Sam Herder on The Game

[Grizfan7]

I don't think Herder knows much about football (but he talks to a lot of people and get a lot of info). Also, when he picks UM, UM often loses. My comments in brackets.

"No. 4 Montana State at No. 3 Montana

A slobberknocker is in store as the brawl sees its stakes at an all-time high.

Montana State’s No. 2 FCS rushing offense (302.1 YPG) squares up against Montana’s No. 4 rushing defense (84.8 YPG). MSU gashed the Grizzlies last season to the tune of 439 yards on the ground in a 55-21 win. One could argue the 2023 rushing attack is even better with a loaded RB room and QBs Tommy Mellott and Sean Chambers doing their thing behind an elite o-line. One could also argue that, despite not having as much star power, the 2023 version of Montana’s defense is better than the 2022 version. [The D is very good this year and playing very well. The D has not had 3 of its top 4 d-lineman all season, but has overcome most of that deficiency. It would be nice to have another elite corner, like Hicks Onu. And a starting corner is not listed on the depth chart again this week (injury).]

The momentum Montana brings into this game is real. After a sluggish September, the Griz seem to be getting better every week. Clifton McDowell has gone from settling the QB position with fine play, to being a QB who can hurt you with his legs and complete the easier reads passing, to now being an absolute playmaker with his legs, scrambling ability, and making more impressive throws. [I would like to believe this, but I'm still a bit hesitant.]

Combine that with some veteran players in the front seven defensively like Alex Gubner, Braxton Hill, and Levi Janacaro who won’t want a repeat of last year, a Bobby Hauck-led squad playing with an edge, and an unglued home crowd feeding energy into the team, and Montana comes out on top.

Prediction: Montana 30-28"

[Grizfan7]

This is obviously a big game, but it's not one where the loser will be done and not make the playoffs. Both teams would obviously like a 2/3 seed to avoid SDSU in the semis on the road. Seeds 4, 5, and 8 get the SDSU side. There may be a bit more pressure on the Cats, as a significant loss could knock them out of a seed, I've read. I assume the Cats would be seeded even with a loss. Personally, I'd rather not see another Cat-Griz game before Frisco. Those 2 teams should be able to focus on the beating the rest of the field first.

[Rich K]

Knock this crap off. You don't need a new thread for every pretend topic that crosses your mind.

[catatac]

This is obviously a big game, but it's not one where the loser will be done and not make the playoffs. Both teams would obviously like a 2/3 seed to avoid SDSU in the semis on the road. Seeds 4, 5, and 8 get the SDSU side. There may be a bit more pressure on the Cats, as a significant loss could knock them out of a seed, I've read. I assume the Cats would be seeded even with a loss. Personally, I'd rather not see another Cat-Griz game before Frisco. Those 2 teams should be able to focus on the beating the rest of the field first.

I agree with almost all of this. Although I would argue there might be a bit more pressure on UM for this game in terms of playoff seeding. The reason I say that is because everything I've read says if the Griz lose, they'll still end up #4 or #5 whereas if the Cats lose they're likely #6 or #7. Avoiding having to travel to SDSU is the absolutely most important factor here.

[Grizfan7]

This is obviously a big game, but it's not one where the loser will be done and not make the playoffs. Both teams would obviously like a 2/3 seed to avoid SDSU in the semis on the road. Seeds 4, 5, and 8 get the SDSU side. There may be a bit more pressure on the Cats, as a significant loss could knock them out of a seed, I've read. I assume the Cats would be seeded even with a loss. Personally, I'd rather not see another Cat-Griz game before Frisco. Those 2 teams should be able to focus on the beating the rest of the field first.

I agree with almost all of this. Although I would argue there might be a bit more pressure on UM for this game in terms of playoff seeding. The reason I say that is because everything I've read says if the Griz lose, they'll still end up #4 or #5 whereas if the Cats lose they're likely #6 or #7. Avoiding having to travel to SDSU is the absolutely most important factor here.

Yes, I agree with your point and had thought of that too.

[Grizfan7]

Haley picks Cats. I was wrong earlier when I said that Herder jinxes UM when he picks them, which is not often. It's Haley who jinxes UM. I feel better now.

"Big Sky: No. 4 Montana State (8-2, 6-1) at No. 3 Montana (9-1, 6-1)

FedEx Ground FCS Game of the Week

Kickoff: 2 p.m. (ESPN+/Scripps/Montana TV Network)

Notable: Cat/Griz, aka “The Brawl of the Wild,” is the fiercest rivalry among FCS fan bases, and this year’s 122nd meeting marks the first with both teams ranked in the FCS top-5, and will provide an outright Big Sky championship and surely a No. 2 or 3 seed in the playoffs. UM holds a 73-42-5 series lead, having vacated its 2011 win due to NCAA sanctions. MSU, with quarterbacks Sean Chambers (23 total touchdowns) and Tommy Mellott (10) at the controls, often steamrolls opponents, ranking No. 1 in the FCS in points per game (43. and No. 2 in rushing yards per game (302.5) and total offensive yards per game (489.5). UM ranks No. 1 in the Big Sky and No. 4 in the FCS in both fewest rushing yards (84. and points (15.2) allowed per game, led by linebacker Braxton Hill (83 tackles, three takeaways). Notably, the Griz have taken off under QB Clifton McDowell, who’s 6-0 as a starter.

The Pick: Montana State"

[The Butcher]

I recall the considerable excitement surrounding the Griz defense last year. It seems that the expectations may have been a bit inflated. I'm interested to see if the run defense can effectively contain the Cats to under 400 yards rushing this year; however, it certainly won't be an easy task as proven in 2022.

[Grizfan7]

I recall the considerable excitement surrounding the Griz defense last year. It seems that the expectations may have been a bit inflated. I'm interested to see if the run defense can effectively contain the Cats to under 400 yards rushing this year; however, it certainly won't be an easy task as proven in 2022.

