank them than deal with the fallout of putting them where they actually should be.

[iaafan]

SDSU > UND
NAU > ISU
ISU > Cal Poly
EWU > Indiana St.
San Diego = Idaho
Mercyhurst > CWU

Common opponent:
ISU - MSU 48-14; UM 42-38

Stats: MSU is outscoring FCS opponents by 26.1 ppg. UM 17.2
MSU is outgaining opponents by 188.5 ypg. UM
94.5

[D-Wreck]

Through week "7"

All Cats opponents: 25-21 54.3% winning percentage
gris: 18-20, 47.4%

If you exclude UO and CWU, Cats opponents are 20-20 (50%) and gris are 13-19 (40.6%)

Cats remaining opponents: 19-12
gris: 17-21

Based on this data, the Cats have played a harder schedule to date and appear to have the tougher schedule for the remainder of the season as well.

[BelligerentBobcat]

The Gris have an all time weak schedule. For Old Gris to pump up Central Washington as a legit opponent is hilarious. They would still be at the bottom end of the FCS.

Looking ahead for the Gris final 6 games, they get Sacred Heart from a very weak conference and play the 3 teams at the bottom of the Big Sky conference in EWU, Weber and PSU - all while getting 8 home games. Even their Idaho win looks weak. What a weak schedule.

The Cats scheduled cream puffs at home. San Diego and Mercyhurst are worse than Central Washington. South Dakota State is no cream puff, but they almost lost to Youngstown and ended up escaping with a 5-point win. The FCS coaches and FCS writers see it differently than you do. That’s why the Griz are ranked above the Cats.

I’m curious old man, what happened when San Diego played Central Washington last year?

[Rich K]

This Saturday’s gris game against Sacred Heart will be a hell of a lot closer than the pundits suggest. I think the Pioneers are the best of the ooc patsies that the gris payed to beat. Gris overrated and SHU underrated gris come from behind 32-28 Gris and the word from Missoula is the Pioneers will rule the CAA when they join them next year. Close win will be enough for the gris to stay at their current poll position of course.

Well depending on how confident you are in all that, you should put a big chunk of change down on SH to cover the spread. The Griz are favored by 30.5 points last I checked. I see what you're saying, and when watching the Griz play against ISU and then CP at home, I kept thinking..... when are the Griz going to do something and start looking like a good football team? Of course if I put a bunch of money down on that game to be closer than a 30 point blowout, that's Exactly the game where the Griz put it all together and everything falls their way and they do blow them out.

I'm not confident enough to actually put a lot of money on it, but I like the idea of a team moving from the NEC to the CAA having nothing to lose in a game that will have some eyeballs on it. I watched SHU (the announcers were saying it as "shoe") beat up on Howard from the MEAC in a game in which the Pioneers dominated the second half led by running back Mitchell Summers who ran for 243 yards. They have Summers listed at 5'7" but he looked more like about 5'3". He was a quick through tight holes and Howard was never able to bottle him up. I'm interested in seeing what he can do against the gris. No way he gets 243 again but he won't be shut down totally. I'll think about placing a small wager.

[HookedOnGriz]

The Gris have an all time weak schedule. For Old Gris to pump up Central Washington as a legit opponent is hilarious. They would still be at the bottom end of the FCS.

Looking ahead for the Gris final 6 games, they get Sacred Heart from a very weak conference and play the 3 teams at the bottom of the Big Sky conference in EWU, Weber and PSU - all while getting 8 home games. Even their Idaho win looks weak. What a weak schedule.

The Cats scheduled cream puffs at home. San Diego and Mercyhurst are worse than Central Washington. South Dakota State is no cream puff, but they almost lost to Youngstown and ended up escaping with a 5-point win. The FCS coaches and FCS writers see it differently than you do. That’s why the Griz are ranked above the Cats.

I’m curious old man, what happened when San Diego played Central Washington last year?

You are usually smarter than this. That’s an apples to oranges comparison. Are you saying a team can’t get way better or way worse from one year to the next? Very very very weak argument you’re making here with this awful example.

There are plenty here saying the Griz have played a cream puff schedule so far, yet they have two ranked wins. The cats (outside of Oregon) have lost to a ranked opponent at home and soundly beat a ranked opponent NAU on the road. Much like Idaho, the NAU win isn’t looking so great now either. Other than that, you’ve played some of the worst ranked teams in all of FCS in Mercyhurst and San Diego. EWU looks pretty damn bad too.

In the end, the Cats will have a stronger strength of schedule. But as of right now, the Cats and Griz schedules are pretty similar outside of Oregon. That game is literally the only reason your SOS is at 2 right now. Every FCS team who has played a FBS team has a high SOS due to the inflated weighting given for a FBS game.

The Griz should win out, could run into a loss on the road to Sac St. Cats should win out but could struggle with UC Davis.

Think it’s gonna come down to all the marbles in Missoula. Should be fun.

