Artificial Intelligence is going to change the world

[catatac]

AI, or AGI, Chat GPT 5 and beyond, Bard, and a whole host of other emerging technologies are exploding onto the scene and doing some pretty incredible things. There are a lot of technologies coming together at the same time (The stuff I just mentioned, full genome sequencing, quantum computing, etc.). The scary part about all of this is that we are at the very, very beginning of understanding all the capabilities here. This could all lead to the downfall of human civilization, or utopia. I don't think anyone really knows what is going to happen here but what everyone really needs to understand is that the work is going to be a drastically different place in a few years, if that. Many experts are telling us that if you think things like the automobile, electricity, the internet, covid19, changed the world, you ain't seen nothing yet. This next evolution will completely blow all of those things out of the water, a million times over. Get ready, it's going to be a ride!

One question to hopefully get a discussion started on all this. How are we going to cope with the reality of half of the jobs in the world disappearing in less than five years?

[coloradocat]

I haven't read a ton on the topic but a lot of what I've seen feels like hyperbole lacking a perspective of history, in both the positive and negative direction. I understand that "this time it's different" and somewhat believe that, but human civilization has undergone transformative changes in the past and weathered the initial storm to adapt to the new landscape.

I don't see it leading to the downfall of civilization, the nations of the world are in a more peaceful/co-dependent state than any other time in history, regardless of what the people on TV or Twitter tell you. Competition still exists of course, but the countries poised to make us of the technology already work closely in many sensitive areas. It also won't lead to utopia because human nature will never allow utopia to exist, before you even consider that there is not one universal definition of it.

How are we going to cope with the reality of half of the jobs in the world disappearing in less than five years?

Every big change has opened up new opportunities and new occupations. AGI by definition will primarily change skilled labor, not unskilled labor. The first jobs to be impacted will be white collar, held by people that are more likely to be adaptable to new fields. They can take their current knowledge base and leverage it into a new/modified occupation. And half of their jobs won't disappear in less than five years. Even things that move fast move slow.

[coloradocat]

Great topic by the way. Hope this takes off.

[cats2506]

I cant find the link, but I recently read an article that they tested an AI when they released it. I think it was ChatGPT. Anyway they had it do the test again 6 months later after interacting with humans for some time. Its test score dropped something like 7 points from the first test.

[MSU01]

I cant find the link, but I recently read an article that they tested an AI when they released it. I think it was ChatGPT. Anyway they had it do the test again 6 months later after interacting with humans for some time. Its test score dropped something like 7 points from the first test.

I can believe that, just look at eGriz for a great example of a place where interacting with real humans can make you dumber.

[MSU Toddler]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoVJKj8lcNQ

[The Butcher]

I highly appreciate ChatGPT for its exceptional utility in swiftly creating professionally worded documents. My usage of it has primarily been for this fundamental purpose, and I haven't yet explored its full range of capabilities.

[tdub]

I cant find the link, but I recently read an article that they tested an AI when they released it. I think it was ChatGPT. Anyway they had it do the test again 6 months later after interacting with humans for some time. Its test score dropped something like 7 points from the first test.

I can believe that, just look at eGriz for a great example of a place where interacting with real humans can make you dumber.

This is a vastly underrated comment.

[catatac]

I haven't read a ton on the topic but a lot of what I've seen feels like hyperbole lacking a perspective of history, in both the positive and negative direction. I understand that "this time it's different" and somewhat believe that, but human civilization has undergone transformative changes in the past and weathered the initial storm to adapt to the new landscape.

I don't see it leading to the downfall of civilization, the nations of the world are in a more peaceful/co-dependent state than any other time in history, regardless of what the people on TV or Twitter tell you. Competition still exists of course, but the countries poised to make us of the technology already work closely in many sensitive areas. It also won't lead to utopia because human nature will never allow utopia to exist, before you even consider that there is not one universal definition of it.

How are we going to cope with the reality of half of the jobs in the world disappearing in less than five years?

