2025 Path to the Playoffs WEEK 11 –PART 1 - SELECTION COMMITTEE TOP 10 PREDICTION and WWWTL

[allcat]

While I think Weber could be a forgone conclusion, Davis could be good. It seems most of the posters have made that as inevitable.

[Catprint]

Let’s reset the conversation:

1) Everyone (writers, podcasters, Gris fans, Cat fans, the committee) all agree on a couple of things:

a) NDSU is #1 whether they win out or lose to UND and then beat Murray State and St. Thomas. Is there are remote chance they get #2? Yes, but it is so farfetched as to not be worth entertaining - at least not until Saturday night after the UND game.

b) The winner of the Brawl gets the #2 seed assuming both teams win out till that day.

2) The main question then becomes how far does the loser of The Brawl fall in the committee’s eyes. General consensus is #3, #4, or #5 with maybe a vote for #6. There are a number of factors to their final seed:

...a. Was The Brawl close game or does one team win by 15 or more points?
...b. What does Tarleton State do in their last two games (they have a bye this week). Game against North Alabama is a win. Last game against Austin Peay could be close.
...c. Does SDSU win three in a row?
...d. Does the committee somehow see Lehigh as a strong team even with an SOS of 90+?

3) We can be fairly sure of the following:

...a. None of the low SOS teams who will likely finish with 1 FCS loss are going to jump MSU or the Gris. This means Villanova, Mercer, SFA and Rhode Island are not any threat to take a Top 4 seed.

...b. The teams undefeated against the FCS will likely be Monmouth, Lehigh, Tenn. Tech, SELA, and Harvard. While Lehigh is currently fourth, I don’t think any of these teams will jump MSU or Gris. They could take a #4 seed. Jumping the loser of the Brawl would require a 20 or more point loss.

...c. The teams to be concerned about are:

i. Tarleton State - if they win out, they will be 11-1 with one FCS loss. They could easily be #3.

ii. SDSU – if they win out, they will be 10-2 with two FCS losses and a win over the Cats. Good enough to jump the Cats.

iii. UND – If they win out, they have a win against current #1, #8, #15, and #21 with only 2 FCS losses against current #2 and #22. This resume will look much better than MSU with 1 ranked win (Davis) and 2 ranked losses.

4) I put the odds of winning out for the Cats as follows:

...a. Weber – 95% - close as to a sure thing as can be.
...b. Davis – 80% - High confidence.
...c. Gris – 45% - hmmm

5) So if the Cats lose the Brawl, the million dollar “yes we can speculate and ruminate because we are fans” question is: Do we want to break the curse with NDSU and play them and beat them in Fargo or do we honestly believe we can win in a rematch in Missoula? Not very good choices. My observations:

a. Maybe we should hope for the #4 seed and Tarleton State gets #3. Not a perfect scenario but no ghosts from the past and nice outdoor weather (most likely) and an opponent who doesn’t know us. This is my first choice.

b. Maybe we can break the curse at Fargo after we win two home games. Look what the Penguins almost did last Saturday. I like this option second best.

c. Sure we can win in Missoula after losing 4 weeks before BUT that is a big ask. Least favorite option. It is nothing but trouble.

6) Finally, while many of us think the committee conspires to put NDSU/SDSU or MSU/UM on opposite brackets, I don’t think that is true. Just look at last year. Therefore, the odds of getting an all-Montana national championship are slim. The Gris and Cats have to end up #2 and #4/#5 and one of us has to win at Fargo (and maybe even the quarterfinal game on the road). Seems unlikely.

[91catAlum]

a. Maybe we should hope for the #4 seed and Tarleton State gets #3. Not a perfect scenario but no ghosts from the past and nice outdoor weather (most likely) and an opponent who doesn’t know us. This is my first choice.

The 3 and 4 seeds are on opposite sides of the bracket and can only meet in Nashville.

