Big Sky Over/Unders

[Prodigal Cat]

Colter has been doing Big Sky win totals on his show and its been an interesting exercise. Most people make statements about team x and say they will be better, worse or they same as last year but most don't delve into the rosters, look at the schedule and then make predictions on the season. CN and Andrew Houghton have on the ESPN show and I've found it informative. Here's what they have done so far and I'll go through them highest to lowest, my take on it and prediction. The O/U numbers are what they decided, not mine.

UM 10.5
Honestly the only reason I think the ranking is so high is due to the way the season went last year. This isn't last year and for a decade and a half the Griz have really underperformed. This season they have significant questions at some of the most important spots on the field.

They do return talent on the O-line but as was apparent in the spring game and which Colter has spoken on, they lack a true center. This also highlights a dearth of depth for that position group which we all know is one place you need quality backups. An injury or two and things could get real ugly. I also think that having the mobile QB last season helps and not sure they have that this season like last.
They lost their best outside D-lineman to the portal and their best interior lineman to graduation who was the best player on defense in the Big Sky last year. I don't think they have another Gubner ready to slot in.
The QB is a huge unknown and they brought in a transfer. They always bring in a transfer but if Ah Yat was good to go why bring in the new guy? Everyone anointed the kid but he hasn't taken snaps in a meaningful situation.
The receiving corps will be the best in the conference, maybe the nation and the LB's will as always be very good.

The schedule is not difficult but they do travel to Grand Forks (a tough place to play we all know) and have to go to Bozeman, they avoid Idaho and Sac St. PredictionThe griz almost always drop a game they shouldn't (see NAU '23, Idaho '22 etc) so I predict 10-2. Still a high seed but I think they lose to UND or drop one somewhere else and MSU.
UNDER

MSU 9.5
So in this podcast Andrew brought up something I've been thinking more and more lately. Can a team that is unanimously getting top 5 votes be under the radar? I say yes. Sam Herder has been doing his team update podcasts and has yet to cover the Cats. Might not be a slight and just a scheduling thing but he seems to be doing all the top teams except the Cats?? The fans nation guys both Jamie and Kylor said they think MSU is headed for a down season this year in the end of the year podcast without really giving a reason why. Colter said he was golfing with media members and all 5 of the others in his group said under 9.5 wins. I think it's due to the way the season ended. Getting whipped in missoula and then one and done in the playoffs is coloring the expectations for the Cats this season. I don't really need to break down the team here for obvious reasons but suffice it to say I feel the only real losses from last season were Valdez and Chambers. I think our D line could be better as a whole this season due to the number of quality players and we get back to the hockey type of D-Line substitutions. The back up QB is an unknown.

The schedule is significantly easier this season than '23. Only 2 real tossup games on the road (UNM and Davis) and I think the Cats will be favored in every single game this season except for the FBS matchup and even then I'm not sure. Prediction12-0 is a real possibility but maybe they drop one or two. If they drop 3 it will be a severe disappointment.
OVER

UC Davis 8.5
Davis brings back the reigning league Offense MVP in Larison and probably the most experienced QB not named Tommy Mellott in Miles Hastings. They've had some of the best offensive line play in the Big Sky conference the last few years but they lost 2 all conference OL players last season. That said I don't think Hastings is a 'win you the game' type of player, solid but if you need him to put up numbers you're in trouble. Rex Conners and Zach Kennedy are absolute stud's on D and I think this is where they cause teams issues. Look for a lot of 21 to 17 type of wins for Davis.
the
The schedule is where this gets interesting. They open with Cal, most likely a loss but the rest of the non-conference is manageable. They go to PSU (a feisty matchup in my opinion) and to Cheney and host Idaho. The end of the season though is @UM, vs MSU, @Sac St... ouch. They need to steal one of those otherwise they could be getting evaluated by the committee coming off losing every game in November. Not a great situation for Davis the last few seasons. PredictionI'll pick them to win the Causeway classic and finally make the playoffs, however they drop one of the 3 against UI, PSU, EWU and finish 8-4
UNDER