Every big change has opened up new opportunities and new occupations. AGI by definition will primarily change skilled labor, not unskilled labor. The first jobs to be impacted will be white collar, held by people that are more likely to be adaptable to new fields. They can take their current knowledge base and leverage it into a new/modified occupation. And half of their jobs won't disappear in less than five years. Even things that move fast move slow.

Great points! Ya, I'm not a dooms dayer, and try to avoid mainstream media as much as possible so, I try to not get sucked into all the hype. I'm not in the camp thinking this is going to bring down human civilization or anything like that, but I've listened to enough experts in these fields\technologies as to be convinced that there are massive changes coming. We're not just talking faster computers and smarter robots here, but something fundamentally different. I was just curious to get others' perspectives on what their guesses are in terms of predicting the future 5, 20, 50 years out. One prediction I've seen several of the experts make is the there will basically be no computer programmers in five years. As you state, that means people will need to shift into other areas of this technology and continue to grow and advance it, rather than writing code. The other two areas where things will look vastly different in five years are education and healthcare. If an AI mechanism is 1,000 times faster, more accurate, and more consistent in diagnosing and prescribing treatments for patients... doctors and nurses job functions will most certainly change.

[coloradocat]

I haven't read a ton on the topic but a lot of what I've seen feels like hyperbole lacking a perspective of history, in both the positive and negative direction. I understand that "this time it's different" and somewhat believe that, but human civilization has undergone transformative changes in the past and weathered the initial storm to adapt to the new landscape.

I don't see it leading to the downfall of civilization, the nations of the world are in a more peaceful/co-dependent state than any other time in history, regardless of what the people on TV or Twitter tell you. Competition still exists of course, but the countries poised to make us of the technology already work closely in many sensitive areas. It also won't lead to utopia because human nature will never allow utopia to exist, before you even consider that there is not one universal definition of it.

How are we going to cope with the reality of half of the jobs in the world disappearing in less than five years?

Every big change has opened up new opportunities and new occupations. AGI by definition will primarily change skilled labor, not unskilled labor. The first jobs to be impacted will be white collar, held by people that are more likely to be adaptable to new fields. They can take their current knowledge base and leverage it into a new/modified occupation. And half of their jobs won't disappear in less than five years. Even things that move fast move slow.

Great points! Ya, I'm not a dooms dayer, and try to avoid mainstream media as much as possible so, I try to not get sucked into all the hype. I'm not in the camp thinking this is going to bring down human civilization or anything like that, but I've listened to enough experts in these fields\technologies as to be convinced that there are massive changes coming. We're not just talking faster computers and smarter robots here, but something fundamentally different. I was just curious to get others' perspectives on what their guesses are in terms of predicting the future 5, 20, 50 years out. One prediction I've seen several of the experts make is the there will basically be no computer programmers in five years. As you state, that means people will need to shift into other areas of this technology and continue to grow and advance it, rather than writing code. The other two areas where things will look vastly different in five years are education and healthcare. If an AI mechanism is 1,000 times faster, more accurate, and more consistent in diagnosing and prescribing treatments for patients... doctors and nurses job functions will most certainly change.

Healthcare makes a lot of sense. Doctors and nurses, those that are still necessary, may become the human interaction layer to care more than the care providers. I wonder what impact AI will have on new/experimental methods of treatment and drugs. The approval process is very slow and in many ways both overly cautious and while permissive of statistically minor flaws. Ideally AI would lead not just to faster testing, but better testing/development to reduce the negative effects of drugs that today take up 2/3 of every pharma commercial.

I hadn't thought of education. The types of careers to prepare for will be different in postsecondary education but more interesting will be the impacts on K-12. I can see it becoming much more streamlined than it already is in public schools. The more interesting aspect will be how it changes home schooling / independent education. I can see a huge movement for parents to get their kids out of government schools and take responsibility for their education themselves with the new tools available, especially if efficiencies in other areas lead to more non-work time. If people think politics around schooling is bad now, just wait!

