lutecat wrote:And if you as a qb complete less than half your passes in football you can be....unemployed or Colin Kapernick.... or if you are a coach who's team's red zone % is less then half you can be laughed out of your profession.BLACKnBLUEnGOLD wrote:Don't take this personally, but you put all six guys from 2016 on the good list, and only two have actually played. How many of the guys who ended up on their years' bad lists looked poised to "compete for a spot" at some point? The numbers for California are really 14/31, with four guys too soon to tell.VimSince03 wrote:California recruiting since 2011: viewtopic.php?f=20&t=37323
Texas recruiting since 2011: viewtopic.php?f=20&t=37324
I also wonder if teams are really expected to score a "hit" on half their recruits. It seems intuitive that if you're unsuccessful more often than not, that's bad, but that's not always the case. If you miss more than half your shots in basketball, you can still be Tyler Hall. If you get out more often than you get a hit in baseball, you can still be Mike Trout. Football teams put a lot of guys on the roster, but only about a quarter of them are the starters. Another ten to twelve are key backups who make big positive contributions to the team without being starters, although most of those guys seem to go on to become starters eventually rather than peaking as key backups. That means, at any given time, a huge fraction of the roster consists of guys who either don't play at all, or can't play well enough to make a positive impact. Some of those guys get better, but certainly a lot of them quit or don't improve.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk
You only get 63 scholarships, and 85 roster spots. Assuming you need to go 2 deep at every position, plus another dozen guys to split between 4 special teams units, you pretty much need 50 contributors. About 12 of your schollies are going to players who are redshirting, and you have another 12 who are RS frosh that usually aren't going to be great contributors. So, at the end of the day, you are trying to build a 50 guy "contributing" roster out of 36-40 full scholarships & some walk ons...
If you miss on 50% of your out of staters, thats going to put you in a deep hole. You are going to be playing redshirts, "burning" redshirts on special teams, or depending on walk-ons to make up a big portion of your contributors. When top tier recruits get hurt (Wyatt Christiansen or Blake Braun) it really hurts. At least when guys can't make grades, like Prevost (I thought he was better on film than Marino) and WaWa, you can still give the scholarship to the next guy. Its really hard to justify yanking a scholarship from a kid like Christiansen over injuries.
Thats part of the advantage I keep harping on about EWU: I'm willing to bet a half scholarship plus in-state tuition at EWU is a better financial deal for a Washington recruit than a full ride to UM or MSU. They can cast a much wider net and cull out the guys who can't make grades, have attitude problems, lose desire, don't develop, etc...