How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

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How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by Catfanatic84 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:18 pm




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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by Catfanatic84 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:19 pm

Starts Saturday.....PSU is a must win game.



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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by Catsrgrood » Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:47 pm

Agree with most of that. The only thing I’d disagree with is the fact that the writer said the Cats must win AT LEAST 6 of the next 8 to have a shot at the playoffs.

If they win 6 of 8, they’re in. I think it’s more like they need to win at least 5 of 8. A 7-4 record with their tough schedule is a very good resume, as long as the other three losses aren’t too similar to the SDSU loss.

The EWU/Idaho/Weber stretch is going to make or break this season I think. They need to at least go 1-2 in those three, 2-1 would be great and 3-0 I’d be amazed.



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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by onceacat » Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:58 pm

Catsrgrood wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:47 pm
Agree with most of that. The only thing I’d disagree with is the fact that the writer said the Cats must win AT LEAST 6 of the next 8 to have a shot at the playoffs.

If they win 6 of 8, they’re in. I think it’s more like they need to win at least 5 of 8. A 7-4 record with their tough schedule is a very good resume, as long as the other three losses aren’t too similar to the SDSU loss.

The EWU/Idaho/Weber stretch is going to make or break this season I think. They need to at least go 1-2 in those three, 2-1 would be great and 3-0 I’d be amazed.
I'm not sure that the Big Sky's 3-5 record against the MVFC is going to cut it. At 7-4 the Cats are AT BEST a coin flip to go into the playoffs. Depends on who the other 7-4 teams across the country are.

Best just to win 3 of 4 against the tough teams (EWU, WSU, UM, UI) and make sure that there's no doubt that we belong in at 9-2.



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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by Grizaddict » Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:41 am

onceacat wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:58 pm
Catsrgrood wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:47 pm
Agree with most of that. The only thing I’d disagree with is the fact that the writer said the Cats must win AT LEAST 6 of the next 8 to have a shot at the playoffs.

If they win 6 of 8, they’re in. I think it’s more like they need to win at least 5 of 8. A 7-4 record with their tough schedule is a very good resume, as long as the other three losses aren’t too similar to the SDSU loss.

The EWU/Idaho/Weber stretch is going to make or break this season I think. They need to at least go 1-2 in those three, 2-1 would be great and 3-0 I’d be amazed.
I'm not sure that the Big Sky's 3-5 record against the MVFC is going to cut it. At 7-4 the Cats are AT BEST a coin flip to go into the playoffs. Depends on who the other 7-4 teams across the country are.

Best just to win 3 of 4 against the tough teams (EWU, WSU, UM, UI) and make sure that there's no doubt that we belong in at 9-2.
This was McLaughlin’s point. 7-4 gets you in from the MVFC or the CAA, but it’s not as automatic in the Big Sky. If we didn’t go 3-5 vs MVFC, then the Big Sky improves their chance but we blew it. Now the fact there will be so many 8-3 and 7-4 teams nationally, he is saying a it’s more than likely a Big Sky team needs to be 8-3 to make it in. The bad loss to SDSU didn’t help either. If that one is closer the committee takes those into consideration.



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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by 91catAlum » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:12 am

Grizaddict wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:41 am
onceacat wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:58 pm
Catsrgrood wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:47 pm
Agree with most of that. The only thing I’d disagree with is the fact that the writer said the Cats must win AT LEAST 6 of the next 8 to have a shot at the playoffs.

If they win 6 of 8, they’re in. I think it’s more like they need to win at least 5 of 8. A 7-4 record with their tough schedule is a very good resume, as long as the other three losses aren’t too similar to the SDSU loss.

The EWU/Idaho/Weber stretch is going to make or break this season I think. They need to at least go 1-2 in those three, 2-1 would be great and 3-0 I’d be amazed.
I'm not sure that the Big Sky's 3-5 record against the MVFC is going to cut it. At 7-4 the Cats are AT BEST a coin flip to go into the playoffs. Depends on who the other 7-4 teams across the country are.

