Fan's Prediction - Conference

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Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by mslacat » Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:04 pm

Well the Conference season gears up starting tomorrow. We have seen the pre-season so I guess it is finally time for predictions for the games that really count. Conference! Here is my take.

Men
This team has the talent to upset the Montana's and Weber State and the inconsistency to lose anyone in the league in the Brick. I have been daring the coaches to prove me wrong, hoping they would, but I can now say with confidence they will not. This team will finish between 6-8th in the league and any major set back like an injury worse. At some point this season we will knock off a top 3 conference leader, only to get shelled in the next game. Again we have top 3 place type talent, but are very poorly coached. Our defense is abhorrent so our only chance is to out score the other team, we can do that when everyone gets hot, but not day in and day out. This is not going to be a great season to be an MSU Men's basketball fan!

Women's
In the preseason I thought Binford's bunch had the chance to dominate the league. I still think they will be in the conference title hunt it is going to be a tough battle to win the conference championship out right. Lundberg I still think is the best player in the league and Squires is also playing like a first team all conference player. They even have some great depth of talent. What is obvious is that they are not playing defense at the high level they were the past few seasons (yet?) and their play at the point guard spot is lacking. Our only experienced true point guard Ashley Van Sickle seems to be injured, Halle Wright has been playing the spot for us with limited success but she is a true freshman. Squires is probably our best bet at the point but her playing the point full time, takes away some of the other things she can do on the floor. I don't think teams will be able to press us as hard as some of our preseason foes did, as the Big Sky is not that athletic, but they will try. To be successful Binford has to make those teams pay for pressing us. I see us battling for the league title but in the end finishing 2nd or 3rd. 1st will come only if we can take our defense up a notch and find a successful answer to point guard position. It also would help if Lundberg stayed out of foul trouble.

What do you guys and Gals think? You don't have to go into as much detail as I do, but where do you think the Bobcat men and women will finish this year.



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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by Ilikecats » Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:35 pm

The men’s team is just playing out the schedule. Doesn’t have the talent or coaching to compete. I thought MSLCAT’s evaluation was generous. Can they win some games? Yes, but they’ll end their season in the first round of the conference tourney. I think they’ll finish 7th in the league.

The Women’s team is a different story. I think the team has talent, but Binford is forgetting that defense wins championships. I don’t think she’s deploying her talent in the proper manner and the lack of focus on defense is hurting the team. Our 3pt defense isn’t up to par and the women close out on threes like its going to expose them to the Flu. We are weak defensively in our backcourt, very strong in the Frontcourt. I agree that we need to try playing Smith and Braxton together for longer periods of time. I’d like to see a starting line up of Wright, Squires, Lundberg, Smith and Braxton. Play more zone defense and let them physically dominate. I know the Big Sky is a guard dominated conference. That’s why I’d make some changes. Our backcourt is a year away from being strong. This lineup change will help cover up our defensive lapses and improve our rebounding. I don’t like the fact that our best defender Blair Braxton comes off the bench. She’s also our leading rebounder. Claire Lundberg is a great player, maybe the best in the conference, but can’t carry the team offensively by herself. If we become inside dominant, (not to mention that Smith and Braxton are currently shooting at a .600 fg) that will open up threes for Martell and Squires. Then teams won’t be able to double Lundberg. Martell is a pure shooter, but Binford had her creating her own shot, which isn’t her strength. She’s a deadly spot up shooter. Her shooting percentage right now is abysmal,because coach is asking her to do to much! Squires is a player! You have to live with the bad shots, but she’s the only guard capable of creating her own shot. She can also be a lock down defender with the right coaching. Smith is our best interior scorer, but not as strong on defense, but her length alters shots. She’s also a strong rebounder. Wright, although a freshman handles the ball well and has improved every game. I think she’s the answer at the point. One thing I like about this starting 5 is that both bigs do a fantastic job of passing!