Sac St 7.5
Sac St's win vs UND in the playoffs was a bit of a surprise based on their previous playoff record and how good UND was at home last season. Bennett and Tau-Tolliver both return along with NFL prospect Jackson Slater on the O-line and will be the center of the offense. Opposite of Hastings I think that Bennett, if he is on, can absolutely shred teams and win games.
Schedule wise they start against 2 MWC teams but they avoid UM and Idaho in the BSC play. They play at MSU, host Davis, EWU and Weber. Prediction The Hornets drop the first 2 games and lose in Bozeman and against UC Davis. Not sure I can find another loss on the schedule. 8-4
OVER

Idaho 7.5
Idaho is probably the biggest unknown this year in the conference. Hayden Hatten gone (NFL), Gevani McCoy gone (OSU), Jermaine Jackson gone (NFL), Anthony Woods gone (Utah), Abraham Williams IN (Weber St). I think Idaho still has a ton of talent. The backup look absolutely stellar in his lone start vs ISU. Coach Eck is starting to put his stamp on this team. The Oline and defense has a bunch of returning players and that's the benefit of playing young kids.
Despite one of the better fan support in the Big Sky Idaho continues to schedule money games. They start out at Oregon and the next week go to MW Wyoming. Then they play final four last season Albany at home than @Abilene Christian, @UC Davis, home vs NAU then @MSU. 4-3 is a best case scenario with a real possibility of 3-4 being more likely and 2-5 being a legitimate possibility.PredictionThe back half of the season gets easier so I think 8-4 is a very real possibility. I see 4 losses for sure on the schedule but after that is gets tough. Still I think they drop one some where else and finish 7-5.
UNDER

They did a few other teams and I'll post on those but this is a start. What say you?

[Montanabob]

not sure how you justify this comment for Idaho:

Despite one of the better fan support in the Big Sky Idaho continues to schedule money games

they are a mixed bag with some who hate they for dropping to FCS, some for even having football, and the rest who might show up to a game. 1 possible sold out game (griz) in 3 years....

[Montanabob]

and all under except MSU. Tommy BSC MVP but we HAVE to get to the second team early and often to grow QB2....

[MSU01]

not sure how you justify this comment for Idaho:

Despite one of the better fan support in the Big Sky Idaho continues to schedule money games

they are a mixed bag with some who hate they for dropping to FCS, some for even having football, and the rest who might show up to a game. 1 possible sold out game (griz) in 3 years....

Seems pretty reasonable, they were 4th out of 12 in the Big Sky in average attendance last year behind UM, MSU, and Sac. But having home games against both UM and MSU in the same year will obviously boost attendance numbers a bit with how well those two fanbases travel to relatively close road games. The mentality of the Idaho fanbase has definitely taken a major shift in direction since Eck was hired...turns out winning a lot of games is more fun than losing even if it's FCS and not FBS.

Regarding the over/unders, not a single Bobcat fan here is going to pick over for the Griz or under for the Bobcats. If MSU is reasonably healthy heading into November I think they're a great shot to go 10-2 or better, but the ending schedule looks pretty tough if Sac and Davis are decent this year.

[TomCat88]

MSU has been lackluster the last two years on the road. Nearly lost to struggling EWU and NAU before getting stomped by sdsu in ‘22. Then last year with hard luck losses to Idaho and SDSU, then the no-show vs UM.

Tough to pick Bobcats to win at New Mexico and Davis. Maybe the loud scoreboard will help road game prep.

[TomCat88]

Colter has been doing Big Sky win totals on his show and its been an interesting exercise. Most people make statements about team x and say they will be better, worse or they same as last year but most don't delve into the rosters, look at the schedule and then make predictions on the season. CN and Andrew Houghton have on the ESPN show and I've found it informative. Here's what they have done so far and I'll go through them highest to lowest, my take on it and prediction. The O/U numbers are what they decided, not mine.

UM 10.5
Honestly the only reason I think the ranking is so high is due to the way the season went last year. This isn't last year and for a decade and a half the Griz have really underperformed. This season they have significant questions at some of the most important spots on the field.

