Basketball Season is starting sooner than you think Preview

[mslacat]

Part 1

So a week and ½ ago I started on this post, then I go side tracked and I saved it to a word document and continued bang away on it off and on since then. Now I am almost too embarrassed to post it is 5 fricken pages long! The way my mind works is I need to see things drawn out or written on paper to see what is ****** and what is actually something worth anything. What we have below is my look at what could be a very promising but very complicated season for the Bobcat men’s basketball team. Fish is going to have to make some hard choices and people could be upset. This is stream of consciousness put down on paper and then changed edited a few time. I learned a lot putting it together. Also don’t take this as Bob’s all knowing I am telling you how it’s going to be. It is a work in process. If you disagree with anything let me know. We all see things differently and I learn a hell of a lot from people who disagree with me (Except when it comes to Trump). My opinions and thoughts a frick’n lot of them and I am guessing I will need to break this up to multiple posts.

Well the Bobcat men’s basketball first preseason game is a little less than a month away and I am pretty bored, so I thought I might look at who might be our starters or major players for next year. To review in 2017-18 we return all 5 starters (who played the 2nd half of conference). Our only lose, player wise was our do everything 6th man 6-3 guard Quinton Everett. That does hurt but we have a lot of new players, to replace him and even give us more depth. We have two D-1 6-6 forwards transfers, Konner Frey and Keljin Blevins both of who were starters for their previous teams. Additionally we have to incoming freshman 6-3 SG Isaac Bonton and 6-1 PG Lassi Nikkarinen who should contribute from the get go, I even think Bonton, if he can get enough minutes in this guard deep roster could make a run for MSU 3rd straight freshman of the year. On paper that looks like a pretty good recipe for success but MSU is going to have to overcome its major problems from last year: #1 lack of any size in its top 8-9 players, and #2: it tendency to spot opposing teams 10 extra fouls/free-throws a game.

Last year starters

Tyler Hall 6-4 SG: Not a lot to say here, everyone knows he be the guy this year, will lead the team in scoring and will be the guy all opposing teams will try to stop. The scary thing is you know from how hard he works he will be even better than last year. One thought I did have is that he will have more help scoring the ball this year so you might see a small dip in his 23.1 scoring average, while his other stats and shooting percentages may continue to improve. One area I continue to hear the coaches’ talk about him improving is his ability/willingness to drive to the hoop. Watch this winter.
Odds to start this year: Will start either Shooting Guard or Small Forward

Harald Frey 6-2 PG: The reigning BSC Freshman of the year with no one on the roster who appears capable of knocking him out of the starting point guard spot. He needs to avoid the sophomore slump, people will be gunning for him this year, and ne needs to take his game up a notch like Hall did after his freshman year. He got better and better as the season went on and was playing his best ball as the season ended. Needs to pick up from where he left off last season. He also showed some inconsistency in his shooting at times especially on long road trips needs to work that out.
Odds to start this year: Will start at Point Guard

Sam Neumann 6-7 C(5): I really thought Sam was going to have a break out year in 16-17 based on what I was hearing from Fish, but I did not expect it to as our starting center. I would have expected a player who was recruited as a wing to have a problem with being moved to center, but he didn’t and got better as the season went on. With another summer under his belt it would not surprise me if he was our most improved player again for 2017-18. That said I am not locking him 100% at the 5(or even the 4) spot. If Fish continues to want to play the 4 guard lineup I think a battle could arise between him Konner Frey and Keljin Blevins. That said I think Neumann will start at the 5 with Kirby or Osayande backing him up with Frey & Blevins manning the PF 4 spot.
Odds to start this year: Almost a lock at 85%

Zach Green 6-5 SG/SF: Zach has been a starter since midway through his freshman year, but if Fish moves away from the 4 guard line up to get some more beef inside he could be in a big battle with Devonte Kline. Zach is a better player for the Bobcats at the small forward spot than the power forward spot and his stats bear that out. From the 3 spot he is capable of explosive scoring nights, plus he is also a very good defender against other wings. I also think he is very good at creating space when he plays on the floor with Hall. When Green is on the floor I think the offence is a little more explosive, but we do not lose much in defense. There also is the chance Fish goes with a 4 guard set to start in which case there might not be a battle.
Odds to start this year: 55%

