Path to the Playoffs

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Path to the Playoffs

Post by Catprint » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:24 pm

Pathway to Playoffs

I suppose some will consider this thread premature. Frankly, it is but hope springs eternal. I see lots of optimism among hard core fans and it is the third year of coach Choate’s tenure and besides - a second night game leaves me nothing to do Saturday afternoon. And while the Cats had a losing season last year, we all know two plays at the end of two games (4th down play against KSU and 2 point try at NAU) going differently would have put the Cats on a 5 game win streak and 7-4 for the season, certainly at the cusp of a playoff bid last year. So here goes a thread I intend to update each week until it no longer applies – hopefully after week 12.

Captain Obvious Observations:
• We need to win 2 of 3 non-conference games. (One reason I waited until after week 1 to post!)
• We have to protect home field and lose no more than one at home
• We have to win at least 2 road games, likely 3.
• We have to win the expected games. No room to drop one easy game.
• We have to win 2 or 3 of the tough games (1 down!)
• Due to the strength of the Big Sky and the respect the CAA and MVFC get from the playoff committee, we have to be no worse than 3rd or 4th in the Big Sky final standings. Big Sky will get no more than 4 bids!
• Key players have to stay healthy.
• We need have success on defense against the pass happy QB’s (SDSU, EWU, WSU, ISU, etc).
• We need some help against teams we don’t play (UCD, SUU, NAU) to reduce the jam at the top.
• We have to beat the Griz.

So now that I have dispensed with the basics, here is the path as I see it. Feel free to concur, object or modify. These are NOT my predictions but rather a path to make the playoffs.

DATE...........GAME........Resulted Needed.................................Record...........Comment/Actual Result
Week 1.........WIU..........Win at Home......................................1-0................Won a close one
Week 2.........SDSU.........Loss is ok but not a blowout...................1-1
Week 3.........Wagner.......Strong win........................................2-1
Week 4.........PSU...........Win – stronger is better.........................3-1
Week 5.........EWU..........Loss - We have to win 1 of 2-UI or EW........3-2
Week 6.........UI.............Win – Hope Idaho is not a patsy................4-2
Week 7.........OPEN
Week 8.........Weber........Win this or UM – loss here......................4-3
Week 9.........ISU............Win................................................5-3
Week 10.......CalPoly........Big Win............................................6-3
Week 11.......NCU...........Big Win............................................7-3
Week 12.......UM.............Win................................................8-3

Pros to our case for a bid
• 8-3
• 4 game win streak at end
• Played 6 teams rated at start of season and go 3-3
• Win some close games
Cons to our case for a bid
• Could still be 4th or 5th in Big Sky
• We don’t play SUU or NAU or SAC
• Idaho might turn out to be a patsy
• Poor resume in the last few years won’t give us the extra respect in the committee

Finally, we might be able to sneak in at 7-4 but lack of strength last few years and strength of other conferences makes that unlikley.

Thoughts?



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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by 91catAlum » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:31 pm

Good breakdown. But we dont need to present a case if we go 8-3. We're 100% in if we go 8-3. I dont think there's ever been a Big Sky team left out of a 24-team playoff at 8-3, regardless of schedule.

At 7-4 we'd need a case. Either WIU turns out to be good (thats a quality win over a MVC team) or we beat another quality team on the schedule, such as EWU or um if they turn out to be good. OR the big sky does well in the Big Sky / MVC matchups, like 4-4 or 5-3. That makes the case for a strong conference, and thus, the case for 7-4 being playoff worthy.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by BleedingBLue » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:53 pm

91catAlum wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:31 pm
Good breakdown. But we dont need to present a case if we go 8-3. We're 100% in if we go 8-3. I dont think there's ever been a Big Sky team left out of a 24-team playoff at 8-3, regardless of schedule.

At 7-4 we'd need a case. Either WIU turns out to be good (thats a quality win over a MVC team) or we beat another quality team on the schedule, such as EWU or um if they turn out to be good. OR the big sky does well in the Big Sky / MVC matchups, like 4-4 or 5-3. That makes the case for a strong conference, and thus, the case for 7-4 being playoff worthy.
I think you are right. Brian M from Hero sports mentioned in one of the podcasts that the BSC could get 5 this year depending on the challenge games and at large bids from conferences that usually only get the conference winner into the playoffs. I think 7-4 gets us in no matter what if WIU ends up having a solid season. Because that will most likely mean we will have beaten at least 2 of EWU, Weber, Idaho and the Griz. Plus I expect NC to have a decent year and be a above average win. They played a close game against a good Mcneese team last week.