Best just to win 3 of 4 against the tough teams (EWU, WSU, UM, UI) and make sure that there's no doubt that we belong in at 9-2.
This was McLaughlin’s point. 7-4 gets you in from the MVFC or the CAA, but it’s not as automatic in the Big Sky. If we didn’t go 3-5 vs MVFC, then the Big Sky improves their chance but we blew it. Now the fact there will be so many 8-3 and 7-4 teams nationally, he is saying a it’s more than likely a Big Sky team needs to be 8-3 to make it in. The bad loss to SDSU didn’t help either. If that one is closer the committee takes those into consideration.
Your post is correct about big sky teams in the playoffs. But that's not what the article says. It says "the Bobcats need to win at least six to be in the playoff discussion" which is not exactly true. We need to win 5 to be in the "discussion" and if we win 6 we are in the playoffs without question.


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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by Catsrgrood » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:31 am

91catAlum wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:12 am
Grizaddict wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:41 am
onceacat wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:58 pm
Catsrgrood wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:47 pm
Agree with most of that. The only thing I’d disagree with is the fact that the writer said the Cats must win AT LEAST 6 of the next 8 to have a shot at the playoffs.

If they win 6 of 8, they’re in. I think it’s more like they need to win at least 5 of 8. A 7-4 record with their tough schedule is a very good resume, as long as the other three losses aren’t too similar to the SDSU loss.

The EWU/Idaho/Weber stretch is going to make or break this season I think. They need to at least go 1-2 in those three, 2-1 would be great and 3-0 I’d be amazed.
I'm not sure that the Big Sky's 3-5 record against the MVFC is going to cut it. At 7-4 the Cats are AT BEST a coin flip to go into the playoffs. Depends on who the other 7-4 teams across the country are.

Best just to win 3 of 4 against the tough teams (EWU, WSU, UM, UI) and make sure that there's no doubt that we belong in at 9-2.
This was McLaughlin’s point. 7-4 gets you in from the MVFC or the CAA, but it’s not as automatic in the Big Sky. If we didn’t go 3-5 vs MVFC, then the Big Sky improves their chance but we blew it. Now the fact there will be so many 8-3 and 7-4 teams nationally, he is saying a it’s more than likely a Big Sky team needs to be 8-3 to make it in. The bad loss to SDSU didn’t help either. If that one is closer the committee takes those into consideration.
Your post is correct about big sky teams in the playoffs. But that's not what the article says. It says "the Bobcats need to win at least six to be in the playoff discussion" which is not exactly true. We need to win 5 to be in the "discussion" and if we win 6 we are in the playoffs without question.
Yes, that’s all my point was, at 7-4 the Cats are in the discussion. Not automatic by any means, but absolutely in the discussion. 8-3 and they’re in, in my opinion. The article makes it sound like they’re not in the discussion at 7-4 and 8-3 is the bare minimum to have a shot.

The way the losses happen will have a big factor also. If they go 7-4 and all 4 losses are like SDSU, they’re not in. If they go 7-4 and the other 3 losses are by a single score? I think they’d be in at that point, we’ll see though. A lot of games yet to be played.



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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by cats2506 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:36 am

7-4 will get us in 98% of the time, there isn't that many teams with 7 D1 wins at the end of the year (remember we have a 24 team field now days).
with our schedule we will have a better resume at 7-4 than almost any team with 7 D1 wins.

With 24 teams the problem for the selection committee is to not allow any team with 6 D1 wins that isn't an autobid.

Also while the BSC went 3-5 against the MVC, MSU went 1-1 against the MVC. The SDSU game looks bad but they are a good team and will likely be seeded at the end, also MSU's qb was getting his first start in that game.


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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by 91catAlum » Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:51 am

cats2506 wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:36 am
7-4 will get us in 98% of the time, there isn't that many teams with 7 D1 wins at the end of the year (remember we have a 24 team field now days).
with our schedule we will have a better resume at 7-4 than almost any team with 7 D1 wins.

With 24 teams the problem for the selection committee is to not allow any team with 6 D1 wins that isn't an autobid.

Also while the BSC went 3-5 against the MVC, MSU went 1-1 against the MVC. The SDSU game looks bad but they are a good team and will likely be seeded at the end, also MSU's qb was getting his first start in that game.
Last year, EWU was 7-4 and wasn't selected for playoffs. And in the last 3-4 years, there's been at least 1, maybe 2, MVFC teams to get in with an at-large bid at 6-5.
Just saying, it happens.

AND as GA pointed out, the griz were also 7-4 last year and missed the playoffs. TWO big sky teams missed the playoffs at 7-4, in the same year.
Last edited by 91catAlum on Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.