I agree with your point. However, UM coaches admitted that they didn't have the right scheme (which was a huge problem) and it was clear watching the game and the tape, and at QB Club, that multiple D players made multiple mistakes. I don't see the Cats getting anywhere close to 400 yards on the ground. Some in Griz land speculate that UM will focus on the run and push MSU to pass. I have no clue what UM will do, but the scheme will be better, hopefully much better, and the players will be better prepared, and hopefully much better prepared.

If I were a Cat fan, I wouldn't rely on the "we ran all over them last year, so we will do that again this year" argument. Also, I would call your attention to 2021 too. The Cats didn't run all over the Griz that year.

[The Butcher]

I recall the considerable excitement surrounding the Griz defense last year. It seems that the expectations may have been a bit inflated. I'm interested to see if the run defense can effectively contain the Cats to under 400 yards rushing this year; however, it certainly won't be an easy task as proven in 2022.

I agree with your point. However, UM coaches admitted that they didn't have the right scheme (which was a huge problem) and it was clear watching the game and the tape, and at QB Club, that multiple D players made multiple mistakes. I don't see the Cats getting anywhere close to 400 yards on the ground. Some in Griz land speculate that UM will focus on the run and push MSU to pass. I have no clue what UM will do, but the scheme will be better, hopefully much better, and the players will be better prepared, and hopefully much better prepared.

If I were a Cat fan, I wouldn't rely on the "we ran all over them last year, so we will do that again this year" argument. Also, I would call your attention to 2021 too. The Cats didn't run all over the Griz that year.

2018 and 2019 the Cats sure ran all over the griz (nearly 400 yards in 2019).

But again, maybe the griz highly touted defense is actually as good as griz fans think this year, unlike 2022 when they were gashed.

[catatac]

I recall the considerable excitement surrounding the Griz defense last year. It seems that the expectations may have been a bit inflated. I'm interested to see if the run defense can effectively contain the Cats to under 400 yards rushing this year; however, it certainly won't be an easy task as proven in 2022.

I agree with your point. However, UM coaches admitted that they didn't have the right scheme (which was a huge problem) and it was clear watching the game and the tape, and at QB Club, that multiple D players made multiple mistakes. I don't see the Cats getting anywhere close to 400 yards on the ground. Some in Griz land speculate that UM will focus on the run and push MSU to pass. I have no clue what UM will do, but the scheme will be better, hopefully much better, and the players will be better prepared, and hopefully much better prepared.

If I were a Cat fan, I wouldn't rely on the "we ran all over them last year, so we will do that again this year" argument. Also, I would call your attention to 2021 too. The Cats didn't run all over the Griz that year.

How in the hell did Bobby allow a team to head into Bobcat Stadium that unprepared? He's been doing this a looong time. That would concern me. And before you counter and say well Vigen was unprepared in his first game in Missoula... apples and oranges.

[catatac]

I recall the considerable excitement surrounding the Griz defense last year. It seems that the expectations may have been a bit inflated. I'm interested to see if the run defense can effectively contain the Cats to under 400 yards rushing this year; however, it certainly won't be an easy task as proven in 2022.

I agree with your point. However, UM coaches admitted that they didn't have the right scheme (which was a huge problem) and it was clear watching the game and the tape, and at QB Club, that multiple D players made multiple mistakes. I don't see the Cats getting anywhere close to 400 yards on the ground. Some in Griz land speculate that UM will focus on the run and push MSU to pass. I have no clue what UM will do, but the scheme will be better, hopefully much better, and the players will be better prepared, and hopefully much better prepared.

If I were a Cat fan, I wouldn't rely on the "we ran all over them last year, so we will do that again this year" argument. Also, I would call your attention to 2021 too. The Cats didn't run all over the Griz that year.

How in the hell did Bobby allow a team to head into Bobcat Stadium that unprepared? He's been doing this a looong time. That was a massacre in the most important game of the year. That would concern me. And before you counter and say well Vigen was unprepared in his first game in Missoula... apples and oranges.

[Grizfan7]

I recall the considerable excitement surrounding the Griz defense last year. It seems that the expectations may have been a bit inflated. I'm interested to see if the run defense can effectively contain the Cats to under 400 yards rushing this year; however, it certainly won't be an easy task as proven in 2022.

I agree with your point. However, UM coaches admitted that they didn't have the right scheme (which was a huge problem) and it was clear watching the game and the tape, and at QB Club, that multiple D players made multiple mistakes. I don't see the Cats getting anywhere close to 400 yards on the ground. Some in Griz land speculate that UM will focus on the run and push MSU to pass. I have no clue what UM will do, but the scheme will be better, hopefully much better, and the players will be better prepared, and hopefully much better prepared.

If I were a Cat fan, I wouldn't rely on the "we ran all over them last year, so we will do that again this year" argument. Also, I would call your attention to 2021 too. The Cats didn't run all over the Griz that year.

How in the hell did Bobby allow a team to head into Bobcat Stadium that unprepared? He's been doing this a looong time. That was a massacre in the most important game of the year. That would concern me. And before you counter and say well Vigen was unprepared in his first game in Missoula... apples and oranges.

Was UM unprepared, or did MSU just have a great game and UM a bad game. I don’t know. No team has a great game, not even a good game, every week.

But good question. I would guess that UM was prepared, but MSU was better prepared and was the much tougher more physical team. And I know the UM had the wrong D scheme. The coaches said that later.

I suppose you could ask why Bobby trusted a DC who had been the DC of about a half dozen FBS schools including at least 3 PAC-12 schools.

In any event, my view is that last year’s game increases the chances that Bobby will have the team ready to go and with a better game plan this year.