They do return talent on the O-line but as was apparent in the spring game and which Colter has spoken on, they lack a true center. This also highlights a dearth of depth for that position group which we all know is one place you need quality backups. An injury or two and things could get real ugly. I also think that having the mobile QB last season helps and not sure they have that this season like last.
They lost their best outside D-lineman to the portal and their best interior lineman to graduation who was the best player on defense in the Big Sky last year. I don't think they have another Gubner ready to slot in.
The QB is a huge unknown and they brought in a transfer. They always bring in a transfer but if Ah Yat was good to go why bring in the new guy? Everyone anointed the kid but he hasn't taken snaps in a meaningful situation.
The receiving corps will be the best in the conference, maybe the nation and the LB's will as always be very good.

The schedule is not difficult but they do travel to Grand Forks (a tough place to play we all know) and have to go to Bozeman, they avoid Idaho and Sac St. PredictionThe griz almost always drop a game they shouldn't (see NAU '23, Idaho '22 etc) so I predict 10-2. Still a high seed but I think they lose to UND or drop one somewhere else and MSU.
UNDER

I think the ranking is high because UM has a really good defensive scheme. It doesn't seem to matter who they plug in to the spots, it just works for them. It's been like that for a few years, so I imagine the players have really bought into it. So, despite the high turnover on that side of the ball, the expectation is for that to be the case in 2025.

The offense was stale through the Idaho game, but that win sparked them and they amazingly averaged nearly 500 ypg through the rest of the regular season -- an uptick of about 200 ypg. They came back to earth in the playoffs and it's really tough to say what that will look like on offense this season. The special teams carried them vs Furman and NDSU.

No idea what the transfer portal has done for them so far. Perhaps they've picked up some players there, which is adding to the optimism.

[94VegasCat]

I thought I read that um picked up 13-15 FBS transfers?

[lutecat]

Well how did that work out for Coach de-primed?

[Montanabob]

I thought I read that um picked up 13-15 FBS transfers?

there is a reason they no longer play FBS.

[iaafan]

I thought I read that um picked up 13-15 FBS transfers?

there is a reason they no longer play FBS.

They have 15 and not all played FBS. Some are JC and FCS. Some FBS are studs but play on deep teams, but others are walk-ons that didn’t have any business at a P5(4) in the first place. I haven’t taken a deep look but I see a mix of P5, G5, JC and FCS. Not sure how legit any of them are.

[BleedingBLue]

I thought I read that um picked up 13-15 FBS transfers?

there is a reason they no longer play FBS.

They have 15 and not all played FBS. Some are JC and FCS. Some FBS are studs but play on deep teams, but others are walk-ons that didn’t have any business at a P5(4) in the first place. I haven’t taken a deep look but I see a mix of P5, G5, JC and FCS. Not sure how legit any of them are.

They have 12 from FBS and 3 from FCS according to Hero Sports. 5 from P5 and 5 from the MWC. 2 each from Fresno and San Diego State. No idea how good any of them are, just commenting on where they came from.

[94VegasCat]

I thought I read that um picked up 13-15 FBS transfers?

there is a reason they no longer play FBS.

They have 15 and not all played FBS. Some are JC and FCS. Some FBS are studs but play on deep teams, but others are walk-ons that didn’t have any business at a P5(4) in the first place. I haven’t taken a deep look but I see a mix of P5, G5, JC and FCS. Not sure how legit any of them are.

They have 12 from FBS and 3 from FCS according to Hero Sports. 5 from P5 and 5 from the MWC. 2 each from Fresno and San Diego State. No idea how good any of them are, just commenting on where they came from.

Well they went to that place over the hill so the intelligence factor is zero

[GoldstoneCat]

Griz over. 11-1. What a cupcake schedule. Cats over. I think 10-2. Davis under, sac over, Idaho under.

[TomCat88]

Griz over. 11-1. What a cupcake schedule. Cats over. I think 10-2. Davis under, sac over, Idaho under.