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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by DriscollCat » Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:00 pm

I think this subject isn't settled just yet. With North Dakota's win over then #5 Sam Houston State (and 1 point loss to FBS Bowling Green), there will be more to the story. IMHO, the number of playoff spots that the BSC get should depend on how the BSC does against ND as long as SHSU finishes the season well.



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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by Montanabob » Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:05 pm

cats2506 wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:36 am
7-4 will get us in 98% of the time, there isn't that many teams with 7 D1 wins at the end of the year (remember we have a 24 team field now days).
with our schedule we will have a better resume at 7-4 than almost any team with 7 D1 wins.

With 24 teams the problem for the selection committee is to not allow any team with 6 D1 wins that isn't an autobid.

Also while the BSC went 3-5 against the MVC, MSU went 1-1 against the MVC. The SDSU game looks bad but they are a good team and will likely be seeded at the end, also MSU's qb was getting his first start in that game.
That loss can be mitigated if we get Rovig to excel in the rest of the games he plays QB or Andersen comes alive with his arm and scores big through the air. Either way, they look at the loss in a better light if the offense is devastating in the BSC the rest of the year.


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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by CelticCat » Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:31 pm

With the FCS it's so much of a what have you done lately when it comes time to choose between 2 or 3 7-4 teams for the playoffs. EWU lost 2 of their last 4 (though they won their final 2). I still think they deserved to be in, but their most impressive wins were Sac and UM, two non-playoff teams. They got crushed by NDSU and SUU, and lost to Weber - the final two were the first 2 of their last 4.

At 7-4 I don't know who our most impressive win would be, but we'd likely be coming in winning at least 3 of our last 4 in that scenario, which would help.


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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by Grizaddict » Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:05 pm

CelticCat wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:31 pm
With the FCS it's so much of a what have you done lately when it comes time to choose between 2 or 3 7-4 teams for the playoffs. EWU lost 2 of their last 4 (though they won their final 2). I still think they deserved to be in, but their most impressive wins were Sac and UM, two non-playoff teams. They got crushed by NDSU and SUU, and lost to Weber - the final two were the first 2 of their last 4.

At 7-4 I don't know who our most impressive win would be, but we'd likely be coming in winning at least 3 of our last 4 in that scenario, which would help.
Good post. The Griz sat home at 7-4 last year as well. They did not have a very tough schedule, and they were coming off a loss to the cats so they did not deserve to be in the field. One could also argue if the cats are 7-4 but coming off of a loss to the Griz, that probably keeps them home too. Could get very interesting if the brawl of the wild has playoff implications for both teams



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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by Cat4LifeHouseDivided » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:20 pm

Good discussion here. 7-4 is always a toss up but plenty of 7-4 teams have gotten in before. I think an all-FCS schedule really helps us. Also, I am surprised nobody has take a shot at the article calling Hauck and the Griz an emerging powerhouse after 3 games.



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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by DriscollCat » Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:36 pm

Idaho shouldn’t be a problem.

Thank God we don’t play Davis.



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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by cats2506 » Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:38 pm

DriscollCat wrote:
Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:36 pm
Idaho shouldn’t be a problem.

Thank God we don’t play Davis.
I'm kinda thinking the same thing, I wasn't buying into the UCD hype but its looking like they might be for real.


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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by Cledus » Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:39 pm

DriscollCat wrote:
Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:36 pm
Idaho shouldn’t be a problem.

Thank God we don’t play Davis.
I was thinking the same thing about Idaho. They've completely given up.


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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by AFCAT » Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:51 pm

Cledus wrote:
Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:39 pm
DriscollCat wrote:
Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:36 pm
Idaho shouldn’t be a problem.

Thank God we don’t play Davis.
I was thinking the same thing about Idaho. They've completely given up.
Sheesh 44-14 in the 4th quarter. Maybe Idaho should have stayed an FBS team.


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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by DriscollCat » Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:14 pm

All of a sudden, I am much more optimistic about our path to the playoffs.



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Re: How the Cats Conference Schedule Affects Playoff Chances

Post by DriscollCat » Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:54 pm

DriscollCat wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:00 pm
I think this subject isn't settled just yet. With North Dakota's win over then #5 Sam Houston State (and 1 point loss to FBS Bowling Green), there will be more to the story. IMHO, the number of playoff spots that the BSC get should depend on how the BSC does against ND as long as SHSU finishes the season well.
ISU just beat ND. This could be really good for the conference.



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