If MSU loses Cat griz and gets the 4 or 5 seed, we goto Fargo for the semi's.
If we get the 3 seed we goto missoula. It's that simple.
Winning Cat griz is the only way out of that.

[Prodigal Cat]

a. Maybe we should hope for the #4 seed and Tarleton State gets #3. Not a perfect scenario but no ghosts from the past and nice outdoor weather (most likely) and an opponent who doesn’t know us. This is my first choice.

The 3 and 4 seeds are on opposite sides of the bracket and can only meet in Nashville.

If MSU loses Cat griz and gets the 4 or 5 seed, we goto Fargo for the semi's.
If we get the 3 seed we goto missoula. It's that simple.
Winning Cat griz is the only way out of that.

You kinda wonder, and the committee has done this before, if they try and put the loser of the brawl in the 4 or 5 and SDSU in the 6 or 7. That way you have the Big Sky champ at 2 on one side of the bracket with SDSU and the Valley Champ at 1 on the other with the second place Big Sky team. Thats why SDSU held in top 10 and more specifically the 6. At 7 they would go to the 2 which would mean a qtr final rematch with the Jacks but at 6 its a Semifinal rematch if the jacks knock off the 3 (Montana in this sorting but most likely Tarleton in the final one because the brawl loser dropped to 4)

Interesting projection is if SDSU figures it out and wins their last 3 do they move up to the 4 or 5? Because that would put NDSU, SDSU and Brawl loser all on the same side. The 2 would be much more desirable than the 1 than.

[Joe Bobcat]

a. Maybe we should hope for the #4 seed and Tarleton State gets #3. Not a perfect scenario but no ghosts from the past and nice outdoor weather (most likely) and an opponent who doesn’t know us. This is my first choice.

The 3 and 4 seeds are on opposite sides of the bracket and can only meet in Nashville.

If MSU loses Cat griz and gets the 4 or 5 seed, we goto Fargo for the semi's.
If we get the 3 seed we goto missoula. It's that simple.
Winning Cat griz is the only way out of that.

You kinda wonder, and the committee has done this before, if they try and put the loser of the brawl in the 4 or 5 and SDSU in the 6 or 7. That way you have the Big Sky champ at 2 on one side of the bracket with SDSU and the Valley Champ at 1 on the other with the second place Big Sky team. Thats why SDSU held in top 10 and more specifically the 6. At 7 they would go to the 2 which would mean a qtr final rematch with the Jacks but at 6 its a Semifinal rematch if the jacks knock off the 3 (Montana in this sorting but most likely Tarleton in the final one because the brawl loser dropped to 4)

Interesting projection is if SDSU figures it out and wins their last 3 do they move up to the 4 or 5? Because that would put NDSU, SDSU and Brawl loser all on the same side. The 2 would be much more desirable than the 1 than.

hahaha I'll trust that you have all of that right but I got lost in all of those possibilities.

Seriously that SNL skit of "the Californians" discussing what road to take to get from here to there came to my mind.

[catatac]

Is your very first point something you've seen the analysts say? I would think if NDSU loses to UND, the winner of Cat\Griz jumps to the #1 seed.

[RockyBearCat]

Is your very first point something you've seen the analysts say? I would think if NDSU loses to UND, the winner of Cat\Griz jumps to the #1 seed.

I agree if UND beats NDSU, Brawl winner is 1. Cats would have only 1 FCS loss to a then healthy #2 SDSU in 2OT if they win the brawl. Remember, everyone here and elsewhere were stating that it was NDSU at one level, SDSU at another level and then the CATS at the next level. All other top teams were in the next grouping. Also, if the hated gris go undefeated and beat #2/3 CATS the week before they go to 1.

Either way, Brawl winner jumps NDSU (loss to #15).

[ilovethecats]

This would be an AMAZING year to have homefield in the Brawl. Stupid covid......

[MSU01]

A lot of people firmly have their blue and gold glasses on here predicting what the committee will do in certain scenarios in which NDSU finishes 11-1. Remember 2022...it doesn't always go how we think it should.