The BSC is way down this year talent-wise. I think both MSU and UM have cupcake schedules. MSU lone non-conference game is vs UNM, which UM matches with UND. I'm not sure who's better between UNM and UND. Both play UCD and both play EWU, which is a wild card to be good in 2024. UM plays Weber, which I expect to continue a downward trend in 2024. MSU play SAC and Idaho, which are another pair of downward trending teams. Davis is the other team I think is in the running and they play both UM and MSU. They have the toughest non-conference opponent in Cal, but the rest are cupcakes. They play SAC and Idaho, but as mentioned I think both are trending downward.

I think it's a three-team race. I think MSU's toughest game is at UC Davis, not at UNM. UM's toughest game is at MSU. UCD's toughest game is at UM, not home vs MSU. I'd say UM has the easiest of the cupcake schedules. Odds are good that between SAC, Idaho, Weber and EWU one of them will be alright, but I don't expect any of them to be serious contenders.

DAVIS: of the three (UM, MSU, Davis), I think Davis is the most fragile. Last year, their season went as Lan Larison went. He was lost to a knee injury vs EWU and Davis consequently lost a couple close games they probably should've won. He came back and they rolled to the finish with a big win vs SAC but were shunned by the committee. So, while their fragile, they have a chip on their shoulder. I think they go 9-3.

UM: I worry about UM because I don't recall very many teams that were able to sustain their scoring with a return man. There have been great returners over the years at schools and in the pros, but I can't think of any that actually propelled a team to as much success as Bergen did for UM. They would've been out in the quarterfinals had it not been for his heroics. So, UM has to develop an offense to go with its great defensive scheme. I think they go 10-2.

MSU: MSU is the most talented team of the three. The question is will Mellott stay healthy against UNM and be healthy against Davis and UM. I think MSU with a healthy Mellott wins at least two of those three, probably wins one without him. I think the Bobcats go 10-2 and the BSC title will come down to the Cat-Griz game. I can easily see a 3-way tie for first with each of those teams winning at home and losing on the road.

(Disclaimer: all teams are subject to injury and internal strife. All bets are off if a preponderance of those items are present).

[GoldstoneCat]

Griz over. 11-1. What a cupcake schedule. Cats over. I think 10-2. Davis under, sac over, Idaho under.

The BSC is way down this year talent-wise. I think both MSU and UM have cupcake schedules. MSU lone non-conference game is vs UNM, which UM matches with UND. I'm not sure who's better between UNM and UND. Both play UCD and both play EWU, which is a wild card to be good in 2024. UM plays Weber, which I expect to continue a downward trend in 2024. MSU play SAC and Idaho, which are another pair of downward trending teams. Davis is the other team I think is in the running and they play both UM and MSU. They have the toughest non-conference opponent in Cal, but the rest are cupcakes. They play SAC and Idaho, but as mentioned I think both are trending downward.

I think it's a three-team race. I think MSU's toughest game is at UC Davis, not at UNM. UM's toughest game is at MSU. UCD's toughest game is at UM, not home vs MSU. I'd say UM has the easiest of the cupcake schedules. Odds are good that between SAC, Idaho, Weber and EWU one of them will be alright, but I don't expect any of them to be serious contenders.

DAVIS: of the three (UM, MSU, Davis), I think Davis is the most fragile. Last year, their season went as Lan Larison went. He was lost to a knee injury vs EWU and Davis consequently lost a couple close games they probably should've won. He came back and they rolled to the finish with a big win vs SAC but were shunned by the committee. So, while their fragile, they have a chip on their shoulder. I think they go 9-3.

UM: I worry about UM because I don't recall very many teams that were able to sustain their scoring with a return man. There have been great returners over the years at schools and in the pros, but I can't think of any that actually propelled a team to as much success as Bergen did for UM. They would've been out in the quarterfinals had it not been for his heroics. So, UM has to develop an offense to go with its great defensive scheme. I think they go 10-2.

MSU: MSU is the most talented team of the three. The question is will Mellott stay healthy against UNM and be healthy against Davis and UM. I think MSU with a healthy Mellott wins at least two of those three, probably wins one without him. I think the Bobcats go 10-2 and the BSC title will come down to the Cat-Griz game. I can easily see a 3-way tie for first with each of those teams winning at home and losing on the road.