[HookedOnGriz]

Through week "7"

All Cats opponents: 25-21 54.3% winning percentage
gris: 18-20, 47.4%

If you exclude UO and CWU, Cats opponents are 20-20 (50%) and gris are 13-19 (40.6%)

Cats remaining opponents: 19-12
gris: 17-21

Based on this data, the Cats have played a harder schedule to date and appear to have the tougher schedule for the remainder of the season as well.

Sam Herder has Griz past opponents record at 18-14 and Cats at 23-16. Although his methodology may be different.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... umes-bzbz/

[BelligerentBobcat]

The Gris have an all time weak schedule. For Old Gris to pump up Central Washington as a legit opponent is hilarious. They would still be at the bottom end of the FCS.

Looking ahead for the Gris final 6 games, they get Sacred Heart from a very weak conference and play the 3 teams at the bottom of the Big Sky conference in EWU, Weber and PSU - all while getting 8 home games. Even their Idaho win looks weak. What a weak schedule.

The Cats scheduled cream puffs at home. San Diego and Mercyhurst are worse than Central Washington. South Dakota State is no cream puff, but they almost lost to Youngstown and ended up escaping with a 5-point win. The FCS coaches and FCS writers see it differently than you do. That’s why the Griz are ranked above the Cats.

I’m curious old man, what happened when San Diego played Central Washington last year?

You are usually smarter than this. That’s an apples to oranges comparison. Are you saying a team can’t get way better or way worse from one year to the next? Very very very weak argument you’re making here with this awful example.

There are plenty here saying the Griz have played a cream puff schedule so far, yet they have two ranked wins. The cats (outside of Oregon) have lost to a ranked opponent at home and soundly beat a ranked opponent NAU on the road. Much like Idaho, the NAU win isn’t looking so great now either. Other than that, you’ve played some of the worst ranked teams in all of FCS in Mercyhurst and San Diego. EWU looks pretty damn bad too.

In the end, the Cats will have a stronger strength of schedule. But as of right now, the Cats and Griz schedules are pretty similar outside of Oregon. That game is literally the only reason your SOS is at 2 right now. Every FCS team who has played a FBS team has a high SOS due to the inflated weighting given for a FBS game.

The Griz should win out, could run into a loss on the road to Sac St. Cats should win out but could struggle with UC Davis.

Think it’s gonna come down to all the marbles in Missoula. Should be fun.

The point I’m making is that we don’t have any evidence that CW is better than San Diego, in fact, within the last year San Diego whipped them. Would that happen this year? Don’t know. But, they’d probably win.

You have one good win. You have played a pretty mediocre schedule. Your QB has almost thrown as many interceptions as TD’s. NAU looks considerably better than Idaho, and in our only comparable game so far, MSU beat ISU by 30 more points than UM. Good thing for the vaunted grizzlies hangover.

[TomCat88]

Griz get a big boost in the opponents' W/L record department with Sacred Heart coming in at 5-2.

[HookedOnGriz]

The Gris have an all time weak schedule. For Old Gris to pump up Central Washington as a legit opponent is hilarious. They would still be at the bottom end of the FCS.

Looking ahead for the Gris final 6 games, they get Sacred Heart from a very weak conference and play the 3 teams at the bottom of the Big Sky conference in EWU, Weber and PSU - all while getting 8 home games. Even their Idaho win looks weak. What a weak schedule.

The Cats scheduled cream puffs at home. San Diego and Mercyhurst are worse than Central Washington. South Dakota State is no cream puff, but they almost lost to Youngstown and ended up escaping with a 5-point win. The FCS coaches and FCS writers see it differently than you do. That’s why the Griz are ranked above the Cats.

I’m curious old man, what happened when San Diego played Central Washington last year?

You are usually smarter than this. That’s an apples to oranges comparison. Are you saying a team can’t get way better or way worse from one year to the next? Very very very weak argument you’re making here with this awful example.

There are plenty here saying the Griz have played a cream puff schedule so far, yet they have two ranked wins. The cats (outside of Oregon) have lost to a ranked opponent at home and soundly beat a ranked opponent NAU on the road. Much like Idaho, the NAU win isn’t looking so great now either. Other than that, you’ve played some of the worst ranked teams in all of FCS in Mercyhurst and San Diego. EWU looks pretty damn bad too.

In the end, the Cats will have a stronger strength of schedule. But as of right now, the Cats and Griz schedules are pretty similar outside of Oregon. That game is literally the only reason your SOS is at 2 right now. Every FCS team who has played a FBS team has a high SOS due to the inflated weighting given for a FBS game.

The Griz should win out, could run into a loss on the road to Sac St. Cats should win out but could struggle with UC Davis.

Think it’s gonna come down to all the marbles in Missoula. Should be fun.

The point I’m making is that we don’t have any evidence that CW is better than San Diego, in fact, within the last year San Diego whipped them. Would that happen this year? Don’t know. But, they’d probably win.