[catatac]

Is your very first point something you've seen the analysts say? I would think if NDSU loses to UND, the winner of Cat\Griz jumps to the #1 seed.

I agree if UND beats NDSU, Brawl winner is 1. Cats would have only 1 FCS loss to a then healthy #2 SDSU in 2OT if they win the brawl. Remember, everyone here and elsewhere were stating that it was NDSU at one level, SDSU at another level and then the CATS at the next level. All other top teams were in the next grouping. Also, if the hated gris go undefeated and beat #2/3 CATS the week before they go to 1.

Either way, Brawl winner jumps NDSU (loss to #15).

15? I'd say 4, with Lehigh at 3, assuming they win out.

[ilovethecats]

Is your very first point something you've seen the analysts say? I would think if NDSU loses to UND, the winner of Cat\Griz jumps to the #1 seed.

I agree if UND beats NDSU, Brawl winner is 1. Cats would have only 1 FCS loss to a then healthy #2 SDSU in 2OT if they win the brawl. Remember, everyone here and elsewhere were stating that it was NDSU at one level, SDSU at another level and then the CATS at the next level. All other top teams were in the next grouping. Also, if the hated gris go undefeated and beat #2/3 CATS the week before they go to 1.

Either way, Brawl winner jumps NDSU (loss to #15).

Am I reading you correctly? You think the loser of Cat griz will be a 15 seed?

[tetoncat]

Is your very first point something you've seen the analysts say? I would think if NDSU loses to UND, the winner of Cat\Griz jumps to the #1 seed.

I agree if UND beats NDSU, Brawl winner is 1. Cats would have only 1 FCS loss to a then healthy #2 SDSU in 2OT if they win the brawl. Remember, everyone here and elsewhere were stating that it was NDSU at one level, SDSU at another level and then the CATS at the next level. All other top teams were in the next grouping. Also, if the hated gris go undefeated and beat #2/3 CATS the week before they go to 1.

Either way, Brawl winner jumps NDSU (loss to #15).

Am I reading you correctly? You think the loser of Cat griz will be a 15 seed?

Think he is saying NDSU loss would be to the #15

[ilovethecats]

Is your very first point something you've seen the analysts say? I would think if NDSU loses to UND, the winner of Cat\Griz jumps to the #1 seed.

I agree if UND beats NDSU, Brawl winner is 1. Cats would have only 1 FCS loss to a then healthy #2 SDSU in 2OT if they win the brawl. Remember, everyone here and elsewhere were stating that it was NDSU at one level, SDSU at another level and then the CATS at the next level. All other top teams were in the next grouping. Also, if the hated gris go undefeated and beat #2/3 CATS the week before they go to 1.

Either way, Brawl winner jumps NDSU (loss to #15).

Am I reading you correctly? You think the loser of Cat griz will be a 15 seed?

Think he is saying NDSU loss would be to the #15

Ahhhh, gotcha. That makes sense! I was trying to wrap my head around that. Thanks!

[91catAlum]

Is your very first point something you've seen the analysts say? I would think if NDSU loses to UND, the winner of Cat\Griz jumps to the #1 seed.

I agree if UND beats NDSU, Brawl winner is 1. Cats would have only 1 FCS loss to a then healthy #2 SDSU in 2OT if they win the brawl. Remember, everyone here and elsewhere were stating that it was NDSU at one level, SDSU at another level and then the CATS at the next level. All other top teams were in the next grouping. Also, if the hated gris go undefeated and beat #2/3 CATS the week before they go to 1.

Either way, Brawl winner jumps NDSU (loss to #15).

If ndsu lost to und and then won out, I think ndsu would still get #1. Think in terms of resume. Ndsu would be an 11-1 Missouri Valley team with 4 ranked wins. That's better than the Cats, who would be 10-2 with 2 ranked wins, if we beat um.