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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by Halfcat » Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:55 pm

I think a lot about a 7-4 argument gets settled today. We don't have to win, but we can't get blown out.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by Catprint » Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:19 pm

Always room for clarification and some stats:

1) This post lays out the path to get to 8-3. I agree 8-3 gets the Cats in the playoffs
2) My “case” for the playoffs is really directed at a 7-4 record where we end up in 4th in the Big Sky.
3) Last year the Big Sky had three 7-4 teams (EWU, UM, Sac) that did NOT get in the playoffs. There were numerous other 7-4 FCS teams that did not make the playoffs last year. In the last three years 6 Big Sky teams with 7-4 records did not make the playoffs. I do not see how we can say 7-4 will get us a playoff berth.
4) There is no history recent history where the Big Sky has received 5 bids to the playoffs. We have received only 3 or 4. The CAA could get 5 or 6 this year. The MFVC could get 5. This is a total of 9 of the 14 at large bids. That only leaves 5 bids for ALL other leagues. The odds of the Big Sky getting 4 of those 5 remaining bids is extremely small from a mathematical perspective. Of course, the CAA or MVFC teams could do poorly this year. But all we have is past history to guide us. There are numerous articles and posts on why the Big Sky has difficulty getting 5 teams into the playoffs.
Last 5 years of BIG SKY Playoff Teams
a. 2017 – 3
b. 2016 – 4
c. 2015 – 3
d. 2014 – 3
e. 2013 – 4



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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by CodyCat » Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:04 pm

This thread is comical now...


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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by BelgradeBobcat » Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:12 pm

No Jabarri Johnson. No Chris Murray. No Troy Andersen. Obviously we have a poor offensive line. Our defense is an upgrade from terrible-but still not very good. This team isn't going to the playoffs. Choate looking at 3 losing seasons in a row.



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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by Camo_Cat » Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:16 pm

BelgradeBobcat wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:12 pm
No Jabarri Johnson. No Chris Murray. No Troy Andersen. Obviously we have a poor offensive line. Our defense is an upgrade from terrible-but still not very good. This team isn't going to the playoffs. Choate looking at 3 losing seasons in a row.
We don't appear to be making any strides right now. Could be a long season. I love the Cats abd bleed blue and gold, but this team is far from playoff caliber. Not saying it can't happen, but and incredible turn around is gonna have to take place.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by coloradocat » Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:27 pm

Halfcat wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:55 pm
I think a lot about a 7-4 argument gets settled today. We don't have to win, but we can't get blown out.
We got blown out. Gotta go 8-3 now.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by 083190 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:29 pm

Playoffs? ......….Whatchu talkin' bout playoffs? .........Playoffs?



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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by Halfcat » Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:47 pm

coloradocat wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:27 pm
Halfcat wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:55 pm
I think a lot about a 7-4 argument gets settled today. We don't have to win, but we can't get blown out.
We got blown out. Gotta go 8-3 now.
Yup 8-3. I still think we do it, or go one better.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by GoldstoneCat » Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:50 pm

Jim Mora clip anybody? Sums up my feelings exactly.



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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by Catprint » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:01 pm

Week 2 –

Ok, I said hope springs eternal. It still does. I realize many think this discussion is premature and it may die a natural death. The thread is more about where we want to be - realistic or no - and what needs to happen on game day. Since Cats were predicted to lose, I will take the middle of the road between the gloom and doom crowd who say the season is over and the happy go lucky who say we will be fine. I think the Cats took a serious backward step to demonstrate they are a playoff caliber team. That was quite a bruising on Saturday and there are many offensive questions. Granted, TA was hurt and we had a freshman quarterback and the dropped passes but..23 carries for 29 yards is likely one of the worst running game performances in many, years, maybe a decade or more. However, it is early. I suggest we need strong victories the next two weeks to climb up in the rankings and in the view of the committee. After next week, I will evaluate where we sit among other Big Sky teams vying for potential playoff spots assuming we win. But there are lots of strong BIg Sky teams!

