What Are The Chances

[catscat]

That UC Davis makes it to the chipper now that NDSU is out?

I'm leaving our team to handle the one game at a time, but I think this possibility is interesting. The QF game is at Davis which is in their favor. Have no clue as to how they stack up against Illinois State, Vanderbilt, or Tarleton. Maybe one of you experts can enlighten me.

[MSU01]

UC Davis wouldn't stack up very well against Vanderbilt but they should be fine against Villanova!

I'd give Davis a 70% chance of winning against Illinois State this week and then a 40% chance of winning at Tarleton in the semis, so I'll estimate (0.70)(0.40) = 0.28 or a 28% chance of them making it to Nashville. If Nova beats Tarleton and Davis gets to play the semifinal game at home, up that to around a 50% chance to get there.

[technoCat]

Well I definitely don't they stack up favorably with Vanderbilt...

They definitely had the door open for them. If they can stay focused they can beat anybody on that side of the bracket. See if ISU can stay focused after their huge win.

[catscat]

Well I definitely don't they stack up favorably with Vanderbilt...

I guess probably not. My mistake - Vanderbilt isn't on their side of the bracket.

Guess I just have Vanderbilt on my mind for some reason.

[94VegasCat]

I thought UCD had a punchers chance against the fuzzy cows. Now we’ll see how they do against a more even opponent.

[ClowderUp]

My money is on Vanderbilt to roll. I liked Diego Pavia at NM State and I really like this SEC version on him.

[grizzh8r]

Well I definitely don't they stack up favorably with Vanderbilt...

I guess probably not. My mistake - Vanderbilt isn't on their side of the bracket.

Guess I just have Vanderbilt on my mind for some reason.

Well the FCS national championship game is being played in Vanderbilt's home stadium, so perhaps it was just a subliminal mental thing?

[catatac]

Well if they do make it, they'll get destroyed by a team from Montana.

[lutecat]

Vandy got left out of the FBS playoffs. Such a travesty.

[Colter_Nuanez]

For what it's worth, Davis is only a 1-point favorite at home over Illinois State after the Redbirds beat North Dakota State.

Last year, Davis was the 5-seed and Illinois State was the 12-seed. They played in the second round. Davis won 42-10.

[kwcat]

Davis wins

[MSU Doc]

Davis wins

The 'stache bowl. I think Davis wins, too.

[Bobcat Sig]

For what it's worth, Davis is only a 1-point favorite at home over Illinois State after the Redbirds beat North Dakota State.

Last year, Davis was the 5-seed and Illinois State was the 12-seed. They played in the second round. Davis won 42-10.

That's wild. I saw Davis at -2.5, so maybe the line moved? In any case, the Aggies are getting no respect.

[BelligerentBobcat]

Any team with Pinnick and Plough has a good chance.

[Prodigal Cat]

Any team with Pinnick and Plough has a good chance.

I agree but...

they beat NDSU by harassing Payton while keeping him contained. NDSU Oline was in trouble against that front and Davis O line isn't that much better. They also gave up 1 huge catch to Lance but after that shut him down entirely so I think they can take away Gbatu. Theres always could be the letdown after slaying their giant.

[BOBCATBORN]

Any team with Pinnick and Plough has a good chance.

I agree but...

they beat NDSU by harassing Payton while keeping him contained. NDSU Oline was in trouble against that front and Davis O line isn't that much better. They also gave up 1 huge catch to Lance but after that shut him down entirely so I think they can take away Gbatu. Theres always could be the letdown after slaying their giant.

It feels like Pinnick is a bit more elusive and faster than Peyton though? Might be more of a struggle to keep him contained... Maybe I'm off on Peytons speed too but he never seemed real elusive to me (at least not like Pinnick)

[ClowderUp]

I sure do want the Aggies to win. Nice to see the MVFC continue their faceplant. Also I'd like to say we beat two semifinalists the final two weeks of the regular season. Assuming gris win, which I think they will.

[91catAlum]

I don't think Illinois State is getting enough credit. Their defense completely shut down the bison. 14 of ndsu's 28 points were scored on defense and special teams. If ISU doesn't throw 5 picks in that game they probably win by 20, in the Fargo dome, over the undefeated #1 seed.

They're playing good football right now. If they force Pinnick into some mistakes, they'll win.