The concern about playing Smith and Braxton together is valid, let’s be honest, it’s conference time, benches shrink and teams go to rotations with a maximum of 9-10 players seeing the court. Martell, Kuderer, Mocchi and Hilborn have played significant minutes this season. Rotate Lundberg, Smith and Braxton with Kuderer and Mocchi. Move Smith to the 5 when you substitute Braxton.

That’s my read. I think our women’s team has great potential. But the non conference season has been disappointing. Let’s lead with defense and keep our 5 best players on the court! If we make some changes we can win the conference. If we stay like we are today, I say 3-4 in the conference and a second round exit in Boise.



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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by mslacatfan » Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:57 pm

My prediction for the Mens team in league play....

Image

hope I'm wrong.


FTG- GO CATS GO!

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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by Catlady » Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:49 pm

mslacatfan wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:57 pm
My prediction for the Mens team in league play....

Image

hope I'm wrong.
Not sure if I can disagree!



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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by mslacatfan » Fri Dec 28, 2018 4:50 pm

pretty much exactly what the original poster said- the team has enough talent to compete with anyone, but they look poorly coached, and are extremely streaky. The games I have watched... there will be like 10 minute stretches where they look pretty solid, then all of a sudden they go on a 10 minute spurt where it looks like its the first time the team has played or practiced together.

frustrating to watch.


FTG- GO CATS GO!

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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by BelgradeBobcat » Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:49 pm

I'm into this season to watch Tyler Hall break records. Barring injury he'll have the league scoring record sewn up soon.



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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by mslacat » Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:15 pm

BelgradeBobcat wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:49 pm
I'm into this season to watch Tyler Hall break records. Barring injury he'll have the league scoring record sewn up soon.
...and unfortunately Tyler Hall will go down as the player MSU wasted!



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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by Bobcat4Ever » Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:05 am

Women's basketball defense: Nate was our defensive coach. He's moved on. It shows.



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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by ilovethecats » Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:11 am

mslacat wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:15 pm
BelgradeBobcat wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:49 pm
I'm into this season to watch Tyler Hall break records. Barring injury he'll have the league scoring record sewn up soon.
...and unfortunately Tyler Hall will go down as the player MSU wasted!
This has been my feeling as well. To have the talent like that kid on our roster for 4 years and not even make a dent in the conference tourney is maybe my biggest complaint of all my complaints in regards to this staff. But I love Tyler. We had no business having this kid. And I hope he shatters every record in front of him.



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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by Bobcat4Ever » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:27 pm

ilovethecats wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:11 am
mslacat wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:15 pm
BelgradeBobcat wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:49 pm
I'm into this season to watch Tyler Hall break records. Barring injury he'll have the league scoring record sewn up soon.
...and unfortunately Tyler Hall will go down as the player MSU wasted!
This has been my feeling as well. To have the talent like that kid on our roster for 4 years and not even make a dent in the conference tourney is maybe my biggest complaint of all my complaints in regards to this staff. But I love Tyler. We had no business having this kid. And I hope he shatters every record in front of him.
:goodpost:



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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by BobcatDel » Sun Dec 30, 2018 8:16 pm

mslacat wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:04 pm
Well the Conference season gears up starting tomorrow. We have seen the pre-season so I guess it is finally time for predictions for the games that really count. Conference! Here is my take.

Men
This team has the talent to upset the Montana's and Weber State and the inconsistency to lose anyone in the league in the Brick. I have been daring the coaches to prove me wrong, hoping they would, but I can now say with confidence they will not. This team will finish between 6-8th in the league and any major set back like an injury worse. At some point this season we will knock off a top 3 conference leader, only to get shelled in the next game. Again we have top 3 place type talent, but are very poorly coached. Our defense is abhorrent so our only chance is to out score the other team, we can do that when everyone gets hot, but not day in and day out. This is not going to be a great season to be an MSU Men's basketball fan!