You have one good win. You have played a pretty mediocre schedule. Your QB has almost thrown as many interceptions as TD’s. NAU looks considerably better than Idaho, and in our only comparable game so far, MSU beat ISU by 30 more points than UM. Good thing for the vaunted grizzlies hangover.

I hear what you are saying. My entire point is, take away Oregon, and both Cats and Griz have played pretty mediocre schedules. And two of the ranked wins (NAU for you and Idaho for Griz) are looking a little worse recently with a bad Idaho loss to UNC and UC Davis destroying NAU last weekend.

I took a look at Sagarin Rankings for all the FCS teams both have played and it says the Griz have actually had a tougher schedule (although they are pretty much neck and neck as of now like I was saying).

Here is a FCS breakdown:

CATS

SDSU 53
NAU 150
Idaho St 179
EWU 187
Mercyhurst 206
San Diego 215
990/6 =165 avg SOS Rank
1 ranked win/1 ranked loss

GRIZ

North Dakota 84
Idaho 146
Cal poly 176
Idaho st 179
Indy St 218
803/5 =160.6 avg SOS Rank
2 ranked wins/0 ranked losses

Only comprehensive ranking covering every single football team that exists is from Bill Connelly. He has Central Wash at 238, ahead of both Mercyhurst and San Diego. Probably not perfect science but the only thing out there.

So as of today, both Cats and Griz have very similar FCS schedules. Cats SOS will climb a little with facing UC Davis and Griz. Griz will climb with Sac (maybe) and Cats.

[D-Wreck]

Through week "7"

All Cats opponents: 25-21 54.3% winning percentage
gris: 18-20, 47.4%

If you exclude UO and CWU, Cats opponents are 20-20 (50%) and gris are 13-19 (40.6%)

Cats remaining opponents: 19-12
gris: 17-21

Based on this data, the Cats have played a harder schedule to date and appear to have the tougher schedule for the remainder of the season as well.

Sam Herder has Griz past opponents record at 18-14 and Cats at 23-16. Although his methodology may be different.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... umes-bzbz/

I just grabbed win/loss records from ESPN. Entirely possible I missed something, but his asterisks around other make me

CWU - 1
UND - 2
In. St - 4
ID - 4
ISU - 5
CP - 4

Had to take off my socks, but I'm 99.9% that totals 20.

[OldGriz]

The Gris have an all time weak schedule. For Old Gris to pump up Central Washington as a legit opponent is hilarious. They would still be at the bottom end of the FCS.

Looking ahead for the Gris final 6 games, they get Sacred Heart from a very weak conference and play the 3 teams at the bottom of the Big Sky conference in EWU, Weber and PSU - all while getting 8 home games. Even their Idaho win looks weak. What a weak schedule.

The Cats scheduled cream puffs at home. San Diego and Mercyhurst are worse than Central Washington. South Dakota State is no cream puff, but they almost lost to Youngstown and ended up escaping with a 5-point win. The FCS coaches and FCS writers see it differently than you do. That’s why the Griz are ranked above the Cats.

I’m curious old man, what happened when San Diego played Central Washington last year?

Last year?

[BelligerentBobcat]

The Gris have an all time weak schedule. For Old Gris to pump up Central Washington as a legit opponent is hilarious. They would still be at the bottom end of the FCS.

Looking ahead for the Gris final 6 games, they get Sacred Heart from a very weak conference and play the 3 teams at the bottom of the Big Sky conference in EWU, Weber and PSU - all while getting 8 home games. Even their Idaho win looks weak. What a weak schedule.

The Cats scheduled cream puffs at home. San Diego and Mercyhurst are worse than Central Washington. South Dakota State is no cream puff, but they almost lost to Youngstown and ended up escaping with a 5-point win. The FCS coaches and FCS writers see it differently than you do. That’s why the Griz are ranked above the Cats.

I’m curious old man, what happened when San Diego played Central Washington last year?

Last year?

You’re right. Way too much time to think that means anything.

[OldGriz]

The Gris have an all time weak schedule. For Old Gris to pump up Central Washington as a legit opponent is hilarious. They would still be at the bottom end of the FCS.

Looking ahead for the Gris final 6 games, they get Sacred Heart from a very weak conference and play the 3 teams at the bottom of the Big Sky conference in EWU, Weber and PSU - all while getting 8 home games. Even their Idaho win looks weak. What a weak schedule.

The Cats scheduled cream puffs at home. San Diego and Mercyhurst are worse than Central Washington. South Dakota State is no cream puff, but they almost lost to Youngstown and ended up escaping with a 5-point win. The FCS coaches and FCS writers see it differently than you do. That’s why the Griz are ranked above the Cats.

I’m curious old man, what happened when San Diego played Central Washington last year?

Last year?

You’re right. Way too much time to think that means anything.

Now you understand. How did the Cats play the Griz last year? How did the Cats play the Griz the year before that? And the year before that? A season ago is ancient history, especially in the age of the portal.