1. Mayginnes is only missing starter, I believe. I expect him to play, but I don't know and my info is a week old. I thought you knew all about the Griz. Ha.tdub wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 1:52 pmI’m not one that has said the Cats have significantly more talent, so I won’t feed into that comment. There are clearly plenty of very good athletes on both teams. I really don’t care who you talk to. I talk to people too. I do understand how human communication works, but thanks for the explanation. I have played that game, a lot. And that’s a pretty big assumption that I don’t know much about the strengths and talents of UM.Grizfan7 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 11:14 amI don't recall saying that I didn't know much about the Cats, as opposed to some position groups. If I said that, then I amend to say that I do know a decent amount about the Cats overall. Mostly from talking to former and current Big Sky coaches and high school coaches. For example, if I happened to know something like Pflu, and talked to him from time to time, and we discussed Big Sky football, then I would learn something about Big Sky football. I would also ask how you can compare MSU's strength and talent to UM's, if you don't know much about UM's strength and talent? The "significant more talent" of MSU comment still hasn't been explained enough to me.tdub wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 12:47 amFor saying you know very little about the Cats team, you sure jump to conclusions pretty quick about comparing the Cats and gris. You asked is the Cats this year are better than last. Most of what I said was comparing seasons. In fact, I didn’t compare any MSU unit to a UM unit (like MSU D vs. UM D).Grizfan7 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 10:16 pmSee my comments embedded in brackets/bold above. Good info. Thx.tdub wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 5:28 pmI firmly believe this year’s MSU team is significantly better than 2022’s. Offense is significantly better and more dynamic. The 2’s and 3’s have played a lot of minutes later in games this season, including the 3rd QB in the entire 2nd half of EWU game. If the 1’s played the same percentage of snaps as last season, the on-paper numbers would jump even higher. They’ve played a much tougher schedule this year and still have improved statistically across the board. [MSU passing is better, with better accuracy and fewer picks. My limited observation makes me think the run game is a bit inconsistent. In some halves, or more, the run game hasn't been that good.] If averaging 300+ yards on the season and 7.5 per carry is an inconsistent run game, then I sure hope they keep that same inconsistency. I would have figured you knew that run games tend to get stronger as games go on, so some halves don’t look as good.
Defense across the board is much more sound and has given up very few big plays compared to last season. Front 4 continues to be the huge strength that drives the success of the defense. [I don't think the Cat D is great. UM D is better.] A) I didn’t say the Cats D was great. I said much mor sound than last year. B)What does UM’s D have to do with comparing 2022 Cats to this years Cats?
The depth overall is far superior this year as compared to last year. Which is good because it has been tested this year.
In the wins: there haven’t been any games that were really in doubt going into the 4th quarter. So they haven’t had that moment yet this year where they grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat. 2 chances to do so, but neither turned out well.
In the losses:
SDSU: I don’t feel MSU’s offense was nearly as dynamic then as it has evolved into throughout the season. I feel MSU across the board is about on par with SDSU and that game showed it. SDSU was without their top LB and WR, and MSU didn’t play even close to potential on offense (partially due to SDSU’s defense of course). I think a rematch would have a similar margin of score, no matter who wins. This game result was literally an inch and a replay review from going the other way.
Idaho: I think we saw a culmination of factors that led the Cats to a very sub-par performance. Went to SAC and had a late game, back to Bozeman early Sunday morning. Then winter storm hits and definitely affects practice that week. The right back on the road to 2nd top 5 game in a row, with Idaho coming off a bend two weeks of prep. Idaho earned the win, but MSU had a lot of non-game hurdles to overcome. But MSU still dang near pulled out a victory. [I call BS on the Cat "problems". A good team does let that affect them.] B.S.?? If you don’t think all that stuff doesn’t effect student athletes and can impact a game it’s been way too long since you played the game. And another good team having 2 weeks of prep vs. the other team with a weather-impacted week doesn’t also affect a game? These aren’t NFL professionals. They’re young men and and aren’t perfect machines. It’s not an excuse for losing the game, but part of the equation that made up a bad day for the Cats. I said Idaho earned the win. They game-planned very well, and the Cats played flat. There’s a difference between factors and excuses. The Cats didn’t overcome the factors.