(Disclaimer: all teams are subject to injury and internal strife. All bets are off if a preponderance of those items are present).

I agree with your take on the 3 team race and how it shakes out. I think it's reasonable to think we could be 11-0 going in to cat griz if Tommy is healthy all season. I think they could be as well. Their skill guys are really good and I expect them to be better on defense than we are. I figure we lose to one of UNM or Davis and bsc is decided by cat griz. I put in 2 losses to allow for the possibility Tommy is hurt against sac Idaho Davis or UM. Not that we automatically lose those without him but I don't like our backup situation at all.

[Montanabob]

what i see is that more people will kick away from that return man. out of the end zone, squibs and one side kicks. and short high punts and more 4th and go.

UM: I worry about UM because I don't recall very many teams that were able to sustain their scoring with a return man. There have been great returners over the years at schools and in the pros, but I can't think of any that actually propelled a team to as much success as Bergen did for UM. They would've been out in the quarterfinals had it not been for his heroics. So, UM has to develop an offense to go with its great defensive scheme. I think they go 10-2.

[CodyCat]

I will give credit where credit is due. The run the gris went on last year was impressive. With that said, I will never understand how it actually came together outside of Bergen's ST heroics.

The gris lost a lot of talent. I also dont think the gris offense was very good last season. IF teams kick away from Bergen and IF the gris QB doesnt work out like people think they will, I dont see over 10.5 wins. I think UND, Western Carolina, UCD, and MSU could all beat um and you never know what middle of the pack team might upset them. What Im really getting at is how shocked I am how confident people are that um will breeze to double digit wins. Bobby's second stint in missoula has not gone to plan other than the last ten weeks of last season, which does mean something. But, his resume would suggest 8-9 wins this year.

I think the criticism of the Cats is warranted. Like Tom stated, the Cats have been pretty pathetic on the road the last couple of years. I dont understand why "five members of the media unanimously said under for 9.5 wins" for the Cats.

@UNM: Toss Up
@Utah Tech: Win
Maine: Win
Mercyhurst: Win
@Idaho State: Win. But, I think this will be a good game.
UNC: Win
Idaho: Win.
@Portland State: Win. But, I think this will be a good game.
@Eastern: Win
Sac: Win
@UC Davis: Win
gris: Toss Up

Im interested to see what Idaho State looks like this year. They had huge improvement last year. So, what do they bring this year. Last year, Barney and Colter both talked a lot that 2024 was going to be Portland's year to make the playoffs. I don't know what they lost or brought in via the Portal, so is that hype still there? I think Idaho is such a mystery but I'm not buying them being a playoff team. They lost most of their talent. Eck has done a phenomenal job. He has stated publicly that his recruiting model is to expect his best players to transfer out of the program, so who does he have lined up to make another playoff run? Eastern, Its always a tough place to pick up a win. Im happy UC Davis is finally getting some love. They have flown a bit under the radar the past few years which I thought kept them out of the playoffs. The Cats November schedule is brutal. Going to Davis might be there toughest road game.

My overall take on the Cats: Have they learned to win on the road? How much will last seasons failure take this team? How will the two new Coordinators effect the change that needs to happen to take the next step? Personnel wise, nothing changed in our field goal kicking. What does that look like this year? For me, anything other than making it to Frisco would be a huge disappointment.

[Prodigal Cat]

EWU 5.5
I'm not sure i've ever seen a D1 team quit on the season the way EWU has the last couple seasons. In '22, the Eagles that played Idaho and UM in November wanted no part of those games losing a combined 111-23. They weren't that bad, they just didn't compete. IN '23 EWU started out looking solid against NDSU and took Fresno St to OT, beat Davis but in the middle of the season they had a bad loss to ISU and then lost to PSU which gave them 5 losses and effectively ended their season. The team they trotted out in Bozeman did the same as the previous year losing 57-14 and then lost at home to NAU. Is there a possibility that Visperas takes a step forward and Efton Chism goes crazy they and get back to the EWU of old, yeah, there is. Chism is one of the top players in the Big Sky this year.
For the first time in as long as I can remember the nonconference schedule for EWU isn't an absolute pit of despair. In fact the FBS is Nevada which is winnable but I still think 3-1 is likely. However after the Nevada game the BSC goes like this: Home against UM, @Sac St, vs Davis, @Idaho, vs MSU. They have 6 games in row against FBS or the cream of the BSC. What happens if they drop all of them? Or go 1-5? Will we see a team that has quit like we've seen the last 2 season? I think at best they are 5-4 at that point but most likely 4-5 or 3-6 after that stretch, eliminated from any thoughts of playoffs and Best is circling the drain. Once again the will to play could be gone. Prediction:UNDER



