Saturday's Games Projections

ZifCat52 · Post by **ZifCat52** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:45 pm

Here are the updated projected standings after Thursday's games using the Sagarin ratings.

Montana State 11 / 3
Portland State 10 / 4
Montana 9 / 5
NAU 7 / 7
Weber State 6 / 8
Eastern Washington 6 / 8
Sac State 4 / 10
Idaho State 3 / 11

Projected winners Saturday:

Montana State over Weber State

Montana over Idaho State

NAU over Eastern Washington

Portland State over Sac State in Sacramento

Go Cats!!! Let's get everybody to the Fieldhouse Saturday, Thursday's crowd was very loud all game long, the players responded and helped encourage more crowd noise.

Barnbat · Post by **Barnbat** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 2:34 pm

Are these your projections, or are these your projections using the rating system mentioned. Did yesterdays projections have PSU over NAU. I see today PSU projected over Sac. Does the system take into consideration the home court and does this system not understand that PSU needs to start losing road games.

ZifCat52 · Post by **ZifCat52** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:53 pm

These projections are based on a spreadsheet using the Sagarin numbers that includes the home court advantage and the rating for each team to forecast the winner each game. As games are won or lost and as the strength of schedule fluctuates, teams move up or down, sometimes only slightly makes a difference. PSU was projected to lose at NAU last night by this system, but did not. They are projected, by the numbers, to win tomorrow, I also hope they don't. Also, before last night, MSU was projected to lose at Sac State in two weeks, now they are projected to win there. We need PSU to lose a few they're not supposed to and also the Grizzlies to get some breathing room, otherwise we have to win all home games and one of two on the road at Sac State/NAU to host the tournament.

Barnbat · Post by **Barnbat** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 7:08 am

thank you for the information. NAU is the mystery. Maybe it is injuries but they did come back at PSU in the end. It will be hard for MSU or UM to win at NAU. It may be real tough for MSU because it was so easy in Bozeman. UM has added Kamarr Davis but NAU can score it and NAU is due to start hitting the threes again.

MSUcantouchus · Post by **MSUcantouchus** » Sat Feb 05, 2005 7:10 pm

I think we need to watch out for montana as they are only one loss back and playing fairly well with Davis back. They could suprise us.