Week 4 Betting Lines

[ghobs95]

Some interesting numbers on games this week, so thought I'd post a few relevant Big Sky, etc. lines I came across for discussion. Via 5dimes.

Norfolk State @ MONTANA STATE -27
Monmouth @ um -21.5
EWU -9 @ Idaho
UC Davis @ NDSU -25
USD -5.5 @ UNCU
ISU @ NIU -14.5
SUU @ SDSU -28
NAU @ I(llinois)SU -10.5
WV State @ SEMO -29.5

[kennethnoisewater]

Man I'd love to see the Cats win by 27, but that's a big spread for a team that has averaged less than 24 points a game so far.

Does Vegas not like UC Davis??? I know NDSU is next-level, but Davis only lost to Cal by 14. That's incredible. Has there ever been a matchup of two top-four teams that had a spread that big?

I'd expect EWU to cover easily, but maybe I'm wrong on them. I thought last week was a hiccup more than an indication they've slipped. I know Idaho hung with Wyoming, but I'd expect EWU to come out swinging.

Monmouth is getting some votes to be ranked, but I'd be surprised if UM didn't cover 21.5.

[Grizaddict]

Man I'd love to see the Cats win by 27, but that's a big spread for a team that has averaged less than 24 points a game so far.

Does Vegas not like UC Davis??? I know NDSU is next-level, but Davis only lost to Cal by 14. That's incredible. Has there ever been a matchup of two top-four teams that had a spread that big?

I'd expect EWU to cover easily, but maybe I'm wrong on them. I thought last week was a hiccup more than an indication they've slipped. I know Idaho hung with Wyoming, but I'd expect EWU to come out swinging.

Monmouth is getting some votes to be ranked, but I'd be surprised if UM didn't cover 21.5.

Yep Davis played Cal pretty tough. But then they almost lost to San Diego (who got trucked by Cal Poly). Many actually felt San Diego won with 4 seconds on the clock they scored a TD but it was ruled a fumble at goal line recovered by Davis. So I think we are all confused by what Davis is at this point. I won’t be surprised if NDSU bears them by that much.

[kennethnoisewater]

Man I'd love to see the Cats win by 27, but that's a big spread for a team that has averaged less than 24 points a game so far.

Does Vegas not like UC Davis??? I know NDSU is next-level, but Davis only lost to Cal by 14. That's incredible. Has there ever been a matchup of two top-four teams that had a spread that big?

I'd expect EWU to cover easily, but maybe I'm wrong on them. I thought last week was a hiccup more than an indication they've slipped. I know Idaho hung with Wyoming, but I'd expect EWU to come out swinging.

Monmouth is getting some votes to be ranked, but I'd be surprised if UM didn't cover 21.5.

Yep Davis played Cal pretty tough. But then they almost lost to San Diego (who got trucked by Cal Poly). Many actually felt San Diego won with 4 seconds on the clock they scored a TD but it was ruled a fumble at goal line recovered by Davis. So I think we are all confused by what Davis is at this point. I won’t be surprised if NDSU bears them by that much.

I wouldn't be surprised either, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they lost by 5. I'd be incredibly surprised if they actually won in Fargo, but 25 is a bunch, especially when nobody knows what UCD really is right now.

[Prodigal Cat]

Does Vegas not like UC Davis??? I know NDSU is next-level, but Davis only lost to Cal by 14. That's incredible. Has there ever been a matchup of two top-four teams that had a spread that big?

This is a very common view by people that don't know very much about gambling. Oddsmakers don't set lines based of what they think the difference in the game score will be. They set them by what will put them in the least liability standpoint from a ticket count (NDSU bets vs UCD bets). Then, if they get them same number of tickets on both sides they are automatically winning because of the vig(vig or juice, is the cut they take for each bet, if you bet $100, you will win $90.91 with a 110 vig). NDSU is a juggernaught that will always get action so they limit the exposer by putting a large number up. Line setters have gotten beat up over and over again with the Bison covering vs FBS teams (and even outright winning) and also thumping FCS teams. If they set the line at what they actually think it will be... say 17, they will get they a huge flood of NDSU tickets and once again they will have a big liability if the Bison cover. By setting it at 28, betters may stay away or even risk UCD. Either way they wont be in a liability hole, rooting against NDSU.

Occasionally oddsmakers will go ahead and risk taking a side, meaning they think the public is wrong and lets the number get out of balance, but that's rare. Its why lines move. They change them to entice betting on the opposite side.

The spread is big because it's NDSU and they don't want to get burned again. Not because oddsmakers think its a 4 TD game.

[Catfacts]

So what you are saying above is that MSU fans should take Norfolk and the points if they are going to place a bet.

[Common Cat]

Does Vegas not like UC Davis??? I know NDSU is next-level, but Davis only lost to Cal by 14. That's incredible. Has there ever been a matchup of two top-four teams that had a spread that big?

This is a very common view by people that don't know very much about gambling. Oddsmakers don't set lines based of what they think the difference in the game score will be. They set them by what will put them in the least liability standpoint from a ticket count (NDSU bets vs UCD bets). Then, if they get them same number of tickets on both sides they are automatically winning because of the vig(vig or juice, is the cut they take for each bet, if you bet $100, you will win $90.91 with a 110 vig). NDSU is a juggernaught that will always get action so they limit the exposer by putting a large number up. Line setters have gotten beat up over and over again with the Bison covering vs FBS teams (and even outright winning) and also thumping FCS teams. If they set the line at what they actually think it will be... say 17, they will get they a huge flood of NDSU tickets and once again they will have a big liability if the Bison cover. By setting it at 28, betters may stay away or even risk UCD. Either way they wont be in a liability hole, rooting against NDSU.

Occasionally oddsmakers will go ahead and risk taking a side, meaning they think the public is wrong and lets the number get out of balance, but that's rare. Its why lines move. They change them to entice betting on the opposite side.

The spread is big because it's NDSU and they don't want to get burned again. Not because oddsmakers think its a 4 TD game.

I feel a lot smarter after reading this. Thanks!

[Prodigal Cat]

So what you are saying above is that MSU fans should take Norfolk and the points if they are going to place a bet.

No. MSU is hardly NDSU in its ability to draw betting from outside its sphere. People that don't follow FCS football might be willing to place a bet that NDSU will cover because "NDSU always wins." There isn't a huge following of betters that are willing to bet MSU, no matter how big the line, like there is for NDSU.

This is called public teams. New England Patriots are a public team. Alabama Crimson Tide are a public team. New York Yankees are a public team. Dallas Cowboys are a public team. They are teams that either through very large fanbases, or a current history of winning will receive a larger number of tickets(bets) than their opponent on any given week. John Doe walks into a sportsbook and "bets on the Patriots cause they always win". And because the oddsmaker know that the amount of bets they will take on a pubic team will most likely be more than the opponent, no matter what line they set, they will set that line in their favor.

MSU vs Norfolk isn't one of those lines. We don't get a bump because 99.9% bettors out there, this game isn't even on their radar. This isnt true for NDSU.

[Rich K]

Great information! I feel like I've just been let in on a secret that should have been obvious. Thanks!