Idaho St 4.5
At the end of the '22 season in the Skyline wrap up podcast Colter asked Andrew how the Bengals get out of the basement of the Big Sky. They can't compete with most schools in terms of facilities, fan support etc. Andrew said they should hire a offensive minded head coach, bring in a QB that is willing to sling it and play an air raid style of game and let him make mistakes. Andrew was a damn Nostradamus. '23 saw the Bengals step out of the basement to the plucky up-start that is kind of a scary team to play. Gave SDSU (the San Diego version)and UM everything they wanted. Beat EWU in a crazy game, beat PSU, beat UNC. However it came apart at the end of the year where they got absolutely rolled by their rival. Really a rollercoaster of a season.
The schedule looks like this. They start out @Oregon State, they have a D2 and go to UND and host Southern Utah. 2-2 in the non-conference is very doable. Start out the BSC with MSU then to Cal Poly so I think they could be 3-3 at the mid way point. I think they steal a couple more games especially if EWU season goes like the last 2(see above) and ISU gets to 5-7 or 6-6. Prediction: OVER

[Prodigal Cat]

UM 10.5
Honestly the only reason I think the ranking is so high is due to the way the season went last year. This isn't last year and for a decade and a half the Griz have really underperformed. This season they have significant questions at some of the most important spots on the field.


UNDER

I think the ranking is high because UM has a really good defensive scheme. It doesn't seem to matter who they plug in to the spots, it just works for them. It's been like that for a few years, so I imagine the players have really bought into it. So, despite the high turnover on that side of the ball, the expectation is for that to be the case in 2025.

The offense was stale through the Idaho game, but that win sparked them and they amazingly averaged nearly 500 ypg through the rest of the regular season -- an uptick of about 200 ypg. They came back to earth in the playoffs and it's really tough to say what that will look like on offense this season. The special teams carried them vs Furman and NDSU.

No idea what the transfer portal has done for them so far. Perhaps they've picked up some players there, which is adding to the optimism.

This is the same scheme that in '22 had MSU, NDSU, and Idaho put up 55, 49, 30 against it respectively.
Last year was the aberration, not the norm and I give quite a bit of the credit to Gubner. The way he played in the Brawl last season was the main reason why he won MVP.

[Common Cat]

UM 10.5
Honestly the only reason I think the ranking is so high is due to the way the season went last year. This isn't last year and for a decade and a half the Griz have really underperformed. This season they have significant questions at some of the most important spots on the field.


UNDER

I think the ranking is high because UM has a really good defensive scheme. It doesn't seem to matter who they plug in to the spots, it just works for them. It's been like that for a few years, so I imagine the players have really bought into it. So, despite the high turnover on that side of the ball, the expectation is for that to be the case in 2025.

The offense was stale through the Idaho game, but that win sparked them and they amazingly averaged nearly 500 ypg through the rest of the regular season -- an uptick of about 200 ypg. They came back to earth in the playoffs and it's really tough to say what that will look like on offense this season. The special teams carried them vs Furman and NDSU.

No idea what the transfer portal has done for them so far. Perhaps they've picked up some players there, which is adding to the optimism.

This is the same scheme that in '22 had MSU, NDSU, and Idaho put up 55, 49, 30 against it respectively.
Last year was the aberration, not the norm and I give quite a bit of the credit to Gubner. The way he played in the Brawl last season was the main reason why he won MVP.

Well yes and no. Still the 3-3-5 stack but they ran different coverages in the back end last year. They also had different coaches including Tim Hauck and a certain Roger Cooper. They were improved last year on defense.