I expect MSU defensively will game plan similar to Idaho, where they blitzed very little and left virtually no running lanes or roll outs or McCoy. They were very gap sound and it wasn’t until they had been on the field for damn near 40 minutes when they just wore down (see the other factors above). I think UM will find it very hard to run the ball. Their success will come in the quick passing game. MSU has tackled receivers well this year, with not much YAC given up. But I think this is the win/loss formula for the gris offense this week. Longer developing pass routes won’t work as MSU’s very good D-line should overpower an injury-riddled O-line for UM. [UM has tackled better this year than the Cats have.] What does that have to do with MSU’s defensive game plan and how I think the UM offense can succeed? And again, how do you know this if you don’t know much about the Cats?
On MSU offense: not much to discuss as this all hinges on MSU running the ball and effectively throwing off that and taking advantage of what a very aggressive downhill defense can leave open.
I think MSU wins this game, unless the gris get one or two early major momentum shifting plays that result in MSU being down a couple scores. That’s what UM feeds off of, as well as the crowd. Aside from that happening, I don’t see UM having the depth (like D-line rotation of 8-10 guys) to stay with MSU if it comes down to a 4th quarter game. UM absolutely has a path to win this game too, I’d just put the odds in MSU’s favor. [UM's d-line depth has gotten pretty good this season. UM lacks beef on the d-line, but it has some speed and fitness. The d-line problem has been that 3 of top 4 lineman have been out all or most of season. That hurt.]
3 or 4 guys out, hence current lack of depth. I’m friends with the Nuce family and was super bummed when Hank went down this year. Love that guy, great kid. But now they don’t have 8-10 guys that can effectively rotate without much drop off. Gubner doesn’t come off much. Even a stud like him can get worn down late. That’s why I’m saying if it comes down to a 4th quarter slugfest, advantage Cats.
But since you went there, my answers are in italics after your bolds.
1. The inconsistency of the run game is from half to half. Stats for a season don't show inconsistencies.
2. I will look at some Cat D stats that I think may be more important. MSU has lost 2 of its 3 toughest games, and only beat SS by 12 points.
3. If Mayginness comes back for the game, UM's o-line won't be injury-riddled.
4. The title of the thread is UM and MSU info. It is not limited to MSU. And threads evolve.
5. UM generally plays 3 down d-lineman. UM doesn't 8-10 d-lineman for depth. In any event, UM does rotate a number of d-linemen during games. Gubner plays a lot, and I assume there's drop off behind him because he is so good a disruptive.
6. If you Cats think MSU's D is better this year than last, that's good enough for me.
1. Like I said above, or course there isn’t total consistency half to half. Game plans evolve over the course of a game and most times rushing stats, especially when winning, in the first half and 2nd half are vastly different.
2. MSU was up 42-24 with 5 minutes left at Sac and most the 2’s were in at that time and gave up a late TD. Offense sputtered early and then came on strong. 3 score lead late on a top 10 team on the road (maybe top 5 at the time) is nothing to to scoff at.
3. Is Mayginness the only injured regular starter? I though there were more injuries. Was it his backup that went out on crutches against Sac?
4. I thought your injections of comparing were just odd and had absolutely nothing to do with what I said. I didn’t ever discuss which position groups were better. I discussed matchups this weekend I see. But that seems to be what you’re trying to do…get someone to bite on telling you why the Cats are “significantly more talented”, which is nothing but an unsubstantiated opinion as talent isn’t an objective quality. Most of your posts seem to take that tone. If you want to discuss matchups of this game, provide insight on where and how you think UM will (or MSU) find success, I’m in on that discussion. If it’s just about who’s more talented, then I’m out, as that’s a never-ending pissing match.
5. Yes, the 3-3-5 defense. My mistake, had the Cats 4-2-5 stuck on the brain when I wrote that. So 6-8 guys rotating without drop off. Do you think they still have that much quality depth with the injuries?