Devonte Kline 6-3 SG: Like I said above Kline and Green may be in a decent battle for a starting spot, but both will be playing major minutes and together a lot this season. Devonte was recruited as a defensive stopper by Fish and by conference time was just that for the Bobcats. He also though proved in a couple games he could be an explosive scorer. He averaged 8 points a game in conference (up from 6 in the preseason). Fish likes having a lock down defender in his starting lineup. A big time scoring guard seems to be common place among the elite Big Sky Conf. team and if Fish can take that away from the start I think he is willing to give up some offensive explosiveness. If he can prove to be that explosive scorer that we saw late last season there will be no battle and he will be a lock to start.
Odds to start this year: Almost a lock at 55%

[mslacat]

Part #2

The new guys

Konner Frey 6-6 F: Frey is finally eligible for his final year of eligibility. Frey is a strong scorer and for his size a strong rebounder. He was hampered by a pretty serious injury early last season but I have heard he came back strong and has been a beast in the weight room. He comes into this season as a player who fills a very strong need in the Bobcats line up (although I wish he was an inch or two taller). So in my mind I think it will be very difficult to keep him out of the starting lineup, unless Green and Kline come back from summer 100% improved, I think one of them may be losing their starting spot. That said Frey is a natural small forward but I definitely see him playing the 4 spot. The only other possibility I could see is if Frey, Kline and Green clearly out play Sam Neumann and Fish decide to go really small with by playing Konner Frey at the 5 and Sam comes off the bench. Konner will see some time at the small forward spot also, especially if Kirby, Osayande and/or Shultz can prove they are worthy of major minutes. The only real knock I have heard about Konner is that he tends to be a black hole when it comes to the basketball. Ball goes into him it never comes out. If we though can get some solid inside scoring from him it could really force defenses to play Hall and Harald Frey more honest.

Keljin Blevins 6-6 F: Blevins is in the same boat at Konner Frey is a natural small forward who could play significant minutes next year at the 4 spot. While Konner Frey is has the reputation as an offensive weapon Blevins has equally strong reputation as a defensive guy with long arms and pretty good athleticism. I have heard one of the reasons he transferred was the So. Miss had him pegged as their defensive stopper and he wanted to prove he had some offensive skills also. I think he has an outside chance to start over Konner Frey at the 4 for the single reason he can play tough defense. Fish loves to have a defensive stopper on the floor. If Blevins prove he can get the job done on offence adequately, I could see an outside chance of him starting him for defensive purposes.

Isaac Bonton 6-3 G: Bonton has the kind of talent to give MSU to give its third consecutive freshman of the year, BUT things are not going to be as easy for him as they were for Frey and Hall. There is not starting spot open for him to waltz in and take it, as a matter of fact he could really have to fight for playing time despite being able to play the three backcourt/wing positions. Returning to the Bobcats line up this year are 5 guard/wings who all saw significant minutes last season. The Bobcats also have 2 transfer forwards who will be looking for some time at the wing. Finally Fish recruited another freshman PG who is already penciled in to back-up Frey. It is going to interesting to see how he progresses and how many minutes he can earn from all those other players. Bonton has the talent and athleticism to make an immediate impact. He has one ability that this team has sorely lacked since Colbert graduation, and that is to drive the lane dish to an open player or score the ball in a variety of ways, and draw a foul. He is a huge scoring threat for sure averaging over 34 points a game and lead all Oregon 5A players in rebounds, assists and top 5 in steals, so he is more than just a scorer. His best games were always against the best competition when his team needed him. So the question comes can he take enough minutes from Mvuezolo, Kline’s, Blevins Nikkarinen and/or Green to get enough playing time to even compete for FOY. If I was the head coach, everyone was healthy, and it looked like Bonton might only get 10-14 minutes a game I might consider redshirting him and save a year of eligibility. I realistically do not see that happening but I do see him getting 15-20 minutes a game and a player or two mentioned above getting significantly less minutes that they did last year.

Lassi Nikkarinen 6-1 PG: Based on what Fish has already said he is counting on Lassi to be a big contributor this as Frey’s back up. Again based on what Fish has said it also would not surprise me to see Lassi and Frey on the court at the same time when Hall is on the bench. Well at least that is the plan/concept. Fish with his last scholarship for 2017 wanted a point guard who could back up Frey and who could be a 3 point scoring threat from deep three point range. That is what he signed Lassi for. So far this summer I have seen Lassi play in about 5 Finland U20 games. Based on those games my impression is that he is more of a lane driver, dish or score the ball guy than a 3 point shooter. In the 5 games I bet you he has only taken 6-7 three point shots and is hitting about 30%. He is an excellent point guard, who plays a physical type of defense annoys players and gets 3-4 steal a game. He is also great at slashing and feeding the post players with quick pin point passing. So I told you what the plan is, but if Lassi shooting is lacking, he opens the door big time for Bonton, because then they are pretty much the same player. One a little better PG the other a much better scorer.