Women's
In the preseason I thought Binford's bunch had the chance to dominate the league. I still think they will be in the conference title hunt it is going to be a tough battle to win the conference championship out right. Lundberg I still think is the best player in the league and Squires is also playing like a first team all conference player. They even have some great depth of talent. What is obvious is that they are not playing defense at the high level they were the past few seasons (yet?) and their play at the point guard spot is lacking. Our only experienced true point guard Ashley Van Sickle seems to be injured, Halle Wright has been playing the spot for us with limited success but she is a true freshman. Squires is probably our best bet at the point but her playing the point full time, takes away some of the other things she can do on the floor. I don't think teams will be able to press us as hard as some of our preseason foes did, as the Big Sky is not that athletic, but they will try. To be successful Binford has to make those teams pay for pressing us. I see us battling for the league title but in the end finishing 2nd or 3rd. 1st will come only if we can take our defense up a notch and find a successful answer to point guard position. It also would help if Lundberg stayed out of foul trouble.

What do you guys and Gals think? You don't have to go into as much detail as I do, but where do you think the Bobcat men and women will finish this year.

Men:

I don’t know what to think… kinda Jekyll and Hyde. I don’t have a lot of reason for optimism. Everyone seems to have given up on them but then they confound me with two well-played games against Southern Utah and Washington State. So maybe they will surprise us. I certainly can’t forecast an upper tier performance but if they can stay playing at a high level… well one can only hope…. and I would be elated if they could pull it off….Tyler deserves a good send off/final season.


Women:

I said it on another thread and will repeat it here. Pre-season ended up about what I expected and I won’t go into that reasoning again. They will be middle of the pack team this year and will have had a very good season if they end up at #4 or #5. They will have a winning record and certainly will not be bottom feeders. My reasons; first, the competition in the league this year and second, our team performance and maturity so far.

On the competition:

Northern Colorado, the reigning champion, was 5-4 and playing well in the preseason with notable wins over Colorado State, Southern Methodist, and Denver with only a five point loss to LSU and eight point loss to Colorado. They return three seniors and three juniors including Savannah Smith, a two-time Big Sky 1st team performer and last year league MVP. They have been averaging about 39% from the field and 31% from 3pt land. A wild card here is that they have a new head coach and I don’t know if their team is adjusting to a new style of play or knows the Big Sky well (haven’t researched her).

Portland State, returns four seniors. They finished out the preseason at 8-1 with notable wins over UNLV, San Jose St. and UTEP. They have four girls scoring in double figures now. The Bolston girl was a candidate for league MVP, finished 2nd team Big Sky and is pre-season 1st team Big Sky selection. Reilly girl was 2nd team Big Sky and is also under consideration for pre-season 1st team Big Sky. They are “BIG”. The West girl, 6’4” averaged 10 points, 8 rebounds last year and led the league in blocks. They have 6”3” Jurhar girl who is not up to the level of West and they have added a JC transfer in Stotler who is 6”4”, was the Northwest Athletic Conference MVP and set league blocking records two consecutive years. They have been shooting 42% from the field and 32% from 3-point range. Their coach, Kennedy is building this program to be one of the best in the Big Sky and is attracting some great talent… they have shown steady improvement since his arrival… I expect a championship out of him soon.

(Sidenote: If you can watch, Portland State plays Northern Colorado on New Year’s eve. I would like to watch but probably will be dining and imbibing after catching the first half of Bobcat girls game.)