6. Glad we are on the same page.
Since you seem so hell bent on comparing strengths and talents, I’ll do this, my view of the matchups this weekend. But I won’t compare RB to RB, for example. It’s like comparing apples to broccoli. Both RB rooms would succeed in both offenses. There is no ground to compare, as RB production is typically a result of line play.
Key matchups I see, including why:
Cats O-line vs gris D-line. Most important matchup of the game in my view. If the Cats win this battle, they win the game as everything else launches from here. I think the rushing yards, avg per carry, lack of sacks, and point production all support that the Cats O-line is very, very good. The same metrics can be used for the gris D-line, making this on paper a good matchup. Where I see the Cats having the advantage is the UM d-line being undersized outside of Gubner. The gris are fast, but the Cats aren’t just big road graters that don’t move well. They move very well which is so important in a zone-based run game. And even though the gris run a 3-3-5 defense, it blocks more like a 3-4 where the key is getting the initial block and a d-lineman off their spot and getting to 2nd level to a LB/Safety. And that’s where the gris almost always succeed, using their speed and blitzing to get one guy free from the 2nd level. When it boils down to it, if the Cats handle the gris speed, Cats win. If not, then the gris can slow down MSU’s run game.
UM O-line vs Cats D-line. This one is tough to predict. The gris have been running well. But even just watching the PSU game, the Viks looked slow and consistently had bad run fits. Was the UM scheme or PSU lack of discipline the reason? Tough to tell. There has been inconsistency with the gris O-line this year. Some bad, some good. Definitely more good as of late. If they are down a starter or two, I give Cats D-line the advantage here. They have been rotating 8-10 guys all season and have consistently applied pressure with little/no blitz. Grebe is an absolute force off the edge. You’d be hard-pressed to find someone that goes harder than him whistle to whistle. Part of this matchup will hinge on if the zebras call much holding or not. My guess is they won’t call much, which all year holding Grebe seems to be the way he’s been slowed so I don’t expect anything different. If the refs are fast and loose on the line-play flags it could get interesting.
I not going to go into too much depth on skill position matchups because the vast majority of this game boils down to the lines. I think the gris WR are good. I’m impressed with them. RB’s are solid too, which is a product of the line play. I don’t fear McDowell and the QB run game much as the Cats have done a great job all year with containing the QB playmakers. Even though they lost to Idaho, they did a good job on McCoy. And they see a lot of QB runs all year long even out of season. Which is why I think the key to UM’s success is the short/intermediate pass game, and if they break some of those to big plays.
I’m expecting a good game. Both teams have multiple years of film and experience against each other, which closes the gap.
2. Which former coaches do you talk to regularly who know more about the Big Sky than Pflu? Just curious. Ha.
3. Some of the Cats have said over the fall that UM's would be the no. 6 back at MSU. I'm fine saying both sets of backs are good.
4. The UM backers are very good. I think the UM front 6/7 is better than the Cats'. In any event, the game is not the MSU o-line v. the UM d-line, in my view. Broader than that. If the UM backers get faked out even 1/3 as much as they did last year, the Cats will beat the Griz. My impression is that the UM D is not quite as aggressive to the ball (or where they think the ball is) as last season. I would emphasizing keeping Mellott open off the edge. He's good there, and he gets a lot of yards with his nice speed.
5. On running consistency, of course, games ebb and flow. However, if you can't pick up first downs in one half or the other, a team is likely to dig themselves a hole, or not be able to come back. UM had trouble picking up 3d/4th short last season. Lately, UM's run game has been showing up right away or earlier in the game. That's positive, but I don't know it's just several good games or more permanent.
6. Some of what I've tried to address are the extreme comments of some of the extreme Cats. Nothing you said. I agree, or almost agree, with almost everything you've said.
7. Short passing. I don't know if that's key to the game or not, but UM is pretty good at shorter passes. Both qb's. It would nice for UM to get Fontes back. If, as some said, he was just sick, that would be positive.