Luke Shultz 6-10 C: I am just going to be strait with you on Shultz, I am down playing his skills some as a freshman and assuming that he will need a year to adjust to the D-1 level, and my #1 candidate for a redshirt. That said boy he has the skills to prove me wrong. I think Kirby or Osayande is going to back up the center spot leaving Shultz to battle for garbage time minutes on a team that does not play a true center. Again see Shultz being a strong possibility for a Redshirt, especially since I can still see Fish playing 4 guards at time as he did last year. To avoid that I think he needs to beat out Kirby for playing time, not impossible. All that said, I think Shultz has the talent to prove me wrong, if he could make a significant contribution this year he could give this team a dimension we have not had in the Fish era.

Returnees

Joe Mvuezolo 6-6: Joe was brought in a year ago to be a 3 point scorer and offensive threat off the bench. Unfortunately he was a hot a cold performer for the Bobcats starting the season, but the coaches really worked on him (putting it nicely) to improve his shot selection. I though he steady improved enough that I thought he could be an instant offence player off the bench in conference. Then he had his heart problems that really took a lot of wind out of his progress. When he came back it took him some time to get back his shooting but still he had a couple nice games at the end of the season. With Fish recruiting another 3 point shooter Lassi Nikkarinen I think he was hedging his bets for 2017-18. If Joe comes back strong, improves his shooting selection and brings some consistency he could be a valuable offensive 6th man for the Bobcats especially when Hall leaves the floor. If not I think Bonton, Nikkarinen and others could put him deep down the bench.

Benson Osayande 6-9: Benson was our most consistent post player after Neumann last year, but he still had a lot of ups and down. He had a handful of double digit scoring games with some nice rebounding but unfortunately at time it was all he could do to stay on the floor and out of foul trouble. At 200lbs (very generous), he also got manhandle by the other true posts. Still he did get better, some, as the season went on. Unfortunately so did Devin Kirby and by the last 5 games of the season Devin had moved ahead of him in the depth chart. I have heard from multiple reports that the coaches have really got him to buy into the weight room this summer and has put on a little weight, but is much stronger now. Benson plays mostly center for the Bobcat but can play the 4 spot. If he can play enough minutes, stay productive and stay out of foul trouble, he can make a difference and give the Bobcats some size in the lineup. Imagine one of our big guys at center; 6-7 Neumann at the 4; 6-6 K. Frey at the 3; 6-5 Hall at the 2 and 6-2 Frey at the 1, now we have a big line-up that can match up with bigger line ups in the league.

Devin Kirby 6-10: Kirby looked lost at the beginning of the season, but the coaches kept prodding and giving him meaningful but limited minutes each game. He started out playing pretty passive and the coaches had to get him to aggressively look for his shot and take it when open. In my opinion he was probably one of the most improved players on the team from November to March. By the end of the last half of the season he had moved ahead Osayande in the depth chart backing up Neumann. Over the last 5 games he averaged about .35 points and .33 rebounds per minutes played. That would equal about 7 points and 6.5 rebounds over an extended 20 minute period. I would love to get those stats from our backup center. Kirby had problems with foul trouble earlier in the season but by the end he seemed to have it under control. I have not heard any reports but if Kirby took the weight room serious this summer put on a little weight (I am not a proponent of big men putting a lot of weight on quickly) and got stronger I could see him being our first big man off the bench. With the amount of talent we have in our other 10 players I really do not see the Bobcats being able to give significant minutes to all three Big Men (Osayande, Kirby and Shultz). Osayande is a senior and I really don’t see him being redshirted but I could see either Kirby or Shultz being redshirted.

[mslacat]

My Pre-Canadian trip starting line up Guess
Pos. -Starter --- Reserves
PG H. Frey ---------#2 Lassi Nikkarinen (status quo)
SG D. Kline --------#2 I. Bonton (Fish gives the defensive stopper the edge over Green)
SF T. Hall ---------#2 Z. Green ---#3 J. Mvuezolo (Bonton & Nikkarian youth movement moved Joe down the bench)
PF K. Frey --------#2 Keljin Blevins (Fish goes with offence to give Hall scoring help)
C S. Neumann ---#2 Devin Kirby ---#3 Osayande (Kirby continues to improve)

RS Luke Shultz (an offensive star waiting in the wings)

With my starting lineup guess above you have to remember that the majority of the players can play multiple positions, so just because I have someone 2 #2 does not mean that I think they will necessarily be the first player if the starter comes out, it is just depth at that position. Example with the above starting lineup I would project that Green would be the first person off the bench if either Kline OR Hall needed to come out. Kline leaves, Hall slides to guard Green in at the wing.