If the griz win the brawl and go 12-0, there's a good chance they get the 1 seed, but not a guarantee, as they'd only have 11 D1 wins with 2 now-ranked wins. Ndsu's 11 D1 wins with 4 ranked would still look better on paper.

[catatac]

Is your very first point something you've seen the analysts say? I would think if NDSU loses to UND, the winner of Cat\Griz jumps to the #1 seed.

I agree if UND beats NDSU, Brawl winner is 1. Cats would have only 1 FCS loss to a then healthy #2 SDSU in 2OT if they win the brawl. Remember, everyone here and elsewhere were stating that it was NDSU at one level, SDSU at another level and then the CATS at the next level. All other top teams were in the next grouping. Also, if the hated gris go undefeated and beat #2/3 CATS the week before they go to 1.

Either way, Brawl winner jumps NDSU (loss to #15).

If ndsu lost to und and then won out, I think ndsu would still get #1. Think in terms of resume. Ndsu would be an 11-1 Missouri Valley team with 4 ranked wins. That's better than the Cats, who would be 10-2 with 2 ranked wins, if we beat um.

If the griz win the brawl and go 12-0, there's a good chance they get the 1 seed, but not a guarantee, as they'd only have 11 D1 wins with 2 now-ranked wins. Ndsu's 11 D1 wins with 4 ranked would still look better on paper.

I don't think so. You look at an undefeated Griz team that just knocked off the #2 team on the country, compared to and NDSU team that had a late season loss (Yes, late season matters) to an average team... I'd say it's highly probably they get the #2. So then you look at the fact that the committee currently has the Cats higher than the Griz... winner of the brawl gets #1 if NDSU loses a game.

[onceacat]

Is your very first point something you've seen the analysts say? I would think if NDSU loses to UND, the winner of Cat\Griz jumps to the #1 seed.

Gris maybe do with an undefeated season & a big win in the Brawl.

I don’t think a 2 loss Cats team does though.

[catatac]

Is your very first point something you've seen the analysts say? I would think if NDSU loses to UND, the winner of Cat\Griz jumps to the #1 seed.

Gris maybe do with an undefeated season & a big win in the Brawl.

I don’t think a 2 loss Cats team does though.

But the playoff committee has us ranked higher than UM right now.

[91catAlum]

Is your very first point something you've seen the analysts say? I would think if NDSU loses to UND, the winner of Cat\Griz jumps to the #1 seed.

Gris maybe do with an undefeated season & a big win in the Brawl.

I don’t think a 2 loss Cats team does though.

But the playoff committee has us ranked higher than UM right now.

The committee isn't obligated to drop ndsu if they lose a game. They'd still finish with 11 D1 wins, 4 ranked wins including stomping then #2. The Cats would have 10 D1 wins with 2 ranked wins if we beat um.

I mean they might give MSU the 1 seed in that case but I think ndsu would stay at 1 based on overall resume. Who knows.

Doesn't really matter though, both 1 and 2 are home throughout the playoffs.

[onceacat]

Is your very first point something you've seen the analysts say? I would think if NDSU loses to UND, the winner of Cat\Griz jumps to the #1 seed.

Gris maybe do with an undefeated season & a big win in the Brawl.

I don’t think a 2 loss Cats team does though.

But the playoff committee has us ranked higher than UM right now.

Yes, but we are talking about a scenario where the Cats lose the Brawl. AND NDSU loses to a team that the Pandas beat. A 11-0 gris team with 2 wins against playoff seeds vs a 11-1 NDSU team with a 1-1 record agains the seeds. Plus the common opponent.

Not saying it's a done deal, but its far more likely. Cats won't get that nod due to the 2 losses.

[onceacat]

I'd much rather play the Pandas in Zootown a second time that play the Bizen in Fargo.

UM ususally lays an egg at home in the playoffs.

NDSU is just flat out better than the gris.

Easier to travel to Missoula.

Cats would be REALLY hungry after losing the Brawl. I think the odds of the gris winning 2 consecutive 50-50 games are pretty long.