Idaho finished the preseason at 3-6 but they played a lot of up games with losses to Cal State, Stanford, Boise St., Gonzaga, Hawaii, and Wyoming and had a notable win against Texas Tech. They return three seniors and several good juniors. They have been averaging about 40% FG and 35% from 3 pt range. The Ferenz girl is a TWO time 1st team Big Sky performer, led the Big Sky in scoring the last TWO years, is a pre-season 1st team and MVP nominee for this year. She was Top 10 in the NCAA in scoring, field goals and 3 point shots made (shoots about 40% from 3 point range). The Pierce girl is also a preseason 1st team nominee. She currently holds the Big Sky record for 3 pt shots made at 318 and shoots over 40% from that range. She was 2nd in the NCAA last year in 3 pt shots made. (Sidebar: I chuckle at those who say we should double up with the “bigs” inside and play zone… because if I was Idaho and had these two girls I would sit back and let them shoot all night long and just walk out to deposit the money in the bank). Interesting that they have both the Klinker girls, Lizzy and Natalie, from Fairfield, on the roster who averaged 16 points and 20 points respectively in high school. They seem to be averaging 6 to 7 points a game in the preseason. A lot of good things to build on with this team.


On Us:

I love the team and love the girls but we are not playing at the caliber to be a top tier performer and I don’t believe we will get there against the league this year.

We are basically a one-person show on offense right now with Lundberg carrying us. If I was to defend the Cats, I would put my best defensive person on Lundberg like glue all over the court while letting other defenders sag into the middle because no one else can shoot. Everyone likes an inside-outside game but we have no “outside” game so why would an opponent guard us out there? Right now only Lundberg is shooting over 35% from beyond the arc and everyone else is less than 30%..... compare that to the last two years… again, kicks and giggles… what was the lowest shooting percentage from beyond the arc last year for Caudill, Hachard, Junkermeir, Squires, Pranger, Martell (answer: Hachard at 33% and everyone else was over 36% so you had to defend outside which opens up the inside).

Right now we are standing around a bit flat-footed on offense. I would like to see more movement. More screening away from the ball would be nice… SDSU was a good example. I hear what folks are saying on defense but I am seeing improvement, aren’t you? Contrary to some, I don’t think the “big” lineup is the answer as we are already outrebounding the opponents and teams will press, run us to death and anybody that can shoot will kill us in a zone (especially if this really is a “guard dominated conference). And as mentioned above, unless we improve the outside offense, teams will learn to plug up the middle quickly on defense. There will be games when we need all the “bigs” in but not every game.. this is not an absolute… you adjust your line-up depending on the other team.

I sound very negative on the ladies but I am not. There is a lot of upside in my opinion. At times this season, we have had anywhere from 4 to 5 players on the court at the same time that have never played together in league or on the same team before. For some, it is their first time playing at this level. If the right chemistry and leadership develops on the team, they can make some big strides and gel right about tournament time! Now that would be perfect!



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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by iaafan » Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:10 pm

If Ricketts keeps producing I see a 12-6 record for MSU.

The women have me scratching my head. Jeckyl and Hyde routine. I think they’re more Jeckyl. 14-4.



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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by wapiti » Mon Dec 31, 2018 2:06 pm

I thought this thread was going to be a prediction for how the entire conference may pan out.

But I will do that anyway.

Based on how the OOC went and the first round of IC (Inside Conference):

1. UM
2. BBQ
After 1 and 2 it becomes a muddled mess that is hard to predict.
3. PSU
4. ISU
5. NC
6. MSU
7. Sac
8. SUU
9. NAU
10. EWU
11. UI

Other than 1 and 2, is the Big Sky really that bad in Basketball?????

I like our chances to take anywhere from 3rd to 11th.



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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by wapiti » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:03 am

wapiti wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 2:06 pm
I thought this thread was going to be a prediction for how the entire conference may pan out.

But I will do that anyway.

Based on how the OOC went and the first round of IC (Inside Conference):

1. UM
2. BBQ
After 1 and 2 it becomes a muddled mess that is hard to predict.
3. PSU
4. ISU
5. NC
6. MSU
7. Sac
8. SUU
9. NAU
10. EWU
11. UI

Other than 1 and 2, is the Big Sky really that bad in Basketball?????

I like our chances to take anywhere from 3rd to 11th.
Now that two IC games have completed.

The Cats are Jekyll and Hyde.

