Top 2 path

[Catprint]

Final Early Morning Comment: Assuming Cats win out, a Top 2 seed is statistically very low possibility. Maybe 5-10%. Too many things have to happen. It is an extremely convoluted path. A top 4 seed maybe 80% chance if Cats win out. (There are scenarios for other teams to leap ahead like the one I outlined). A top 8 seed is 95% if Cats win every game or even if the win every game except the Brawl. A 9-3 MSU team with 2 ranked wins (UC Davis and NAU) and 2 top 5 ranked losses (SDSU and Gris) will get a Top 8 seed. Again, there are lots of undefeated FCS teams (NDSU, SDSU, Tarleton, UM, Lehigh, Tenn. Tech, Harvard) and there could be lots of 1 loss FCS teams so there are too many different paths at this point.

[onceacat]

I disagree. If SDSU loses twice and we win out, we would absolutely jump them in the seeds.

Wrong. The head to head would give the nod to the Jacks all day. NO WAY a 10-2 SDSU is ranked below a 10-2 MSU.

Wrong. 10-1 MSU > 10-2 SDSU. The committee only counts FBS games if you win them.

You beat me to it. I agree, 2 FCS losses should put SDSU behind the 1 FCS loss Cats. Will it? who knows.

The teams would be in the same tier for seeds and the number 1 thing they would consider is head to head. It would trump everything else. If you are saying they would ignore that because of 1 extra loss you are mistaken.

Dude, no way a 10-2 FCS SDSU would be seeded higher than a 10-1 cat team. What are you smoking?

a Cat team with ZERO FCS losses was seeded behind a NDSU team with one FCS loss in '22. It has actually happened. I don't smoke.

Context matters. NDSU's 1 loss in 2022 was a 2pt loss to the #1 seed. Since the #1 and 2 seeds are a different animal than the #3 and 4 (first band has homefield til Frisco), I also think there was some effort by the committee to avoid the NDSU-SDSU rematch until Frisco (and they got their wish).

If SDSU were to somehow lose TWO games (both of which would have to be in-conference), they would likely be 3rd in the standings in their own conference, theoretically behind undefeated NDSU and 1 conference loss UND. No way the 3rd place MVFC gets a 2-seed.

If you believe what the committee says about their process for selecting seeds this is completely wrong. They vote based on resumes, not potential matchups, at least that's what they say the process is. SOOOOO

Did NDSU lose an FCS game in 2022 = yes and they lost it at home
Did NDSU lose an FBS game in 2022 = yes
Did MSU lose an FBS game in 2022 = yes
Did MSU lose an FCS game in 2022 = no, they were undefeated in the FCS

I'm not sure what else to say. The 2022 Montana State Bobcats were seeded below a team the lost an FCS game at home despite being undefeated. Further Sac St was undefeated vs the FCS and had an FBS win to finish 11-0, one win better than 10-1 SDSU and also had beaten a common opponent (UNI) by a larger margin.

Every time in the last handful of years that the BSC winner has finished tied or 1 win/loss better than an xDSU's, the MVFC team was seeded higher. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Yet somehow a bunch of posters here thinks it'll be different this time. They are right, this time the committee will have a head to head to factor in. One where the Cats LOST. Last season the Cats were undefeated and were the 3 until SDSU picked up a 2nd loss in the marker and didn't get the 1 till the Bison lost their 2nd in the final game. It wasn't until the Cats had 2 extra D1 wins over them before they jumped them.

Lets look at resume's for the Jacks vs the Cats if the Jacks lost the Marker and to ILST.
Cats will be 10-2, 10-1 vs the FCS, with 3 ranked wins
Jacks will be 10-2, 10-2 vs the FCS with 5 ranked wins AND the head to head win vs the Cats. More ranked wins, plays in the MVFC, and the head to head. Winner despite the extra loss.

So keep telling me how i'm wrong but not bringing any sort of historical data. I keep showing the instances that prove what I'm saying is true and you all keep saying "no way" with zero evidence to back it up.

You are wrong because you are ignoring Strength of Schedule. That’s important.

Also ignoring that it turned out that the committee was 100% proven correct by some pretty embarrassing BSC losses in the playoffs.

[RKMCMT]

Final Early Morning Comment: Assuming Cats win out, a Top 2 seed is statistically very low possibility. Maybe 5-10%. Too many things have to happen. It is an extremely convoluted path. A top 4 seed maybe 80% chance if Cats win out. (There are scenarios for other teams to leap ahead like the one I outlined). A top 8 seed is 95% if Cats win every game or even if the win every game except the Brawl. A 9-3 MSU team with 2 ranked wins (UC Davis and NAU) and 2 top 5 ranked losses (SDSU and Gris) will get a Top 8 seed. Again, there are lots of undefeated FCS teams (NDSU, SDSU, Tarleton, UM, Lehigh, Tenn. Tech, Harvard) and there could be lots of 1 loss FCS teams so there are too many different paths at this point.

We'll be 2 or 3 if we win out. Especially in the fashion we've been winning since Mercyhurst.

Less than zero chance we're outside the top 4.

[onceacat]

Final Early Morning Comment: Assuming Cats win out, a Top 2 seed is statistically very low possibility. Maybe 5-10%. Too many things have to happen. It is an extremely convoluted path. A top 4 seed maybe 80% chance if Cats win out. (There are scenarios for other teams to leap ahead like the one I outlined). A top 8 seed is 95% if Cats win every game or even if the win every game except the Brawl. A 9-3 MSU team with 2 ranked wins (UC Davis and NAU) and 2 top 5 ranked losses (SDSU and Gris) will get a Top 8 seed. Again, there are lots of undefeated FCS teams (NDSU, SDSU, Tarleton, UM, Lehigh, Tenn. Tech, Harvard) and there could be lots of 1 loss FCS teams so there are too many different paths at this point.

We'll be 2 or 3 if we win out. Especially in the fashion we've been winning since Mercyhurst.

Less than zero chance we're outside the top 4.

Yeah, Catprint is a little off base here IMO. 99%+ chance Cats are Top 4 if they win out. Theres no team below the Cats that has a SOS that gets them to jump the Cats. More likely than not a 10-2 Cats team jumps Tarelton for the #3 spot.

A 9-3 Cats team with a close loss to the #1/#2, Top 10 Oregon, and #4 seed the gris is EASILY a Top 8 seed. Probably the #5, but again, 99% chance of a Top 8. The other potential undefeated teams (Tenn Tech, Harvard, Lehigh) are going to be a stretch to jump the Cats. I just don't see any voter, either in the polls or on the committee punishing the currently #5 Cats for losing on the road in the Brawl...MAYBE if one of these teams is undefeated AND the Cats lose the Brawl by 30+ and aren't rolling teams like Davis & NAU.

People are forgetting the way human psychology works. When a team starts high in the polls in the pre-season, they need to do something to make the voters drop the team in the polls. Likewise, a team that starts low needs to do something to make a pollster move them up.

Theres just not a scenario in which voters drop the 4/5 team multiple spots for losing to the other 4/5 team. Same thing at the top. Pollsters aren't going to drop the loser of the Marker significantly unless theres something else going on.