DATE...........GAME........Resulted Needed.................................Record...........Comment/Actual Result
Week 1.........WIU..........Win at Home......................................1-0................Won a close one
Week 2.........SDSU.........Loss is ok but not a blowout...................1-1.................
Ok, it was a blowout. How badly does it hard our chances? I would agree it makes 7-4 not a likely success story. and maybe a preview of the future?
Week 3.........Wagner.......Strong win........................................2-1
Week 4.........PSU...........Win – stronger is better.........................3-1
Week 5.........EWU..........Loss - We have to win 1 of 2-UI or EW........3-2
Week 6.........UI.............Win – Hope Idaho is not a patsy................4-2
Week 7.........OPEN
Week 8.........Weber........Win this or UM – loss here......................4-3
Week 9.........ISU............Win................................................5-3
Week 10.......CalPoly........Big Win............................................6-3
Week 11.......NCU...........Big Win............................................7-3
Week 12.......UM.............Win................................................8-3



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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by onceacat » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:01 pm

Nothings really changed. 8-3, we are in, 7-4 we might have a shot IF WIU is a playoff team. If WIU misses the playoffs, its really possible we don't have a win over a team with a winning record. Remember, Idaho got destroyed by Fresno in Week 1, which shouldn't have happened if they are any good.

7-4 means we have losses to EWU & Weber, both of whom could be playoff teams, nothing to be embarrassed about there.

But does anyone think Idaho is a lock for a winning record? How about UM? Maybe, maybe not. Heck, even WIU isn't a lock for a winning record at this point.

Guess I'm just saying that its in the realm of possible that at 7-4, we don't have a win against a team with a winning record. We got the benefit of the doubt back in the day, but not after 3 years of losing records.



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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by catbooster » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:23 am

Regardless of who the wins/losses are against, it would be a very unusual year for an 8-3 team from the Big Sky to not make the playoffs. And a Big Sky team at 7-4 will be in the conversation. At 7-4, the odds depend on what is happening across the entire FCS - are some of the "weaker" conferences going to have someone with a gaudy record in 2nd place that takes an at-large berth? How's the MVFC shaping up? The CAA?



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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by DriscollCat » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:32 am

onceacat wrote:
Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:01 pm
Nothings really changed. 8-3, we are in, 7-4 we might have a shot IF WIU is a playoff team. If WIU misses the playoffs, its really possible we don't have a win over a team with a winning record. Remember, Idaho got destroyed by Fresno in Week 1, which shouldn't have happened if they are any good.

7-4 means we have losses to EWU & Weber, both of whom could be playoff teams, nothing to be embarrassed about there.

But does anyone think Idaho is a lock for a winning record? How about UM? Maybe, maybe not. Heck, even WIU isn't a lock for a winning record at this point.

Guess I'm just saying that its in the realm of possible that at 7-4, we don't have a win against a team with a winning record. We got the benefit of the doubt back in the day, but not after 3 years of losing records.
Along that vein: Does it help us if um wins against WIU? Is it better if WIU wins? If the griz win, it will be another win for the BSC against the MVFC, but starting the season 3-0 for WIU could (probably would) mean a losing season and that win is no longer a quality win, so we would need another. If um wins this weekend, does our playoff bid come down to Cat/griz?



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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by 91catAlum » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:44 am

DriscollCat wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:32 am
onceacat wrote:
Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:01 pm
Nothings really changed. 8-3, we are in, 7-4 we might have a shot IF WIU is a playoff team. If WIU misses the playoffs, its really possible we don't have a win over a team with a winning record. Remember, Idaho got destroyed by Fresno in Week 1, which shouldn't have happened if they are any good.

7-4 means we have losses to EWU & Weber, both of whom could be playoff teams, nothing to be embarrassed about there.

But does anyone think Idaho is a lock for a winning record? How about UM? Maybe, maybe not. Heck, even WIU isn't a lock for a winning record at this point.