Just because we thumped SUU at their place does not mean we will beat them in the Brick or in the conference tourney.
We really had no business losing to NAU, but we found a way to do just that.



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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by John K » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:46 pm

iaafan wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:10 pm
If Ricketts keeps producing I see a 12-6 record for MSU.

The women have me scratching my head. Jeckyl and Hyde routine. I think they’re more Jeckyl. 14-4.
The BSC is playing a 20 game conference schedule this season. I don't expect either the men or the women to do that well though, even if you just added 2 losses for both of them, for the 2 additional conference games.



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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by iaafan » Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:23 am

John K wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:46 pm
iaafan wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:10 pm
If Ricketts keeps producing I see a 12-6 record for MSU.

The women have me scratching my head. Jeckyl and Hyde routine. I think they’re more Jeckyl. 14-4.
The BSC is playing a 20 game conference schedule this season. I don't expect either the men or the women to do that well though, even if you just added 2 losses for both of them, for the 2 additional conference games.
Thanks. In that case I’ll go with 13-7, 15-5.



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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by MSmith1968 » Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:07 am

iaafan wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:10 pm
If Ricketts keeps producing I see a 12-6 record for MSU.

The women have me scratching my head. Jeckyl and Hyde routine. I think they’re more Jeckyl. 14-4.
I think Ricketts is a huge key, but I will say it again, he has to find away to stay on the floor. He is lost on defense.



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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by WalkOn79 » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:49 am

I'm a little more optimistic about that men than most. I think top 4 is well within their reach.


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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by John K » Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:38 am

WalkOn79 wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:49 am
I'm a little more optimistic about that men than most. I think top 4 is well within their reach.
I have to admit that I also find myself wanting to be cautiously optimistic, because the men have actually looked pretty good through the first 4 conference games. I also remember that we started out 4-0 in conference last year, and then went only 2-12 the rest of the way. I've seen this movie too many times, and it always ends the same. I don't think I'm alone in being fairly cautious/pessimistic/realistic, in assessing our prospects for the rest of the conference schedule, despite the relatively strong start. When it comes to MBB, I'll have to "see it to believe it", after so many years of promising starts in conference play, followed by epic collapses during the 2nd half of the BSC schedule. But hey, maybe this is the year that it really will be different...ya never know.

On a side note, I love that all the conference games are on Pluto TV again this year. Win or lose, being able to watch the games on TV, has really helped to keep me more interested in both the men's and women's programs the last couple seasons. One thing I find kind of annoying about their broadcasts though, is that they replay every single made basket by MSU. Just show the live action, unless the basket or the pass that led to the basket was spectacular, or at least a bit out of the ordinary in some way.



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Re: Fan's Prediction - Conference

Post by RickRund » Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:34 pm

John K wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:38 am
WalkOn79 wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:49 am
I'm a little more optimistic about that men than most. I think top 4 is well within their reach.
I have to admit that I also find myself wanting to be cautiously optimistic, because the men have actually looked pretty good through the first 4 conference games. I also remember that we started out 4-0 in conference last year, and then went only 2-12 the rest of the way. I've seen this movie too many times, and it always ends the same. I don't think I'm alone in being fairly cautious/pessimistic/realistic, in assessing our prospects for the rest of the conference schedule, despite the relatively strong start. When it comes to MBB, I'll have to "see it to believe it", after so many years of promising starts in conference play, followed by epic collapses during the 2nd half of the BSC schedule. But hey, maybe this is the year that it really will be different...ya never know.

On a side note, I love that all the conference games are on Pluto TV again this year. Win or lose, being able to watch the games on TV, has really helped to keep me more interested in both the men's and women's programs the last couple seasons. One thing I find kind of annoying about their broadcasts though, is that they replay every single made basket by MSU. Just show the live action, unless the basket or the pass that led to the basket was spectacular, or at least a bit out of the ordinary in some way.
YES, and especially to the replay comment...



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