crazycat wrote:crazycat wrote:
I'm looking for (haven't found) that thread by the guy in Billings that used some market models to forecast the BSC this year. Wondering if he had us losing to CSC or what his prediction for the early was? Yes, I'm grasping for anything still.
Here's what he said. So we're fine as long as we get things going 'this' Saturday. Someone send this to the players, so they can relax and get down to business.
OK - I can't even guess how many stocks I've charted but here's my 2 cents: This guy is fascinating and the following analysis assumes his charts are correct.
ISU: It appears to me that ISU is finding a bottom in their program. Maybe this year or next, and then they will realize a good bounce off the bottom. I disagree that they are in for a serious slide, because they can't really go much lower. ISU is a long-term buy! I think they bounce off the bottom and rally to 30 on the chart over the next several years.
UNC: The trend is clearly up, but this is their first year in I-AA. They could slide a bit this year and next, but until the upward trend has broken, the trend is up, overall. Don't try to catch a falling knife, but if they have some serious trouble in the next couple of years, you could buy them at a very cheap price. After the slide, depending on how investment into the program goes, the long term upward trend could continue, or they could be in for a serious slide.
EWU: They are having trouble breaking out to new highs. If they break out - then buy them bigtime above 45. I think they'll have a short-term down-trend for a season. If they can't break out, then they will trend downward to the short term upward trend (maybe about 30).
WSU/SAC: Avoid these programs at all costs. SAC will probably fall until they move to I-A, and they can try their luck at that level. But, they could really change their mojo by moving up to I-A. I think WSU continues to slide until WSU cancels the FB program altogether. They can't compete at I-A so moving up is out of the question. I suppose they could go Div II or NAIA eventually. Any rallies by these programs will be short-lived most likely. The old blind squirrel scenario.
NAU: Flat trend between -50 and -10 means they could bounce along in that channel forever, which they have done for(almost)ever. Sell at the top, buy at the bottom until they break out in either direction. Buy or sell the appropriate break-out afterwards.
UM: This program could be in for a major long-term correction. This might coincide with the time when other I-AA programs upgrade their facilities. This program has built up so much positive sentiment that when the slide does come, nobody will believe it until it's too late (see Nasdaq market in March 2000). UM could slide for a few years and then rally again. If they rally above 0, then buy them. Otherwise, sell them into the long-term bear. A rally above 0 could coincide with a time when the program moves up to I-A, and more investment into the program is made.
PSU: Trend is up. Buy any dips until they reach 0. At that point, the program will face a major downward trend unless they make new investments into the program. This chart is very similar to UM.
AND NOW, FOR YOUR ENJOYMENT:
MSU: Almost identical to ISU. MSU is trying to find it's bottom. And boy, if it's not at the bottom, in terms of the program's success and sentiment, it's dang close. This program could easily rally back to -30 over the next few years, and then at that point, the program will have to make a new investment into the program (could coincide with a UM move to I-A). If the program stays at I-AA, the slide down should not be as far down as the program is now, and then it will rally again. Either way, the program is poised for a long-term upward trend. If I were a long term investor, I would begin buying MSU in little chunks. Little chunks, because you could end up buying more at a lower value, but the bottom is getting close, if not already found.
Strictly in terms of sentiment. MSU, ISU and PSU have very negative sentiment. UM and EWU have very positive sentiment. Typically, sentimental extremes coincide with major reversals in whatever sentimental trend there is/was.
How's that campers?
Montana State IS what "they" think Montana is.