Guess I'm just saying that its in the realm of possible that at 7-4, we don't have a win against a team with a winning record. We got the benefit of the doubt back in the day, but not after 3 years of losing records.
Along that vein: Does it help us if um wins against WIU? Is it better if WIU wins? If the griz win, it will be another win for the BSC against the MVFC, but starting the season 3-0 for WIU could (probably would) mean a losing season and that win is no longer a quality win, so we would need another. If um wins this weekend, does our playoff bid come down to Cat/griz?
Ya that's an interesting conundrum... If WIU wins, it helps our strength of schedule. If um wins, it hurts our schedule strength, but helps the overall conference strength, thus increasing the possibility that the Big Sky gets at least 4 teams in the playoffs.

I think I'll still root against the griz, just because I'm already tired of listening to their lippy fans this week, after their huge victory over a non-scholarship team who they struggled with for 3 quarters and couldn't block.


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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by ilovethecats » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:53 am

91catAlum wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:44 am
DriscollCat wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:32 am
onceacat wrote:
Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:01 pm
Nothings really changed. 8-3, we are in, 7-4 we might have a shot IF WIU is a playoff team. If WIU misses the playoffs, its really possible we don't have a win over a team with a winning record. Remember, Idaho got destroyed by Fresno in Week 1, which shouldn't have happened if they are any good.

7-4 means we have losses to EWU & Weber, both of whom could be playoff teams, nothing to be embarrassed about there.

But does anyone think Idaho is a lock for a winning record? How about UM? Maybe, maybe not. Heck, even WIU isn't a lock for a winning record at this point.

Guess I'm just saying that its in the realm of possible that at 7-4, we don't have a win against a team with a winning record. We got the benefit of the doubt back in the day, but not after 3 years of losing records.
Along that vein: Does it help us if um wins against WIU? Is it better if WIU wins? If the griz win, it will be another win for the BSC against the MVFC, but starting the season 3-0 for WIU could (probably would) mean a losing season and that win is no longer a quality win, so we would need another. If um wins this weekend, does our playoff bid come down to Cat/griz?
Ya that's an interesting conundrum... If WIU wins, it helps our strength of schedule. If um wins, it hurts our schedule strength, but helps the overall conference strength, thus increasing the possibility that the Big Sky gets at least 4 teams in the playoffs.

I think I'll still root against the griz, just because I'm already tired of listening to their lippy fans this week, after their huge victory over a non-scholarship team who they struggled with for 3 quarters and couldn't block.
=D^ :lol:



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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by DriscollCat » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:54 am

91catAlum wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:44 am
DriscollCat wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:32 am
onceacat wrote:
Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:01 pm
Nothings really changed. 8-3, we are in, 7-4 we might have a shot IF WIU is a playoff team. If WIU misses the playoffs, its really possible we don't have a win over a team with a winning record. Remember, Idaho got destroyed by Fresno in Week 1, which shouldn't have happened if they are any good.

7-4 means we have losses to EWU & Weber, both of whom could be playoff teams, nothing to be embarrassed about there.

But does anyone think Idaho is a lock for a winning record? How about UM? Maybe, maybe not. Heck, even WIU isn't a lock for a winning record at this point.

Guess I'm just saying that its in the realm of possible that at 7-4, we don't have a win against a team with a winning record. We got the benefit of the doubt back in the day, but not after 3 years of losing records.
Along that vein: Does it help us if um wins against WIU? Is it better if WIU wins? If the griz win, it will be another win for the BSC against the MVFC, but starting the season 3-0 for WIU could (probably would) mean a losing season and that win is no longer a quality win, so we would need another. If um wins this weekend, does our playoff bid come down to Cat/griz?
Ya that's an interesting conundrum... If WIU wins, it helps our strength of schedule. If um wins, it hurts our schedule strength, but helps the overall conference strength, thus increasing the possibility that the Big Sky gets at least 4 teams in the playoffs.

I think I'll still root against the griz, just because I'm already tired of listening to their lippy fans this week, after their huge victory over a non-scholarship team who they struggled with for 3 quarters and couldn't block.
Yeah, I can't bring myself to root for those guys.



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Re: Path to the Playoffs

Post by technoCat » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:15 am

Having WIU win out and UM win every game besides that and us, is probably our best scenario for SoS. WIU would have won the MVFC at that point and UM would be at the top of the BSC.

Or we could just win out and not worry about it... ;-)


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