[catatac]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoVJKj8lcNQ

Great find... I find all this quite fascinating. Here's another interview I found interesting. The entertainment industry thing is pretty crazy to think about too. THe other day my son sent me the AI manufactured Drake song, pretty crazy. For those not familiar, someone asked an AI chat bot to come up with a new Drake song. It put together all the music, composition, lyrics, etc, used Drake's actual voice (by copying his actual words from the entire library of all his music), and released it. I'm not a Drake fan, but my son is and he said it's pretty damn good.

[catatac]

Here's another podcast with some interesting perspectives. The education system is going to have to adapt fast here, because of how fast things are changing. I'm struggling with the education part of things because in my personal opinion... I do think we should still be teaching basic math, geography, history, etc. in our school systems. Yes I get it, there is no need to memorize anything anymore because everyone will always have whatever information they need at their fingertips, but just crazy to think about. What should we be teaching in our schools now?

[RickRund]

I do agree with catatac that we should still be teaching basic math, geography, etc...

Not sure if self-driving cars is considered AI but there is no way that I trust a self-driving car. At this stage of the game I trust my abilities more. Maybe I am foolish.

[catatac]

I do agree with catatac that we should still be teaching basic math, geography, etc...

Not sure if self-driving cars is considered AI but there is no way that I trust a self-driving car. At this stage of the game I trust my abilities more. Maybe I am foolish.

I'm thinking once the world gets to the point where all cars are autonomous, fatalities will go down by orders of magnitude. Computers are just way better at things like that than humans. That said, I hear what you're saying though and personally I'm with ya and TODAY I trust myself more!

[coloradocat]

I do agree with catatac that we should still be teaching basic math, geography, etc...

Not sure if self-driving cars is considered AI but there is no way that I trust a self-driving car. At this stage of the game I trust my abilities more. Maybe I am foolish.

I'm thinking once the world gets to the point where all cars are autonomous, fatalities will go down by orders of magnitude. Computers are just way better at things like that than humans. That said, I hear what you're saying though and personally I'm with ya and TODAY I trust myself more!

Once we're 100% autonomous, fatalities will likely disappear because computers are very good at predicting very predictable scenarios, which will be the case when there aren't any humans mucking up the environment. In the meantime the challenge is significant because of us. Autonomous vehicles seem perfect for more collectivist societies, way more than America. We're too independent to give up the keys.

[nevadacat]

I wonder how AI will impact athletics. Will a college football team need more than one coach, the one that simply pushes the button and has the AI spit out the game plan? Can AI using video feed make real time adjustments to the game plan? During practice, can computers hooked up to cameras and linked to AR devices inside helmets provide players with immediate feedback on technique? In 10 years will college football experience an AI “arms race?”

[catatac]

I wonder how AI will impact athletics. Will a college football team need more than one coach, the one that simply pushes the button and has the AI spit out the game plan? Can AI using video feed make real time adjustments to the game plan? During practice, can computers hooked up to cameras and linked to AR devices inside helmets provide players with immediate feedback on technique? In 10 years will college football experience an AI “arms race?”

That's one I never even thought of, who knows? Even looking at NFL where it is even more money driven for performance than college... I do think it has the potential to transform the way the game is coached and likely played. But back to college, it gets me to wondering what types of classes will even be taught in college in twenty years, if there are in fact traditional college campuses, etc. Crazy to think about.

[catatac]

Here's another one with some interesting info. It's a bit longer, but there is some great information about the orders of magnitude for how smart AI will become. If interested, listen to the first 10-15 mins or so.....

[catatac]

Here's a decent interview with Open AI execs. If you don't want to invest the time to watch the whole thing, you can skip to the 40 minute mark and just watch the end, some interesting content there. Nobody questions that AI and AGI is going to change the world, the only questions are around just how it's going to play out and just how things are going to change.

I read a different article where one of the experts talked about how we're heading into the fourth major breakthrough in technology, world changing events for the human race (Steam engine, then electricity, then computers and the internet, and now AI and AGI.) This one could have a bigger impact than all the ones prior.

I know a lot of people that are already using AI in their jobs, at an exponential rate. Chat GPT has 180 million users already.