We were very short on depth last year and it caused us all sorts of problems especially when it was foul related. We can go 10-11 deep this year and Fish has said he use his depth. That means folks like Hall (35 min/gm last year) and H. Fey (33 min/gm last year) might see a slight reduction in minutes (and I mean slight) to enable Fish to keep them fresher in conference. I think we will have a couple more potent scoring options to help out Hall and Frey also. On the other hand, unless I am completely under estimating our 3 big men I still think we will be one of the smaller team in conference, but that is how the whole conference is trending anyway. The only thing I do not have an answer/projection for is will this team continue to be one of the worst fouling teams in the country. Last year in terms of fouls we ended up ranking 230 out 250 teams for the number of fouls committed per game at about 24 per game. It seemed every game we would just go out and spot the other team 10 fouls shot per game. That’s tough for an undersized team to make up. I know Fish has a plan I just don’t know what it is.

That though is my pre-Canadian trip look at the Bobcat team for next year. Now as I have said before I take no position that I am 100% correct on anything I have written, it is just me opinion as of this time and date. I like it when people (respectfully) disagree with me and have logical thought about why I am wrong or may not be looking at something the same way. I learn a lot from other options so feel free to disagree with me but give me your thought on why and how so I can consider what you say.

[msu_agfan]

Thanks mslacat, wonderful amount of info and speculation to keep this summer from being boring. What is the strategy in Canada? will they play like they always would, or will they try to shake things up, give the new guys more time than normal, or will it be just like the regular season?

[mslacat]

Canada is a great opportunity for us. I give fish a solid look at the team 2 month earlier, so he and the coaches can get to know this team, answer some questions and make some real adjustments to the planned schemes for the season. I remember about 5-6 years back Tinkle took Montana though the tournament and the year before Weber did the same, and both coaches thought it was the key a successful season both had.

If I have read the schedule correctly the Bobcats will play four games in four days against two Canadian team. Each Canadian team will play us twice with a day off between games, the Bobcats get no days off, 4 strait games. Now the level of competition should be that most likely that of an NAIA school possibly D-2. That said by the 4th game the Bobcats could really be dragging. I expect Fish to give everyone solid minutes in each game including Schultz, Kirby and Bonton. To keep legs fresh and get a really good look at all 13 players, I would really try to limit Frey(both), Hall, Neumann, Green and Kline to no more than 20-22 minutes a game. I expect to see Fish really look at going with a big line up at times, with two of Kirby, Osayande and or Shultz just to see how it looks on the floor. My advise to the players would be if you want playing time early in the season, you will get the opportunity to prove you self on this trip. As a side note, I don not think the walk-ons can make this trip. Decisions about redshirting does not have to be made until November, so EVERY scholar-shipped player should play.

[MSU01]

Great stuff mslacat, thanks for putting that together. It's odd but nice to see a projected starting lineup for MSU basketball consisting of 5 returning players for once!

[SACCAT]

The lack of a "True" Center bothers me still about this team, but it seems to work for Golden State. Should be a great year for the Cats....IF they can stay hot from outside.

[mslacat]

The lack of a "True" Center bothers me still about this team, but it seems to work for Golden State. Should be a great year for the Cats....IF they can stay hot from outside.

Could not agree more, but every year it seems the Big Sky Conference is getting smaller and smaller.

[phantom]

Not a lot of "true centers" in college basketball anymore. Better to have a 6'7/6'8 athlete that can run and rebound as opposed to a 6'11 stiff on the floor because he's tall.

[SACCAT]

Not a lot of "true centers" in college basketball anymore. Better to have a 6'7/6'8 athlete that can run and rebound as opposed to a 6'11 stiff on the floor because he's tall.

Gonzaga had the Collins kid from Vegas last year that was 6'11", and he played more of an outside shooting 4. Tall and skinny, but could handle the ball and drive. I agree with you...I just miss the days of a Big down low eating up rebounds and soft touching 4 foot hooks.

I will admit I grew up in a basketball loving family, that hated every time a guard drove the ball and shot.

[91catAlum]

I like this new guy.

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